How will BJP’s unprecedented electoral triumph pan out for India?

Make no mistake, in democracy, a decisive and dominant leader is always rewarded. The unprecedented victory of BJP in India’s largest state has flabbergasted the political pundits and the opposition parties. Much before elections, media declared that the electoral verdicts would be a referendum on demonetization, had built tremendous momentum for the same. Though BJP busted the media predictions of electoral debacle by romping home victories in Chandigarh, Odisha, Maharashtra municipal elections, MSM chose to undermine the popular verdict. MSM inimitable grouse towards BJP is well known.  The landslide victory of BJP in assembly elections had proved naysayers, which largely included the media and political pundits wrong. They miserably failed to assess electoral acceptance of BJP. With abysmal poll predictions, their reputation and elitism touched a new low. Incidentally, BJP by winning the highest number of assembly seats in past four decades had not only made mockery of tendentious political pundits but reduced the opposition to smithereens. BJP won 3/4^th majority in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the heartland of the Hindi belt and performed exceedingly well in Manipur. In Goa, anti-incumbency and internal rifts had a toll on electoral outcome. Of the five poll bound states, BJP announced that it will form government in four states. But experts were skeptical about the party’s assertions.

By clinching a massive victory in the third year of power, Prime Minister Modi belied fabricated narratives of the media and emerged as a dominant leader. Unlike the intermittent outbursts of opposition leaders, Modi’s relentless pursuit towards development and enviable people connect made him popular among masses. While opposition tried to portray Modi government suit boot ki Sarkar, the poor had found new hope in Modi. Unprecedented acceptance of Modi and sweeping electoral mandate reflects the same. Right from early 1950’s power brokers had manufactured an identity which led to genesis of minority vote banks. Over the decades, these have become valuable assets to politicians who smartly milked the gains. On the other hand, the majority community was divided and voted along lines of caste, creed etc. This kind of identity politics and voting patterns thus perpetuated. In the current elections, the demarcations along various identities have smudged. BJP accused of polarizing communities is depicted as a Hindutva force. Its rise is projected as inclement to minorities. By analogy media predicted that BJP will voted out in Muslim majority areas. Muslims constitute 19% of voters in UP. Amit Shah was charged of marginalizing minorities for not having a single Muslim candidate in the list. But BJP swept polls in Deoband region and won 57 seats in areas with over 25% Muslim voters. Growing electoral support of Muslims towards BJP indicates that poverty is greatest leveler and that appeasement politics too have expiry date.

While media had scoffed at various initiatives of Prime Minister the fruits of schemes like Mudra yojana, Jan Dhan yojana, Ujjwala yojana, Suraksha Bhima Yojana, construction of toilets under Swacch Bharat Abhiyan, direct bank transfers are slowly transforming lives of the impoverished. Modi’s flagship program, Guru-Shishya parampara of paid training to unemployed Muslim youth seems to be catching up with the minorities. For decades, poverty alleviation had been a political rhetoric and delivery was a myth. The poor and aspirational class had finally found a leader in Modi who could deliver. The overwhelming majority in UP clearly reflects the same. This unconventional voting pattern in UP might pave way for decimation of vote-bank politics. Instead, majority consolidation and approval may begin to change the tide of the elections. Political parties which are now catering to interests of certain sections of society will be forced to change their course. With BJP, well ahead of the curve in this aspect, other parties have lot of catching up to do. The poor and aspirational class will no longer be swayed by empty promises. Development, good governance, transparency will be rewarded.

Development and poverty eradication often transcends caste barriers. BJP has won the confidence of aspirational class with promise of development. In the past seven decades, leaders have reinvented and extensively used the term poverty and appeasement for pocketing votes. By taking bold steps Modi has earned confidence of people. With promise of new hope and change, Modi have set new benchmarks. Challenges are much harder now. Partisan politics may no longer find takers. Opposition parties may find it harder to take on BJP if they fail to resonate with aspirations of people. Empowerment is becoming a buzz word and the young voters are yearning for a massive transformation. Consequently, parties lacking an inclusive, comprehensive vision may sooner or later hit a stumbling block. Politicians must reinvent and recalibrate their strategies to stay relevant for greater electoral mobilization.

Imbued with ideological commitment and armed with comprehensive vision for India, with time, BJP has mastered the social engineering. It quickly learnt lessons from poll debacles and being cadre-based party, dynasty proliferation was curtailed. Having nurtured and fired in ambition of building a strong nation, party workers are disciplined and ideologically uncompromising. Years of work at grass root levels have hardened the party workers. Hence opposition parties may not find it easy to break into the bastions of BJP. Till now BJP was treated as political pariah and was alienated by other parties on charges of being communal. Signifying the end of political alienation, political outfits in Goa and Manipur reposed faith in BJP paving way for formation of government in both states headed by BJP.  By staking claims for formation of government in Goa and Manipur BJP has exuded new found political assertiveness.

With massive electoral mandate comes huge responsibility. The new BJP government in UP must gear up for the uphill task of fulfilling expectations and aspirations of the electorate. It must act on excruciating issues of eradicating corruption, restoring law and order situation, carrying out extensive combing operations to cull out anti-national elements (in the wake of latest IS threat to India, with operating dens in IS) and evolving a strategy to fulfill the aspirations marginalized sections of society. With over 3/4^th majority at its disposal government should diligently construct a frame work for uniform civil code, endeavor to bring the disputed Ramajanmabhoomi issue to logical conclusion and take firm stance on triple talaq. Large number of young Muslim women voted for BJP for its stand on triple talaq.

With BJP’s formidable win Modi now appears to be politically unassailable. This will have greater implications on India’s foreign policy. Modi’s political strength might help in dealings with neighboring countries bestowing him greater authority to take strategic decisions crucial for India’s security. These massive electoral verdicts will eventually help Modi government to have greater bargaining power in Presidential elections. Projects like electrification of villages, improving power supply and distribution of free LPG connections to poor households can be expedited in UP.

Addressing the party supporters after the spectacular victory, Modi called for inclusivity and made a fervent appeal for “building a new India” by 2022 marking the 75^th anniversary of India’s Independence. Earlier in the day he launched an app “ÏamnewIndia” urging the youth to take a pledge of building the India which will make leaders like Mahatma Gandhi, Sardar Patel and Babasaheb Ambedkar proud. Undeniably, Modi’s relentless efforts to usher India into a new realm and the unflinching commitment to work towards development of country is slowly catching up with people. Time and again, media and opposition sneered and scoffed at Modi’s vision of governance, made mockery of initiatives like Swacch Bharat Abhiyan. Following the unprecedented electoral victory, leaders like Chidambaram, Nitish Kumar are acknowledging Modi as a dominant leader and crediting demonetization respectively. Now political pundits and politician Omar Abdullah are calling General elections of 2019 in favour of Modi. As of now, 60% of Indian population in BJP with its allies ruled states, almost seven times more than Congress and its allies ruled states. By 2019, BJP will slowly expand and penetrate into regions emerging as a pan-Indian party. 

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