US Presidential Election’s October Surprise

After the final Presidential debate, several news agencies declared Hillary Clinton as the winner. With two major self-goals- “nasty woman” jibe and refusal to accept election outcome, Republican Candidate Donald Trump squandered an opportunity to make big gains. Congruently, major surveys predicted an emphatic victory for Clinton giving her six-point lead. Democrats eventually gained an unassailable lead of 12 point over Trump indicating that Clinton is just close to making a history. But things changed unpredictably with latest polls declaring that Trump leads Clinton by one point.

The sharp changes causing spontaneous changes in the poll outcomes of the US presidential elections in political jargon often termed October Surprise till now had potentially influenced the election outcomes. Records indicate that so far this phenomenon has affected the Presidential elections for seven times. Currently, the rather unpredictable development of FBI director James Comey informing the Congress about reopening of investigation of Clinton’s emails has spurred a new row. FBI recovered some emails related to investigation of Clinton’s personal server on the laptop of Clinton’s close aide Huma Adebin’s estranged husband, Anthony Weiner. Weiner was under FBI investigation for allegedly sexting illicit messages to a 15-year girl.  FBI found thousands of Abedin’s emails from Weiner’s laptop. Weiner ran for the post of New York in 2013 lost the contest because he was found sending lewd messages to women using Carlos Danger moniker online. Adebin has been a close associate of Clinton ever since she was first assigned as an intern to her at White House. With the latest revelations, many Democrats are questioning Clinton’s decision of conferring a plum post of White Post Chief of staff to Adebin. Abedin besides carrying the dubious reputation of pedophile husband has her own set of controversies to justify. She worked as the assistant editor of a radical Muslim periodical, Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs which opposes women’s rights and blaming US responsible for 9/11 from 1996 to 2008. Her name was recently removed from the editorial board.

Abedin works under her mother Saleha Abedin who is the editor-in-chief of the journal and vociferously condemns the much-touted postulates of Clinton who appealed Women’s rights are human rights at the UN Women’s Conference at Beijing in 1995. Saleha contested Clinton’s stand terming it as “very aggressive and radically feminist agenda”. Besides rationalizing domestic abuse, Saleha travels around the World with the message that “Empowerment of Women does more harm than benefit the cause of women or their relations with men. By placing women in the care and protection of me and by making women responsible for those under her charge, Islamic values generate a sense of compassion in human and family relations”. She observed that “the very central role women play in procreation, child-raising and home making, Islam places the economic responsibility of supporting the family primarily on the male members”. While views of Saleha has nothing to do with Clinton, Abedin’s casual acknowledgment of her mother’s campaign as normal is worrying. In 2010, Abedin made Clinton who was then secretary of State to address a gathering alongside her mother in Jeddah where she meekly responded for Women’s liberation. With this, Clinton’s propaganda of Championing for women’s rights too falls flat.  Now five FBI field offices are probing the Clinton Foundation, hailed for rendering phenomenal services. The records indicate that its biggest donors are the most oppressive regimes of the World- Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Brunei. Acceptance of funds from the countries with records of human rights violations and oppression of women and endorsement of Ultra-orthodox doctrines cast doubts on Clinton’s attributes. FBI’s announcement just 11-days ahead of election, in the light of above issues have a greater bearing. It might undoubtedly dent Clinton’s creditability among American voters who already consider her corrupt.

Clinton who was facing already facing charges for using family’s private server for official communication as a Secretary of State. Following the revelations in March 2015, a probe was initiated since it was opined that it was a violation of Department’s Protocols and Procedures. FBI found that several communications marked as classified were passed on through “unclassified systems”. Mishandling of official documents is considered a federal crime.  This entire controversy came into lime light during her election campaign for her involvement in 2012 Benghazi attack. By June 2016, FBI concluded the investigation and remarked that Clinton was “extremely careless” in handling the official documents. All through the course of investigation Clinton fumbled a lot which hit her reputation. Though FBI exonerated her of all charges since they failed to obtain any evidence of hacking of her account, lack of transparency raised concerns. Her attempts to hid the pneumonia in a way created an impression that she was lying. By the end of September, Trump was well-ahead of Clinton when fortunes suddenly changed for democratic camp with the release of Trump’s audiotapes containing lewd comments about women. This down turn of GOP culminated in mass defection of several Republicans. His popularity plummeted after 9 women alleged he had sexually assaulted them previously. This was soon followed by the final presidential debate where Clinton scored brownie points and emerged as the front runner for POTUS. Ironically, Donald Trump with his venomous remarks about women, Latinos, Muslims, African-Americans and disabled have undermined the pluralist nature of the oldest democracy. Besides his defiance in releasing his tax returns, charges of financial bungling and the controversial university in his name earned his severe censure and prosecution. His open call for hacking of Clinton’s emails, Russian connections, denouncement of US’s historical ties with allies, Xenophobia and charges of sexual assaults made his the most undesirable Presidential nominee.

The October Surprise in the form of FBI reinvestigation of Clinton’s Email gate is believed to change the trajectory of the popular vote. While Clinton is maintaining a “statesman-like poise” and remained tight-lipped on FBI reopening investigation, experts believe that damage has been done. History offers a guide to fathom the influence of the October Surprise. Experts are goaded to believe if October Surprises are engineered to tip victory in favor of a candidate. Bill Clinton famously pulled off a victory over George H.W. Bush after Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh’s indictment of Reagan’s Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger on October 30^th 1992 over Iran-Contra affair. On the speculation that Bush knew something about the arms for hostage exchange arrangement, Bill Clinton decimated Bush and Ross Perot in elections. In 2012, Barack Obama won the closely contested race against Mitt Romney when a video surfaced where Romney was found saying that 47% of Americans don’t pay taxes and consider themselves as victims. Back in 2008 when Obama had slim chance of making it to White House, Lehman Brother’s went bankrupt. The announcement of 159,000 Americans losing jobs and Industrial average falling by 18% in first week of October triggered panic. Voters attributing the crisis to Republicans voted Obama. In 2004, Osama Bin Laden’s video taunting Bush and issuing threats to US aptly changed the voter tide in favor of Bush assured to keep American safe. Incidentally, John Kerry who initially made rapid gains on voter anger lost the race.

Back in 2000, a video tape appeared just five days before election with news of George W Bush’s arrest in 1976 for drunken driving. Bush supporters immediately alleged that Democrats practiced dirty politics and leaked the video to damage Bush campaign. Al Gore denied it. In this closest fought election in American history, Gore was leading with 500,000 popular vote. But Supreme Court halted a recount of disputed ballots in Florida and handed over the votes to Bush. In 1980, Jimmy Carter was negotiating release of 52 US hostages in Iran for over a year. It later emerged that rival Ronald Reagan with his aides managed to stall the release of hostages before elections. Carter lost to Reagan in election and hostages were released on the day of his swearing-in. In 1972 to secure reelection, Richard Nixon authorized secretary of state Henry Kissinger to announce on Oct 26 that “Peace is at Hand” in Vietnam to trounce the Democrat George Mc Govern. In 1968 few days before election Lyndon Johnson ordered to stop all US bombings of North Vietnam anticipating rich dividends for democratic nominee Hubert Humphrey but Richard Nixon won convincingly. October Surprises crucially changed the trajectory of the electoral choices.

US presidential elections are watched keenly world over for the great bearing it has on the rest of the World. 2016 US Presidential Elections is reckoned for its unprecedented levels of personal abuse and controversies has severely polarized the electorate. With the contest now reduced to electing from among the two most uninspiring personalities, the election has already lost its sheen and relevance. It is no understatement to say that American voters are now forced to choose between devil and deep sea. Since both the candidates would inevitably cast a spell of uninspiring aura in the realms of American history.

@ Copyrights reserved.