China’s Muscular Policy towards Taiwan Part-II

China’s Initial Charm Strategy

President Hu Jintao of China unveiled Taiwan charm strategy and initiated cross-Strait economic agreements for eventual economic integration of Taiwan with President Ma Ying-jeou of KMT. Hu wanted to create economic reliance that would favour reunification. But China’s Economic Cooperation Frame Work Agreement (ECFA) failed to enthuse Taiwan as the expected GDP rise from such an agreement was less than 2%. In a bid to woo, Taiwan, China allowed it to ink Free Trade Agreements (FTA)s with Singapore and New Zealand. Beijing didn’t object to Taiwan’s participation as an observer at World Health Assembly.  But taken aback by Taiwan’s tepid response to economic integration Beijing tightened Cross-Strait ties and prevailed on Ma to expedite Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) in 2014. Suspicious of Chinese intentions, students’ unions and civic society launched protests termed as Sunflower Movement, for passing the bill without a clause by clause review. Giving in to the agitations by students, KMT halted economic integration. Subsequently in 2016 elections, DPP backed by students emerged victorious wining both presidency and legislature elections for the first time.

President Tsai, unlike KMT refuses to be dictated and rejected the 1992 consensus. It is believed that in 1992, semi-government representatives from PRC and ROC met at Hong Kong and agreed that there is one China but maintained different interpretations of what “one China” means. Interestingly, such agreement was acknowledged publicly retroactively after several years. Indeed, Shin Chin of KMT coined the meet as “1992 consensus”. Interestingly, Taiwanese version published on public domain states, “Both sides of Taiwan Strait agree that there is only one China. However, the two sides of the Strait have different opinions as to the meaning of ‘one China’. To Peking, ‘one China’ means “PRC”, with Taiwan to become “Special Administrative region” after unification. Taipei, on the other hand considers, ‘one China’ to mean ROC founded in 1911 and with de jure sovereignty over all of China. The ROC however, currently, has jurisdiction over Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu. Taiwan is part of China and the Chinese mainland is part of China as well”. Suffice to say, while this is no consensus by any logic, Tsai bats for formal independence and backs referendum in island’s sovereignty. Tsai’s refusal to 1992 consensus frustrates Beijing which is keen on unification. This is huge blow to CCP which is striving hard to turn people’s attention away from the slow economic growth, burgeoning debt,  ageing population, growing negative perception towards BRI (Belt Road Initiative). Besides, Xi in his acceptance speech as President vowed to “defeat separatist attempts for Taiwan independence”. Reinforcing that he wouldn’t allow any force to separate any part of Chinese territory from China, called it “China Dream”.

After Beijing’s rapprochement efforts under the pro-China KMT regime failed, China embarked on a new strategy of isolating Taiwan internationally, plotted schemes to debilitate Taiwan’s semi-conductor industry, inflicting blows on economy, luring Taiwanese intellectuals orchestrating a brain-drain, creating social unrest, carried out campaign to undermine democratic institutions and containing Taiwan’s identity. With no compunction to win hears and minds of Taiwanese, Beijing abandoned soft approach.

Lebanonization of Taiwan

In December 2016 Tsai made a congratulatory phone call to President Trump and alarmed by Trump’s remarks on “One China policy” Beijing intensified coercive measures. Global Times in an editorial subsequently warned that China might “Lebanonise” Taiwan. Among slew of options, Beijing even employed the “triad gang” or the “underground front” who spied on leaders and threatened anti-Beijing elements. These groups were planted in Taiwan and Hong Kong. Mass arrests of students participating in the pro-democracy protests revealed that triad gangs who had close links with CCP have stirred up violence during the Sun Flower movement and Occupy Central. These gangs were found to involve in mobilising gangsters to disrupt rallies, carrying out organised crimes and stoking violence to undermine the democratic institutions. CCP has always maintained good contacts with Nationalists (pro-Beijing leaders) in Taiwan. CCP’s frontier group, China Unification Promotion Party (CUPP) led by Chang An-le who was head of the Bamboo Union and served jail sentence in America relocated to Taiwan in 2013. He establihe shed ties with the pro-China groups and State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO). CUPP and its affiliates joined the protests on pension reforms, legalisation of same sex-marriages. It even entered electoral fray in 2016 and performed very poorly as expected. But their objective is not winning elections but to gain legitimacy. Contesting elections is an attempt to mask real identity of CUPP as a crime organisation and to portray it as socially relevant responsible group. Also, CUPP actively promoted leaders and pro-Beijing narratives by participating in the democratic process of elections. In fact, this strategy of mainstreaming crime was a common practice in communist countries like Russia. China’s all-weather friend Pakistan took out a leaf from this strategy and allowed terrorists to contest in recently held elections. By objectively blurring the line between the criminal activity and the political agitation, Beijing made it exceedingly difficult for the Taiwan law enforcing agencies to act of these motivated miscreants. These groups are co-opting other players who are keen on unification.

These pro-Beijing groups have access to sophisticated weapons. Taiwan authorities once recovered huge cache of arms routed to Taiwan via Philippines and Hong Kong. Beijing has been cultivating non-state actors to destabilise civil society in Taiwan and making desperate attempts to tear the “democratic fire wall” of Taiwan. Beijing is making every attempt to disrupt the normal democratic functioning and challenging the political parties which are striving hard to create a special identity for Taiwan. In yet another case of intimidating Taiwan’s civil society, China charged Lee Ming-cheh, a human rights activist from Taiwan who entered mainland China from Macau with “subversion of state power”. Since his detention, China hasn’t produced any evidence for his purported crimes and denied any contact with family members. While his wife has carried out a campaign to free her husband and even testified before US House of Representatives Committee. As of now there hasn’t been any progress in this case so far.

Diplomatic Coercion

In 2016 China officially snapped official channels of communication with Taiwan. On the diplomatic front, China is making every attempt to isolate Taiwan globally. With a promise of bountiful investments China is forcing Taiwan’s allies to accept “One China policy” and severe ties with Taipei. In the past 18 years, 14 countries deserted Taiwan. Since 2016, China has intensified its anti-Taiwan campaign and as a result, the last of the few friends were forced to leave Taiwan’s tent. Sao Tome and Principe disregarding the 20-year friendship treaty with Taiwan called off ties and entered Chinese orbit in 2016. Panama, Dominic Republic and Burkina Faso soon adopted a similar line. Taiwan is now left with 18 allies many of them poor and impoverished nations in Pacific and Latin America. Worryingly even Taiwan’s ally Vatican City is now making formidable attempts to build ties with China. Last week China urged US not to allow the stop-over of President Tsai in US on her way to Belize and Paraguay. President Tsai’s stop- over in US comes at the height of US-China trade tariff war. While the US hasn’t responded to China’s request it would be interesting to see how US will use its informal ties with Taiwan to hedge China.

Tourism as political tool

Retaliating Tsai’s refusal to endorse “One China Policy”, Beijing imposed restrictions on travel to Taiwan. As many as 3.4 million mainland Chinese tourists visited Taiwan in 2015, each spending an average of US$232 per day and total tourism revenue of US$788 million constituted to around 1 per cent of Taiwan’s economy. After Beijing’s effective South Korean tourism ban, it began to use tourism as political tool against Taiwan. Since 2016, there has been perceptible drop in mainland Chinese visitors to island affecting the economy. To make up for fall in numbers Taiwan started wooing Muslims of China and visitors from South East Asian countries by introducing visa-free entry. In the meanwhile, boosting ties with Taiwan, Trump administration passed Taiwan Travel Act in February allowing reciprocal high-level visits between both countries.

Succumbing to China’s growing clout, Taiwan was denied invitation to attend the World Health Assembly (WHA) in 2017 and 2018. Taiwan has attended WHA for nine years as observer of World Health Organisation (WHO). It was barred from attending International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) triennial assembly and Interpol Annual meetings. Despite Taiwan’s appeals, ICAO snubbed Taiwan under pressure and remained a mute spectator making Taiwan’s isolation complete. In contravention to the agreed principles regarding the operation of air routes over cross-straits, undermining the safety and security of Taiwan, China is operating flights on restricted routes. PLA troops are now flying in these routes snooping over Taiwan.

Simulating Invasion

China’s largest carrier, Liaoning inaugurated in 2017 circumnavigated the island and military aircrafts circled island several times. In response to increased movement of US vessels in Pacific and its announcement to grant Taiwan license to buy sensitive technology for building submarines Beijing launched biggest ever exercise which included live-fire drills. Subsequently China strengthened military presence close to Taiwan and conducted six-day long live fire drill in East China Sea last month simulating an invasion against Taiwan.

Intellectual Thefts

Intensifying its intimidatory tactics against Taiwan, China opened yet another front. It began to lure business men with potential investments and talent promising high position and perks accelerating brain-drain. To counter China’s attempts to poach talent, Taiwan has unveiled “four directions and eight strategies approach” like increasing remuneration for academics, innovative growth to negate the impact of “31 measures” of China. Taiwan manufactures two-thirds of World’s semi-conductors. Though China is the largest manufacturer of mobiles, its imports Chips worth $260 billion from Taiwan. With Trump administration restricting Chinese investments in America and imposing strict restrictions on the export of technology to China, Beijing has now resorted to intellectual thefts. Poaching the employees working at Taiwanese chip manufacturing companies, China is stealing “production, trade and design secrets”. Though Taiwan caught China indulging in such acts, it couldn’t pursue the cases legally because of the difficulty in collecting evidences. This is not the first of episode of China’s is found indulging in industrial espionage. American companies in Silicon Valley are now troubled by the increased instances of such thefts master-minded by China.

Under China’s pressure, East Asia Olympic committee has revoked the decision to hold youth games at Taichung, Taiwan. Taiwan has reported spent over $22 million towards preparation for the event. Disconcerted over country’s decision to rename Sports team from Chinese Taipei to Taiwan, China influenced representatives from South Korea, Macau, China, Hong Kong, North Korea, Mongolia, Guam, Japan and Taiwan to vote against Taichung. Except Japan all other countries towed Beijing’s line.

Undeterred by China’s continued coercion, Taiwan having strengthened its resolve is exploring new possibilities of building ties with other countries. To circumvent global isolation, Taiwan unveiled New South Bound Policy to engage with ASEAN countries, South Asian countries, Australia and New Zealand. It is actively participating in multilateral organisations. Unbending Taiwan has launched Ketagalan forum, for Asia-Pacific Security Dialogue stressing the need for rules based international order and for promoting peace and security in the region. It established Yushan Forum to serve as platform for exchange of youth representatives, NGOs working in the region.  Besides, Taiwan is rigorously strengthening its military might. Years of democratization has infused a new identity among Taiwanese people. The percentage of the population taking pride in Taiwanese identity has increased to 55% as against 4% who consider themselves Chinese. China’s coercive strategies fostered unity among Taiwanese, emboldened their resolve impelling them to uphold democratic values.

Certainly, at the core of entire issue is firstly the ambiguous interpretation and understanding of “One China policy”. The entire scramble is intensely complicated by the resolute pledge of President Xi of terming reunification of Taiwan with main land as integral to vision 2049. Emboldened by a steady economic rise and burgeoning diplomatic clout, China having launched a psychological warfare is unrepentantly escalating military presence in Taiwan Straits. Invariably, Taiwan is now becoming an issue of contention between China and US. Unfortunately, under Obama’s watch China brazenly infringed the median line and the reluctant president even turned down Taiwan’s plea for sale of F-16s. President Trump hasn’t shied away from taking China head on and announced even second round of tariffs today. Given, Trump’s unforgiving approach, Taiwan might be a flash point between China and America. Nonetheless, will countries call China’s bluff for being a global bully? Can the global bodies impose sanctions on economically powerful countries for subverting rules-based order? Else, China’s unbated authoritarianism will resoundingly prove that rules and regulations are for countries with poor global clout…..

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