EAM Jaishankar’s Indian Ocean outreach to counter Chinese influence

 

Straddling the fastest growing economies and serving as conduit for significant global trade, Indian Ocean region encompassing three strategic choke points- Bab-el-Mandeb, Straits of Hormuz and Malacca Straits, the region has become arena of geopolitical contestations.  Dubbed as next theatre of “Great Game”, major players are vying to increase their presence in the region.

In the jostle for global supremacy, America and rising hegemon are trying to dominate the region. Traditionally the region has been the backyard of India and India has been the net security provider for the IOR. With around 80% of energy supplies, 43% of raw materials and 53% of exports transiting this region, aspiring economic super power China is keen on securing its life-line from the geopolitical tussles has quietly evolving an agenda¹.

Instructively, aside the traditional- Near Seas Defense, regional approach focussed on ensuring territorial sovereignty, maritime rights encompassing defensive operations in the First Island Chain- Yellow Sea, SCS and ECS, China launched Far Seas Defense. China publicly outlined this strategy in Defense White Paper 2015 and later reiterated the same in 2019. Given the changing geopolitical currents and America’s rebalancing and deployment of air and Naval forces to Asia, Chinese strategists believed that Near Seas Deployment is inadequate. As this has the potential to leave China vulnerable to being cut off to strategic choke points and SLOCs.

To fully protect the economic interests, China envisioned Far Seas Defense complementing the Near Seas Defense; devoid of limiting boundaries, with plans for a “global Navy”. Echoing the ideas of Alfred Thayer Mahan who believed that strong nations require powerful navy to protect its overseas commercial interests and the SLOCs connecting those interests. China turned the concept of active defense the guiding principle of PLA.

Steadily China increased its presence in North Indian Ocean and West Pacific Ocean region. As part of “diversified military tasks” or “non-military operations”, PLA commenced counter-piracy operations in Gulf of Aden in 2008 which is continuing till date.

In 2015, Xi abandoned the “traditional mentality that land outweighs the sea” and gave big push to securing “strategic SLOCs and overseas interests”. Under the stated objective of protecting China’s economic interests, overseas citizens and maritime trade China included the element of “go global” approach. Foreign partnerships and cooperation are pivotal for success of the Far Seas Protection.

In the pursuit of overseas basing and port access agreements, to seek the willingness of the foreign partners, China is offering various economic incentives like infrastructure development, investments, diplomatic and military engagements ². By creating a string of pearls under the Maritime Silk Road Initiative, China secured Kyuakyphyu in Myanmar, Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Djibouti in Horn of Africa.

In response to China’s resurgent maritime dominance approach, though little late, India began consolidating its foot print in IOR through port of Sittwe in Myanmar, muscular presence in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and sought access to Duqm in Oman and Assumption Island in Seychelles. China with its deep pockets is seeking to offset India as fulcrum state and net security provider of the region.

Beijing has been courting the small Island nations in IOR like the Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sri Lanka for port access across the SLOCs. Among these countries, China has special interest in Mauritius for its strategic geographic location and for fostering its trade policies. Strategically China has always relied on “Small Country First Approach”.

China made a big head way into the Western economy by signing a FTA with New Zealand, small country with high income economy in 2008. Indeed, New Zealand was the first OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) country to enter FTA with China. Interestingly, New Zealand supported China’s accession to WTO and became the first country to conclude its accession negotiations with China³. Coming to the present story, like New Zealand, Mauritius is a small country-high income economy and by concluding FTA with Mauritius China is planning to use it as a gateway to Africa.

To realise the desired goal of breaking into Europe, China entered into FTA with a non-EU, NATO country Iceland in 2013. Subsequently it signed FTA with Switzerland and now EU and China have announced a Comprehensive FTA with EU in the last week of December 2019⁴.

China and Mauritius signed FTA in October 17^th 2019 at Beijing and it has become into force on January 1^st 2021.  With an eye on larger China-Africa economic cooperation, China entered into FTA with Mauritius- the first ever African country. This has coincided with the launch of African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). AfCFTA is signed by 54 of the 55 African countries and ratified by 31 countries. Unlike New Zealand and Iceland, Mauritius is keen on positioning itself as the middle man between Asia and Africa.

For years Mauritius has been an important investment entrepot for the continent. Capitalising on its financial record, the Sino-Mauritian FTA agreed to promote, “the development of Renminbi clearing and settlement facility in the territory of Mauritius” and also “to share expertise in fintech to promote innovation in financial services”⁵.

It is no ones guess as who is going to benefit from the FTA. Mauritius is $14 billion economy with 1.3 million population and managed to export goods worth 1.1billion rupees and imported goods 31.8 billion rupees⁶(2019). Previous year the trade stood at 21:1 and this year it worsened to 30:1 (in favour of China). Intent on diversifying trade and investments, Mauritius is believed to have entered into an FTA with China.  Currently China is Mauritius largest import market closely followed by India and South Africa. Through robust economic engagement and investment in infrastructure projects China is planning to expand its foot print in IOR dominated by India.

Meanwhile, China’s increased naval presence and frequent intrusions in the Western Indian region is posing immediate security challenge to India’s maritime interests and territorial sovereignty. In response to China’s ambitious maritime strategy, Prime Minister Modi envisioned SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and revitalised ties with Indian Ocean Region maritime neighbours. In 2015, he pronounced SAGAR vision in his address to the Mauritius Parliament and elevated the IOR islands to the status of key priority partners.

Under the SAGAR initiative, India besides supplied 23 tonnes of essential medicines, half a million tablets of hydroxy chloroquine, a special consignment of Ayurvedic medicines and 14-member Medical Assistance team. After a week of launch of vaccination drive in the country, India has shipped 100,000 doses of COVID vaccine to Mauritius and additional EAM during his visit handed over 100,000 doses.

India recently, conducted a COVID-19 Management: Experience, Good Practices and Way Forward” and invited 10 neighbourhood countries which included the IOR islands- the Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles.

Doubling its efforts to make forays into IOR, in a major outreach, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar visited the Maldives and Mauritius from Feb 20^th to 23^rd.  The Maldives and Mauritius, are India’s key maritime IOR neighbours and pivotal partners in Prime Minister’s SAGAR. During his visit EAM reviewed the entire gamut of the bilateral ties and the ongoing infrastructure projects in both countries.

Unlike the Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen who bypassed the quorum of legislators and obtained the Parliament committee approval to sign the 1000 pages FTA document with China in 10 minutes, President Solih has stalled Male’s China’s levitation. Solih took recourse in ‘India First Policy” and New Delhi affirmatively responded with Neighbourhood First Policy and extended much needed financial assistance for various infrastructure initiatives with “no strings attached”.

True to its pronouncements, India has accorded highest priority to the Maldives. Within 96 hours of roll out of India’s vaccination drive, Indian-made COVID vaccines landed in Male. Additionally, Jaishankar gifted 100,000 doses of COVISHIELD to the Maldives and signed $50 million defence line of credit to facilitate capability building in maritime domain. To help the Maldivian tourism-based economy, India launched special Air Bubble travel for Indian tourists. India has also signed a deal to develop, support and maintain a Maldivian National Defence Force Coast Guard harbour at Sifvaru (Uthuru Thilafarvu) to boost maritime surveillance capabilities of Maldivian EEZ. India also reiterated support to Maldives candidature for the Presidency of 76^th session of UNGA ⁷. India welcomed Maldives joining of IORA and re-joining of Common Wealth.

Making up for the characteristic dilly-dallying, woken up China’s FTA, India has entered into Comprehensive Economic Cooperation and Partnership Agreement (CECPA) with Mauritius. This is India’s first such agreement with an African country. The FTA will bestow preferential access for export of 40,000 tonnes of sugar and 7.5-million-piece Mauritian apparel. Countries have agreed to negotiate an Automatic Trigger Safeguard Mechanism for limited number of highly sensitive products within two years of CECPA.

India is largest development cooperation partner of Mauritius. With FTA in place, Mauritius can double up as a launch pad for expansion of business and economic opportunities into continental Africa for Indian investors and pave way for revival of post-COVID economies.

 

India has extended $100 million defence credit line to Mauritius to facilitate procurement of India defence assets⁸. To shore up the patrolling capabilities India has decided to provide Dornier Aircraft and Advanced Light Helicopter Dhruv on gratis basis for two years.

True to its credentials of being a security provider of IOR, Jaishankar on his visit ramped up defence cooperation with the IOR maritime neighbours. Invoking the history connect and building on the robust people to people ties, India is now steadily building its IOR strategy. Indian origin people constitute 70% of Mauritius population.

EAM Jaishankar called on Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth and President Prithviraj sing Roopun, both Indian-origin leaders. He handed over additional 100,000 doses of COVID vaccine. Unlike China whose IOR strategy is part of its larger global ambitions, Indian Ocean, is India’s strategic backyard. Security in Indian Ocean is paramount for its territorial sovereignty and economic progress.

Above all nations are awakening to the 19^th century paradigm of preponderance of great maritime power to become a global super power. Rise of the US in the contemporary times and the unparalleled dominance of Island nation, Britain earlier signalled the same. Resonating with the Sir Walter Raleigh who theorised, “whoever holds the sea holds the trade of the world; whoever holds the trade holds the wealth; whoever holds the wealth of the World owns the World itself”⁹. China which had insignificant Navy till 1980s is the second biggest Naval power now. In quest for its global ambitions, Middle Kingdom is encroaching India’s traditional area of influence.

To counter China’s influence, India has swiftly bolstered its soft power bonds and cementing defence cooperation to buttress the maritime dimension. The role of maritime power began to dawn on India and New Delhi though late is bolstering its defenses. Jaishankar’s excellent IOR outreach will go a long way in asserting India’s regional influence in IOR.