India making up for lost ground in Maldives

The political turmoil in Maldives which has been brewing since February came to an end after the Presidential elections in September. But even after Mohammed Solih’s surprise victory in the elections, the situation in Maldives remained turbulent as President Yameen refused to concede defeat claiming rigged elections. After congratulatory messages began to pour in for Solih and under international duress perhaps, Yameen reluctantly agreed to step down. Since September people who closely follow Maldives believed that Yameen may not give-up power rather easily. But despite some anxious moments, Solih has sworn in as seventh president of Maldives on November 17^th in an event attended by representatives from 46 countries. Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was invited to the swearing in ceremony accepted the invitation and attended the event. His presence not only reinforced India’s interest in resetting ties with Maldives but also ensured smooth transition of power.

Lying along Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) in the Indian Ocean, 500 nautical miles from shores of India, a stable Maldives is extremely pivotal for India’s security. China having adopted aggressive power projection mode aside asserting dominance in the South China Sea (SCS) region turned its attention to Indian Ocean. Dragon ventured into the region under the guise of participating in anti-piracy operations gave wings to its encirclement policy of India. China’s economic development is dependent on the energy imports from the middle east and for its safe and unrestricted passage through the seas, it unveiled “String of Pearls”. Accordingly, it started establishing naval bases closer to the SLOCs and choke points. In the process, it fostered close economic and trade links with India’s immediate neighbours in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Maldives comprising a chain of 26 atolls and spread in the expanse of the Indian Ocean and located in Arabian Sea garnered Chinese attention. In 2011 during President Nasheed’s regime China established embassy in Male ever since Chinese investments through infrastructure projects began to flood the island.  Bilateral ties rapidly gained momentum under President Yameen who came to power in 2013. The engagement reached such dizzying heights that Yameen cancelled Male airport expansion project allotted to Indian conglomerate GMR and awarded it to a Chinese company, Beijing Urban Construction Group Company. To curry favour China, Yameen promulgated constitutional amendment to allow foreigners with investment of more than $1 billion to own land in Maldives. Upon completion of the project at least 70% of the land must be reclaimed from ocean. Known for its reclamation prowess, China was tipped to be a major beneficiary.

In a span of five years, China initiated dozens of infrastructure projects and became leading investment partner of Maldives. Despite domestic opposition, Yameen leased Feydhoo Finolhu an uninhabited island close to Male airport for 50 years at a throw away price of $ 4 million. He signed both OBOR (One Belt one Road) and AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank). The sheer number of the projects and absence of transparency in Chinese projects awarded without open bidding at inflated prices raised fears of massive corruption. Maldivians worse fears came true when days before his swearing ceremony Solih met Chinese ambassador who apprised him of outstanding debt to China as $3 billion (twice the Maldives yearly revenues) against official estimate of $1.5 billion. Staggering debt amounts has skewed the precarious debt-revenue balance tourism dependent Maldivian economy. Maldives is joined the club of countries ensnared by debt-trap diplomacy of China. Panic signals in Maldives conforms to the fact that China’s touted as “win-win” development is a big hog-wash. Viewed through a geopolitical prism, crisis in Maldives was thus far dubbed as fall out of great power rivalry between India and China. But now it turns out that China’s debt trap diplomacy has been instrumental in pushing the island to an edge. Under the pretext of guarding its investments China is interfering in political, economic affairs of independent countries paving way for “neo imperialism”.

Chinese interference into affairs of its partner nations has become so prominent that its investments have been major electoral issue in Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Maldives. Prime Minister Mahathir Muhammed who swept polls in Malaysia aside initiating corruption probe against the pliant ousted leader Najib Razak has even cancelled infrastructure projects worth $22.5 billion, Pakistan revised $62 billion worth CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor), Myanmar scaled back the Kyuakphu port development project to $1.3 billion from $ 9 billion and several African countries are mulling cancellation of Chinese investments to avoid debt trap. With a seemingly pro-India regime in charge in Maldives, India is believed to have checkmated the dubious agenda of China. Maldives perilous economic situation vindicates India’s reservations towards BRI. Despite unprecedented Chinese efforts to have India on board in its infrastructure initiative BRI (Belt Road Initiative), New Delhi refused to fall for China’s charm offensive and held its ground. Reinstatement of Solih government is thus a of double delight for India as it busted the China’s “win-win” proclamation regarding BRI.

To turn the uninhabited islands into tourist destinations, Yameen leased them out to private companies against government laws. Chinese companies leased over seven islands through closed bidding. To have its way in Maldives, China supported Yameen’s authoritarian regime. When political crisis erupted following the proroguing of Parliament in Maldives, several countries called for restoration of democracy in the island. But China despite stating non-interference in domestic affairs of other countries rushed a fleet of 11 frigates towards Indian Ocean signalling its support to despotic Yameen regime. December last year, Yameen has rushed the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China even as opposition staged a boycott questioning the fast-tracking of the process without legitimate scrutiny. This raised serious doubts about Yameen’s intentions who in 2014 had diverted tens of millions of tourism revenue to his personal accounts. Three months later it emerged that Yameen obtained the approval of Parliament for the Protocol for Establishment of Joint Ocean Observation Station between Maldives and China during the ratification of FTA. As per the agreement China can establish an observatory on Makunudhoo atoll along the one the most important shipping route in Indian Ocean which is close to Indian waters. This intensified India’s fears of China’s strategic plans of establishing a permanent military base in its backyard.  Maldivian saga has even exposed China’s grave disregard for democracy, human rights violation, rule of law and its callous indifference in carrying out business with despotic leaders.

Maldives has always advocated India First Policy. But Yameen singularly drifted the island nation into Chinese orbit. He even steered country away from cosmopolitan disposition towards dogmatic Islam ideology. In the past five years, the archipelago has turned into a hot bed for radical extremism with Yameen deepening ties with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

Giving massive fillip to strained Indo-Maldivian relations under Yameen. Ending Maldivian isolation under previous regime, India convinced IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association) members to admit Maldives into the club. On November 2^nd Maldives officially became member of IORA. At a time when strategists were writing down Modi’s “Neighbourhood First Policy”, with his extensive outreach to Maldives, he silenced critics as of now. Four and half years into his term, Maldives is the only country Modi hasn’t visited in the immediate neighbourhood. In a bid to make up for the lost ground in Maldives under Yameen, before departing for oath-taking ceremony, in a facebook post Modi wrote “I will convey to the new Maldivian government …. The desire of my government to work closely for realisation of developmental priorities, especially in the areas of infrastructure, health care, connectivity and human resource development”. 

Modi was the only highest ranked official to attend the inauguration ceremony. Both leaders held bilateral talks after the ceremony and released a joint statement. It states, “During the meeting, both leaders agreed on the importance of maintaining peace and security in the Indian Ocean and being mindful of each other’s concerns and aspirations for the stability of the region”. They expressed immense confidence in “renewal of close bonds of friendship and cooperation”. India has been traditional partner and security provider in the Indian Ocean region and maintains close relations with its neighbours. But Yameen’s embrace of China has created rifts in the historic relationship. Solih promised an “India First Policy” for Maldives and a day after Modi’s return, Maldives indicated that it would keep helicopters gifted by India. In June Yameen has issued notice to India to remove the helicopters and even refused to renew visas of Indian Navy personnel stationed in Maldives for the maintenance of the choppers. Infusing fresh energy in bilateral ties Modi assured Solih of “India’s firm commitment in assisting the Maldives to achieve sustainable social and economic development”. Solih sought help from India and US to pull out economy from a mountain of debt and in tracking billions of Rufiyaa missing from the state coffers due to corruption and embezzlement.

Though Solih avoided making any mention of China and debt trap in his inaugural address, critics in Maldives minced no words that China led investment project boom has plunged country in debts. They expressed concerns over the lopsided trade under FTA with China. While Maldives imported goods worth $342 million, exports to China between January to August accounted for mere $265,270. Former President Nasheed currently the adviser of Maldives Democratic Party termed the FTA as “one-sided treaty”. Soon a senior law maker announced that Maldives will pull out of FTA. While China expressed faith that Maldives will make “right choice” on FTA, the ongoing China’s trade war with US and American allegations of China’s corrupt practices now stand vindicated. Maldives announcement comes a day after China was snubbed by Nauru and earlier by Papua New Guinea.  In a marked drift from the China’s orbit Maldives is all set to re-join Common Wealth Group.

India has to be very cautious of China’s fierce geostrategic ambitions and its justification of encroaching territories in India’s maritime vicinity. Having imbibed the strategies of European colonists, China is using similar nefarious tactics of bribing and rescuing pliant leaders from international scrutiny and sanctions. Dismantling of democracy and chaos in Sri Lanka serve as a classic example to China’s debt imperialism. Unfortunately, despite the fears of entrapment, Maldives can’t risk cancelling Chinese investments. But India can earn the trust and faith of neighbours through a benign rise and by acting promptly on its promises.

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