The Trajectory of Evolving India-Australia Ties

The speed with which India has transformed its ties with Australia is a case of strategic clarity which was amiss in New Delhi’s foreign policy previously. Seizing every opportunity, India is clearly defining its objectives and interests and forging new relations and resurrecting old ties to rightly position itself as a leading power.

For a long time, the India-Australia ties with immense potential suffered strategic neglect. The last decade witnessed a sharp reconfiguration of India-Australia ties. Observers believe that the visits of Prime Minister Julia Gillard in 2012 and Tony Abbott in September 2014 have laid the ground for a new phase in bilateral relationships marred with mistrust.

The real turnaround came with PM Modi’s iconic address to the Australian Parliament in 2014 which articulated the connected history and shared inheritances of India and Australia. Other than predominantly hyphenated common interests- Common Wealth, Curry and Cricket, Modi spoke of – demand, demography and development with prospective opportunities for Australia in India. He underscored the strategic regional salience of Australia, saying “today, the world sees Australia to be at the heart of Asia Pacific (Indo-Pacific gained prominence in the late 2010s) and the Indian Ocean” ¹ Modi called for bilateral security cooperation.

In 2008, even though President Obama batted for an exemption for India and supported candidature for NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) Australia refused to sell Uranium nuclear fuel to India until it signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. India was part of the Quadrilateral security dialogue for democratic countries envisioned by Shinzo Abe in 2007 for an open, inclusive Indo-Pacific. But owing to the dominant pro-China foreign policy Australia remained indifferent toward India. Australia cultivated strong trading ties with China and at the risk of irking the Dragon, Australia even pulled out from Malabar exercises dampening the Indo-Pacific framework even before its take off.

The Fukushima disaster in 2011 brought down the demand for Uranium after major countries shut down nuclear reactors. This directly affected Australia, which has World’s largest Uranium resources ranking among the top five producers. On her three-day visit to India in 2012, Julian Gillard signalled the beginning of negotiations for Uranium sale and countries sealed a civil nuclear agreement during Tony Abbott’s state visit to India in 2014. After three years, Australia shipped Uranium supplies to India.

During the Cold war and much later, India and Australia always found themselves in opposite camps. Canberra’s act of recalling the diplomatic entourage post India’s nuclear tests in 1998 left a bitter aftertaste in the relations. Marred with hesitations, both countries had strained relations. Ostensibly, Chinese aggressive expansionism, trade war with China that intensified in the aftermath of Covid and the imposition of anti-dumping and countervailing duties have galvanised, India-Australia engagement. The common threat brought India and Australia closer on two fronts- security and trade.

Giving a major fillip to the shared visions, interests and opportunities, with a focus on the non-traditional security issues of Indo-Pacific, countries worked together to elevate the senior officials meeting (SOM) of India-Australia-Indonesia trilateral to foreign ministers and defence ministers meetings in 2021². To ratchet up cooperation among the Indian Ocean littorals, France announced a trilateral with resident powers of the Indian Ocean, India and Australia in 2018. The trilateral India-France-Australia (IFA) suffered a setback due to the AUKUS agreement. Albanese’s visit to France in June 2022, witnessed a thaw in the relationship and the meeting of foreign ministers of the three countries subsequently along the sidelines of UNGA effectively revived the IFA³.

These mini-laterals have a defined objective of adherence to the rules-based order and ensuring a free, open, inclusive and conflict-free Indo-Pacific region. The revival of the Quad and the new mini-laterals have notably put several countries in the region at odds with China. All these countries have strong economic ties with China and are averse to any strategic security alliance. Reckoning with the sensitivities of the countries to take on the Dragon, India and Australia have always asserted the centrality of the ASEAN countries in the Indo-Pacific region.

China’s revisionism is posing a significant threat to strategic security calculus in the sphere of influence of both India and Australia. The common concern about China’s assertiveness- the string of pearls in India’s immediate neighbourhood and sweeping security deal for the Pacific Island Countries (PIC) has brought India and Australia much closer.  Further, they reaffirmed strengthening cooperation in the Pacific in line with the needs and priorities of the Pacific Island Countries (PIC). Clearly, mutual interests are driving them together.

Overcoming the covid imposed hurdles on in-person diplomatic engagement, PM Modi and PM Scott Morrison held two virtual summits to bolster bilateral ties. In 2020, India and Australia upgraded the strategic partnership of 2009 to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”.

Anthony Albanese’s three-day three-city state visit to India on March 8^th marked the first in-person annual summit between both countries, an arrangement that was agreed upon last year. This is Albanese’s first visit to India as the Prime Minister. The last Australian Prime Minister to visit India was Malcolm Turnbull in 2017. India has an annual summit arrangement with Japan and Russia. Australia is now on the privileged list.

Additionally, both countries have a slew of institutional mechanisms – Foreign Ministers Frame Work Dialogue, 2+2 Defence and Foreign Ministers Dialogue, Defence Chiefs talks, Joint Trade & Commerce Ministerial Commission, Australia-India Education Council, Energy Dialogue and Joint Working Groups on different issues to strengthen the engagement on multi-faceted issues. The rapid expansion of ties between the countries is further strengthened by frequent high-level contacts and ministerial exchange visits. There were 18 ministerial exchanges between both countries last year.

The interim free trade agreement, ECTA (Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement) is India’s first-ever FTA with a developed country. This besides laying the foundation for robust economic cooperation has expanded opportunities for the diversification of trade for both countries. Both Parliaments ratified the ECTA which came into force on December 29, 2022.

As of 2021, India is Australia’s sixth-largest trading partner and fourth-largest goods and service export market. Now countries are working on CECA (Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement). Expediting negotiations and pledging to conclude CECA by the end of 2023, trade ministers of both countries have set an ambitious target of $100 billion in bilateral trade in the next five years⁴.

For open, secure, inclusive, robust and dependable global supply chains, in the aftermath of the Covid pandemic, India and Australia along with Japan unveiled Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI). To stabilise global supply chain resilience, the US has launched Indo-Pacific Economic Framework under the Quad, both countries have now identified this new platform to work together.

India’s climate goals are inexorably linked to the clean energy transition which is reliant on the availability and access to critical minerals. Realising the criticality of these minerals both countries signed MoU for their sustained supply last year and resolved to take this cooperation forward through India-Australia Minerals Scholar Network. Alongside, countries have agreed to enhance cooperation in agriculture, science, technology, innovation, space, renewable energy, hydrogen, solar energy, health, climate, security, cybersecurity, humanitarian assistance, counter-terrorism, critical & emerging technologies, and education⁵.

Under the pillar of Defence cooperation, countries have commenced General Rawat Officers Exchange Program to foster cooperation through the exchange of young soldiers between the countries. Furthermore, to increase interoperability, maritime domain awareness and maritime partnership, Australia besides hosting the Malabar 2023 exercises for the Quad countries invited India to participate in Exercise Talisman Sabre 2023⁶. In November 2022, countries commenced the first military exercise- AUSTRAHIND22 in Rajasthan. The defence ministers of both countries are pushing for a Joint Working Group on defence research and material cooperation⁷. India along with Brazil stopped China from posing hurdles to the supply of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia by the US⁸.

Indians form the second-largest overseas community in Australia. Expressing concerns over a spate of temple vandalizations and attacks on the Indian community, Prime Minister Modi sought assurance of the safety of Indians in Australia⁹. In a major boost to the strong educational ties between India and Australia, Australia announced to recognise Indian educational degrees by signing the Mechanism for Mutual Recognition of Qualifications¹⁰. Also, Australia’s Deakin University and the University of Wollongong confirmed to set up their first overseas campuses at GIFT city.

Countries have signed an agreement on Audiovisual coproduction, MoU on Cooperation in Sports, Terms of Reference on India-Australia Taskforce and a Letter of Intent for furthering innovation¹¹.

PM Albanese invited PM Modi for the Quad Summit meeting in May in Australia and announced to return to India for the G20 summit in September. Needless to say, these frequent highest-level engagements are bound to bring both countries closer. To nurture the expanding bilateral ties Australian government pledged to fund $28.1 million Centre for Australia-India Relations¹². Bilateral relations over a period of time ebbed and flowed. But now there is a new political will to deepen the relations.

Leaders exchanged views on various bilateral, regional and global challenges including Myanmar, Ukraine, North Korea and Afghanistan. Australia congratulated India on assuming the Chairmanship of the Wassenaar Agreement.

Celebration of ‘colours, culture and cricket’ that symbolised the spirit of friendship has been on a grand display with Albanese participating in Holi celebrations and watching the Gavaskar-Border trophy test match at Ahmedabad with PM Modi. PM Albanese also became the first foreign leader to receive a guard of honour at India’s indigenously built aircraft carrier INS Vikrant. He also visited the Indian Naval station at Kunjali.

Seismic changes in the geopolitical alignment, structural changes in the economy, and multi-dimensional challenges from China propelled the strategic alignment of democratic countries, India and Australia. This new ‘strategic equilibrium’ is not a derivative of what a third country does. As of now the strategic convergence over shared interests has overwhelmed the differences including those on the Ukraine issue. To sustain this momentum, it is incumbent on leaders to continuously reevaluate and review the ties to iron out the differences and build a long-term robust partnership.

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