Over a week ago, Armenia and Azerbaijan have declared marital
law as clashes erupted across their borders. While still there is an ambiguity
as who started the escalation, both sides have been accusing the other of
massive provocation, there are no signs of abatement of hostilities. Yesterday,
Azerbaijan claimed to have seized some villages, as per latest reports,
Azerbaijan second largest city, Ganja is being shelled by Armenian forces 10.
Number of causalities are ticking. As of
now, death toll stands at 220. Notwithstanding the appeals for peace by the US,
Russia and France, the warring countries haven’t signalled any intention to
pull back forces. These three countries are Co-chairs of the Organisation for
Security and Cooperation’s, (OSCE) Minsk Group set up in 1992 to resolve this
issue. Interestingly, a non-party to the whole issue, strongly backing Azerbaijan
ruled out any scope of backing down until all the Armenia ends the occupation
of Azerbaijani territories. At the heart of the current dispute between Armenia
and Azerbaijan has been Nagorno-Karabakh, a region which is legally an
Azerbaijani territory.
Historical Details
Armenia and Azerbaijan erupted into a full-scale war in
1992-94 for Karabakh that killed 30,000 people and left a million displaced.
Barely three decades later, the region is simmering with potential of lurching
into a full-blown war. Karabakh is a vestige of an historical error/conspiracy.
When the Transcausian region was incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1920-21
the borders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia weren’t drawn. On December 2nd,
1920 heading the Revolutionary Committee of Soviet Union, Stalin, as Commissar
of Nationalities, transferred the regions of Nagorno-Karabakh, Zangezur, and
Nakhichevan to Armenia. But four months later, signing a treaty with Turkey,
Soviet Union transferred the control of Nakhichevan and Nagorno to Azerbaijan.
While Nakhichevan attained the status of Autonomous Republic in 1924, Nagorno
with 95% of ethnic Armenians was conferred the status of Autonomous Oblast.
Stalin’s U-turn was part of larger plan to weaken Caucasian
resistance and strengthen Soviet control over the region. Armenians are known to be fiercely
nationalistic while Azeris welcomed communist ideology. Giving teeth to the
concept of Divide and Rule, he deliberately weakened Armenia by giving away the
region inhabited by the ethnic Armenians to Azerbaijan and similarly, he
blunted Azeris by making Nakhichevan an autonomous republic. In the process, he pandered to Ataturk who
harboured a hostile approach towards Armenia which opposed Sevres Treaty and
favoured the creation of Kurdistan on the Turkish territory. Armenia laid
claims to eastern Turkish region. Even now nationalist parties like the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF), Heritage and ASALA advocate the
concept of Greater Armenia which include parts of eastern Turkey,
Nagarno-Karabakh, Nakhichevan and Javakheti region of Georgia.
Despite strong protests from Armenia, the mountainous region
of Nagorno was handed over to Azerbaijan. On July 7th, 1923, Nagarno-Karabakh
Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) with new capital named after Armenian Bolshveik,
Stepanakert was established.
Armenians known for their nationalistic penchant always
waited for an opportunity to reverse Soviet’s decision. In 1987 when President
Gorbachev introduced Glasnost, allowing greater openness in political system of
Soviet Union, Armenians revived the reunification movement. Sporadic protests
leading to waves of refugee exodus into Baku triggered violent riots in
Karabakh and deepened hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In December, 1988 Supreme Soviet of Armenia passed a
resolution incorporating NKOA into Republic of Armenia, endorsing the move,
NKOA’s Soviet voted for secession from Azerbaijan. Expectedly, Supreme Soviet
of Azerbaijan rejected the decision. Azeri refugees from Armenia started a
pogram against Armenians at Baku escalating tensions. For long, Soviet Army
refused to intervene and allowed the tensions to intensify. Even the World
leaders chose to ignore the brewing clashes at their own peril. On September 2nd,
1989, Karabakh Soviet renamed as Karabakh National Council proclaimed
independence. Armenian militants not only established control over the entire
Oblast, but occupy surrounding Azeri villages. In response, Azerbaijan revoked
autonomous status of Karabakh and demoted it to a normal region of Azerbaijan
Republic. By this time, Armenian militants backed by Republic of Armenia gained
control over 20% Azerbaijan Republic4. Ending prolonged
hostilities, Russian mediated ceasefire agreement in 1994 which is in place
till now. Rooted in principle of self-determination and safeguarding
territorial integrity respectively, Armenia and Azerbaijan are defending
petulant hostilities.
Recent Clashes
Despite the Russian ceasefire, the tensions between the two
sovereign countries refused to die down. In 2016, two countries sparred leading
to death of 40 troops from both countries and three hundred casualties5.
After four days of fighting both countries agreed on a ceasefire. In October
2017, Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Geneva, under the auspices of
OSCE. But the meeting failed to yield any concrete results 6.
In July 2020, fighting intensified with countries blaming
either side for starting the fight. In all, 16 people including an Azerbaijani
General were killed7. In the aftermath of July fighting, Azerbaijan
parliament approved purchase of BayrakhtaTB2 armed combat drones from Turkey3.
While clashes across the borders
aren’t new, the latest round of escalations are showing no signs of receding
causing new concerns among the comity of nations with countries openly siding
and reportedly deploying fighters/mercenaries to the region.
France with third largest population of 600,000 Armenians
after Russia and the US raised concerns over the presence of Syrian mercenaries
in Nagorno-Karabakh. Similarly, Russia has raised the issue of Turkey sending
Syrian and Libyan fighters to the disputed region. While Azeri President Ilham
Aliyev and Turkey denied these charges, media agencies are rolling out interview
of the fighters dispatched by Turkey 1. The presence of
Syrian fighters mostly former ISIS cadres in Armenia, with whom Turkey has
close ties, is fuelling fresh fears of injection of non-existent Jihadi element
into the conflict. Having herded thousands of Syrian mercenaries to Libya who
turned the tide in favour of Ankara, Turkey is reportedly replicating a similar
template in Azerbaijan.
Turkey is already involved in a
power struggle with Russia in Libya and Syria and with Karabakh clash, Turkey
has opened a third front. Turkey is highly reliant on energy imports and
Azerbaijan is the home for pipelines and the thriving oil industry which is the
economic backbone of the country. It is principal supplier of oil and natural
gas to Turkey, Russia, Georgia, Greece, Bulgaria. The Trans-Caspian gas
pipeline, Trans-Anatolian Gas pipeline, South Caucasus pipeline, BTC Pipelines
pass through Azerbaijan.
Turkey’s unconditional solidarity
to Azerbaijan rooted in past also factors in various aspects like the
geographical location of Azerbaijan which is conducive for a pincer attack on
Armenia and strategic oil reserves of Baku. An expansionist Turkey under the
ruse of defending Azeri territory is seeking to station troops in Azeri
territory and intends to control oil supplies to Europe on long term.
Azeris who are of Oghuz-Turkic origin and practice Twelver
Shiism have strong ethnic and linguistic ties with Turkey and religious links
with Iran. Incidentally, Turkish leadership always supported Azerbaijan and
openly defended its position to teach a lesson to Armenia. Though Ankara
reluctantly removed embargoes on Armenia under American pressure post the 1992-94
war, they remained friendly to Azeris and lobbied internationally for them.
For the fear of endangering its oil dependence on Russia,
Turkey in 1990s refrained from openly siding with Azerbaijan. With the
completion of Trans-Anatolian pipe in 2019, Baku has stepped up oil exports to
Turkey. With Turkey’s energy dependence on Russia easing, it is taking Russia
head on. Determined to expand its geography and influential rise, Turkey under
Erdogan is defying and standing up to America and Europe as well.
Bolstering Turkic Council, Ankara is now projecting itself as
the regional leader of Middle East, North Africa, partly for Balkans and
Caucasus. In 2018, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia signed a MoU for actively
promoting areas for protection of energy infrastructure facilities. Close on
the heels of border flare-up with Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan held two week
long military drills under the established Agreement on Strategic Partnership
and Mutual Support (ASPMS). Reports now indicate that Turkey has left some of
its F-16s and crew and combat-tested strike drones on Azeri territory 8.
Turkey has even transferred accumulated experience in the use of drones, air
defense systems and multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) to Azerbaijan. Indeed,
these technologies conferred massive advantage to Azerbaijan in the “four-day
war” against Armenia in 2016 11. Strengthening strategic
alliance and bilateral partnership, Azeri President Heydar Aliev laid out, “One
Nation-two states” principle.
For all its commonalities of religion, neighbouring Iran
should side with Azerbaijan. But Azerbaijan has close defence ties with
arch-enemy Israel and procured Kamikaze drones. 60% of Azerbaijan arms comes
from Israel, while Baku accounts for significant amounts of oil supplies to
Israel. Iranian population has 10-20% of well-integrated Azeri population.
Cognizant of the impact of a strong and effluent Azerbaijan in foment Azeri
nationalism and consequent threat to its regime, Iran developed close links
with Armenia.
Amid deepening political and military cooperation between
Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia held military drills with Russia in the wake of
the July fighting and intensified diplomatic contacts with Cyprus, Egypt, and
Greece. Armenia hosts 102nd military base of Russia which accounts
for 26% of trade.
Armenia which still carries the
dark memories of 20th century genocide perpetrated by the last
stages of Ottoman Empire in 1915-23 is now taking serious objections to
Turkey’s direct involvement in the whole conflict and the military attacks
against Republic of Artsakh9.
Indeed, Turkey’s burgeoning belligerence has a major cause of
concern for the peace and stability of the region. Following Turkey’s
intransigent approach in East Mediterranean Sea, threats to invade Cyprus,
military support to the Radical Islamist Libyan government (GNA), Turkey’s
support to Qatar after the Saudi imposed blockade and direct involvement in
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Riyadh municipality removed a sign bearing Ottoman
Sultan, Solomon Magnificent and banned all Turkish imports from 1st
October 2. Turkey’s intervention in Syria, Libya and military
presence in Qatar has spooked the Arab World. Turkey in the recent past has
rubbed the Arab World the wrong way.
Turkey strongly supported Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi
against Saudi and UAE. Since then Saudi Arabia began disowning its Ottoman past
and began rewriting the school history books. In 2018, Mohammed bin Salman called
Turkey a part of “the triangle of evil” along with Iran and the Muslim
Brotherhood.
President Erdogan’s ambitions to challenge the supremacy of
the Sauds hasn’t gone well with the Saudi Kingdom and the rifts in the Islamic
leadership have been quite conspicuous in the recent past. Turkey’s
brinkmanship driven by an agenda to establish a Neo-Ottoman Empire is now
taking a toll on the regional peace. Emboldened by a dominance in the regional
conflicts, Turkey is seeking to replicate similar template in its immediate
neighbourhood.
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