North Korea has now successfully tested its rocket engine and
inching closer to development of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICMB).
North Korea’s missile testing spree is speeding up and portending immense danger
for the security of the region. Over 20 years of international sanctions have
failed to bring DPRK onto the path of denuclearization. DPRK’s burgeoning
assertiveness and relentless nuclear buildup is now cause of intense
consternation. The heat of situation is more critically felt by South Korea.
The twin-Korean Republic capitals are 120 miles away and this alarming nuclear
arsenal development prompts deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area
Defense System) in South Korea to intercept any incoming missile. The installation
of THAAD is critically objected by China.
North Korea had been now the front runner of international
headlines for its unprecedented number of missiles launches and nuclear tests
since last year. While nations are struggling to conclusively figure out a
solution to tame DPRK, the infamous assassination of Kim Jong Nam, half-brother
of Kim Jong Un in Malaysia on Feb 13th with a proscribed nerve agent
VX further stoked new fears. This event has taken away international attention from
the launch of a solid-fueled Pukguksong-2 (North Star-2) capable of hitting the
US bases in Okinawa and Guam on Feb 12th. This attempt was a front
runner to Scud missiles launched on Mar 7th. Use of VX nerve agent
had indeed startled the international community forcing it scrutinize UN report
that warned of the unabated nuclear proliferation activity of DPRK. According
to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, DPRK has the third largest stockpile of
chemical weapons. DPRK is one of six countries which refused to sign the
Chemical Weapons Convention of the UN passed in 2006 following its underground
nuclear test. While it signed the Geneva Protocol that prohibits used of
chemical weapons, it doesn’t prevent the country from producing and
accumulating the stockpile. It is believed to have 2500 to 5000 tons of CW
agents and capable of producing nerve agents like Sarin and VX. Reports suggest
that China and Malaysia exported the chemicals to manufacture CW. For long
nations simply ignored the threat since DPRK was reeling under threat and hence
their ability to produce CW might have been hampered. But the use of nerve
agent VX for assassination has ignited fresh suspicions. DPRK had supplied CW
to Syria. In 2009, Greece has intercepted North Korean vessels carrying CW
heading towards Syria. North Korea has technology to deploy CW with field
artillery, FROG rockets, Scud and Nodong Missiles and now it is developing
aiming at ballistic missile delivery.
DPRK irked by the joint military operation of South Korea and
US and THAAD installation on March 7th as a show of strength launched four
Scud-missiles that landed in the exclusive economic zone of Japan. Post-launch,
DPRK announced that “situation is already on the brink of nuclear war” and
confirmed that these missiles were tasked to hit the US bases in Japan. The
launches came at a time when Trump in a twitter post indicated that ICBM
testing will not happen. Indeed, North
East Asian region had never been so dangerously posited as now.
The assassination besides ruining the diplomatic relations
between North Korea and Malaysia had earned the rebuke of China. China with an
immediate effect, in accordance to UNSC Resolution of 2321 imposed sanctions on
importing coal for the rest of the year. Till now China refrained from imposing
sanctions on DPRK despite international pressure and terminated purchases after
assassination as it offered protection to Kim Jong Nam in Macau. It is widely
known that besides, Pakistan, China had the most reliable ally in DPRK and
stalling of imports drew lot of attention. The depth of China’s engagement with
DPRK is very illustrious and Beijing incessantly uses it leverage with DPRK against
US. Calling off imports from DPRK has dimensions to it. An economic report
illustrated that China stalled imports from DPRK, since the previous year it had
imported record high supplies of coal and facing glut. Also, China, ROK and US
tamed Kim Jong Nam, a plausible claimant to DRPK throne to obtain insider
report of Pyongyang. Hence his unexpected assassination had dented the
objectives of these three countries.
Now, it would be pertinent to analyze DPRK’s close ties with
China that strengthened after the Korean war of 1948. With ideology driving the
bilateral ties, Kim II Song, the founding father of DPRK and later his son Kim
Jong II always held China in very high regard. DPRK with its rich reserves of
iron ore, coal, magnesite, bauxite, copper, zinc, and other minerals became
dearer to China. Until the death of Kim Jong II in 2011, bilateral ties flourished
and prospered. Kim Jong Un, who clinched the reins soon turned dictatorial,
aspired to break the glitch of being the client state of China. Unlike his
predecessors who embarked on state visits to China regularly, Kim Jong Un
refused to visit to Beijing. He pursued a “de-Sinification” program and
executed Jang Song Thaek, for his close links with Beijing. He was at a higher
position in hierarchy and mentor of Kim Jong Nam in 2013. He was accused of
abusing power and underselling resources to China. Killing of Kim Jong Nam
exemplifies, Un’s efforts to consolidate his unequivocal authority on the
regime and to exterminate all challengers to his power.
China is embittered with DPRK, but is left with no options.
Beijing aspires to keep DPRK under its strangle hold vanquishing all chances of
reunification of North and South Korea. China views a resurgent Korea in
alliance with US as a threat to its inimitable rise. Geostrategist Brahma
Chellaney, opined that “for centuries, China has seen the Korean peninsula as
its strategic Achilles Heel-a region that offers foreign powers an attractive
invasion route or a beachhead for attacking China”. China has an unresolved
border dispute with DPRK and believes that a unified Korea might rally against
China harder. Territorial dispute is about certain islands in Yalu and Tumen
rivers and centered on Chongji, where a 33-km stretch of the boundary is
unsettled. To fortify its territorial claims on North Korea, it is making
dubious claims and attempting to rewrite history stating that ancient Kingdom
of Koguryo founded on Tongge river basin of North Korean is Chinese, not
Korean. Kim Jong Un miffed by Chinese high-handedness is wriggling hard to come
out its fold. It is seeking talks with Washington. But the eight-yearlong regime
of President Obama grossly misread the situation and intensified sanctions.
Sanctions crippled DPRK’s development and shunning of diplomatic engagement
propelled Pyongyang’s single-minded pursuit of advancing missile systems and
nuclear weapons development process. Now the hastened THAAD deployment in South
Korea to protect it against medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles
had further deteriorated the vulnerable stability of the region. While the
indispensability of THAAD is still an issue of larger debate as it is untested,
talks of its installation is brewing trouble in the region.
THAAD deployment by the US in South Korea to protect its ally
was viewed with suspicion. As the X-band radar of THAAD with a range of over
2000km can keep a watch on China and detect its missiles in flight. So, China
is vainly persuading the US from deploying THAAD. On the other hand, China’s
relations with ROK have touched a new low. China is instigating protests, stirring
up anti-American sentiments in ROK and stepped up retaliatory tactics. China
ordered the tour agencies to cut trips to South Korean island Jeju, popular
among Chinese travelers. Imports of cosmetics, electronic goods are blocked.
Telecast of Korean entertainment programs is stalled. China is largest trade
partner of ROK and economic stand-offs might have a toll on the Asia’s fourth
largest economy. ROK is currently battling domestic insurgency with
Constitutional Court upholding the impeachment of President Park Guen-Hye and
ordering election within the next 60 days. China is already exploiting internal
turmoil of ROK. China is bolstering the moves of Minjoo party opposing the
deployment of THAAD in South Korea. Already the lawmakers and Minjoo party
workers are regularly visiting China to workout strategy of renegotiations with
US for THAAD installation.
The unabated missile development of DPRK is keeping the US on
tenterhooks. US adopted a similar strategy of imposing economic sanctions on
Iran and North Korea, both non-signatories of NPT and straddling the path of
nuclear proliferation. While US for time being had tamed Iran, its North Korean
strategy outsourced to China had backfired. North Korea soon mastered the art
of flouting sanctions with evasive techniques. Reports revealed that DPRK began
using foreign citizens as facilitators and relied on front companies to operate
with key countries like China, Malaysia, and Singapore. Kim Jong Nam’s
assassination clearly validates the claims of the report, wherein foreign
nationals are employed to carry out the task. Till now, Malaysia for its
favorite country for carrying all its operations, which allowed North Koreans
to travel visa-free until the assassination. Incidentally, with Chinese covert
support, DPRK is pulling on well despite sanctions without much trouble. Though
China has announced blocks on imports, they not exhaustive and fool proof. DPRK
is crucial for China’s vital geostrategic interests and Beijing will desist
from playing hard ball with Pyongyang. Collapse of DPRK might indeed be
deleterious to Chinese interests. It is time, US and other countries come up
with viable solutions and persuasive diplomatic engagement to bridle
unrestrained galloping of DPRK along path of nuclear proliferation. Trump
administration should review its North Korean policy now.
China is in war of words with Japan also with Tokyo all set
to send its largest warship, Izumo on a three-month tour to Indonesia,
Singapore, Philippines, and Sri Lanka through the South China Sea before
joining Malabar joint naval exercises with Indian and US vessels. China’s
unapologetic aggressive assertions and United States inept Asian policy has
eventually turned North East Asia into potential rivalry zone.
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