Barely ten after days after
Gotabaya Rajapaksa took over as the seventh executive president of Sri Lanka,
he made India his port of call. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the
first leaders to congratulate Gotabaya on his victory. In his first telephonic
conversation, he spoke about working together for “peace, prosperity and
security of the region” and extended an invitation to visit India. Losing
no time, Modi soon dispatched External Affairs Minister, Jaishankar Subramanian
well versed with Indo-Sri Lanka relations to prepare ground for Gotabaya’s
visit to India. This meeting turned out to be Gotabaya’s first official meeting
as a President. India’s proactive approach and alacrity underscores the
importance of strong Indo-Sri Lankan bilateral ties for peace and security of the
Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
Days ahead of Gotabaya’s
three-day visit to India, Indian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka Taranjit Singh
signalled India’s interest to make a fresh beginning. In line with India’s
intentions to deepen ties with Sri Lanka, after the ceremonial Red-carpet
welcome at the Rashtrapati Bhavan, Gotabaya said, “My expectations are very
high and I want to, during my tenure as the President, bring relationship
between India and Sri Lanka to a high level. We of course have a longstanding
friendship, historically, culturally and politically. At the same time, we need
to work together for the benefit of India and the people of Sri Lanka on
security as well as economic development”. Gotabaya’s optimistic remarks has
in one fell swoop demolished the cynicism of naysayers who keep harping about
the India’s disastrous accord with Sri Lanka. His pragmatism demonstrated an
inclination to offload the baggage of the past and embark on a journey of
stable and reliable friendship.
The Indo-Sri Lanka accord has
irrevocably damaged bilateral ties. Beijing capitalised on the rifts in the
Indo-Sri Lankan relations and smartly pushed itself into Indian neighbourhood.
China’s seeping penetration posed fresh challenges to India and forcing New
Delhi to reconnect with the region. Unveiling the Neighbourhood first policy,
Modi endeavoured to revamp India’s ties. Scripting a fresh beginning to
Indo-Sri Lankan relations, Modi visited the island nation in 2015 becoming the
first Indian Prime Minister to visit Sri Lanka in 28 years. Aside bolstering
assistance towards the rehabilitation of the war ravaged Tamilians and inking
infrastructure development projects, as token of tangible expression of
friendship and support, India launched “Suva Seriya”, a prehospital care
ambulance service initially for the Western and Southern provinces in August
2016. By August 2018, India expanded it to seven more provinces. Invoking
cultural ties, Modi attended the Vesak Day Celebrations in 2017. Expressing
solidarity to the country ripped by the serial blasts, Modi travelled to
Colombo in June days after he took charge as Prime Minister for a second time.
Indo-Sri Lankan ties which took a
toll under the decade long Rajapaksa regime from 2005 to 2015 showed signs of
revival under leadership of Sirisena. But infighting, inept governance,
political squabbling and glaring administrative lapses in national security
ensured their defeat and Rajapaksas’ romped home victory in the 2019
Presidential elections. It was largely believed that with a China-leaning left
regime in power in Nepal a pro-China Rajapaksas’ return in Sri Lanka is India’s
worst nightmare. Aside their overt Chinese leanings, Rajapaksas having
outmanoeuvred the hedging game are known for their authoritarianism. India
which has kept its ears close to the ground, in the past two-years built
bridges of friendship with Rajapaksas and Buddhists, the main constituents of
the Sinhala wave. Cognisant of imminent collapse of the Sirisena regime under
the burden of its own political inconsistencies, Modi had an informal meeting
with Mahinda Rajapaksa in June.
Known to be a polarising figure,
Gotabaya’s fraught nature of electoral victory singularly powered by an
overwhelming Sinhala majority confirms the same. Besides the vital challenges
of reviving dwindling Sri Lankan economy and national security, largely
denounced by minorities, Gotabaya also faces the tough task of earning the
trust of Tamil minorities. India being the second largest economy in the
continent with a proven counter terrorism potential and key stake holder in
rehabilitation of Sri Lankan Tamils is his best bet.
Unlike the previous Indian
leaderships, Modi seems to have earned the trust of neighbours. On the eve of
Gotabaya’s visit to India Sri Lankan newspaper Daily mirror editorial wrote- “Prime
Minister Modi is a man of conviction and courage. He has the backing of his
people. He does what he believes is best for India, whether or not the World
understands or appreciates. He wouldn’t hesitate to advocate such thinking for
his friends in his neighbourhood”. Beyond mere lip service, Sri Lankan
strongly believes that Modi can deliver. This kind of pragmatism is not lost on
Gotabaya who is a strong and decisive leader. The one hour long one-on-one
discussion between the leaders, on the issues of national security and economic
development attests the resolve of both leaders to build a strong relationship.
Separated by a distance of 12
nautical miles, geographically India is Sri Lanka’s closest and the only neighbour.
Succinctly highlighting the significance of Indo-Sri Lankan ties, in the press
meet after the bilateral dialogue, Modi said- “A stable, secure and
prosperous Sri Lanka is not in India’s interest but also in the interest of
entire IOR”. He stated that Sri Lanka is vital part of India’s
Neighbourhood first policy and SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the
Region) doctrine. Owing to its strategic geographical location, Sri Lanka will
have an impact on the emerging contours of Indo-Pacific as well.
Prioritising relationship with
Sri Lanka, Modi signalled that both countries must be aware of the
sensibilities and securities of each other countries. Building upon the
foundational frame work of the historical ethnic, cultural, religious,
linguistic and civilizational linkages and keen on strengthening multi-faceted
relationship and cooperation, India announced financial assistance to Sri
Lanka. This includes a $400 million Line of Credit (LOC) towards infrastructure
development, expediting the use of $100 million LOC for solar projects and a
special $50 million LOC to combat terrorism. Clearly, India’s support in terms
of finances aren’t close to Chinese investments, but India’s generous offer of
assistance in intelligence sharing and crucial cooperation in tackling the
Islamic terrorism which is finding its roots in the island nation is highly
significant.
Sri Lanka which has cultivated an
extensive intelligence network has been instrumental in crushing the LTTE and
ending the 26-year old civil war. But radical Islamic terror is a different
ball game and India’s support and assistance will help in extricating the
fledging terror networks in the island. Indeed, the counter terror cooperation
besides unearthing terror launch pads in the island can effectively safeguard
India against Islamic terror attacks emanating from Sri Lanka.
In this context, it must be
appreciated that while Sino-Sri Lankan ties rest on the pivot of economic
assistance, Indo-Sri Lankan ties are more intricate and multi-dimensional.
Rajapaksas who are known for their nationalistic approach understand the need
for strong and stable relations with India.
Even now Tamil leaders accuse
central leadership for failing in their responsibilities towards Sri Lankan
Tamils. Highlighting India’s concerns towards them, Modi raked up the issue of
implementation of the 13th amendment, which seeks establishment of
provincial council system and devolution of power to nine provinces with
Gotabaya. During the press meet, Modi announced construction of 46,000 houses
with Indian assistance for the internally displaced people in the Northern and
Eastern provinces and ensured early completion of 14,000 houses for Indian-origin
Tamils in Sri Lanka. Another issue that plagues Indo-Sri Lankan ties has been
of exploitative fishing of Indian fishermen in Sri Lankan waters. Leaders have
reportedly discussed this issue in the bilateral talks and Gotabaya has pledged
to release Indian boats and fisherman in Sri Lankan custody.
While analysts wish to address
India’s proactive approach in engaging with Sri Lanka through the prism of
China, there are many aspects to Indo-Sri Lankan besides the security aspects.
Sri Lanka’s defence acquisitions and close ties with Pakistan also raises India’s
hackles. In is election agenda, Gotabaya advocated a neutral foreign policy.
Mindful of India’s redlines Gotabaya affirmed, “Sri Lanka will not be party
to any activity that could be a security concern to India” at the
Presidential Banquet. Elaborating Sri Lankan foreign policy, in his interview
to Hindustan Times, he reiterated, “We genuinely want to strengthen our
relationship. I have always said that we don’t want to do anything which will
jeopardise the security of India or act against the concerns of India in any
way”.
Sri Lanka with external debt of
66% to its GDP has currently the lowest growth rate of 2.3% in South Asia
baring Pakistan. Besides the Chinese loans, indiscriminate corporate borrowing
from external agencies backed by government guarantees in previous regime have
intensified island’s financial woes. Curbs on lending and financial assistance
from IMF and other European agencies owing to blatant human rights violations
aggravated economic crisis. To overcome, this mounting debt burden, previous
regime signed 99-year lease of Hambantota port with China to defray the $1.1
billion loan. But this hasn’t offered any reprieve. On the contrary, financial
crisis exacerbated as tourism sector suffered a slump post Easter attacks.
To avoid massive macroeconomic
instability, Gotabaya is inviting investments from India, Japan, Australia,
Singapore and the US. Referring to the Hambantota lease as a threat to national
security, Gotabaya announced that his government is working towards
renegotiating the deal. Though strategists are ruling out any reworking on
transaction of a sovereign agreement, Rajapaksas having woken up by the
fallouts of the BRI have made it a campaign promise. While this doesn’t
necessary mean that China will stop making forays into the island. But this
opens up door for India to step in and offer assistance in reconstruction of
Sri Lankan economy. To this end, India should reconsider reviewing the trade
agreement and reduce the trade levies and increase mutual interdependence. A tangible
economic cooperation and a balanced bilateral trade can go a long way in
enhancing trust and deepening ties.
Through candid discussions Modi
and Gotabaya have explored immense opportunities for fostering cooperation. Straddling
along the commercial shipping lanes and strategically in the Indian Ocean, Sri
Lanka is pivotal for India’s security and the island nation must be sensitive
to New Delhi’s concerns.
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