There has been a steady and dynamic unravelling of new
geopolitical strategies in the Indo-Pacific region in the recent past. With
Japan passing a legislation unleashing its latent Samurai, it can now deploy
armed forces overseas even in absence of an imminent threat to Japan. This new
resolve for defence-assertiveness drew flak from China who construed it as
Japan’s return to its militarist past. Russia too quickly joined the bandwagon
and intensified the deployment of armed forces along its Eastern border and in
the disputed Kuril Islands referred to as Northern territories by the Japan on
which Tokyo lays its claims. Russia and China are now factoring in various
strategies and recently announced plans for second round of joint military
exercise in the Sea of Japan in August. It is believed that Russia is going to
deploy 20 of its war ships, helicopters and air force. This second round of
joint exercise is follow-up of first military showdown in the Mediterranean Sea
in May (1).
Russia has now recently released a document outlining its
naval policy valid till 2020 with constructive engagement with China as its
corner stone. The tensions in the South China Sea too has been spiralling up
with China raising alarm over the seven hour long surveillance mission carried
out the US Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Scott Swift in the region. This was
quickly followed by deployment of 100 armed troops in the South China Sea
during military manoeuvres. More disturbing reports that emerged suggest that
the US, China and Russia are now drawn into a race of developing the hypersonic
weapons to have military edge. Hypersonic weapons capable of racing at speed
beyond Mach-5 have a longer range precision strike, endowed with ability to
carry nuclear war heads are almost impossible to intercept by the traditional
missile defence systems. Moreover their unpredictable trajectory makes them the
most dangerous weapons of modern warfare. The military superiority of the US is
now under serious threat with Russia and China trying to reach each other.
Together with all these three nations chasing to ascertain their supremacy over
the contemporary geopolitics the delicate global balance of power is under
significant threat.
Russo-Chinese relations are now intensely discussed among the
diplomatic circles following the promise of closer dialogue and engagement on
various issues along the sidelines of two recently concluded summits- BRICS and
SCO at Ufa in Russia. Russia under the strain of its crumbling economy and
falling rouble is now warming up to China. Bundled under cumulative pressure of
sanctions by the European nations and the US for annexing Crimea and for the
violence in Ukraine Russia is now wooing Beijing (2). China inturn is looking
forward to Moscow for advanced war weaponry. In a joint communiqué issued at
SCO, both countries reiterated their commitment to fight terrorism in Central
Asia and Xinjiang province of China (3).
Russia and China are currently the two largest communist
countries in the World that confounded in similar ideology till 1956 but with
Sino-Soviet split in 1960 the differences became intractable (4). Both nations
sparred with each other in 1969 over the possession of Zhenabo islands and then
subsequently reached border agreement in 1995. Final Sino-Russian border
agreement regarding other eastern parts of the border was resolved in 2008 (5).
Diplomatic relations between the two countries transformed into a meaningful
dialogue post cold-war era, where Russia yearned for an ally in the West
dominated world. But the trade investments and Chinese migrants are viewed
suspiciously by Russians who are wary of Chinese intentions. Some strategists
even assert that China is greedily eyeing the covetous treasures of the least
inhabited region of Russia, Siberia. In fact post World War II Japan wanted to
make investments in Siberia, but as its economy stagnated, Tokyo retreated.
China, with its large purse is by far more interested in Siberia. Russia beset
with its economic degradation and social instability is cognizant of Beijing’s
dubious interests is cautious. Russia fears the colonial mindset of China. To
assuage fears of the natives in Far East, it has doubled its naval presence in
the Pacific region as a defence primarily against Japan and to counter the
growing maritime abilities of China (6).
The bilateral relationship reached a zenith as the countries
sealed $400 billion worth energy deal for a period of 30years. Accordingly the
energy super power Russia agreed to supply 30 billion cubic meters annually to
per year to China, the largest importer of oil and natural gas by 2018. With
Russia completely severing its ties with Europe to which it has been exporting
oil, China is now going to replace Germany and emerge as Russia’s largest
energy market. While the energy deal was conceived to be profitable for China
it is the only economy that has the financial capacity and ability to consume
the huge oil and natural gas resources of Russia. Russian oil giant Rosenft has
agreed to sell 10 % of its shares in oil firms at Siberia to the China National
Petroleum Corporation (7).
In reality the sanctions imposed by the west served as a
catalyst for rejuvenation of ties between Russia and China. Post cold war,
Kremlin wanted to be associated with European countries. Russia reached out to
Berlin since it believed that amalgamation of German technological expertise
its energy reserves can lay foundation for a robust friendship (8). For over
three decades it served as the largest oil and natural gas supplier to Europe
but with near severing of ties following sanctions, Russia embraced China and
subsequently outsourced its energy supplies to Beijing. Since Russia was
willing to accept Yuan, China willingly went ahead with energy deal providing
market for nearly 15% of Russia’s output. Russia had to face a stiff
competition from its Central Asian counterparts which were vying to supply oil
to China. Already Kazakasthan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been supplying
oil to different provinces of China through oil pipes. These nations besides
providing the needed raw materials, hydrocarbons also serve as potential market
for Chinese goods. In fact landlocked central Asian countries are welcoming the
gargantuan Silk Road economic belt that can provide access to free economic
zones and economic clusters and further connect these nations to fast west and
South Asia. The grinding economic sanctions on Russia took a toll on the
economic foreign policy project investment initiative Eurasian Economic Union
(EEU) led by it. Chinese investment through the Silk Road fund is expected to
revitalise the EEU. In a significant move both nations have agreed to establish
a rating agency on that will assess the countries and their investments based
on the same criterion and tools used by the earlier agencies like the Flitch
and Moodys (9).
For Russia friendship with China
would not only help in recuperating the ailing economy but also caters to its
ambitions of gaining geopolitical anchorage. In 2011 when Russia registered
significant growth rate, it emerged as a hotbed for lucrative investments and
substantially drew attention of the enterprising Chinese investors. This laid
ground for a protracted and long term engagement with China. In the series of new
parleys of joint investment both countries are expected to announce a
Russia-China investment fund aimed at increasing mutual interdependence in
three sectors-infrastructure, real estate and minerals. Russia is more
particular about investment in infrastructure development as it is scheduled to
host FIFA World Cup 2018 and energy infrastructure to supply oil to its eastern
markets.
China in the mean while is trying to procure the Surface to
Air Missile, SAM-400 (with 400km strike range) and Su-35’s from Russia. Though
the top Russian aids maintain that such deal wasn’t finalised, serious
negotiations are on (10).This advanced military equipment will certainly
strengthen China’s in a bargain over disputed islands in the region. Both
nations have promised to double the bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2020.
The renewed alliance between these nations might emerge as a viable alternative
in the multi polar world. While others believe that the alliance might crumble
under burden of historical animosities, suspicion, and competition over shared
neighbourhood. But US’s Asia pivot policy might compel them to work together
against a common threat.
Japan and the US for time being are not wary of the new
alliance but are betting that the mutual distrust and suspicions balance the
assertiveness of China. According to US Scholar Micheal Auslin, Japan and
Washington may consider Putin in the regional security dialogues and try to
wean away Russia from China through trade initiatives and joint military
exercises (11). Another predicted scenario is if Chinese economy slumps and if
it wants to gain more access into Siberia, Putin might re-enact its power
display in the Far East as the Siberians too loathe Chinese presence. But in
any case the alliance is set to propel a new power game with Asia as the pivot.
- http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/russia-and-china-set-to-counter-usled-asia-pivot-in-the-pacific/article7485758.ece
- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-05-05/ruble-plunge-hitting-russians-speeds-slide-to-recession
- http://www.sectsco.org/EN123/
- http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB49/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split
- http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/06/russia-china-energy-alliance-ge-201461765254926525.html
- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-11-10/russia-china-add-to-400-billion-gas-deal-with-accord
- http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2015/07/sino-russian-alliance-rival-europe-150719085829977.html
- http://www.rt.com/business/163340-china-russia-rating-agency/
- http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140531/DEFREG/305310028/Russian-Fighters-China-Still-Hold
- https://www.aei.org/publication/russia-and-china-fuel-asias-other-great-game/
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