India's NSG Pursuit

Modi’s fourth visit to US in a span of two years has kept media abuzz. To all the critics, sticking out their neck with a predilection of “Is Modi’s visit to US justified”? The answer is yes. Modi was invited to address the joint session of Congress which he graciously accepted. He fastidiously used the bilateral visit to foster India’s membership to the elite global nuclear regime, Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). India have always aspired to join four export control regimes- Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), Australia Group(AG) and Wassennar Arrangement (WA) that endears it towards the objective of non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). With the aggressive endorsement of US India successfully cleared the final hurdle to be part of the MTCR. Interestingly, India clinched this milestone during Modi’s current visit to US. India’s entry into the 34-member nuclear group dominated by the West subject to opposition by Italy was delayed. With India successfully resolving the pending Italian Marines case, India’s accession was met with no opposition and membership was endorsed automatically. But India’s next stride into NSG is fraught by severe opposition.

The ongoing plenary meeting of NSG in Vienna on June 9-10^th was called to consider India’s candidature for NSG. The unprecedented euphoria about NSG witnessed currently is a culmination of pugnacious geo-political aspirations and India’s rigorous pursuit to make it to global nuclear regime. Consequently, NSG meetings have turned into platform for “contestations between US and China to determine the future of the nuclear and world order”. Unlike MTCR’s membership, to which China is not member, Indian chances of making it to NSG is bogged down by strong opposition from the Dragon. While India’s chances of making it to NSG received a new fillip by its admission into MTCR, China’s impervious opposition may scuttle India’s hopes. Equally so, Pakistan which is obsessed of seeking parity with India has also applied for membership of NSG leaving no stone unturned to stifle Indian chances through its “all weather friend”. China who is currently facing economic downturn has not only turned aggressive and hegemonic but is blatantly challenging the global leadership of US. Notwithstanding US’s open call to all the 47 members of the trading cartel to support India China is defiant. Indeed Modi’s current “consolidation trip” is steered by Indian pursuit of obtaining support for NSG membership. Modi during on his visit to Switzerland and Mexico garnered support for India’s NSG membership. Thanks to US lobbying and Indian outreach Turkey, New Zealand and South Africa softened their stance. India’s dream of entering global nuclear regime received a new lease for life when Bush administration softened its stance and expressed willingness to enter into a formal civil nuclear agreement with India in 2005. India endured the grueling 123 US Congress agreement before nuclear deal could be signed in 2008.  Former Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh expedited the whole issue and is laid foundation for Indian pursuits.

 

 

NSG was created to maintain transparency in nuclear related export-controls and to facilitate dialogue, cooperation among all the countries party to the treaty. Shortly after Nuclear non-proliferation came into vogue in 1970, two committees were appointed to develop a framework for nuclear exports, of which the Zangger Committee established in 1971 soon reincarnated into Nuclear Suppliers Group in 1975.  In response to India’s first nuclear tests in 1974, series of meetings were held by Canada, France, Japan, Soviet Union, UK, US and West Germany to lay basic guidelines that would ensure nuclear cooperation and potentially reduce the risk of nuclear proliferation. Unofficially referred to as “London Club”, all suppliers of nuclear material, non-nuclear material for reactors, equipment and technology and other non-NPT members issued new guidelines in 1978 to govern functioning of NSG. Over a period of time several new guidelines were added to plug gaps and contain the risk of nuclear proliferation by rogue nations. In line with NSG guidelines, in 2008 India separated the nuclear facilities as per civilian and military use, obtained approval of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) board and adhered to an additional protocol to its safeguards agreement with the IEAE. India strengthened its domestic export control system, upgraded Special Chemicals, Organisms, Materials, Equipment and Technology (SCOMET) list in line with export control regimes, continued a moratorium on nuclear testing and formulated steps towards Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT).   Further India is now party to The Hague Code of Conduct (HCoC) against Ballistic Missile Proliferation which brightened India’s accession to MTCR but created a momentum for its entry into other nuclear regimes. Upon formally evaluating various steps taken by Indian government, exceptions were made for India ensuring its entry into global nuclear market in 2008 upon US’s persistence. China was miffed and unwillingly agreed to such exceptions under duress then. Currently, India enjoys all the benefits conferred on NSG by virtue of civil nuclear deal 2008 without being a party to it.

Globalized economic development and climate change concerns are now forcing nations to seek alternative sources of energy. Nuclear-energy generation offers a promise of meeting rising global energy needs. India evinced great interest for nuclear-power generation and is committed to the objective of increasing the contribution of nuclear power to the tune of 40% by 2025. Realizing the growing potential of India’s nuclear energy market, US lobbied hard to make exceptions in 2008. Obama maintained the same stance and appealed like-minded nations to support India’s membership for plausible economic benefits.

Think-tanks in India have recently carried out assessment of India’s eligibility for seeking membership into all four regimes. A working paper evaluated Indian case on the basis of defined factors set by all four nuclear regimes. Interestingly, four parameters or set criteria are similar for all of them. These are-a good track record of non-proliferation, support international efforts towards reduction and elimination of fissile material, proven technical experience and legally enforced domestic export control system. To strengthen its claims for membership, India signed the IAEA’s INFCIRC/869 agreement and Modi recently affirmed to step up measures to conform India’s nuclear security to international standards at Nuclear Security Summit (NSS), Washington. But India fails to meet one parameter of NSG, “adherence to one or more of the NPT, the treaties of Pelindaba, Rarotonga, Taltelolco, Bangkok, Semipalantisk or an equivalent international non-proliferation agreement, and full compliance with the obligations of such agreement (s).”  NSG Procedural Arrangement notes records that it is not incumbent to meet every parameter since they are factors for consideration (not mandatory criteria). Implying that India can be part of the group if consensus is reached. Agreement of all members is essential for taking a political decision on admitting new member.

Now, China is blazing all its guns, raising serious objections to India’s NSG membership. China insisted that all members must be signatories of NPT. On its part, India reminded that France, the founding member of NSG is not party to NPT till 1992. Similarly Japan was member of NSG before it signed NPT. Even Argentina and Brazil were invited to be part of NSG before they joined NPT. China is playing devil’s advocate by hyphenating India with Pakistan. The dubious arguments seriously rises doubts about China intentions. Despite being party to NPT much earlier, China stayed away from NSG for more than three decades joining in 2004. It clandestinely transferred nuclear technology to Pakistan and Iran, finalized a bilateral nuclear agreement with Pakistan days before its accession to NSG. After joining NSG, in 2009 it supplied two nuclear reactors Chasma 3 & 4 in addition to Chasma 1 & 2 constructed earlier. In 2013, defying the NSG objectives it built two nuclear reactors in Karachi. Alarmingly, no member objected China’s brazenness. While nuclear regimes claim high moral ground for upholding nuclear proliferation, principally these arrangements ensured P5 to amass and proliferate nuclear stock piles extracting the promise of abjuring WMD from all others. Just as China helped Pakistan to build its nuclear technology infrastructure, US aided Israel. EU too have debunked NSG objectives to protect its private firms.

To assuage apprehensions of India’s nuclear proliferation and to obtain consensus India reached extensively to all member states. But Pakistan’s application for NSG membership on May 19^th is marauding India’s prospects. By hoisting its candidature to the group, Islamabad has brought the longstanding perilous South Asian nuclear rivalry to the fore. Pakistan is notoriously famous for state sponsored terrorism and pandering to nuclear arms race. But Islamabad minced no words in saying that it continues to indulge in nuclear weapons development to defend itself from India. In short, while Islamabad’s candidature stands no chance for the botched up nuclear record and history of misdemeanors, it can bulldoze India’s prospects. Ever since American offer of civil nuclear deal with India in 2005, Pakistan has been hankering for similar arrangement with US and seriously plotting to enter nuclear regimes to regain parity with India. Pakistani famed nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan was caught selling nuclear technology to North Korea, Iran and Libya. Pakistan’s nuclear expertise is contentious unlike India’s proven record of handling nuclear reactors. India indigenously developed nuclear reactors and reached new heights in building fast breeding and thorium reactors.

India complies with all the factors necessary for consideration but India’s its membership is plagued by the geopolitical aspirations of China who publicly expressed its reservations. NSG membership would elevate India’s status in the evolving global order. It will add weight to India’s long cherished dream of obtaining permanent membership in the extended UNSC. India painstaking followed a strategy to strengthen its credentials for NSG. Incase India’s accession is denied, with concerted efforts it should expand nuclear capabilities in research, design and manufacturing and develop its own parallel nuclear market. Indian space industry too endured the hard knocks of international sanctions to evolve as a competitive challenger in global space market.

 

 

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