Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the joint conference at
17th Indo-Russian summit said in Russian “an old friend is better than two new ones” in an apparent reference
to the current geopolitical scenario. The remark was aimed at Russia’s drift
towards Pakistan to reposition itself in the South Asia region. Seemingly,
miffed by India’s closeness with US, Russia started flirting Pakistan. Moscow indeed
sold four Mi-35 attack helicopters to Pakistan when its ties deteriorated with
US and built a $2billion gas line. The long-standing Indo-Russian ties ruffled,
owing to Russia’s decision to conduct first joint military exercise with
Pakistan at a time when India was contemplating strikes against the regional
neighbor. Despite India’s objections Russia went ahead with the bilateral
exercises with Pakistan when Indian troops are in Vladivostok to participate in
the eighth joint military exercises Indra-2016.
The main theme of the exercises was “counter-terrorism operations in semi
mountainous and jungle terrain under UN mandate”. The agenda of Russo-Pakistan
joint exercises, Druzbha-2016 on
high altitude warfare, were held at Army High Altitude School in northern
Pakistan, Cherat. Allaying Indian fears,
Moscow assured that exercises will not be held in disputed regions. Amidst this
bilateral turbulence, India reached out to Russia to infuse new life into
traditional relations with Russia and to strengthen Druzhbha-Dosti at the 17th India-Russia Annual Summit
held along the sidelines of the 8th BRICS Summit, Goa. Both
countries besides, reviewing bilateral Special
and Privileged Strategic Partnership rooted in mutual trust and friendship,
signed 17 cooperative agreements taking economic ties to unprecedented heights.
Consolidation of Indo-Russian ties and significant tangible outcomes of the
bilateral friendship have instilled hope and faith.
Seven Decades of
Diplomatic Ties
The year 2017, would mark 70 years of diplomatic relations
between the countries. A rather dispassionate analysis of the journey so far
can help India to reinvent old links. India always considered Soviet Union as a
reliable friend. After its collapse, Russia inherited the close diplomatic ties
with India. Russia donned the role of India’s “best friend forever” for lending
fervent support to India’s position on Kashmir. In 1950’s when the
Anglo-American lobby made a desperate attempt to seal-off Kashmir in favor of
Pakistan, Russia supported India by exercising veto power at the UNSC. Later in
1955 Khruschev on his state visit to India travelled to Kashmir. Enamored by
the public reception, he proclaimed to help India whenever it is in trouble.
But in fact, Russia’s relations with India are guided by its own strategic
consideration. Growing rift between Soviet Union and China propelled Moscow to
draw closer to India. When India’s tensions with China peaked in 1959, Russia
declined to support China in border dispute and offered MiG-21 to India. (While
Pakistan was provided arms by Eisenhower in 1954, Indian requests were turned
down). But when war erupted in 1962, Khruschev withheld delivery of the MiG’s
and shared its intelligence on India with China. Russia’s sudden reversal was
in response to India’s turn towards US. After war MiG’s were supplied to India.
In 1965 Russia played a crucial role in bringing about
ceasefire between India and Pakistan. India turned to Russia for mediation
after war, Leonid Brezhnev successor of Khruschev not only failed to condemn
Pakistan for incursion into Rann of Kutch but coerced India to return the
captured territories. Russia in fact secretly harbored a desire to forge
relations with Pakistan in the cold war era. Russian uncertainty towards India
can be attributed to Delhi’s foreign policy with foundations in Non-Alignment. After
1965 Russia began to feel that mutual hostilities of India and Pakistan would
play to China’s advantage. So, it announced supply of military equipment to
Pakistan. India was infuriated and raised severe objections. Russia backed off and
anticipated treaty of friendship with India. In the meanwhile, Sino-Soviet
relations deteriorated and were marred by Zhenbao incident along the Ussuri
River in 1969.
By 1970 India was reeling under the constant influx of
refugees from East Bengal, troubled India sought international support. India’s
hopes of support were dashed when US, China, Pakistan reached a consensus on
East Bengal. Then, in contravention to Non-Aligned principles, Indira Gandhi
signed Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation in August 1971.
Soviet Union advised India not to escalate tensions and avert war. But as refugee
influx reached threatening proportions, Indira Gandhi travelled to Soviet Union
again in October 1971 to seek Soviet support. During the war, Soviet Union
extended invaluable support to India. But, again in 1972 after the war, Soviet
insisted that India should return 93,000 prisoners of war. Throughout 1970s and
1980s India and Russia enjoyed great comaraderie and friendship.
Despite the intensity of partnership, Soviet refused to
concede Indian requests of pulling out of Afghanistan. Soviet Union relied on
the false assurances of Zia-ul-Haq and continued to prevail over Afghanistan.
Unfortunately, Soviet failed to recognize the deep entrenched revenge harbored
by Pakistan towards Moscow for its unconditional support to India during
Bangladesh war. Pakistani Jihad dislodged Russian regime in Afghanistan. The
ambitious Afghanistan war eventually resulted in the collapse of the Soviet
Union.
Areas of Cooperation
While there have been differences between both countries,
India and Russia remained best of the friends. Unlike the US, Soviet Union didn’t
provide any military equipment to Pakistan. Over the years, both sides
strengthened relationship through cooperation in defence, space, transfer of
technology and civil nuclear energy. India is now the second biggest market for
Russian military equipment and over 70% of India’s military equipment is of Russian
origin. Till 1999, Indian military purchases were made from Russia. India
subsequently diversified arms purchase and US too notched up several arms deals
becoming one of the largest vendors for India. Bilateral trade and investments picked up
greater momentum. Owing to surge in bilateral trade in recent years, both
countries have set a target of $30billion by 2025. Besides, working together
with China in the trilateral RIC (Russia, India, China) both countries are
collaborating towards issues of global interest through various multilateral forums
like the UN, BRICS and G20. Russia strongly supported India’s escalation from
Observer Status to full membership in SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization). Russia
reaffirmed support to India’s candidature for expanded UNSC, welcomed India’s
membership for NSG and supported India’s application to APEC.
Outcomes of the
India-Russia Summit
A bilateral investment fund was created by the National
Infrastructure Investment Fund (NIIF) of India with Russian Direct Investment
Fund (RDIF) to facilitate high- technology investments in both countries.
Investments in areas sectors like pharmaceuticals, chemicals,
mining, machine building, implementation of infrastructure projects,
cooperation in Railway sector, fertilizer production, automobiles and aircraft
building in each other’s country and increased focus on the construction of the
International North-South Corridor was welcomed.
Expanding cooperation
under the “Strategic Vision to Strengthen Cooperation in the Peace Uses of
Atomic Energy between Russian Federation and Republic of India” signed in Dec
2014, Kudankulam Unit 1 after attaining full power capacity was dedicated to
nation by both leaders in August 2016. During the current summit, Unit 2 of
Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant was jointly dedicated and “pouring of concrete” for
Unit-3 and Unit-4 was witnessed. General Frame Work Agreement and the Credit
Protocol for Unit-5 and Unit-6 was discussed.
Russia welcomed Indian acquisition of two oil companies in
Russia and invited Indian companies in joint exploration in the off-shore
Arctic circle. Several key agreements are signed to deepen-defence cooperation,
space cooperation, cyber cooperation, security and disaster management and in
enhancing links in cultural exchange, education, science and technology.
India and Russia have decided to develop next generation of
the cruise missiles, Brahmos with over 600km range, can cover any area in
Pakistan. Unlike the ballistic missiles whose initial half of journey is
powered and the later uses gravity to complete the trajectory, cruise missiles
flight is completely powered and can hit any protected target with extreme
precision.
India signed a $10.5 billion pact for acquiring air defence
missile system, four Krevak or Talwar class stealth frigates (two built in
Russia other two to be constructed in India with Russian assistance) and joint
production of 200 Kamov-226T light utility vehicles. Kamov helicopters can
operate at 20,000 ft high making them suitable for flying to Siachen Glacier.
The five new-generation $5 billion S-400 Truimf long range air defense missile
systems include three types of missiles which can fly at hypersonic and
supersonic range to intercept targets in the range of 120-400km. India is
second customer after China.
Energy deal of $13 billion acquisition of the Essar Oil’s
Vadinar oil refinery, by Russian-State Owned oil gaint Rosenft drew
international attention. This mutually beneficial deal will help India to
diversify its oil imports and reduce reliance on Middle East which is now
currently exploring European markets. While Russia can reassert its role in
global oil market at a time when low oil prices began to hits its economy. This
deal is real shot in arm for Russia since India’s oil demands are projected to
increase till 2040.
MoU for joint study between Engineers India Limited and
Gazprom for constructing a $25 billion natural gas pipeline.
Agreement for lease of second nuclear attack submarine of
Akula class, worth $2 billion as the lease of first submarine INS Chakra
expires by 2021. Few days back, indigenously developed nuclear submarine INS
Arihant was commissioned into service.
Issues Discussed
Expressed concerns about deteriorating situation in
Afghanistan, both sides condemned terrorism in all forms and manifestations, pitched
for “zero tolerance for direct or indirect support of terrorism” and pitched
for earliest conclusion of CCIT and called for comprehensive international
collaboration to combat terror. Russia strongly condemned Uri attacks and
expressed concern about the fact that attacks originated from Pakistan. It
endorsed surgical strikes against terror launch pads across the LoC and called
for “isolation of Pakistan beyond South Asia”. Russian solidarity assuaged
Indian concerns about its Pakistani tilt.
Both sides, raised concerns over prevailing instability in
South-Eastern Ukraine and supported complete implementation of Minsk Agreements
of Feb, 2015. Stressed the urgent need for cessation of hostilities in Syria
and deliverance of humanitarian aid.
India thus invested great energies in reviving friendship
with Russia. Till now irrespective of ideological leanings, Indian leaderships
of various hues favored strong bilateral ties with Russia. Strategic
geopolitical alignments of cold war era- China with the West and the Soviet
Union’s animosity with China are now replaced with dynamic alignments. Russia
having suffered tumultuous jolt with the collapse of Soviet Union is now
partnering with China. As the
intimidating hegemony of China turned it into an adversary of the West. Russia’s dalliance with Pakistan and contacts
with Japan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are part of its desperate attempts to recover
lost ground in global arena. In the process, by cozying up to Pakistan,
undermining the sensitivities of India, Russia conveyed its message loud and
clear. Alternatively, Russia can ill afford to side India for Pakistan and
begin arms sales with the later since markets of Islamabad are not robust. Just
like Russia, India is also trying to position itself internationally and is
enthusiastic to play a vital role in global order. Hence, Delhi is trying to
maximize its engagements with various partners in this multi-polar World. But
India can’t take Russia for granted. New Delhi should expand the horizons of
its foreign policy and endeavor to sustain the momentum in the Indo-Russian
relations.
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