Monday 12 September 2022

An Element of Trust and Concern can Take India-Bangladesh Ties to Next Level

The 7th round of the India-Bangladesh Joint Consultative Commission (JCC) held in June has set the stage for Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to India. To overcome the 21st-century challenges both countries announced the expansion of the strategic partnership to forge cooperation in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, startups and fintech besides jointly improving the infrastructure in railways, cross-border river management and conservation1.

Ahead of PM Hasina’s visit, the 38th Ministerial Level meetings of the Joint River Commission (JRC) which convened after 12 years finalized the text of an agreement for an interim sharing of Kushiyara River waters. India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers and JRC has identified seven rivers on a priority basis for water sharing2. JRC has extended the period of flood data sharing agreement as well. These propitious beginnings paved the road for PM Hasina’s first state visit since the pandemic.

Bracing for fresh elections in 2023, the visit is extremely crucial for Hasina to showcase some tangible gains. Pivotal for the livelihoods of the people of West Bengal and Bangladesh PM Hasina, who is perceived as a pro-India leader by the opposition raised the Teesta waters issue. Pledging cooperation, India concluded the Kushiyara River water sharing agreement, the first in 25 years since the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty. With this pragmatic beginning, India demonstrated a political will to even finalise the Teesta waters as well. India requested Bangladesh to expedite a similar pact for the Feni River to cater to the drinking water requirements of Tripura.

Besides, prioritizing ties with Bangladesh under the “Neighbourhood Policy” Prime Minister Modi opened a new chapter by settling the 41-year-old Land Boundary Agreement and accepting the maritime arbitration that ruled in favour of Bangladesh. This marked a new watershed in India-Bangladesh relations. Reciprocating India’s outreach, PM Hasina acted on anti-India elements operating on its territory to cement the ties. Additionally burgeoning bilateral trade between both countries from $9 billion to $18 billion in the last five years infused new energy into the partnership.

Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia and is the fourth largest destination for Indian exports. India is Bangladesh’s second biggest trading partner.  In 2015, Bangladesh permitted the use of Chittagong and Mongla ports for the movement of goods to and from India. Additionally, the signing of an MoU in coastal shipping that reduced the shipping time from 30-40 days to 7-10 days, provided a fresh impetus to the bilateral trade3. India is using these ports to channel trade with Malaysia and Singapore.

Indeed, the rapid pace of infrastructural development is now having a force multiplier effect on bilateral trade and boosting India’s “Act East Policy”. Through three credit lines amounting to $8 billion, India has extended concessional credit to Bangladesh, the single largest for any country for infrastructure development. This in turn improved connectivity, facilitated trade and brought the North East region close to the mainland. India has requested Bangladesh to allow connectivity between West Bengal to Meghalaya via Mahendraganj (Bangladesh).  Indeed, of the proposed restoration of the six cross-border rails in 1965, three are operational as of now and the free trails on the new railways and inland waterways have been successfully completed.

Bangladesh party to the BBIN (Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal), the sub-regional connectivity network, has expressed interest to join the India-Myanmar- Thailand trilateral highway through Tripura4. Integral to a raft of connectivity projects, Bangladesh is making gains in India’s efforts of linking North East India to the ASEAN region.  Additionally, the development of Land Customs Stations (LCS), Integrated Check Posts (ICP) and Border Haats, are playing a key role in streamlining the overland trade. Accelerated development of a panoply of connectivity initiatives besides revitalising the economy of Eastern India and Bangladesh is turning out to be a win-win situation for both countries.

Although Bangladesh isn’t heading Sri Lanka’s way, the pandemic, the Ukraine crisis and a dip in remittances have impacted its economy. Against the proclamations of forex reserves for five months imports, unusual power crisis and scheduled load shedding of 2 hours present a different story. In fact, Bangladesh’s formal request to IMF for $4.5 billion in assistance and limited access to data has raised speculations of a portending economic crisis5.

Bangladesh follows Pakistan’s model for the energy sector with nearly 85% of the electricity generated by burning fossil fuels-natural gas and liquid fuel. Ukraine Crisis has thrown the supply of these resources out of gear. As a development partner of Bangladesh, India has extended a concessional financing scheme to build thermal powered Maitree power plant at Khulna. PM Modi and PM Hasina unveiled Unit I of the power built with Indian Development Assistance and reviewed the progress of the 130-kilometre India-Bangladesh Friendship pipeline connecting Siliguri in West Bengal to Parbatipur in Bangladesh for the transport of energy supplies from Numaligarh refinery. Bolstering the energy partnership Bangladesh enlisted Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) as G2G supplier of refined petroleum products6.  

In addition to existing India’s 1,160 MW of electricity supply to Bangladesh and 1500 MW more in pipeline7, Gautam Adani announced to commission of a 1.6-gigawatt thermal power plant facility in Jharkhand with a dedicated line for exporting electricity to Bangladesh. With a massive infrastructure push, India is spearheading its diplomatic outreach with Bangladesh.

Bangladesh will graduate to developing country status in 2026 after which Dhaka can no longer avail of the benefits of a Least Developed Country (LDC). Hence, Bangladesh is eager to enter a free trade agreement with India to reduce customs duties. To accelerate economic cooperation, countries have agreed to commence talks on Comprehensive Economic Partnership (CEPA) to liberalise norms and facilitate trade in goods, services and investments.  

Analysts speculated that China’s spectre could potentially affect the India-Bangladesh ties after Dhaka welcomed Chinese investments and became the second largest market of Chinese defence supplies after Pakistan. Though Bangladesh resisted Chinese attempts to join BRI, it welcomed Chinese companies. The economic crisis in Sri Lanka and investigations of a massive spurt in tax evasion and fraudulent business operations of Chinese companies in Bangladesh have alerted Dhaka of plausible fallouts of Chinese investments.

Denouncing China’s claims of associating the recently inaugurated Padma Bridge with BRI, Bangladesh foreign minister, Mustafa Kamal warned developing countries against China’s BRI lending. On the contrary, notwithstanding the anti-India rumblings of the Bangladesh commentariat, India gifted covid vaccines, medical supplies and ran oxygen trains during the pandemic and also recently evacuated Bangladeshi students trapped in Ukraine.

Given the geopolitical uncertainties, the developmental partnership offered by India is Bangladesh’s best bet and hence PM Hasina is pressing for negotiations on CEPA. Undoubtedly, the leaders of India and Bangladesh have ushered the bilateral partnership into a golden era through productive energy partnership, power cooperation, trade and economic ties. Aside from inaugurating Rupsha Bridge, leaders witnessed the exchange of 7 MoUs on science and technology, water resources, capacity building, railways and media8.

Highlighting India and Bangladesh share common values, PM Modi pronounced, “in order to keep the spirit of 1971 alive, it is necessary that we should confront the forces that hurt our common values” calling for a strengthening of counterterrorism cooperation and security cooperation.  Illegal infiltration, human trafficking, border crimes, cow smuggling emanating from skewed demography is emerging as a potential security threat along 4000 kilometres of the porous border. An official framework for addressing this menace aside from playing a major role in securing the borders can play a key role in maintaining the social harmony along the border regions.

The India-Bangladesh bilateral partnership is making headway in terms of trade, investments, economic cooperation and connectivity. But undying anti-India rumblings and the unrelenting wave of atrocities against Hindu minorities are slowly nibbling at the goodwill. Allaying this palpable distrust, the foreign secretary in a special media briefing stated that pursuant to continuous dialogue between the governments of India and Bangladesh, “the government of Bangladesh has .. publicly as well as in private discussions also (stated) that it is fully committed as far as the safety and security of minorities is concerned. It has given these assurances both publicly and privately in our talks8.

Invariably, a robust developmental partnership with an immediate neighbour is important but the domestic concerns should also be addressed for a longstanding relationship built on pillars of goodwill and trust.


@ Copyrights reserved.

No comments: