Can Pakistan ever overcome the ideological intransigence to normalise ties with Israel?

In what can be termed as history in making, a quick succession of four Muslim countries and a Buddhist country have established diplomatic ties with Israel. The US-driven and US-mediated diplomatic outreach has paved ways for formal ties between the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and Israel.

Unlike the Abraham Accords, formal ties between and Thimphu and Tel Aviv on December 12^th amid China’s unabated expansionism has been a pleasant surprise. It is no secret that India which has close ties with Bhutan as per the 1949 India-Bhutan Friendship and the newly amended 2007 Pact, India has in part guided Bhutan’s foreign policy. Accordingly, to usher the secluded Himalayan Country into an era of development and wean it away from the pernicious Middle Kingdom’s influence, New Delhi must have brokered these ties.

Experts point out that Israel’s ties with Morocco is an outcome of Israel’s “Peripheral strategy” of reaching out to far and distant countries that have no stakes in Israel- Palestine dispute or ones that have troubled ties with its enemies. Israel’s outreach to African countries clearly fits the earlier category and the stead-fast diplomatic engagement with Arab countries alludes to the latter.

The stunning progress of Israeli-UAE ties, secret trip of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad Chief Yossi to Riyadh facilitated by US officials, reports of Indonesia and Oman lining up to forge ties together point to Israel’s rise as pivotal node in Middle East’s geopolitics. Israel’s steady elevation has caught the attention of Pakistan where the clamour for recognising Israel is gaining momentum.

In October, ‘selected Prime Minister’ Imran Khan officially acknowledged that “he is under tremendous pressure to recognise Israel”. Such advocacy by Islamabad isn’t new, foreign policy debates on Israel have become a cyclical affair. After failing to internationalise Kashmir issue and garner enough support, last year, Pakistan marshalled establishment journalists to conduct public debates on possibilities of establishing ties with Israel to gauge the pulse of the public fed on liberal doses of anti-Semitism.  Overrun by the Mullahs and fundamentalists who rebuked such an initiative, Pakistan’s Israeli advocates retired back to woods. Here is a brief overview of Pakistan’s outreach to Israel https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/should-india-be-concerned-about-pakistan-israel-formal-ties

Presently, formalisation of ties between the UAE and Israel, besides being a diplomatic milestone, has thrown the Muslim countries especially Pakistan which can come into existence on religious nationalism into a catch-22 kind of situation. Reacting cautiously Pakistan declared, “this development will have far-reaching implications”. It also added, “Pakistan has an abiding commitment to the full realization of the legitimate rights of the Palestine people, including the right to self-determination. Peace and stability in the Middle East is also Pakistan’s key priority”^1. Barely a month later, Bahrain formally forged ties with Israel. Clearly, diplomatic recognition of Israel by two major Gulf countries wouldn’t have been done without tacit approval of Saudi.

But then Pakistan which has always considered itself as the flag-bearer of Muslims; guided by the religious ideology espoused Palestine causes. By adopting a high moral ground, Islamabad has ideologically strangulated itself into a position which prevented it from taking any rational decisions. For decades, feeding on the Petro dollars from the Arab countries, religious leaders in Pakistan spewed venom against Israel and indoctrinated the unsuspected public with radical doctrines.

Pakistan and Israel are the only two nations which have come into existence on the basis of religion. But Islamabad was never favourably disposed towards Israel and never lost an opportunity to draw parallels between India and Israel and in portraying them as aggressors occupying territories. Largely guided by the doctrine of Islam solidarity as foreign policy, Pakistan never paid heed to the saner voices that batted for a recalibration of this approach.

Given the imminent benefits of engaging with Israel which included a promise of improved relations with the US, influence of Jewish lobby and purchase of the most sophisticated weaponry among other things, Pakistani establishment averred from taking a right call. Riddled with internal fissures, the illusionary Muslim World is falling off and significance of the Islamic solidarity is fading as well.

As of now, the dominant geopolitical reality of the Middle East has been the burgeoning hostilities between the Sunni bloc and Iran, Turkey. Swamped by the nuclear ambitions of Iran and Ottoman Empire resurrection agenda of Turkey, Middle East’s peace and stability has gone for a toss. Iran’s adventurous engagements in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Turkey’s implicit support the Muslim Brotherhood has eventually pushed the common cause of Palestine to a corner. To combat the nuclear ambitions of Iran, Arab countries began engaging with Israel. Formalisation of ties between Arab countries and Israel is a reflection of this new reality.

During its formative years, Pakistan has levitated to Arab World and capitalised Islam solidarity to internationalise Kashmir issue. For gainful economic returns, in the form of remittances and energy security as well, Islamabad deepened ties with Saudi and the UAE. Eventually, suffering from lack of cultural identity, Pakistan claimed to have Saudi origins. These were the times when Muslim World considered ties with Israel as Kosher. Though Pakistan toyed the idea of reaching out to Israel after India established full diplomatic ties in 1992, for the fear of antagonising the Muslim World, Pakistan disbanded the idea of recognising Israel. But continued to operate with Israel through back channels. Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri documented Pakistan’s back channel connections with Israeli sources in his book-“Neither a Hawk nor a Dove”.

For the first time in 2005, Pakistan openly disclosed about a meeting between Pakistani Foreign Minister Kasuri and his Israeli counterpart Silvan Shalom in Turkey. This was followed by an encounter between Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon at the UN². Interestingly, these interactions between two countries didn’t pave way for bilateral ties. While Pakistani leaders Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif favoured recalibration of Israel policy, Musharraf the first time initiated public debate on Israel in Pakistan in 2003. Interestingly, despite the covert contacts, Pakistan by and large considered formal engagements with Israel a taboo.

The Arab Spring, economic recession, fluctuating global of crude oil prices, rising security challenges, burgeoning terrorism prompted Gulf countries to make new strategic alignments. Arab countries began to seek new friendships wherein security and economic interests trumped Muslim solidarity. This paved way for informal ties with Israel and buttressing of relationship with India. Arab countries recalibrated approach has been at the heart of OIC’s refusal to pass an anti-India resolution in the wake of abrogation of Art 370.

Notwithstanding the generous financial aid and oil supplies proffered by the Arab countries, frustrated Pakistan demanded Riyadh to show leadership and threatened to prop up Turkey to hold the mantle of Muslim World. Pakistan’s disparaging tone shook the pillars of its sturdy relationship with Arab countries. Besides, Pakistan’s shifting loyalties to Turkey for voicing support to Kashmir issue and new found enthusiasm to promote Turkish culture clearly hinted at Pakistan’s misplaced priorities.

Drawn over by Kashmir obsession, Pakistan has become oblivious to changing contours of the evolving geopolitics. On the contrary, dumping the regressive orthodoxy of anti-Zionism, Arab countries are establishing ties with Israel. Cognizant of strategic implications, sections in Pakistan military have started floating the trial balloon to initiate public debate and evolve a positive consensus that defies any opposition to rapprochement with Israel. Rightly so, the Muslim countries and especially, Saudi Arabia has been pushing Pakistan to abandon religious zealotry and engage with Israel so as build a strong case for its formal normalisation of ties with Israel.

Pakistan is considered a paragon of Islamic ideology by the Muslim World and an official endorsement by Islamabad would ameliorate traditional hostility of Muslim countries towards Israel. Being only nuclear Muslim country, Pakistan always took moral high ground.  In this context, Saudi’s demand for the pay back of the debt, cutting off oil supplies and UAE’s refusal for forfeiture of loans and denial of visas to Pakistanis can be deemed as pressure points forcing Islamabad to revisit its Israel policy.

Indeed, Pakistan will have so much to gain by engaging with Israel, besides the assured economic and financial bounties from Arab world, Pakistan can benefit from the Israel’s technological advancements in agriculture, water conservation, purchase of advanced defence equipment purchases can bolster its national security. This will be a huge boost to Islamabad’s security and they earn the brownie points from powerful Jewish lobby and gain influence in Capitol Hill. Having deftly managed its ties with Turkey and Iran, Pakistan is now bogged down by the dilemma of losing this unique leverage by formalising ties with Israel.

However, Israel isn’t averse to idea of building ties with Pakistan and Prime Minister Netanyahu dismissed the remarks of his country’s ties with India aren’t an obstruction. In an interview, in January 2018, he said, “We are not enemies of Pakistan and Pakistan shouldn’t be our enemy either”³. Interestingly, towards end of 2018, social media was abuzz after a journal reported of Israeli jet landing in Islamabad and staying put on Pakistani territory for 8 hours. Though Pakistan quickly dismissed these reports, months later, for the first time a Pakistani Jew was allowed to travel to Israel.

This apparent softening of stance was soon dampened by the warnings of Senate Chairman Raza Rabbani, “emerging nexus between the US, India and Israel is a major threat to ummah”⁴that continued to dominate the public discourse.

Impelled by slew of normalisations the debate on Israel in Pakistan has gained much momentum. Noor Dahri, founder of British Think Tank Islamic Theology of Counter Terrorism indicated that Pakistani officials have reportedly travelled to Tel-Aviv via London and hinted at a successful meeting. Ever since the rumour mills have been speculating some forward movement⁵. If true, this pragmatic move might have potential to bring about new changes in Pakistan’s foreign policy.

But given, the prevalence and surge of vicious and vindictive politics ever since Khan’s ascent to power, a surge in wave of radical extremism that began to envelope and dominate the domestic political discourse. Pakistan is unlikely to recalibrate its Israel policy. Burgeoning religious fanaticism is hardly invoking any confidence of Pakistan shedding and dumping its zealotry. Fundamentalists have threatened establishment of dire consequences if it reconciles recognition of Israel.

With sinking political, financial and diplomatic fortunes, Pakistan is staring at an abyss, with the combined opposition already on a war path, Pakistan government might eventually put Israel issue on back burner. Clarifying Khan’s position, Foreign Office of Pakistan unequivocally rejected the baseless speculations regarding possibility of recognition of Israel. It added, “unless a just settlement of Palestine issue, satisfactory to Palestinian people, is found, Pakistan cannot recognise Israel”⁶.

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