Modi’s bonhomie with Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe touched new pinnacles of bilateral Indo-Japanese bilateral
engagement during the third annual summit at Tokyo. Right from the days as Chief
Minister of Gujarat, Modi had a special relationship with Japan. On his
eclectic visit to Japan as Prime Minister of India in 2014 both sides have
elevated the relationship to a Special
Strategic and Global Partnership and launched India-Japan Investment
Promotion Partnership wherein Japan promised to invest $35 billion over a
period of five years. In 2015, Abe on during his India visit outlined a vision
for a “deep, broad-based and action-oriented partnership” and deals worth
93,000 crores were signed. Thus, previous annual bilateral meets were high on
theatrics and content. Despite the warmth and personal chemistry between the
leaders, that added heft to the friendship, experts were skeptical since the
nuclear negotiations overdue for the past six years failed to reach a
conclusion. On his three-day long to Japan which concluded on Nov 12th,
Modi successfully heralded the conclusion of civil nuclear agreement between
India and Japan.
Historic Indo-Japanese Relations
Indo-Japanese relations can be dated
back to 7th century AD. In the long illustrious association of over
1400 years, both countries were never adversaries and the bilateral relations
were devoid of any ideological, territorial or cultural disputes. India
established diplomatic ties with Japan in 1952 and ever since relations were
strengthened by high level bilateral visits. Japan has been instrumental in
revolutionizing the Indian automobile industry. In early 1980’s Suzuki Motor
Corporation first invested in India and transformed the sector. This was
followed by companies by Mitsubishi, Toyota and Nissan. Japan was one of the
few countries which bailed out India during the balance of payment crisis in
1991. Eventually, the foundation for the modern-day partnership was laid by
Prime Minister Mori who on his visit to India in 2000 envisioned Japan-India Global Partnership. In 2006,
Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh and Shinzo Abe added new dimensions of
cooperation and upgraded it to Global
Strategic Partnership with a provision for annual Prime Ministerial
Summits. In 2011, Comprehensive Economic
Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was concluded.
Japan is the third largest source of
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the past 15 years. But ironically, India’s
trade ties with Japan have been fluctuating and lags that of China. A research
paper authored by Peter Buckley and others on Indo-Japan economic ties
indicated that raw materials shipped from India to Japan had facilitated
Japan’s early industrialization. It says “by creating a direct shipping route
between Mumbai and Kobe in 1883, a number of industrial conglomerates such as
Mitsui and Mitsubishi had not only successfully challenged international
competitors but also established trade between two countries”. By 1915, trade
ties fluctuated and gained momentum only in early 1980’s but again they
suffered when India conducted nuclear tests in 1998. Currently, India is keen
on accelerating economic growth and aspires to reduce bilateral trade
imbalances with China. To finance the needs of an emerging economy, experts
believe that India must deeply engage with Japan.
Nuclear Deal
Nuclear deal with Japan, a country
who suffered the brunt of nuclear attacks and strongly upholds the anti-nuclear
test is indeed historic. Japan had reservations about inking a deal with non-signatory
to NPT (Nuclear Proliferation Treaty) and CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty).
Japan acceding to a nuclear pact with India is thus truly significant. Japan’s
move strengthened India’s pursuit for a place in NSG club at a time, when India’s
inclusion is to be discussed at the upcoming NSG meet at Vienna. Unlike the
civil nuclear deal with US, which was finalized in four different stages which
included signing of 123 agreement in 2007, NSG clearance in 2008, reprocessing
in 2010 and the final stage of signing administrative agreement in 2015, the
pact with Japan has all the four stages rolled into one. While the details of
the pact are not public, this treaty had laid foundation for bilateral
cooperation in nuclear energy. The deal wasn’t easily cut and several rounds of
negotiations preceded the pact. India with its impeccable nuclear record convinced
Japan by harmonizing the export control system along the guidelines and annexes
of NSG. The basic parameters of Indo-Japanese nuclear deal are like that of
Indo-US deal where a termination clause does exist. As per the “termination and
cessation clauses”, nuclear cooperation cease to exist the moment India
conducts a nuclear test obviating compliance to NPT.
The stunning victory of Donald Trump,
who made controversial remarks about recalibration of Sino-US ties has indeed
portended well for India. While India and Japan had a sustained partnership
with cooperation extending to several sectors, clinching of nuclear pact
appeared to be difficult. An uncertain US foreign policy and burgeoning Chinese
assertiveness propelled Japan to engage in a formidable geostrategic
understanding with India, which is mutually beneficial. This agreement augurs well for Abe, a revisionist
leader who is now slowly revamping Japan’s defence cooperation and foreign
policy. From economic stand point, nuclear deal is a win-win situation for both
countries. The use of nuclear energy hit a new low in Japan post-Fukushima
disaster in 2011 and the public outcry warranted restraints on the continuation
of nuclear energy as single viable energy source. Japan’s ailing nuclear
industry is in search of lucrative markets. By signing the deal, Japanese
government can revive its domestic nuclear energy industry while India can
reduce its reliance on the energy exports and pursue its lofty ambitions of
clean energy. Burdened by increasing levels of pollution and burgeoning energy
needs, India’s new energy policy is now focusing on non-fossil fuel energy
resources with special emphasis on nuclear energy.
During his visit, Modi called upon
Emperor Akihito, traveled to Kobe in Shinkansen bullet train to visit Kawasaki
Heavy Industries Ltd manufacturing unit and addressed the Indian Diaspora.
Aside, the landmark nuclear deal, both Prime Ministers agreed to expanded the
ambit of cooperation in high technology, space, clean energy, infrastructure,
smart cities, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, ICT, education and skills to
deepen strategic engagement with Japan.
Other significant outcomes
Agreement was reached on the sale of 12 US-2
amphibian aircrafts, that can increase India’s air surveillance capacities in
Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. To accelerate the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed
Rail (MAHSR) the Ground Breaking Ceremony would be held in 2017. To enhance the
Manufacturing Skill Transfer Promotion Program, it was decided that around
30,000 Indian personnel would be trained over the next 10 years through
establishment of Japan-India Institutes for Manufacturing (JIM)s which would be
set up in states of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat. Japan intends to
support upgradation of ship-recycling units at Alang, Gujarat.
Strengthen cooperation in enhancing
connectivity in North East India, building smart cities, smart islands and Japan
Industrial Townships (JIT). To promote investment of Japanese companies in
India, Nippon Export and Investment Insurance (NEXI) and Japan Bank for
International Cooperation (JBIC) will finance up to 1.5 trillion Yen to
implement Japan-India Make in India
Special Finance Facility. Both sides agreed to work jointly and
cooperatively with international community to promote development of industrial
corridors and networks in Asia and Africa including the infrastructure
development and connectivity of Chabahar port.
A MoU was signed between Gujarat
State and Hyogo Prefecture (Shinkansen agreement). Other MoU’s were in sectors
of infrastructure, sports, space cooperation and cultural exchange. Abe
announced relaxation of visas for Indian students and pledged to expand the
visa application sites to 20. Abe reaffirmed support to India’s entry into
three nuclear regimes- NSG, Wassenaar Arrangement and Australian Group.
Prime Ministers affirmed faith in deepening
bilateral security and defense cooperation through 2+2 dialogue, defence policy
dialogue, military to military talk and coast coast guard cooperation. Both
sides supported each other’s candidature into expanded UNSC. Under the India’s Act East Policy and Japan’s Enhanced Partnership for Quality
Infrastructure leaders laid
foundation for synergizing bilateral relationship. Deepening cooperation on
global challenges like climate change, nuclear proliferation, countering
terrorism, violent extremism, nuclear terrorism, maritime security, cyber
security, UN reforms and maintaining rule based international order.
Geostrategic Front
China has been flustered by growing
cooperation between India and Japan. Days before Modi’s visit to Japan, China’s
state media began publishing articles warning India of inclement repercussions,
if Modi supports Japan’s stance on SCS. An open ed of Global Times, Chinese
State media said “India wouldn’t gain much by balancing China through Japan
instead it would lead to more distrust between New Delhi and Beijing”. It added
India will suffer great losses if India supports Japan’s stance on South China
Sea (SCS). Unfazed by petulant Chinese warnings, Modi joined Abe in seeking
peaceful resolution of disputes in SCS. They urged the parties “to resolve
disputes through peaceful means without resorting to threat or use of force and
exercise self-restraint” and asked them “to show utmost respect to UNCLOS”.
They stressed the importance of resolving disputes by peaceful means “in
accordance with universally recognized principles of international law
including UNCLOS parties to resolve disputes”. Though China may not take
India’s remarks kindly, India concurred with Japan in the Joint Statement.
Earlier, Japan invested heavily in
China, eventually catalyzing its economic resurgence. Of late, rising
anti-Japan sentiment, territorial disputes, declaration of Air Defense
Identification Zone (ADIZ) over East China Sea by China and economic slowdown
prompted Japanese companies to shift bases to other ASEAN countries under Plus
One Strategy. Considering the geopolitical factors and economic vantage,
Japanese companies have shifted bases and are now investing in ASEAN countries.
By reaffirming interest in enhancing cooperation in trade, infrastructure
development and connectivity an interest shared by both sides, Modi hit the
right notes. In its effort to emerge as a key player, India has certainly found
a reliable partner in Japan.
China is visibly ruffled by the
deepening of cooperation between India and Japan in various areas which
undeniably has a greater geostrategic implication. Modi through his proactive
outreach under Act East policy made it amply clear that India is trying to
counterbalance China. Beijing is now wary of the Strategic diamond or the Asian Security Diamond, unveiled by Shinzo
Abe in response to China’s growing assertiveness and strategic maritime
penetrance. Abe in his address to Indian Parliament in 2007 spoke of Confluence of Seas indicating that “safety
and security of Western Pacific and Indian Ocean were indivisible and that Japan
and India should take lead in conjunction with like-minded nations to ensure
maritime security of what is now jointly referred as the Indo Pacific Asia”. He
envisaged a maritime cooperation between Japan, India, Australia and US state
of Hawaii. China perceives this as a Democratic Security Diamond targeted to
encircle it. With US under the unpredictable President Trump, might in every
likelihood withdraw from Obama’s Asia pivot. Thus, to counterbalance the
growing assertiveness of China in Asia, India and Japan should have formidable
understanding and cooperation. In the meanwhile, China shouldn’t necessarily
raise alarm over the deepening strategic ties between India and Japan as India
approach has never been about containment.
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