Modi and Putin Explore New Convergences Amid Great Power Competition

With the world order going through a massive reset, President Putin’s visit to India for the annual Indo-Russian summit grabbed more attention. With Sino-Russian éntente and burgeoning Indo-US ties becoming the defining paradigms of a new world order, speculated wrinkles in the Indo-Russian ties assumed great strategic consequence.

The 20- year long uninterrupted tradition of Indo-Russia annual summit suffered a break last year due to Covid-19. Putin’s short working visit to India, his second overseas trip since the pandemic, is thus doubly significant; his first overseas visit being a meeting with the President Biden at Geneva in June of this year.

India and Russia entered into a Strategic Partnership in 2000 and unveiled the tradition of conducting annual summit. In 2010 the relationship was elevated into a special and privileged strategic partnership. The following year both the countries established India Russia Inter-Governmental Commission (IRIGC) to foster trade, scientific, economic, technological and cultural cooperation. This year marks the golden jubilee of the Indo-Russian Friendship Treaty. Buttressing this partnership, both countries have inaugurated 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue that began in Delhi on Dec 6th.

Strengthening the defence cooperation, the cornerstone of Indo-Russian relations, the ministerial dialogue renewed the technical and military cooperation for 10 years i.e., till 2031 and agreed to produce six lakh AK-203 assault rifles through Indo-Russian Rifles Private Limited (IRPL), Amethi¹. Building on this strategic cooperation, the 21^st Indo-Russian summit themed on Partnership for Peace, Progress and Prosperity headed by Prime Minister Modi and President Putin expressed satisfaction over timely assistance during the covid and specifically with respect “Sputnik-V cooperation”.

As against the speculations of an interruption in the annual summit in 2020 causing a strain in the ties, Modi and Putin held six telephonic conversations since the last summit. Putin virtually participated in the open-debate on Enhancing Maritime Security- A case for International Cooperation led by India as the President of UNSC.

Strategic reasons aside, the purchase of $5.4 billion S-400 air defence missile systems from Russia and the consequent threat of Washington’s CAATSA (Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) made it imperative for both countries to redefine and re-energise the ties. Notwithstanding America’s CAATSA threat, India resolutely pursued S-400 acquisition to defend its borders from China’s salami slicing.

Days ahead of Putin’s visit an American delegation reminded India of plausible CAATSA sanctions. America attempted to dissuade India from purchasing S-400, laying a bait of offering an advance missile defence system and citing problems in interoperability. But India remained steadfast. Though the US is miffed, a strong India is the best interest of America. In response to increased confrontations with China, America intensified ties with India to counter a rising China. America will be shooting itself in foot if it sanctions India. Despite itself, Washington is debating its future course of action.

Against these odds, at the annual summit, besides reviewing all the fields of cooperation, leaders underscored the need for putting the bilateral trade on a positive trajectory. Though both sides believed that trade doesn’t reflect the potential of the partnership, they decided to initiate negotiations on India-Eurasian Economic Union and resolved to intensify efforts to achieve a bilateral trade target of $30 billion by 2025. The volume of India-Russia bilateral trade is paltry $10 billion as opposed to India’s $100 billion trade with the US and China. One of the main pillars of Indo-US relations is trade and services. It is thus imperative that both India and Russia intensify efforts in advancing bilateral trade.

Accordingly, countries have agreed to streamline and fast-track clearances, eliminate trade barriers, finalise negotiations on bilateral investment treaty, promote mutual settlement of payments in national currencies, strengthen trade in pharma and expand cooperation in energy cooperation. India invited Russia to participate in 13 key sectors of Production Linked Incentive (PLI) under Atmanirbhar Bharat and Make in India initiative².

Defence cooperation has been and continue to be the main stay of India-Russia bilateral ties. Close to 60% of India defence inventory traces its origins to Russia. Besides, India and Russia enjoy a special defence cooperation pivoted on collaboration, co-development and co-production. Supplemented with technology transfer, India and Russia are unlikely to replicate such iconic cooperation with other countries. But the share of India purchases shrank from 70 to 49 percent between 2011 and 2015 and between 2016 and 2020³. As India seeks to indigenize and diversify defence acquisitions, both the countries recognized the need to ramp up cooperation in other areas as well to cement the ties.

Consequently, in an attempt to renew and reinvigorate bilateral ties, both the countries have signed a whopping 28 agreements in all with a focus on providing much needed impetus to economic cooperation⁴. Additionally, countries mulled on exploring the need for agreement on reciprocal logistic support for armed forces.

Unlike with other countries, India and former Soviet Union both with allegiance to socialism, traditionally favoured government to government agreements. This limited the scope of cooperation to realm of government entities even as private sector began to slowly dominate especially in India.  For a more wide-ranging collaboration now, in a departure from the past countries have now recognized need for collaboration between governments and private sector organisations with new areas avenues for joint development now being added to the list. These included-digital technologies, information protection, security of crucial infrastructure and law enforcement.

Expressing satisfaction over the rapid stride of cooperation achieved through BRICS, SCO, RIC, G20, they underscored the need for introduction of new reforms in UNSC and in particular pushed for implementation of resolutions to counter terrorism and extremism.

West’s economic sanction post Crimean annexation in 2014, has propelled Russia to cozy up to Beijing. Anti-west sentiments cemented Sino-Russian relations to the extent of the ties turning into an axis. Further, the bitter confrontations between US and China and China’s unremitting encirclement of India and incursions across the border has strengthened the strategic ties between India and US. As a result, India and Russia are now finding themselves in opposite tents.

Amid the stratification of alignments, Russia rejoiced the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and initially supported the Taliban along with China and Pakistan. While countries evacuated diplomats and shut down their embassies, Pakistan, China and Russia operated theirs. Much to the detriment of Russia’s position on Taliban takeover, the devastating effects of the burgeoning extremism, terrorist attacks began to erode the peace and stability of the Central Asian Region. The Stans which share large unpoliced border started feeling the tremors of an unstable and financially bankrupt Afghanistan. Rise of radicalism, targeted attacks on minorities and other ethnic groups, mass exodus of refugees and surge in drug trafficking began to destabilise the region.

Russia which found itself on same page with India has encouraged New Delhi to organize a dialogue with regional countries. Pakistan and China declined the invite. In their absence other countries, especially Central Asian Republics (CARs) began to share their thoughts without hesitation. At a time when India and Russia are trying to explore the areas of congruence, Afghanistan emerged as issue of mutual interest. Currently, India, Russia and Iran are finding themselves on the same page.

Prioritizing the need for a stable, peaceful and secure Afghanistan, both the countries “emphasized the respect for sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity and non-interference in its internal affairs” in an apparent dig at Pakistan. The sides appreciated the finalization of roadmap between India and Russia on Afghanistan. Reiterating their commitment to combat terrorism, in the joint statement India and Russia included LeT, a Pakistani terror group sheltering in Afghanistan. China prevented the mention of LeT in RIC (Russia India China) joint communique.

Both countries echoed similar opinions about denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, implementation of JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and supported a Syrian-led, Syrian-owned political process for Syria. Notably, the joint statement while reaffirming centrality of ASEAN in the regional security but avoided the use of the construct Indo-Pacific and instead referred it to as regions in Indian and Pacific Oceans. This comes as no surprise given Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s vehement disapproval to use of Indo-Pacific as divisive. Shortly, after the Modi-Putin Summit, he reiterated his position and slammed America’s Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China.

In pursuit of advancing the bilateral ties and shielding it against push and pull factors of the geopolitical developments, India and Russia have endeavoured to strengthen the strategic cooperation. The impact of this fresh impetus to strategic cooperation has tremendous implications for international relations. Amid the raging US and China confrontation, Russia and India which pursue independent foreign policies can emerge as a stabilizing force or even a balancing force.

Despite Russia’s close ties with China, Russia is wary of China’s growing footprint and influence in its traditional backyard, the Central Asian region. But Russia’s deepening economic cooperation and its reliance of defence and energy exports has limited its options to show China its place. To counter Beijing’s hegemonic rise, Russia is betting on a stable partnership with and a formidable defence cooperation with New Delhi. A strong India can be an effective bulwark against the Middle Kingdom. However, in an event of a clash between India and China, Russia will not openly side with India but would ensure an uninterrupted supply of defence supplies to New Delhi.

Similarly, Russia has locked horns with the West, precisely the US, over the Ukraine issue. Russia is miffed by America’s strategy of pushing European borders further to the east. Putin and Biden are at loggerheads with each other over Russia’s deployment of thousands of troops along the Ukrainian borders. In a virtual meet, Biden is reported to have warned Russia of dire consequences including blocking access to SWIFT system for money transfers. Despite, India’s close ties with the US, India will choose to remain silent.

Even as issues of convergences are beginning to shrink, the time-tested India and Russia are banking in strategic legacy to rejuvenate ties. India is no longer a third World country of 1970s. Its rapid economic progress and rising global stature has in part changed the dynamics of the bilateral ties. It has now more things in common with the West than Russia, which hasn’t managed to diversify its economy.

In its quest for more economic opportunities, an aspiring India is looking west. But when it comes to defence, Russia is India’s first choice owing to the decades of collaboration and more recently its involvement in Make in India initiative. By ignoring US threat of sanctions over procurement of S-400 Triumf Missile system, India validated its trust to India-Russia defence engagement. Besides, India has always maintained its strategic autonomy disagreeing on the issues of divergences with the US.

Clearly, two facets of India-Russia relations are emerging. Heralding the strategic cooperation, Putin through his visit has exuded new confidence in building mutual trust. By reading out China’s script on Indo-Pacific, Moscow is letting New Delhi know of its discomfort of blossoming Indo-US strategic global partnership.

Putin’s visit has successfully demolished the speculations of strategic gaps in the relationship. At the same time, massive geopolitical realignments have exposed the rough edges in the longstanding India-Russian relationship. The challenge is now to address the divergences and uphold mutual trust. The annual summit has made a first move in that direction.

As great power contestation continues to threaten the peace and stability of the region, a stable India-Russia relationship offers a promise of a multipolar Asia.

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