Is China ensnared by President Xi Jinping’s unabashed power display? Part-2

Unlike Hu’s regime, Xi’s tenure is marked by slowing growth and brewing geopolitical tensions. The impact of slow economic growth, crippling restrictions on internet and free speech are making people restive. Xi strategically diverted public attention from economic slowdown by setting out a new vision of “resurrecting” and “reinvigorating” Chinese power under the neologism of “Chinese dream”. Months after assuming charge, Xi stressed on the need for patriotic education and establishment of think tanks to strengthen Chinese narrative with a renewed emphasis on Chinese victimization. Armed with twin strategies of instilling the paradigm of “without party there will be no New China” and reinforcing tighter controls on internet, Xi has adopted an assertive foreign policy. Setting the tone for his foreign policy, in his inaugural address stated that “no country should expect us to make a deal on our core interests and no country should expect us to swallow the bitter fruit that undermines our sovereignty, security and developmental interests”.

Gradually through provocative intimidation, challenging the status quo of the Asia-Pacific region and anomalous island building in the South China Sea, China brazenly contravened “Peaceful rise” strategy developed in 2003 by Zheng Bijian, a policy advisor. Hu, reframed the policy as “peace development” to reassure other countries of China’s ascendance. In a marked departure from “hiding one’s capabilities and biding time” (taoguang yuanghui) China is employing strategic and economic clout to advance its interests in the region. Xi powered this new approach by unveiling One Belt One Road (OBOR) and engaged with over 65 countries under the banner of promoting interconnectivity through infrastructure development. To challenge the Western hegemony and power his global ambitions, China established alternative multilateral financial institutes- Silk Road Infrastructure Fund, AIIB (Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank) and NDB (New Development Bank). With a promise of accelerating economic development through extended connectivity networks, China reached out to authoritarian regimes, strategically located, resource-rich small economies to promote OBOR. Through OBOR, believed to be several times America’s Marshall Plan (for rebuilding Europe after World War II), Xi aspired to replace America in the international order. As of now, OBOR, earned dubious acclaim as harbinger of “Debt trap diplomacy” claiming its first victim Sri Lanka. Colombo si reeling under debts for investing in economically unviable infrastructure projects. 

Xi accelerated pace of military modernization. He emphasized that China’s peaceful development will help in reclaiming its legitimate place and restrain regional countries from violating China’s interests in SCS. Under the umbrage of this perception, Xi began to encroach territorial features through land reclamation in SCS aggressively. Later Xi, subjectively changed the narrative of peaceful development with a precondition that “not only should China adhere to peaceful development road; but other countries must also commit themselves to peaceful development road”. Soon Beijing adopted an uncompromising stance on territorial disputes and established East China Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Proactive Xi, unlike his predecessors took an initiative to define bilateral relationship with America under the ‘new type of great power relationship’. Xi followed the ‘community under common destination’ approach advocated by Hu and fostered relations with Asian countries. Beneath the façade of the attractive slogans, overpowered by dream of Chinese rejuvenation, Beijing turned intensely belligerent. Xi refused to respect international rules and ruthlessly dismissed the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PAC) verdict with respect to Chinese claims in SCS. China began to intrude into the territorial waters of Japan, intimidate Vietnam, threaten Filipino men from fishing in their territorial waters. Through trade sanctions it punished South Korea for installing THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air Defence), imposed high tariffs on Mongolia and stalled plans of mega loan offer for hosting the Dalai Lama. Post Crimean annexation, when Russian economy crippled under the burden of West’s economic sanctions, China inked a $400 billion energy agreement and became its largest trade partner. As of now, China and Russia overriding historical rifts are trying to build solidarity through frequent high-level visits, joint military drills and collaborating on Afghan issue. Though trade agreement hasn’t cemented the relations which are by far more complicated to analyze, Russia and China are jointly challenging the retreating Western hegemony. 

Xi’s superfluous, dubious investments in South East Asian countries symptomatic of its coercive diplomacy is having a devastating effect on the solidarity of ASEAN, which emerged as a economic bulwark to stand up to China. Philippines which dragged China for laying claims to its Scarborough Island in 2012, has now changed its stance. President Duterte, has now meekly surrendered to China and even downplaying reports of creeping invasion of Sandy Cay (feature) close to Thitu Island. Simultaneously Xi is arming Taiwan, pressuring Latin American countries to severe their ties with Taipei. China rewarded Panama and reciprocated with trade agreement and investments for disengaging with Taiwan. Xi adamantly reneged on the promise of “One Country two systems” and crushed pro-democratic protests with iron hand in Hongkong. Now Xi had embarked on the mission of rewriting Korean history insisting that Korea was part of China. The overarching global ambitions of Xi might sooner than later can backfire on China.

In the meanwhile, Xi is capitalizing on the years of cumulative American neglect towards South East Asia dating back to fag end of President Obama tenure till now. The retreating American power has emboldened Xi whose coercive diplomacy is disrupting regional stability. Trump’s indifference has forced South East Asian nations to increasingly turn to China. Having coerced other neighbors into abject silence, Xi has is now threatening India which refused to tow in line with Middle Kingdom. China has effectively brought all South Asian neighbors of India except Bhutan into its orbit. India with is huge demographic appeal, rising middle class and huge market potential is now a potential competitor for China. Beijing perceives Indian rise inimical to China’s Asian Dream. Over the years, unresolved border disputes strained Indo-Chinese ties. China’s refusal perpetuated to accept the Mac Mohan line, its claims to Arunachal Pradesh and India providing asylum to the Dalai Lama & thousands of his followers post Tibetan annexation perpetuated the hostilities. After 1962 Indo-China war, in 1979, India re-commenced bilateral relations with China and initiated talks on border disputes in 1981, the regular leadership dialogue which began in 1988 has been a turning point. Since 1962 Chinese troops continued to transgress into Indian territories but with initiation of contacts in 1992 transgressions were peacefully managed.  Though India and China jointly defended interests of emerging economies at various multilateral fora, dissonances and negativities continued to escalate. Despite continually benefitting from expanding trade imbalances with India, China continues to back Pakistan on terrorism and bolsters it nuclear capabilities. Xi has been stalling India’s entry into nuclear regime NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group), providing safe havens to militants from north east, controlling water flows into India and vetoed Indian efforts at UN for imposing sanctions on Masood Azhar. Above all, Xi frenetically intensified encircling of India by expediting development of Strings of Pearls in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

China’s renewed enmity towards India currently stems from India’s refusal to be part of the BRI (Belt Road Initiative), Delhi’s growing closeness with US and for allowing the Dalai Lama to visit Arunachal Pradesh. Xi always had tough stance towards Tibet and Dalai Lama. As a presidential candidate in waiting, in 2011, speaking at Lhasa’s Potala Palace, on the eve of 60 years of Tibet’s peaceful liberation, Xi stated “we should thoroughly fight against separatist activities by the Dalai clique by firmly relying on all ethnic groups and completely smash any plot to destroy stability in Tibet and jeopardize national unity”. Irked by India’s defiance, despite Beijing’s appeals to cancel the Dalai Lama’s trip, China began to punish India, by stonewalling India’s NSG membership, extending veto on Azhar at UN, blocking a tributary of Brahmaputra flowing into India, inking pact with Pakistan to build six dams across Indus river in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). Beijing has also stopped sharing hydrological data since May 15^th despite two bilateral agreements (2013 and 2014) though India already paid for the data.  Now overflowing Brahmaputra waters flooded states of Assam, Bihar killing over 120 and inundated several hectares of standing crops.

BRI summit was held between 14-16 May and Indian absence triggered backlash from China. Now China set a precondition that it will refrain from sharing river water data until India withdraws troops from Doklam. Going by the sequence of events, it can be comprehende that entering Doklam under the pretext of road construction by Chinese troops has been a planned intrusion. Xi energetically fostered bilateral ties with India’s south Asian neighbors baring Bhutan. Now with prolonged stand-off at Doklam, a region claimed by Bhutan and strategically important for India, China is attempting to drive a wedge between India and Bhutan. China’s nefarious intentions gains more credence with its offer of $10 billion which includes low interest loans, grant and direct investment to Bhutan amidst Doklam stand-off. With BRICS summit just a fortnight away, China is making renewed efforts to woo Bhutan. Speculations are rife whether Prime Minister will attend BRICS Summit at Xiamen with deepening of mistrust between India and China. India is irked by China’s indifference towards resolving prolonged military standoff through peace negotiations and denial of river water data.

Interestingly, Doklam impasse has brought into fore shrouded facets of China into fore. With Xi’s characteristic coercive diplomacy failing to threaten India to withdraw its troops, China’s state-sponsored media unleashed a psychological war on India with a barrage of contemptuous and fallacious propaganda. In the meanwhile, North Korea’s unabated nuclear ambitions and its threats of targeting Guam island have caused intense consternation among American allies who called upon China to rein in on Pyongyang. Manifesting his contradictory standards, Xi called for a peaceful dialogue for negotiating North Korean issue while refused to settle Doklam issue similarly. President Xi Jinping’s impervious stance on issues ranging from international affairs, internal security, military stratagem, domestic affairs and censoring invariably exemplify his authoritarianism. Now, China mandated foreign companies to create special provisions for accommodating party members on board to overlook the governance in joint ventures. MNCs are even forced to allow Chinese investors to access their technology or risk losing market access. About 70% of 1.86 million Chinese private companies are affiliated to Communist Party. This implies that activities, operations, data of over 70% of Chinese investments abroad are controlled/monitored by the CPC (Communist Party of China) directly. Countries, especially India must be wary of growing Chinese investments with bilateral ties going south. Latest slew of constricting reforms might have deleterious effect on investments in China.

Conclusion

China is clambering for glory, prestige and power and seeking to occupy a pivotal place in the world order. By dispensing decades-old collective leadership, Xi strengthened his position as the Commander-in-Chief of China. He emerged as a powerful leader by consolidating his position within the party and over military. Diligently emulating Maoist ideals, and Marxist principles he has become “redder than red”. By characteristically exterminating opposition with strict anti-corruption campaign and overriding all limitations, he accumulated power by invoking nationalism. Sieging the vacuum created by American reluctance to engage with the World, Xi is steadily making claims to the top slot.

Amidst these far-reaching aspirations of Xi, factional feuds within Communist party of China are reaching a feverish pitch. Speculations abound that the high-handed censoring, internal fighting within the party, labor unrest, crackdown on opposition, widening rich and poor divide might eventually cause sudden disintegration like Soviet Union. Though strategists strongly contest such an ordeal for China but it might be exceedingly impossible for Xi to preserve total dominance of party over all aspects of governance and steer China as a forward state. Even China’s ugly meddling of geopolitics might have dangerous repercussions on long run. China’s over ambitious attempts to project power, mercantilist approach, efforts to sanitize history to bolster party rule, intransigent stance of its leaders might eventually force nations to join hands against China. China has been recklessly needling India, Japan and other South East Asian nations. America is haranguing China for its inaction in tackling North Korea and losing patience. With trade deficits snow-balling, China is emerging as a bigger threat to Trump administration forcing it to pull back investments and clamp imports from China. Hubris often led to tumbling of great empires. China might be no exception to this rule. Its time Xi must peg back its zealous global ambitious.