India’s massive diplomatic engagement with ASEAN Countries

To commemorate celebrations of the 69^th Republic Day, India has extended invitation to not just one country but the leaders of the 50-year old regional forum ASEAN signifying the importance of nurturing ties with countries in the extended neighborhood. ASEAN comprises of 10 south east Asian nations- Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Philippines, Brunei and Myanmar. Aside, the deep cultural and historical connect, Buddhism and Ramayana connect India with ASEAN. All the leaders unanimously accepted the invitation to grace the seminal event as Chief guests reflecting their recognition of India as a rising power. India’s unprecedented outreach besides giving fresh impetus to Modi’s Act East Policy will offer an excellent opportunity to deepen foundations four pillars of cooperation-economic, political, cultural and maritime security.  This constructive engagement with the ASEAN group eventually marks 25 years of partnership, 15 years of summit-level interactions and five years of strategic relationship.

At the fag end of Cold War, mired by financial crisis, Prime Minister PV Narasimha initiated new economic reforms and formally initiated Look East Policy to establish strong economic ties with “tiger economies” of ASEAN. The policy has become central to India’s approach towards different countries in ASEAN with varied political orientations. Reinforcing the need for shifting from westward thinking to eastward thinking, Prime Minister Modi rechristened the initiative as Act East policy in 2014. But interestingly, even before India vigorously pursue ties with South East Asia, China evolved into a regional actor developing strong, trade and transactional relations with ASEAN countries which strengthened with time.

With the collapse of Soviet Union, China became more relevant to the region. While the end of Cold War presented an opportunity for India and Japan as well to engage with South East Asian nations, China had already made massive inroads into the region by then. Since 1992, India continued to engage with ASEAN through ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (for peaceful resolution of regional disputes), East Asian Summit (EAS), ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus) and Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum(EAMF). But China always had an “early starter” advantage. As steadily China clambered growth trajectory it began to intensify claims in the South China Sea (SCS) and brow-beat smaller neighbors. Among the ASEAN nations, it has disputes with Philippines and Vietnam over the Scarborough Shoal and Spartly Islands. While Vietnam refused to bow down to China, Philippines pulled up China to ICJ (International Court of Justice). Though the verdict was against China, Beijing refused to accept and infamously compelled Philippines to fall in line with its financial heft. By signing huge investment deals with Cambodia and Laos Beijing suppressed any resistance to its military assertion in the region. Alerted by China’s claims over 80% of SCS, Indonesia recently named the Sea near Natuna islands as North Natuna Sea. By bailing out 1 MBD beleaguered State investment fund, Beijing tamed Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak. ASEAN nations are now wary of China’s territorial claims over the strategically important SCS which accounts to trade flows worth $5trillion. Unfortunately, ASEAN group which came into existence as a bulwark against China is now devitalized since nations are unable to reach a consensus over maritime issues. China’s unabated military assertion is triggering insecurities among the ASEAN countries. India’s reluctance to buckle down under Chinese pressure during the 70- day long Doklam standoff has given enough reason for ASEAN nations to look towards India as a geostrategic alternative in the region. Further, India’s potential as a fast-growing economy, huge market potential and investment opportunities have prompted ASEAN to deepen cooperation with New Delhi.

Ever since 1992, despite change in political leadership India consistently maintained good relations with ASEAN. With economic cooperation high on agenda in the second decade of partnership with ASEAN, both sides signed free trade agreement in 2003.  But bilateral trade failed to reach full potential. On the other hand, ASEAN countries, adept in manufacturing benefitted from bilateral trade. India began pitching for agreement on services its forte. India-ASEAN Agreements on Trade in Services and Investments came into force on July 1^st, 2015. But as of now gains have been modest. Indo-ASEAN bilateral trade currently stands at $70 billion as against target of $200 billion by 2020. Indian trade deficit in part is worsened by South Asian countries trade barriers on agriculture goods, pharmaceuticals, and textiles. Contrastingly, China-ASEAN bilateral trade amounts to whopping $450 billion. India accounts for 2.6% of ASEAN’s external trade. Similarly, India’s investment in ASEAN pale in comparison with Japan and China.

India has special relations with some ASEAN countries like Vietnam. Similarly, New Delhi signed a pact for enhancing maritime security cooperation with Singapore and stepped up defence cooperation with Philippines. Now both sides are exploring all possibilities to strengthen economic relations. ASEAN countries are batting for early conclusion of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), a mega trade arrangement constitution ASEAN countries, India, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. India is reluctant since its doesn’t have robust connectivity with ASEAN countries and fears China swamping colossal Indian markets. Unfortunately, crucial connectivity projects like Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport Corridor though the troubled Rakhine province and the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway have been inordinately delayed exacerbating connectivity issues. In a bid to address connectivity constraints, under the Act East policy, India is vigorously pursuing infrastructure development projects in the North East region which is a land bridge to South East Asia.  

While ASEAN countries are enthusiastic about India’s interest in regional integration and connectivity, they want greater participation of Indian navy in South East Asia. Though ASEAN welcomed references to India as Indo-Pacific power they anticipate New Delhi to take stronger stand on China’s burgeoning military aggression in the region. But India is reluctant to take a proactive role in ASEAN since the group is largely undivided. A subgroup within ASEAN tacitly approves China’s manipulation of Code of Conduct.

At a time, region is embroiled by geopolitical uncertainty, India’s bold initiative towards restructuring regional architecture had found congruence with aspirations of ASEAN countries. India held two-day Indo-ASEAN summit on the eve of Republic Day held on 24-25^th January themed on “Maritime cooperation and Security” with a focus on counterterrorism, security, and connectivity. In the two days, Modi held bilateral talks with all heads of states which was followed by a retreat at Rashtrapathi Bhavan. As a mark of solidarity and strengthening common heritage, commemorative postal stamp on Ramayana was released. Bharat ASEAN Maitri Park was inaugurated. Additionally, India conferred Padma Sri on one individual from each of the ASEAN countries in recognition of their distinguished services. Also, a tableau themed on India-ASEAN friendship marched along the Republic Day contingent. Aside, high optical display and symbolism of friendship and solidarity between India and ASEAN, Prime Minister Modi at the plenary session of the summit laid out few guidelines to rejuvenate and cement ties. Speaking at the ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit (AICS), Modi broached on swift progression of Indo-ASEAN journey which began as sectoral dialogue and matured into a strategic partnership in the past 25 years and commended the progress of implementation of third action plan 2016-2020. As of now there are 30 sectoral dialogue mechanisms, seven ministerial level initiatives to deepen the partnership. Modi affirmed, “India shares ASEAN’s vision of peace and prosperity through the rules-based order for the oceans and seas. Respect for international law, notably UNCLOS is critical for this”. He promised, “we remain committed to work with ASEAN to enhance practical cooperation and collaboration in our shared maritime domain”. Reassuring that India-ASEAN relations are built on 3Cs of- Commerce, Connectivity and Culture, Modi invoked the need for revitalizing the rich ancient civilizational links. Simultaneously, India is actively mobilizing BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) to step up ties with maritime neighbors which includes ASEAN countries Myanmar and Thailand. India is thus adopting a multi-pronged approach to nurture ties with extended neighborhood through various platforms.

The collective presence of ASEAN leaders made the Republic day celebrations more special. This new momentum generated by Modi’s pragmatic diplomacy undoubtedly asserted India’s commitment towards regional integration. With SAARC temporarily buried, India should deepen ties with South East Asia, a region wary of China’s hegemony and military assertion. Vietnam can be India’s pressure point against China. With China deftly encircling India, pulling all its neighbors into its orbit, India must consider strategic maritime expansion into the vast Indo-Pacific region. Since India can’t match the deep pockets of China for making huge investments in the ASEAN countries it should widen maritime security cooperation and partner with Japan to make forays into the Indo-Pacific region. India’s steady rise has raised the expectations of ASEAN countries. It is time India extends unflinching solidarity to ASEAN and contribute toward promoting peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. Also, India should generously employ ‘soft power’ like promoting people to people links, nurturing ancient civilizational connect by setting up tangible and intangible heritage circuits. India’s trade ties with ASEAN countries are not uniform. New Delhi would stand to gain if it can rope in fastest growing economies like- Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Philippines into Make in India initiative. A broad-based approach of strengthening economic ties, connectivity networks and maritime cooperation with ASEAN can make India a major player in building new order in Asia.

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