Prime Minister’s stand alone trip to United Arab Emirates (UAE),
the first ever visit by an Indian Prime Minister in 34 years is drawing lot of
attention. Indira Gandhi was the last Indian Prime Minister to have visited
Emirates. In 2013, Man Mohan Singh was all set to fly to Abu Dhabi but the
visit was cancelled at the eleventh hour. In the meanwhile speculations are
rife that the sudden visit to UAE is an attempt to assuage Arab fears before Modi’s
scheduled visit to Israel in September.
This visit brings to fore Modi’s proposition of “Link West”
rationale and accentuates importance of Middle East in India’s energy security.
While there are various multilateral forums to routinely engage with South East
Asian countries, due to non-existence of such institutional framework, India
has to take initiative to engage with the Middle East. With scheduled visit to UAE
would cater to India’s enthusiasm to make forays into Middle East. India’s
relations with Middle East were dogged by ideological inhibitions (1). Sources
from Ministry of External Affairs indicate that Modi might soon be touring
Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia on his way back from the G-20 summit in Antalya,
Turkey.
During the two day visit on August 16th Modi will
meet the crown prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed and UAE Prime
Minister Sheikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum. His itinerary includes a visit
to Sheikh Zayed grand mosque, an exquisite masterpiece of Muslim architecture
and Masdar city, a Zero Carbon city. Besides he will attend grand reception
arranged by the Indian expatriate community and address them at the Dubai
International Sports Stadium. The India Community Welfare Committee (ICWC) has
revved up its preparations for the spectacular reception on the evening of
August 17th.
Despite growing turbulence in the region all the South Asian
countries and India in particular are still attracted to the Arabian Peninsula.
The region besides employing millions of India is the source for huge
remittances sent home by the Indian Diaspora and an energy-hungry India sources
its oil imports from the Gulf.
Unfortunately, in spite of geographical proximity and strong economical
relationship with the Gulf India has significantly failed in fortifying a
reliable political engagement.
India largely inherited the strategic maritime primacy of the
British harboured grand ambitions to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean
and Persian Gulf. But post partition all its military energies were expended in
guarding borders from its hostile neighbours Pakistan and China. Thus India’s
abilities to extend its purview have been severely constrained. India in a bid
to improve its relations with Pakistan invested such extraordinary diplomatic
efforts that severely curtailed its engagement with Muslim countries in the
neighbourhood and with Gulf in particular. The economic reforms revived India’s
economic conditions and its sustained growth and potential consumer market
demand soon began to draw attention of major countries including the Arab states
(2). India is now considered as a serious strategic partner owing to its
geographical positioning too. Unlike the UPA government which failed to make
forays into the Gulf region the NDA seems to have realised the need to
strategically engage with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The GCC supplies
45% of India’s petroleum.
The GCC (includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia
and the UAE) now have adopted “Look East” policy and more inclined to
strengthen relations with India. Further the destination for majority of its
workforce is India. Indian expatriate community in UAE include 15% of qualified
personnel, 20 % white-collar non-professionals and 60% blue-collar workers (3).
UAE has declared 2015 as the “year of innovation” and intends to transform
itself into a knowledge-based economy (4). Emphatically, Indian leadership must
take initiative to forge partnership between Indian institutes and research
centres with their equal counterparts in UAE and work towards mutual capacity
building and know-how.
India and UAE have strong friendship due to their close
cultural, religious and economic ties. The sturdy economic and commercial
cooperation between the two countries is the key aspect for the bilateral
relationship. Indians are the most important investors in UAE while India is a
major market for its manufactured goods. The trade between the nations which
was $70 million in 1970 is now around $ 60 billion. UAE is the third largest
trading partner of India after the US and China. UAE was the top most export
destination for India last year. India in turn majorly imports petrol and UAE
is the sixth largest supplier of crude oil to India. It is the tenth biggest
investor in India. India and UAE signed Bilateral Investment Promotion and
Protection Agreement (BIPA) which provides a comprehensive framework for
investors in both countries in 2013. But unfortunately investments made by UAE
in India are $3.68 billion as against India’s $55 billion in UAE. Major UAE
investors in India include the Emaar MGF, DK World and RAK Ceramics and others.
UAE has the second largest sovereign wealth fund (SWF) under the Abu Dhabi
Investment Authority (ADIA) has assets worth $800 billion and India is keen on
tapping potential investments towards infrastructure development (5).
UAE is the host for a large population of Indian expatriate
community of about 2.65 million sending remittances worth $15 billion. The
Indian expatriates from UAE constitute the top remitters followed by their
counterparts in the US which sent $11.17 billion 2014. Indians constitute the
third largest ethnic population visiting UAE (6). Indian Work force accounts
for 30% of the population in UAE.
In the recent past there has been renewed cooperation between
India and UAE. In 2012, Abu Dhabi National Petroleum Corporation obtained an
engineering contract of India’s ONGC in Mumbai High Field and worked towards
building offshore platforms. Abu Dabhi National Energy Company PSJC (TAQA) in
2014 invested $616 million in two power plants Baspa II and 1000MW Karcham
Wangtoo power plants in Himachal Pradesh and now exploring the possibility of
working towards development of clean energy with India.
India’s trade and energy needs are inextricably linked to the
security of the Straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb. Realising this paradox
Indian Navy regularly trains with the respective Arab states in the region
paving way for expanding its reach in the region. Gulf of Aden provides access
to Suez Canal which is a major transit region for Indian goods. All these
aspects highlight India’s stakes in this region and underline the need for
building strategic cooperation with the region (7).
The metric of geopolitical scenario is rapidly changing
wherein traditional alliances are falling apart and unexpected ties are
heralded. Orthodox critics largely apprehend that India might be forced to
choose between the Arab States and Israel for they believe that enhancing
relations with Israel might hamper India’s traditional ties with the Arabs. Indeed the rivalry between these nations began
to fade way away. With the US making nuclear agreement with Iran, Saudi Arabia
more subtly and Israel has more openly lashed out their fears about the
resurgence Iran. The intense rivalry witnessed in the Arabian Peninsula is now
more of an ideological clash between Sunni’s and Shia’s and has become a matter
of wielding hegemony in the region. Analysts are now predicting a possible
alliance between the Arab states and Israel. With the tyrannical rise of the
Islamic State the Arab states are feeling more threatened and compelled to seal
grossly unexpected alliances (8). It is time that India breaks free and strives
hard to fortify relations with UAE.
In addition to exploring the possibilities for enhancing
economic ties another important area of strategic cooperation is counter
terrorism, exchange of information regarding the terror groups, military
exercises and maritime security. It is anticipated that Prime Minister in his
meeting with the political leadership would seek help for the release of 39 Indians
held in captivity by the IS. Unlike the Indian Diaspora in other countries UAE
is home to a large number of blue-collared Indian workers who live in squalid
conditions. The visit provides yet another opportunity to Indian leadership to
address the problems of the unskilled and semi-skilled people and their
welfare. UAE doesn’t confer any permanent membership and hence all of them have
to return home. Indian labourers working in the Gulf are victims of abuse, live
in sub standard conditions and are vulnerable to exploitation by agents. The
visit is a great opportunity for the Indian leadership to work towards evolving
new mechanisms of grievance–redressal to improve the situation of thousands of
Indian labour (9). Also treaties and agreements on extradition, mutual legal
assistance in civil and criminal issues and combating trafficking in narcotics
are other issues which need bilateral cooperation.
As against the incipient political reluctance displayed by
the previous UPA government it is time for Modi to infuse new energy and steer
ahead with an agenda of strategic cooperation with UAE, a vibrant hub of
economic development.
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