The Engima Called Pakistan

Whatever be the consequences, the issue of Indo-Pakistan continues to draw unprecedented domestic and international attention. The flurry of activity between India and Pakistan in the past four months flagged off by a between meeting between NSA’s of both countries accompanied by their foreign secretaries signaled the inception of a new praxis of diplomatic of engagement. This was soon followed by Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Islamabad for Heart of Asia conference and reached a crescendo with Prime Minister Modi’s impromptu visit to Lahore on Christmas Eve. But the apogee was soon demolished by Pakistan-backed terrorist attacks on the Indian air base at Pathankot. The attack besides shattering benign intentions of fledging Modi regime of a pragmatic peace process but also validated chronic subterfuge of Pakistan. Unlike the earlier episodes of terrorist attacks, Nawaz Sharif assured India of “prompt and decisive” action. To temporarily ward-off the rapacious time-bound action warranted by Modi Pakistani media reported arrest of 12 JeM operatives. It soon emerged that no substantive action was ordered against JeM, the terror outfit responsible for clandestine attacks and its operatives. Upon India’s persistence for action, Pakistan demanded more evidence and expectedly unconvinced of Indian reports, requested an access to the site of attacks for its Joint Investigation Team (JIT). The barrage of criticisms over government’s decision of allowing the JIT comprising of ISI officials to strategic air base of Pathankot for collecting evidence drew severe flak from Indian strategists. Government substantiated its stand that permission had an underlying clause of reciprocation whereby Indian NIA team will be allowed to investigate the crucial hideouts of anti-Indian terror operatives. After the three day-long stint in India, in a nocuous media leak, JIT parroted that attacks were staged by India to malign Pakistan.

During the same time, in an orchestrated symphony of deception Pakistan army arrested a former Indian Navy officer Kulbhushan Jadav alleging him as R&AW officer and raked up “spy connection”. Islamabad then embarked on a defaming slugfest by denouncing the Indian officer of involving in subversive activities in Balouchistan province of Pakistan. While the botched up spy script was dismissed by International community with utter disdain, Pakistan continues to fester the lies. Further it had tried to drag the Iranian dispensation into the muck for it coincided with Iranian President’s bilateral visit to Islamabad. Iran quickly distanced itself from all these incriminating details. Culminating the debauchery, Pakistan High Commissioner to India, Abdul Basit announced that “peace process with India has been suspended”. Indian political class slammed Pakistan for suspending the talks and chastised Modi’s Pakistan policy. On the contrary, Pakistan observers contend that Indian authorities owed a debt of gratitude to Basit for his frank revelations. Clearly the dust-off the ongoing impasse of diplomatic saga between the countries, Basit voiced sputtered the message of GHQ, Rawalpindi. His appraisal would aid calibrated India’s predilection of Pakistan. For the first time since 1960’s Pakistan had voluntarily pulled off from peace talks. Till now India under International duress was obligated to initiate the talks despite humiliating back-stabs inflicted by Pakistan. Unarguably so, the tacitly deft move of allowing JIT by Modi might have worked to India’s advantage. Instead of getting roiled into the vicious cycle of talks and no talks, India’s current diplomatic predisposition illustrated that Delhi has spared no efforts to resuscitate ties with Pakistan. Thus, the onus of inaction is now with Pakistan. While expecting a concrete and legitimate action from Pakistan that mastered the art of subterfuge and obfuscation is asinine Basit’s timely appraisal is of immense help.  

Over the past six decades, India showered unilateral diplomatic concessions on Pakistan without expecting any reciprocation. Be it Lal Bahadur Sastry’s decision of withdrawing Indian forces from the captured territories of Pakistan or Indira Gandhi approving the release of 93,000 prisoners of war during Bangladesh liberation war or the lenient Gujaral Doctrine of pilfering India’s strategic assets to woo the neighbor. While India battles under the burden of vacuous and doltish actions of political dispensation, Pakistan unabashedly charges India of aggression and seeks parity. In fact to charter a pragmatic foreign policy towards Pakistan, India should construe the complicity of its power binary.

Pakistan on its part, despite treading the perilous and subversive path of extremism, is least apologetic. With the unchallenged despotic military authoritarianism receiving unstinted support from its all-weather friend China, Pakistan army may be in no mood to mend its ways. Pakistan’s Army received a shot in arm with China vetoing Indian resolution of imposing ban on the JeM Chief Masoor Azad supported by all the 14 countries at the UN Security Council. Further, even its tactical strategy of continually seeking parity with its larger neighbor India and the ruse of reining on the Afghanistan Taliban and Haqqani networks operating from its territory is earning it rich dividends. Notwithstanding India’s severe objections, US not only delivered eight F-16 jet fighters but has recently ordered fighter helicopters. The Pentagon is all set to sell nine AH-1Z Viper attacks helicopters worth $170 million that has improved targeting and surveillance at nights.  It is insane as how US could ignore the desperate appeals of the Afghan leaders who have are increasing paranoid about the vicious influence of Pakistan. Of late Afghan Taliban has clearly indicated that it will not participate in the peace talks initiated by Pakistan.

Chinese official once asserted that Pakistan is their Israel.  With the dichotomy of two lead powers steadily tormenting the global stability, nurturing states into their all-weather friends regardless of the consequences has become an established practice. Following the precedent set by the West, China so far has been unequivocally exercising its veto power to protect its allies- Pakistan, North Korea, Myanmar, Sudan and Zimbabwe. The lucrative economic bounty in the form of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) of worth $46 billion has invariably strengthened the existing nexus between the neighbors that share an anti-Indian bond. Pakistan has recently signed a trade agreement worth $2 million with Xinjiang province of China. Pakistan’s fundamentalism is egregiously supported by its ideological soul mate Saudi Arabia. In the recent past Saudi Arabia signed $122 million worth economic agreements with Pakistan of which $76 are grants as per an unofficial estimate Pakistan has received a whopping $1.5 billion as assistance from Saudi. With the ungrudging financial and diplomatic support from the reigning super power, emerging superpower and leader of Middle East Pakistan may never be want to change its strides.

On the domestic front, the ever-widening gap between the civilian and the military regimes is taking a toll on the country. In 2014, just before Modi’s swearing-in ceremony when Nawaz Sharif’s government slipped into a domestic crisis (over the allegations of corruption) due to the joint protests by Imran Khan and Tahirul-Qadri, Raheel Sharif, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) offered to rescue. The duo reached an agreement and accordingly, Nawaz Sharif was obliged to transfer his authority over foreign policy, defence and security affairs to COAS. Raheel Sharif earned unequivocal admiration of civilians through operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) during which 3500 militants were killed. Though Pakistan army shuns to proclaim the real authority as military regimes are perceived to be authoritarian dictatorial, functional head of the country is the COAS. In fact leaders from US, China, Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia directly hold diplomatic talks with Raheel Sharif with Nawaz Sharif overlooking the economic development. While Operation Zarb-e-Azb brought down attacks on the military installations, it has created a rift within TTP, leading to a surge in sectarian violence. Further it lead to emergence of a splinter group of TTP headed by Omar Khalid Khorasani who was averse to peace with army. They claimed allegiance to IS and formed Jamaat-ul-Ahrar.

Under Raheel Sharif, while terrorist attacks within Pakistan have come down barring an attempt to hijack a naval vessel at Karachi in 2014 and an attack on Peshawar airbase in 2015, a fraction of Pakistan Taliban unleashed violent attack on a school in Peshawar killing over 140 children. This attack brought Pakistan to its knees and led to the launch of a National Action Plan (NAP) against terrorism. As per a military amendment under the plan, military courts were set up. Apex committees were constituted to deliver speedy justice. So far 61 people were executed. High handedness of the apex committees tilted the balance in favor of military in all provinces except Punjab, the domain of Nawaz Sharif. With military taking complete charge, counter terrorism operations were launched in all the provinces. Sindh province is under control of Pakistan Rangers, Zarb-e-Azb is in vogue in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and now military is forced to intervene in Punjab following massive protests condemning the judicial killing of Mumtaz Qadir, who assassinated Punjab Governor Salman Taseer for trying to bring changes in blasphemy laws. Now the military is all set to take over Punjab province following a carnage at Lahore on Easter Sunday in the Gulshan-e-Iqbal Park that killed 70 civilian lives. The attacks were claimed by Jamaat-ur-Ahrar group.

General Sharif viewed Lahore blasts as open challenge to his authority and lost no time in launching combing operations. Punjab is believed to be the breeding ground for various terror outfits like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Jamaat-ud-Dawaa(JuD), Jaish-e-Mohammed(JeM), Harkat-ul-Jihad al Islami, Sipah-e-Sahiba and Tehreek-e-Taliban. Regarding Punjab, Nawaz Sharif had an understanding with Army that military operations will not be launched as along as the terrorist outfits don’t launch attacks. But following the Lahore attacks against minorities, military forcibly initiated counter terrorism operations. Military intervention in his strong-hold irked Nawaz Sharif forcing him to pull off from the Nuclear Security Summit at Washington. The clock of internal implosion is ticking in Pakistan with all the provinces reeling under the severe crackdown of military operations. While it is globally known that the current civilian administration is spine- tooth it is now rendered powerless. With National Security Council (NSC) assuming more control over administration after the 2014 impasse, Nawaz Sharif has meekly surrendered. While elections are due for 2017, it is now largely believed that Prime Minister Sharif is all set to lose the job and will be replaced with Imran Khan, the leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.

Pakistan Army is completely averse to the concept of peace talks with India and with Nawaz Sharif who aspired to build on the peace process reduced to a lame duck prime minister, India may have to seriously go back to the drawing board and come up with an emphatic strategic plan towards Pakistan. Wading through neck deep waters of Panama Leaks, Nawaz Sharif has now slumped into disgrace. Meanwhile as Islamabad, goes around trumpeting India destabilizing Pakistan theory, it is time to look within. In fact the recent carnage at Lahore, terror strikes at Baccha Khan University, heinous assassination of young school students at Peshawar school, attacks on Marriot Hotel in Islamabad and a sharp spurt in attacks on Shias, Islamias and Ahmadiyas are nothing but reincarnations of the terror monster tenuously groomed and nurtured by it over years. Globally, nations that served as epicenters of radicalism braced internal implosion and collapsed. In spite of throes of the internal turbulence, Pakistan because of its strategic geographic location is consciously favored by an array of nations for their larger geopolitical interests. Hence the Pakistani dispensation is “supremely confident that it can weather the threats and emerge stronger”. But a serious oversight and miscalculation of the scourge of extremist jihadi ideology inflicted into the DNA of Pakistan might surely destroy the nation. Moreover, with no dearth of radicalized youth keen on upholding jihadi culture, assured free flow of sophisticated arms and ammunition and absence of governmental curbs on financial conduits terrorism is bound to escalate. With the South Asian jihadi gateway having no qualms of impending disasters sneering at its face, Pakistan might rejoice in the glory of extremist ideology. In meanwhile, as Pakistan continues to enthrall and revel in the process of radicalization, India must steer its economic engines at an enviable pace.

 

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