There can be no greater paradox than Saudi Arabia’s defence
minister and deputy crown, Muhammad Bin Salman Al Saud announcing an Islamic
military alliance of 34 countries to fight global terrorism. Intriguingly, most
member countries of the alliance feigned ignorance about modalities, kind of
cooperation and denied any official allegiance as such. Enlisted countries in
the counter-terrorism include Pakistan, Malaysia and Lebanon who indicated that
they didn’t have a clue about the conglomerate they are part of. Needless to
say, Saudi Arabia generously included its financial beneficiaries in the
alliance without consultation. Obviously, the sudden announcement might have
been a surprise for its votaries. Interestingly, countries like Uganda, Gabon,
Benin and Togo which are not Muslim majority countries were listed as members
of pan Islamic alliance (these countries do have membership in the Organization
of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)). While Muslim majority countries like Indonesia,
Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq are not part of alliance. Intriguingly, Indonesia, which is rocked by
terror attacks just few days back with twice the amount of Muslims of Middle
East and a strong democracy was not included. A mere glance at the list of
countries reveals that alliance is primarily constituted by Sunni-majority
countries. Crafting an alliance along sectarian lines and exempting democratic
regimes raises serious doubts about the intentions of Riyadh. By and large,
autocratic states tend to strengthen jihadi culture. With all the Shia-majority
nations purposefully excluded from the proposed global action against
terrorism, the alliance once again reflected the deep fractures in the Muslim
world which is largely divided along sectarian lines. Historians trace back the
roots of Sectarianism in Islam to violent conflicts of 7th
century.
To assuage heightened international fears of burgeoning Muslim
extremism and terrorism Saudi Arabia has created a sham counter- terrorism
alliance. Growing incidents of terrorism across the World was meted with
unequivocal condemnation with German foreign minister directly casting
aspersions on the extremist Islamic ideology championed by Saudi Arabia. It is
an open secret that Saudi Arabia perpetuated Wahabbism, an extreme form of
Islamic fundamentalism by pumping in thousands of petrodollars since 1970’s. Ever
since formation of Saudi Arabia in 1932 there has been a symbiotic relationship
between the Royal Saud Family and the Wahabbi clerks. The Oil-price boom not
only accelerated the pace of the economic growth of Saudi Arabia but also
bolstered its Wahhabi Agenda. The tremors of this far-flung ideology was
experienced by the world in violent rampage created by its denigrating
off-shoots like the Al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, Taliban, al-Sahaab, the Islamic State
and the Laskhar-e-Taiba, which engineered the 26/11 Mumbai Attacks.
Despite repeated alerts by various international agencies
alerting Saudi Arabia’s indiscriminate obsession towards spreading jihadi
ideology, grossly reflected in spending patterns, the World at large and the US
in particular chose to remain silent. Owing to its oil dependency on Riyadh,
the West never contemplated any serious action like imposition of international
sanctions. Emboldened by the Western approval, undeterred Saudi Arabia steadily
moved ahead espousing Wahabbi ideology. Nearly all the Madrassas and Mosques
across the World are recipients of copious amounts of oil money from Riyadh.
Following the Paris Attacks, under international duress Riyadh was forced to
clampdown on the charities but still individual donors continue to fund
militants.
Since ascent of throne in Jan 2015, King Salman’s regime
brought a marked change in Saudi Arabia’s domestic and foreign policy. With the
OPEC countries failing to reach an agreement to cut down crude oil supply to
World despite reduced demand, oil prices began to steadily fall. Incidentally,
the country’s economy propelled by the petrodollars received a jolt with
foreign exchange reserves plummeting from $746billion in 2014 to $669 billion
in July 2015.The country witnessed a deficit of $87 billion in its $224 billion
budget in 2015. Slowly the new regime began a crack a whip and reinforced its
strong hold by latching on to hard core policy approach. This was reflected in
drastic increase in number of executions. Further, military expenditure too has
peaked with Riyadh spending $200 million a day in Yemen. Apart from falling oil
prices and increasing military expenditure, burgeoning social spending and
public sector bonuses, an inevitable political necessity of the Monarchy to
survive tough times rapidly depleted country’s reserves. In part, tumbling oil
prices across the World markets is the handiwork of Saudi Arabia, for refusing
to downsize its market’s share despite the increase in number of oil producers.
Oil prices are soon expected to hit rock bottom as Iran’s oil is going to hit
world markets with international sanctions completely lifted.
International strategists lament that the anti-terrorism
alliance is bound to follow the foot-prints of the 10-nation Saudi-led
coalition of United Arab League Army, a joint military force announced in March
2015. Creation of 40,000 strong army equipped with sophisticated military
weaponry was floated initially in the Arab League. Curiously, in spite of the
official announcement of coordinated military intervention, such force was
never launched to fight the Houthis in Yemen. Saudi Arabia known for its
guarded foreign policy is now becoming increasingly interventionist. Saudi’s Counter-terrorism
alliance is opined by some strategists as a move to distract the attention of
its own citizens and World at large from the mess it has created in the poorest
Middle East country of Yemen. Prolonged air campaign to oust the Houthi regime
and reinstate Hadi government is met with unsubstantial progress. Moreover,
till now Saudi received formidable support from the US despite its
uninterrupted and unceremonious campaigning of the Wahabbi ideology. The newly
explored shale gas reserves made US self-reliant in fossil fuels and less
dependent on the Middle East. In the meanwhile, smart diplomatic actions of the
US and concomitant Iran’s adherence to the international nuclear agreement put forth
by P5+1 made Iran a significant geopolitical player in in the region. Iran’s
restoration of diplomatic ties with the West has suddenly escalated the
lingering cold war between Riyadh and Tehran. With successful inking of the
nuclear deal, Iran now enjoys greater international backing and UN endorsement.
Moreover with the west increasingly pressurizing the Saudi and Allies for their
inaction towards IS despite its continued rampage in Syria and Iraq, Saudi
Arabia cosmetically responded announcing the creation of counter-terrorism
alliance. Saudi announced an alliance largely to contain the emergence of
Shiite Iran and to strengthen the unity between the Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC).
Reports indicate that Senator’s John Mc Cain’s visit to Gulf and
condescending remarks of Ashton Carter, in part prompted Riyadh to initiate a
measure on terrorism. As the inhumane atrocities of IS continue to rock the
Middle East and Africa, the announcement of a counter-terrorism alliance
appears to be a sham event. The alliance was ridiculed by the IS Chief,
Al-Bhagdadi, who defiantly lashed out that alliance, “increased IS’s resolve
and determination”.
Incidentally, the counter-terrorism move by Saudi has been
the outcome of its inherent threat perceptions towards Iran’s growing influence
in the region. Precisely, Saudi is desperately seeking all options to maintain
its strong hold over the Muslim World. It campaign of Iran fomenting the Arab
Spring in Bahrain and Tehran’s continued support to the Houthi rebels in Yemen
has stemmed out its irrational fears. The new Islamic alliance is simply a
culmination of shared concerns of the Sunni nations rattled by its regional
adversary Shiite Iran. It is also reflective of Saudi’s displeasure towards US
and an attempt to build regional military coalition of Sunni states. Emma
Ashford, a senior research fellow, describes the alliance as a “new Arab NATO”
and essentially a “Sunni Arab defense pact". More so, the alliance is not expected to make
new forays since the GCC member countries Oman and Qatar have strong ties with
Iran and states like Pakistan are averse to committal of troops. Despite the
crown prince’s generous bounty of $1.5 billion to Pakistan during his visit to
Islamabad in February 2015, to reaffirm the Saudi-Pakistani strategic accord, Pakistan
failed to mobilize its troops for the Decisive Storm Campaign launched by Saudi
and it GCC alliance against Yemen.
To sum up, the counter-terrorism alliance launched by Saudi
Arabia by and large has no concrete plan of action and Saudi officials themselves
fumbled in elaborating its future course of action. Moreover, with larger
states like Pakistan defiant to military committal, a joint military action
will be far-fetched. Also, the alliance falls flatly on the claim that it is
representative of Islamic world. With Saudi Arabia which is now wading through
neck deep crisis of brewing sectarianism, its committal towards fighting the
IS, is highly apocryphal. Since there is no coherence of objectives, absence of
interoperability, trained personnel and strategists among the states it has
roped in to fight terrorism, the vivacity of alliance is contentious. Worse so,
even the term ‘terrorism’ isn’t clearly defined by the alliance. With tension
between Saudi and Iran ratcheting up along sectarian lines (by beheading of
Shiite Cleric Nimr-al-nimr and cessation of diplomatic ties between the
countries), Riyadh will undeniably try to safe-guard its own interests as
opposed to carrying a defiant campaign against IS. The dismal human rights
records of Saudi Arabia testimonies its contemptible adherence to Islamist
fundamental ideas and hence any Saudi-led initiatives to fight terrorism can be
dubious.
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