Galwan Valley Incident is a
watershed moment in more than one way. This violent confrontation has changed
the strategic contours of the Indo-Chinese relations prompting India to
recalibrate its Chinese policy which is jingoistically labelled as an appeasement
policy by many noted strategists. In the aftermath of the recent India-China
standoff at Eastern Ladakh, Chinese observers tore into India’s Chinese foreign
policy and lamented the lack of resolve on the part of New Delhi to handle the annual
military adventurism of China. Prime Minister Modi’s assurances and unambiguous
statement to safeguard the territorial sovereignty subject to liberal doses of
dissection became butt of contradictions forcing the PMO office to come up with
a clarification. India’s actions remarked as too little too late and incongruent
were belittled.
Unlike in other countries where a
bipartisan agreement is reached over issues of national security, in the wake
of the LAC standoff, there has been a concerted effort to give more traction to
the Chinese apologists, and the left-leaning opposition. The negative clamour
of #surrendertochina was amplified several-fold at the behest of undermining neatly
chartered India’s foreign policy which is finding resonance with growing global
anti-Chinese sentiments since the outbreak of the pandemic. Spearheading the
regional leadership against the pandemic, India has steadily expanded the scope
of cooperation by actively collaborating with the QUAD plus grouping, G20, NAM,
revved up cooperation with middle-income countries and elevated ties with Australia
to “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”.
Notwithstanding the predicament of handling
the virus and its originator both at the same time, India refused to be cowed
down by hegemonistic ambitions signed a petition seeking an international
investigation into the pandemic, allowed two MPs to virtually participate in
the oath taking ceremony of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen and tacitly backed
WHO membership to Taiwan. While skirmishes at LAC has been a common event, the
newly appointed Chief Western Theatre Command, Zhou Zongqi, handpicked by President
Xi raked up hostilities. Exploiting fault lines of previous agreements, Zhou
approved a barbaric attack on Indian troops at Galwan Valley on June 15th,
President Xi’s birthday as a token of his loyalty. By obfuscating the terms of agreement,
China unilaterally changed terms of engagement and irrevocably broke the trust
of India.
As a responsible country, employing
the mutually agreed options of quiet diplomacy through Commander level talks
India attempted to de-escalate situation. But China continued to aver, in contravention
to agreed terms, China amassed forces and laid fresh claims to Galwan valley. Notwithstanding
India’s demand for restoration of status quo ante, China dug their
heels. Soon, the oft-repeated myth of India has limited options against China
as it lags behind in military and financial heft began to gain ground with
influential strategists rallying this anomalous analysis 1.
Economic Measures
Abandoning the hedging posturing,
India unleashed a slew of economic, diplomatic and military measures against China.
Post Galwan incident, “boycott Chinese products” has become a war cry. Without
tacitly endorsing the popular sentiment, fire walling Chinese FDI, India blocked
59 Chinese apps, the appendages of CCP. As per China’s National Intelligence Law
legally obligates the Chinese companies to share data and intelligence.
Religiously sticking to CCP dictums, Chinese apps have been stealthily transferring
user data to servers in China. By banning the Chinese apps with over 300
million users, India thwarted China’s psychological warfare, hit Digital Silk
Route ambitions, irrevocably tarnished its global reputation and facilitated
the proliferation of indigenous apps. Following the suit, the US designated
Huawei and ZTE as “national security threats”. While tangible economic
losses aren’t immediately apparent, TikTok alone is estimated to earn revenue
of Rs 2.5 Crore per day in India2. Though Global Times, vehemently denies
any economic losses, reports portray a bleak picture.
Desisting use of trade sanctions as
a strategic weapon, Telecom ministry banned all Chinese equipment, Ministry of Railways
cancelled signal deal worth Rs 471 Crores. Upping ante against China, Ministry
of Road transport and highways decided to disallow Chinese investments in MSME,
participation in Indian Highway projects including through the route of joint
venture. Placing Pakistan and China in Prior-Reference countries list, Ministry
of Power pronounced ban on power equipment imports from China 3.
Several state governments cancelled Chinese projects after Galwan clashes.
Diplomatic Measures
Expansionist moves of China nudged
India closer to the US and brought democratic nations together. As a display of
support, the US announced pulling of troops from Germany to Indo-Pacific. Dismayed
by China’s aggressive posturing the US stationed three aircraft carriers in the
region. Additionally, under the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) 2021,
US promised to offer fighter jet training detachment to India, Japan and Australia
from October 6. With India, already elevating ties with
Australia, its inclusion in the annual MALABAR exercises might eventually strengthen
the QUAD and provide it a military angle. A development which China dreaded. Japanese
Defense Minister, Tano Karo warning China of its military ambitions announced
deepening of intelligence sharing with India, Australia and the UK.
Instead of lying low, India gave a
bloody nose to China at Galwan. While India and China are still engaged in de-escalation
talks, countries condoled death of Indian soldiers and the US, France, Italy, Australia,
the Maldives, Germany, Brazil and Japan expressed support to India. President of
Tibetan government in exile Lobsang Sangay condemned the death of Indian soldiers
and slammed China. France, strategic partner of India offered to support India’s
armed forces, promised to first batch of four combat ready Rafale jets by July
end.
27 nations have opposed China’s
National Security Law for Hongkong. India which was initially silent raked up
the issue at the UNHRC, expressed its concerns. An international group of
thinktanks from 35 nations and territories openly condemned China for throttling
Hongkong’s autonomy. At the UNSC, Pakistan attempted to pin the blame of attack
on Karachi stock exchange on India backed by China. Germany and the US stalled the
resolution.
Shedding the inertia, abandoning hedging
posturing, India radically reorienting its China policy. Galwan, is the last
straw that broke the camel’s back. Motivated by India’s confrontational approach,
perhaps, Myanmar spilled beans on Chinese nefarious scheme of arming the Arakan
Army, a designated terror organisation to protect its investments in the
country. While Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) urged government to
cancel President Xi’s visit over Hongkong new security law. China is now cornered
globally. China’s hegemonistic expansionism has compounded resentment of
countries grappling with the Chinese Corona virus.
Military Measures
Gearing for a long haul at the LAC,
Indian government granted financial powers to the three services to buy new inventory
under emergency requirement procedure for up to 500 Crore. India beefed up security
across the 3488Km LAC divided into three sectors. To ensure supply of spare parts and fighter
jets amid rising tensions, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh dashed to Russia. Bolstering
India’s defence, Defence council approved the emergency purchase of 21 MiG-29s
and 12 Sukhoi SU-MKIs and upgrades to 59 MiG-29s 4. Getting
ready for Contigency-III, a collusive threat from China and Pakistan, India has
increased the vigil across LAC and LoC following reports of Pakistan rushing
20,000 troops to Gilgit-Baltistan region to assist PLA. India moved 30,000 soldiers,
artillery and mechanised infantry to fortify the Ladakh sector of LAC5.
Despite Chinese pressure, Russia has agreed to speedup delivery of S-400 batteries
by a year, three will be deployed along LoC and two across LAC.
After pushing the economic and
diplomatic levers and ensuring a robust battle preparedness to galvanise the morale
of the Indian forces, Prime Minister Modi, accompanied by Chief of Armed Staff
Bipin Rawat and Army Chief MM Naravane visited the battle front. Unlike the US
Presidents, the culture of leader of the country visiting forward posts to enthuse
troops has been alien to India. US President is Supreme Commander of Armed
Forces. But Prime Minister of India is merely a people’s representative and
hence Modi’s visitations signify indirect affirmation of Peoples support to the
Armed Forces.
Applauding the sacrifices, and supreme valour
of Indian Army, Modi paid rich tributes to the fallen soldiers and invoked the
spirit of Veer Bhogya Vasundhara, “Veer safeguard their motherland with weapons.
This is land of valorous. Our determination to ensure safety and security is as
high as Himalayas” and Saint Tiruvalluvar’s exhortation- “valour, respect,
chivalry and loyalty are the true hall marks of any Army”. Indian Army has
always upheld these values. Without naming China, Modi said, “The era of
expansionism is over. This is the era of development. A nation besieged by
expansionist motives has always been a threat to World peace. History is
witness to the fact that such expansionist forces were either defeated or forced
to retreat”. Modi asserted that bravery is prerequisite for peace and weak
can’t initiate peace indicating that India is still open for dialogue. But negotiation
and dialogue shouldn’t be construed as weakness 6.
Reflecting on the virtuosity and
civilisational values of the land, Modi said, we are the people who idolise and
worship a flute playing Krishna and Krishna who wields Sudharshan. This message
is to drive home the fact that India would honour friendship and cooperation
but wouldn’t shy away from conflict if the situation demands. With his implicit
messaging of India’s refusal to cower down, having prioritised procurement of
weapons and fast tracking of infrastructure development in the border regions,
Modi went full throttle with no holds barred approach.
For the past two months vested
interests have been discrediting Indian government’s actions imputing political
motives. Since his ascension to power, Modi has invested diplomatic capital in
China’s policy. But China’s lack of reciprocity, dogged attempts to thwart India’s
global aspirations and unceasing military adventurism has now reached a definitive
moment. While most of the World is finding it hard to stand up China, Modi has
dared to confront China. Stakes are really high. But Modi has resolved to
recast his China policy.
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