The Saga of Indo-Pak Strategic Relations

Modi’s unscheduled visit to Lahore raised a flurry of reactions with opposition branding NDA’s policy towards Pakistan as consistently inconsistent. Worse so, the parties within the Pakistan averse to peace engagement spruced up an attack on India in less than a week of celebrated photo-op. Calibrated derailing of peace efforts was unleashed in the form of Pathankot attack. The clandestine attacks besides attracting international condemnation has exposed the glaring failures of Indian security dispensation. Meanwhile, Modi has been punched hard by the political rivals for his smart diplomatic spontaneous Lahore stopover. Symptomatic of an emphatic statesman ship Modi coupled diplomatic credence with personal touch to give a great push to the peace process between India and Pakistan. The NSA level talks between the representatives of both countries accompanied by foreign secretaries, paved way for Foreign Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj visit to Islamabad to attend the Heart of Asia conference in December. Together, these series of proactive measures evoked great interest among the Indo-Pak observers who expected a spirited rejuvenation. Undermining the popular expectations and true to their historical articulation of animosity between the countries, Pathankot attacks have thwarted the ordeal of peace and thawed hopes of a renewed engagement with Pakistan.

The attacks which claimed lives of seven armed personnel has raked Indian wounds. The petulant indignation for India’s friendly offer and the reviled actions of the terror forces trained, perpetuated and patronized by Pakistani dispensation in the PoK region mirrored Islamabad’s Islamic fundamentalism. Truly, the real commander in charge of Pakistan, Raheel Sharif, a vociferous advocate of fundamentalist ideology propounded by General Zia-ul-Haq’s successfully pumped in copious amounts of the jihadi doses into the system. Pakistanis leaders, unlike its founder Mohammed Ali Jinnah, a secular modernist have turned it into an experimental site for sectarian violence and religious bigotry. Subsequently, the country have become unsafe for even Shia and other minority Islamic sects. By now it is amply clear that Pakistan’s pogrom of unveiling terror is a prime component of its de facto foreign policy towards India.

Undeniably while Modi scored brownie points for his impromptu visit to Lahore, by reflecting India’s avowed peace-abiding posture, the terror backlash by the jihadi elements in a much shorter span of time reflected the real intentions of Pakistan Army. Clearly India was unprepared and the attack on Pathankot airbase spread in a huge expanse of 2000acres with a 24 km long perimeter wall close to the international border substantiates the same. Though the prompt intervention of the security forces has stemmed collateral damage, the glaring lacunae of Indian surveillance system needs to be plugged to avert any such future misadventures. Ironically, while India has wasted its strategic assets courtesy Prime Minister I.K. Gujral, the latest attack on India’s forward base is viewed by Indo-Pak strategic expert, Christine Fair, as a major comeback for the Jaish-e-Muhammed (JeM) which largely lost its vitality owing to a conflict of interest with Pakistan in 2001. On expected lines, Pakistani establishment promptly condemned the attack and UJC (United Jihadi Council) claimed responsibility for the same. But investigative agencies trace back the return of terror to the revival of JeM. Meanwhile, Pakistani media houses spread a dubious propaganda that India has self-inflicted the terror attack to defame Pakistan.

JeM was founded by Inter State Intelligence with Deobandi terrorists who have close ties with the “Deobandi Afghan Taliban, anti-Shia groups like Laskhar-e-Jhangvi, Sipah-e-Shaba-e-Pakistan and al-Qaeda”. In 1999, ISI along with JeM together launched an operation of hijacking the IC-814 aircraft travelling from Kathmandu to Delhi and forced it to land in Kandahar, the heartland of Afghan Taliban. India government was forced to release three terrorists incarcerated in Indian jail: Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh and Maulana Masood Azhar for safe release of all the Indian passengers on board. These three terrorists who were denied safe-havens in Afghanistan were immediately sheltered by Pakistan. Pakistan army by publicly exhibiting Masood Azhar collected huge amounts of funds for its jihadi acitivities Masood Azhar soon strengthened the JeM and engineered suicide attacks in Kashmir. He was captured by Indian forces in 1994 after taking western hostages. Meanwhile ISI also trained another outfit Lashkar-e-Taiba to up its ante against India and train guns in Kashmir. While JeM has splintered due to its disagreements with Pakistan for bringing down the Afghan Taliban, Masood Azhar remained loyal to Pakistan as an invaluable asset. The faction that defected from JeM emerged as the Pakistani Taliban or the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP).

Though the US and UN proscribed Masood Azhar, Pakistani deep state nurtured JeM operating from Bahawalpur in South Punjab and shielded it from international condemnation. Meanwhile Pakistan having failed to persuade the armed TTP militants working against it launched Zarb-e-Azb operation to cleanse them from their operational bases in tribal areas. TTP were offered a chance of either joining the Afghan Taliban or join the JeM to fight against India. Pathankot attack symbolizes the emboldened regrouping of the JeM.  Perpetration of terror outfits in all the neighboring countries of India (Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan) has been the crux of Pakistan foreign policy.

As the hysteria and cacophony of dissenting voices of self-proclaimed intellectuals over the Pathankot attacks dominate the public debates, it is misconstrued that straight talks and wielding a consent for a dialogue with Pakistan is synonymous to waving a white flag. Instead of succumbing to the arduous recourse of knee-jerk reactions amounting to calling-off the comprehensive dialogue scheduled for Jan 15^th between the foreign secretaries, it would be prudent to chart out strategies that can inflict a calibrated damage on Islamabad. With Afghanistan government confirming attacks on Indian Embassy at Mazar-e-Sharif in Afghanistan on January were launched by JeM, India must prevail on Pakistan to act on its militant booty.

The animosity harbored by Pakistan is deeply ingrained. Vividly the betrayals and traumatic experiences of yesteryears faced by these antagonistic nations can hardly be erased. Pakistan’s narcissistic and imbued visceral hatred towards India hasn’t diminished over the years. Besides its obsession towards Kashmir, it is hell-bent on retarding the economic development of India. Its menacing strategy is now augured by extremist ideology, fuelling animosities. Wilful blocking of the transit of India goods through its territory to Afghanistan, incapacitating India’s role in restoring peace and stability in Afghanistan and keeping India out of peace talks in the South Asian region reflect the same. The resounding urgency demonstrated by Pakistan in wooing the Central Asian nations by allowing them to access its ports is an outcome of calibrated plans to compete with India. Pakistan’s allegiance to China and its growing affinity to Beijing too stems from the intentions of encircling India. Congruently so, the Indian Embassies in Afghanistan have been worst victims of onslaughts of terror supported and revivified by ISI. By perpetuating antagonism and revitalizing the militants trained to fight India, Pakistan has been persistently waging a low cost war and achieving its nefarious goals of destabilizing the peace and integrity of India.

Pakistan is boisterously poised, with its economy stabilized and aspirations resurrected by two powerful countries of the world. It is now ambitiously reenergizing venomous fangs of terrorism. Clearly, the empty rhetoric and stale promises of containing terrorism by the US stand out with Obama government tacitly approving sale of eight F-16s and extending the coalition support fund (CSF). Churlishly for a long time India has been exploring darker charters of peace process without reliable maps. New Delhi must endeavor to fathom larger objectives of strategic assets created by Rawalpindi, the key ingredients of its core national security agenda. India must evolve a strategy befitting of a strong nation. The economic paradigm of India has made a marked progression and its diplomatic stride must be emblematic of an emerging nation. Simultaneously, it must be extremely vigilant and cautious in defending its borders and strategic interests elsewhere too. It is not time for rhetoric and loud mouthed dissonant talks but a time to invoke, nurture and build a long term strategic plan.

While India continues to engage with the toothless civilian administration, headed by Nawaz Sharif enthusiastically, the armed forces that discriminate and coddle good terrorists are all out on rampage. Interestingly, as long as international community pressurizes India to engage with Pakistan and the US continues to extend red carpet welcome to the uninvited Raheel Sharif at Washington, Pakistan’s claims for Kashmir stands authentic. Pakistan is slowly bleeding India by pushing narcotic traffickers into India and steadily debilitating the health of Punjab public. Recent confessions by a BSF officer throws light on how ISI is infiltrating attackers armed with sophisticated ammunition and narcotics through the borders dressed in Indian army uniforms. (On a different note, even communal riots in Malda of West Bengal had a narcotic angle to it).

Modi government has clearly focused on making India war-ready for a conventional war by speeding arms acquisition, delivery and purchase process. Sadly, India despite facing the onslaught of terror from across the borders has failed to evolve a counter-terrorism strategy. For that matter, it is unfortunate for a country aspiring to a leading power in South Asia, consecutive leaderships have miserably bungled in developing a long term strategic plan to deter the insidious acts of Pakistan. Modi on his part, during his bilateral visits to several countries expounded the need and urgency for formatting a counter-terrorism forum. But as of now nothing has materialized, though Saudi Arabia under the international duress announced a counter-terrorism alliance, it is largely an Islamic family affair (rather Sunni sect conglomerate). It is now clear that India all by itself has to subvert the multi-pronged attacks of Pakistan (infiltration of terrorists and counterfeit currency through Nepal, pushing militants along porous Indo-Bangladesh borders and acquiring classified information by planting spies in Sri Lankan Embassy etc). India must shed its deterrence and should formulate new strategies. The potential strategies can include seeking Iran’s support in rejuvenating Baluchistan secession movement and potentially graduating economic ties for constructing oil pipeline instead of relying on TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) pipeline that runs through Pakistan. India must continue to extend armed support to Afghanistan and should affirmatively present its case at UN seeking a ban on JeM and freezing its financial transactions. Meanwhile, India must consistently work towards strengthening its ties with its immediate neighborhood and resolve outstanding issues amicably. New Delhi shouldn’t mince words in deciphering Pakistan’s abominable policy of patronizing terror outfits that potentially derailed restoration of peace in Afghanistan and bolstered cross-border terrorism and infiltration in India.

Ironically, fearing the nuclear clout of Pakistan, international community coerced India against launching an offensive action against Islamabad after the attacks on Indian Parliament in 2001. It is time India construes the double game of Pakistan. Indian leadership instead of being bogged down by calumny of hatred must impose serious deterrent costs on Pakistan when peace is violated without undermining its focused economic agenda. India has seldom imposed a time frame for action, Modi for the first time has set a 72-hour deadline for action. India was never rapacious and congruently and Pakistan habituated to obfuscation and tendency to delay wasn’t hard pressed to act. India’s attitude of no reason to “distrust Pakistan yet” might give it enough leeway to dismiss evidence provided by India as insufficient. Though Nawaz Sharif has assured “prompt and decisive action” with perpetrators of 26/11 moving scot-free in Pakistan, it is time India contemplates tough action aside indulging in bilateral talks.

In the meanwhile as Pakistan’s high pedestal began to shake with US Congress stalling sale of F-16s and CSF and following India’s stern tenor-Pakistan media reported arrest of 12 JeM terrorists in connection with Pathankot attacks. In a major development, Obama on his farewell speech apprehended that in the highly instabilized Islamic World, Afghan-Pak borders are poised to remain more unstable in years to come. With Obama clearly bringing international attention to the terror havens of Pakistan, the onus is on Islamabad to rein in on the alternative army raised by the deep state. Accordingly, a carefully worded statement issued by Pakistan PMO confirmed that JeM men were apprehended, offices in Jhelum, Gujranwala, Multan and Bahawalpur districts were sealed and that Joint Investigation Team of Pakistan will travel to India to aid in investigation on the attacks. Despite the assurances from the Pakistani Civilian government, owing to the dubious infamy of Rawalpindi, Pakistan’s committal to expeditious actions might have few takers. It is not sheer coincidence that Mazar-e-Sharif attack was carried by JeM operatives, who left a message in Urdu that Afzal Guru’s hanging was avenged. Though JeM operations were clamped down by Pakistan under international pressure in 2003, it continued to operate under the tutelage of ISI. Latest media reports indicated that JeM Chief was detained but Pakistan officials haven’t confirmed the new development.  With meeting between Prime Minister Modi and Sushma Swaraj and Jaishankar Subramanyam underway, India is to take final call on the scheduled foreign secretary talks. Incidentally, while detaining Masood Azhar in itself is a major breakthrough, Pakistan’s past history of inept judicial process undermines the credence of this spontaneous action. Alarmingly, despite mounting evidence it is not times up Pakistan.....

 

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