Merkel’s narrow victory reduced her leeway

Angela Merkel, who emerged victorious in the German Elections held on 24^th September is all set become Chancellor for the fourth time. Merkel will go down the history for being the first female, hailing from East Germany to reach such a milestone. She will now be placed in same league as her mentor, Helmut Kohl and Konrad Adenauer, the founding fathers of Federal Republic of Germany. Though she managed to get sizeable percentage of votes to form coalition government, she will have little room to maneuver. Clearly, the elections were no less than a referendum on Merkel’s refugee policy. Germans strongly disapproved her decision of sheltering 1 million refugees in 2015. The impact of German discontentment is reflected in the elections.

In the elections that witnessed a significant surge in voter turnout (75.9%) German’s two oldest political parties, Centre-right, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Centre-Left, Socialist Democratic Party (SPD) suffered heavy losses. Merkel’s CDU and her sister Bavarian party Christian Social Union (CSU) literally had a free fall registering a sharp slump from 41.5% in 2013 to 32.9% in 2017. Similarly, SPD vote declined to 20.8% from 25.7% four years ago. Observers maintained that it this was CDU’s worst performance since 1949. In 2013, Merkel formed a coalition government with SPD. But now, soon after the elections, Martin Schulz of SPD announced plans of sitting in opposition. This development has emerged as a challenge for Merkel whose popularity had slid beyond expectations. Merkel who is popular as “Mutti” meaning mommy received an electoral drubbing for opening Germany for immigrants. Instinctively, people have decisively rooted for far-right Alternative for Germany Party (AfD) which sought tough immigration policies and tighter borders. Consequently, for the first time in 60 years, far-right party having received 12.6% will enter Budestag. Germans have in fact, voted for other smaller parties like Free Democratic Party (FDP), Greens and radical left wing De Linke. This indecisive electoral outcome has complicated things for Merkel. With few viable options at disposal, Merkel will now have to forge a coalition with the ideologically diverse conservatives, libertarians and environmentally conscientious parties. Merkel announced that her party will effectively conclude discussions with partners and form government by Christmas. Till then the grand coalition will attend to day to day issues.

Unlike the Grand Coalition of 2013, Merkel’s new coalition with ideologically diverse partners will reduce her leeway.  Even CDU’s sister party CSU threatened to desert. But allaying fears of new elections, Merkel promised a full term.  In all likelihood, Merkel would have to make many compromises. There is a possibility that aspirations of all Germans may not be represented proportionately since East Germany en masse voted for the AfD which will be excluded from coalition. In the meanwhile, CSU is pushing for including AfD in the coalition and called for a cap on the number of refugees, an option Merkel strongly resisted. Christian Linder of FDP expressed his unwillingness to join the coalition. They strongly oppose the European reforms proposed by Emmanuel Macron. While Greens set a precondition to upholding the obligations of Paris treaty and favored European reforms. Analysts even warned of marked polarization in Parliament. Left party has expressed its concern at the prospect of far-right entering the Parliament who are believed to be confrontational. They are often chided as vestiges of the old history and dubbed as being too nationalistic. Despite Schulz’s announcement, reports indicate that Merkel is in talks with SPD for government formation. Speculations are rife that a Jamaican Coalition (similar to colors of its flag) Black-Yellow-Green (CDU-FDP-Greens) might emerge.

German elections are truly unique for they meticulously follow democratic rigor by combining direct and proportionate representation. Germany has 61.5million voters who cast two ballots. One for the local representative and another for a party. Hence, compilation and analysis of election results are more complicated. Half of the Bundestag, German parliament is allocated for local representatives from various districts. Normally referred to first-past-the-post contest. Second vote is allotted to party. Any party getting less than 5% of national vote share doesn’t enter the Parliament. If a party gets 30% of national vote, 30% of seats are allotted to party in Bundestag. Though the number of seats in Bundestag are 598, it can be stretched to 800. Sometimes, when party sends more representative through first vote than they are entitled to, to compensate other parties, Bundestag is expanded. In the current elections, seven parties have crossed the threshold of 5% national vote. Hence, Bundestag must be expanded to accommodate all these parties. Accordingly, 2017 Budestag will have 709 seats- with CDU-246, SPD-153, AfD-94, FDP-80, Left-69 and Greens-67 making it largest Bundestag so far. Current Bundestag has 631 seats. Incidentally, the declining security situation an offshoot of open-door policy for refugees and a rise in terrorist attacks led to a sharp decline in CDU vote share.

Evidently, German elections stoked fresh fears in European countries which were relying on strong leadership of Merkel. Over the past decade, Merkel’s towering leadership anchored the EU (European Union) from weathering. But now her weakened domestic position will certainly diminish her ability to deliver on European stage. Subsequently, hopes of revitalizing the EU might receive a setback. Emmanuel Macron suggested European reforms for deeper European integration. Macron indeed discussed in length about the reforms with Merkel who seemingly signaled her approval. But now, coalition compulsions might force Merkel to slowdown. A subdued Merkel, ahead of crucial Brexit negotiations may not be a prospective for the EU stumbling under the pressure of arguments.

Moreover, growing popularity of Euro-sceptic right-wing parties in various countries like Italy, Netherlands, Belgium and in now Germany may not bode well for harmonious functioning of EU. Rise of AfD symbolized that Germany is not immune to anti-establishment parties.  AfD also capitalized peoples anger of Germany’s participation in eurozone bailouts. Right wing’s nationalistic position might affect Germany’s relations with Turkey and Poland.

Merkel’s open-door refugee policy, accelerated phasing out of nuclear policy post Fukshima nuclear-fall out and stopping military conscription eroded her domestic popularity. Germany spent 20 billion Euros last year to integrate 1 million Euros which was considered as economic burden on taxpayers by many. Burdened by the rising energy bills and wary of poor security analysts argue that people have shifted allegiance from CDU and voted for AfD which pushed for curbs on refugees and laid great emphasis on security. Essentially Merkel must make some important amendments to her policies to earn the confidence of conservative voters who drifted to AfD. Right now, there is a popular perception that anyone can easily enter Germany and seek asylum. She must now install mechanisms to check the identity of migrants and expel those failing to conform to German systems. A new energy policy that can reduce dependence on coal should be promoted. Germany should bolster cybersecurity and allocate 2% of GDP for budget for defence.

Merkel is reckoned as one of the most powerful leaders of the World consistently. Her studied leadership has become beacon of hope as Britain and US embraced protectionism. Her calm and competence amidst burgeoning refugee exodus catapulted her to the status of a decisive leader of the Europe. Her long, illustrious political career has been blemish-free. Even her economic legacy is unrivalled, she skillfully navigated through the worst economic recession of 2008 and contained spiraling unemployment rate to just 4%. German economy is now robust and looks promising. Above all, people still have faith in her leadership. More importantly, unlike other global leaders, she shunned the feminist label. She skillfully rose to higher echelons of power in a strident masculine party with “breathtaking ruthlessness”. People who worked with her disclosed that she never claimed credit for ideas but instead strived hard to build consensus. She handled alpha-males like President Putin with ease and earned the dignity, respect, and honor for what she is. But never claimed or aspired for concessions for being a woman.  Her legacy will forever be hailed for her grit, determination, and steadfast approach.  Moving ahead, Merkel can even seek a fifth term if she can assiduously address issues that can curb domestic angst.

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