Monday 17 June 2019

Modi 2.0 snubs Naya Pakistan


Riding high on the efficient delivery of welfare schemes and national security credentials Modi returned back to power with bigger mandate. Imran Khan joined all other world leaders in sending congratulatory message to Modi on his spectacular victory. As if preparing ground for resumption of talks between India and Pakistan, Khan has even called Modi. Known for his pragmatic outreach and keenness in revitalising ties with neighbourhood, analysts believed Modi would roll out the 2014 script. Much to the surprise of Pundits, Modi royally ignored Pakistan. He thrashed hopes of Pakistani lobby who anticipated Modi’s invite to Khan for the swearing in ceremony. Instead, giving a massive fillip to India’s eastward engagement he invited BIMSTEC leaders. Even before a campaign for resuming talks by the usual suspects could gain momentum, Pakistan showed its true colours by harassing guests invited to India Mission’s Iftar party in Islamabad.

Pakistan’s eagerness to engage with India became stronger as delegation level talks of FAFT (Financial Action Task Force) supposed to take stock of its grey-listing neared and with its tottering economy slumping to 157 Pakistani Rupee for an American Dollar. Forex reserves touched a new low. Inflation reached double digits. Indeed, in the first week of June, Pakistan took cursorial decisions of imposing curbs on Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) chief Hafiz Saeed and announced a cut in defence budget reinforcing its intent of complying with FATF guidelines.  A reality check reveals that Pakistan simply refrained from increasing defence budget and termed this as voluntary cut. Even its much-touted propaganda of shutting down 11 terror camps seems to be reversible with Pakistani watchers confirming it as temporary move. Coming under intense international pressure of being downgraded to FATF black-list Pakistan is now resorting to some face-wash measures.

After Pulwama attacks, India held talks with delegates of major countries and apprised them of Pakistan’s state-sponsor terrorism. Invoking right to defend, India launched Balakot attacks after Pakistan’s inaction. International community supported India’s retributory strikes with no civilian casualty. Simultaneously, India unleashed a slew of retributory economic, cultural and political measures. With the designation of Masood Azhar as international terrorist, India not only scored a diplomatic victory but managed to successfully isolate Pakistan. Despite the setbacks Pakistan which managed to get $6 billion bail out package from IMF believed that it could even hoodwink and convince India to resume talks with its seemingly perfunctory clamp down measures on terror.

For the past seven decades, after every terror attack, international community always thrusted the burden of resumption of bilateral talks on India. After Khan’s second letter to Modi for talks, White House announced that Pakistan should prepare conducive environment to resolve the bilateral tensions. This marks the demolition of Pakistan’s orchestrated portrayal of India as aggressor.

Post Balakot attacks, Pakistan has closed its airspace posing severe inconveniences to airlines, travellers. Logistics of international travel has increased substantially. But Pakistan has shown no sign of opening up airspace creating a false notion of threat from India in the international community. India eased restrictions on airspace from June 1st but Pakistan didn’t reciprocate.

With Modi set to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Indian officials requested Pakistan to allow the Prime Minister to fly through Pakistan. Several news reports indicated that Pakistan “in principle” agreed to open air space. But Pakistan’s dilly-dallying tactics evoked suspicions of its intent. Pakistani decision makers eventually perceived this favour as weakness and willingness of India to compromise. Denying Pakistan, the pleasure of having an upper hand by way of bestowing concessions, Modi avoided Pakistani airspace. Instead he took a longer route of flying via Iran, Oman and Central Asia. This not only reinforced India’s firm stance of talks and terror can’t go together but exposed Pakistan’s hostile act of inflicting costs through closure of airspace. Though Pakistani media and lobby groups have been working overtime to portray Khan as messiah of peace, Islamabad’s insincere, half-hearted and dishonest measures unmasked Pakistan’s duplicity.

Despite repeated official clarifications obstinate shutter cocks and Pakistan sympathisers began to inundate the political dispensation with the narrative of need for breaking ice with Islamabad. Given subcontinent’s obsession with Indo-Pakistan official as well as unofficial engagement, SCO Summit, where the Prime Ministers of both India and Pakistan are supposed to meet topped the strategic conversation. People expected “Ufa” kind of moment, where Indian Prime Minister Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in 2015 held bilateral talks along the sidelines of SCO summit. Media trumpeted this meeting as a ground breaking event. But Pakistan reciprocated this engagement with Pathankot attack. The realism of Pakistan’s peace overtures was busted. Modi’s peace initiative suffered a huge blow. Indeed, Ufa had been just one of many hyped-up meetings between heads of both government which were artificially blown up for its optics.

Putting an end to the theatrics, the art Pakistan has excelled in, Prime Minister Modi avoided any kind of interaction with his Pakistani counterpart though they crossed each other on seven different occasions during the course of two-day long SCO summit.  Reports say that Khan has congratulated Modi on his electoral victory and both leaders exchanged pleasantries on the concluding day of the summit. While India is under no pressure whatsoever now to engage with Pakistan, Khan who is facing international rebuke for supporting terror, is desperate to initiate talks. At SCO summit, taking an indirect dig at Pakistan, Modi lashed out at nations sponsoring terror and condemned all forms and manifestations of terror. He urged nations to bolster counter terrorism cooperation to make this world a safe place to live. Once again to the discomfort of Pakistan, terror topped the agenda of SCO summit followed by economy and connectivity.

Successive Indian leaderships adopted policy of blow hot, blow cold kind of policy.  Pakistan extracted its pound of flesh due to India’s ambivalence. India never displayed a steely resolve to bring Pakistan’s to its knees. With retaliatory Balakot strikes Modi government has discovered options below nuclear threshold. Post-Pathankot attack, India has not engaged with Pakistan and maintained a hard-line position.  Time “Naya Pakistan” realise that much bolder and audacious Modi 2.0 it not ready to make concessions without commensurate returns.

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