Nepal’s Cartographic Adventurism and The Way Forward

On June 18^th Nepal President Bidya Devi Bhandari signed the constitutional amendment to update Nepal’s political and administrative map containing three Indian territories- Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadura. Earlier in the day, Nepal’s 57-member, upper house or national assembly unanimously passed the second constitutional amendment bill, 2077 to amend the schedule 3 of constitution to update national coat of arms. On June 13^th the 274-member Lower House or the Pratinidhi Sabha passed the second constitutional bill. A two-third majority was required to pass the bill. 258 voted in favour of the bill none voted against it. 11 abstained the voting and four members of the indigenous Tharu community who were suspended couldn’t vote. Earlier, the author, discussed about the latest events, Indo-Nepalese territorial disputes Prime Minister KP Oli’s hardened position and vacuous assertion of ultra-nationalism (anti-India sentiments) ¹.

Through the unilateral cartographic changes, Nepal has provoked India. Despite India’s objections to the “artificial enlargement of the territorial claims will not be acceptable”, Nepal went ahead with the process of incorporating 335 sqkm of Indian territory in its new political map. Notwithstanding, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s appeal of “roti beti ka rishtaa” the Himalayan nation, resolutely brought out updated political map. Singh said, “Our relationship with Nepal is not just social, geographic, historic or cultural but even spiritual. People of India have no-ill feeling towards Nepal”.  With reference to the new political map, he said, “I must express my sense of great regret and dismay that Prime Minister Oli has moved the country into what can only be described as an irreversible confrontational posture vis-à-vis India” ². With its provocative actions, Nepal soon joined the ranks with Pakistan and China which also lay claims to Indian territories.

Prime Minister Oli’s invectives, mockery of “Satyameva Jayate”, references to Indian corona virus as more dangerous than Chinese and Italian virus twice, killing of an Indian citizen along the Sitamarhi border in Bihar by the Nepalese Armed Police Force has only attenuated the tensions between both countries.  Nepal’s no holds barred anti-India signalling at the height of Indo-China border crisis hasn’t escaped New Delhi’s attention. While Oli entirely blamed the returnees from India as the source of pandemic, several Nepalese have returned home from several countries including India. But Oli chose to single out India. Since the adoption of new political map, Nepal has upped insidious propaganda with radio channels in the border regions broadcasting songs laying claims to Indian territories and promoting anti-India content. Some channels have even started giving weather reports of three Indian territories in a bid to assert Nepal’s control.

For long Nepal accused India of its reluctance to hold bilateral dialogue of Foreign Ministers to discuss territorial dispute. But it now emerges that Oli has lied to its Parliament and people. He rejected India’s offer of talks and squarely laid the blame on Indian doorsteps for not responding ². Three weeks after releasing the political map, Nepal formed nine-member expert committee to collect evidences and historical references to back its claims. The characteristic similarity to Chinese style of unilaterally changing the status quo and making cartographic to defend its claims has been so implicit ³.

Nepal took serious objections to Indian Army chief MM Naravane’s remarks of Nepal acting at the behest of someone. His remarks aren’t off the mark. Chinese ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqui, instrumental in bringing the warring political factions together to prevent toppling of OIi government is now believed to have been the force behind Nepal’s cartographic assertion. Yanqui, who has earlier served in Pakistan and conversant in Urdu is reported to have made several visits to Oli in the recent times. Mounting evidence now indicate that Pakistan and China have been instigating Nepal to provoke India and open another front. Given Nepal’s past history to side with Pakistan and China several times in the past to irk India, this new development isn’t really a concocted claim anymore.

A day after Nepal government officially legislated new political map, Nepal communist party held a virtual conference with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to share “experience on running the party and government”. The timing couldn’t have been more suspect ¹³.

As per reports, Nepal has started deploying armed police force at 15 border posts along Indo-Nepal border in Uttarakhand ⁴.  Nepal has proposed new amends in the Citizenship law, whereby a foreign national married to Nepali men would be conferred citizenship after seven years. Madhesis and National Congress opposed the government’s move. Marriages between Madhesis who live in Terai regions of Nepal and inhabitants of Bihar are very common. This move is believed to discourage the “bread and bride relations” between Nepal and India. Similarly, Nepal has activated an Advertisement (Regulation) Act 2019 endorsed by Nepali Parliament last year under which foreign channels have to air the content without commercial advertisements, campaigns or promotional material. This move is supposed to boost the local channels and domestic advertisement companies. Indian channels are very popular in Nepal. With this policy besides controlling the content Nepal would make telecasting expensive for foreign channels. Channels are subject to heavy penalty in case of any violation and they stand to lose transmission rights as well.

Nepal is making every attempt to undercut India’s influence in Himalayan region despising the centuries old traditional, religious, cultural, linguistic and historical links. Nepal allowed the study of Mandarin language compulsory in schools ⁶. Oli’s overzealous efforts to wean Himalayan country from India-specific connections and fanning anti-Indian to shift people’s focus from his incompetence in governance is now reaching a tipping point.

Expressing displeasure over the border dispute with India, growing corruption and increasing Chinese interference in the country, disgruntled Nepalese are intensifying protests against Oli regime ⁷. Instead of focussing on domestic governance, Nepal stopped the embankment of the Lalbakeya river between pillar 346 and 347 in the East Champaran district of Bihar alleging that it is being constructed on no man’s land. After dispute over the region in 2019, both countries agreed on fresh measurement to resolve the issue. In March 2020, Nepal lifted all its objections and amicably settled the dispute. But now, Nepal is raked up the issue raising objections over height of embankment and its diversion now ⁸.

Oli who has portraying himself as the saviour of territorial integrity with vengeance is tight lipped even as China has usurped Nepalese village, Rui Gaun as a part of Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). China has pushed pillars into Nepal to complete its encroachment six decades ago⁹. Massive road construction in TAR, has led to change in river course and China is silently encroaching the northern territories of land. Nepal Agriculture Department documented that China has already nibbled away hundreds of hectares of Nepal and warned that over a period of time, they might develop them into border observation posts of Armed Police. Thus far, China is reported to have encroached 36 hectares of land due to changing course of 11 rivers.

For long, analysts blamed India’s poor deliverance as the reason for neighbourhood drift to China. But in the past few years, India made remarkable progress-operationalised inland waterways agreements, constructed first cross-border oil pipeline, facilitated transit and clearance processes for Nepali cargo, launched South Asian Satellite, under BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Multi Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) and BBIN (Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal) initiatives, India ramped up cooperation with Nepal since 2014. India which is part of the US Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) intends to play an active role in electricity connectivity with Nepal. Under the ambit of Neighbourhood First Policy, India has ratcheted cooperation with neighbours including Nepal ¹⁰. India has instituted a bilateral oversight mechanism with Nepal to monitor implementation of bilateral projects.

Within hours, Prime Minister Modi mobilised resources to assist Nepal after it was hit by massive earthquake. Unfortunately, Indian media’s irresponsible ground coverage has ruined India’s good will and solidarity. India even extended financial aid of Rupees 1.6 billion for rebuilding to quake hit Nepal. 2015 Madhesi blockage has further dampened the bilateral ties. To resurrect ties, India constituted an Eminent Person Group (EPG) in 2016. Post- blockade, to reduce dependence on India, Nepal signed transit treaty with China. But interestingly, since the blockade, Indo-Nepalese bilateral trade continued to rise ¹¹.

Nepal depends heavily on remittances, nearly 30% of its GDP accounting for USD 8 billion comes from remittances. India accounts for $1 billion of remittances to Nepal. In the pandemic when the world of going through uncertainties and the prospect of the remittances bubble going bust, the open borders between the countries, provides much needed economic cushion to Nepal. Nepalis are allowed to work and live freely in India. Nepali politicians like BP Koirala, Pushpalal Shresta, one of the founders of Nepal Communist Party have studied in Banaras Hindu University. India and Nepal have close political ties.

Notwithstanding, these deep connections, Nepal is steadily towing Chinese line. Nepal started first started bilateral military exercises with China in 2017, joined the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative). By steadily increasing investments in Nepal, Dragon has now become largest investor toppling India. With a sharp increase in Chinese influence, being the Chairman of BIMSTEC in 2018, Nepal refused to participate in the joint counter terror exercises of BIMSTEC held in India. Since Oli’s ascension to power, Nepal has steadily drifted into Chinese orbit. While India can’t match China’s financial heft, India has been increased its financial aid to neighbouring countries and expedited regional connectivity and trade related clearances.

To evade tough questions on inept handling of pandemic, beleaguered Oli, facing worst internal crisis has fomented the anti-Indian sentiments still fresh in Nepalese minds due to 2015 blockade. Oli who is puppet in Chinese hands is playing to dragon’s tunes and needling India. But India has refrained from taking any punitive actions, since any kind of restrictions would irreversibly push Nepal into China’s tight embrace.

During 72-day Dolam standoff, China used Maldives to irk India and divert its attention. While India smartly revived ties with Maldives and made it party to “India First” paradigm, Nepal unlike the Indian Ocean Archipelago suffers from an identity crisis. Since 1950 despite signing the Peace and Friendship Treaty with India, Nepal sided with Pakistan initially and later with China to have its way.

In this connection, it is important to note that India have at times treated smaller neighbour with disrespect sowing the seeds of deep divide. Undermining the dignity of protocol, the Friendship treaty was signed between Indian Ambassador and Prime Minister Mohun Shaumshere Rana. Nepal never showed any interest to abide by the treaty and wanted to amend it. But India’s approach of “either we keep it or you abrogate it” failed to make much progress with improving ties. In 1989 Rajiv Gandhi imposed blockade over discrepancies in transit treaty and Nepal’s growing closeness with China. India which aspired to see a democratic dispensation in Nepal and subjugation of Monarchy, supported Maoists. JNU served as the cradle for Nepali Maoists. Over the years, these comrades have levitated to the mothership of Maoism, China. Now, India is reaping the rewards of the same. Rise of Pro-democracy activists and Maoists changed the cultural landscape of Nepal, which has become hub of conversions. For years, Pakistan has used free borders of Nepal under the veneer of friendship to create havoc in India. China is now using Nepal to advance its plan of encircling India.

Nepal is India’s outer border with China. To counter the double pronged attack of China and Nepal, instead of hardening stance, India must boost movement of people and boost people to people connections for bilateral ties to flourish. Maoists backed by China are bombarding Nepalese with the idea of “Greater Nepal” to up ante against India ¹². Greater Nepal is concept of including the territories ceded to East India Company after the Gurkha King lost the Anglo-Nepalese war in 1816. These include parts of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Sikkim. 

China’s gameplan has been to encircle India. To defeat Chinese attempts, India must desist from adopting any tough sanctions against Nepal and exercise strategic patience. India should cultivate intellectuals, academicians, media, NGOs, civil society organisations and reach out to politicians favourably poised towards India through back channels in Nepal. With Indo-Nepalese ties on a precipice, as a bigger partner India must be considerate and understanding. India will be playing into Chinese hands by adopting tough measures and a “tit for tat approach”. Strategic patience seems to be the only way forward for India.

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