Haritha's Musings: U.S. Report Endorsing Pakistan’s Nuclear Posturing

While the high level diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan were jeopardized by intemperate last minute posturing of Pakistan, it is a great relief that the DG-level talks between BSF and Pakistan rangers slated from September 10^th to 12^th have begun on a pragmatic note in New Delhi. The talks which resumed after one and half years have in the past helped to evolve a pact laden with a set of confidence building measures. This pact fostered amity between the two forces and helped in quick repatriation of the villagers who accidentally strayed across Indo-Pakistan border to their homelands instead of a custodial arrest. So far India returned 15 villagers and Pakistan sent back 23 citizens who crossed the borders. But since 2013 there has been resurgence in hostilities and even the regular exchange of festivities have stopped. Amidst escalating tensions the talks have begun and agenda is believed to include a discussion on the non-clearance of Sarkanda grass on the Pakistani side of International Border (IB), illegal intrusion of Pakistani boats, sniper attacks targeting the civilians, smuggling of narcotics, pumping of counterfeit currency.

Meanwhile two US think-tanks The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and The Stimson Centre together released a report titled: “A normal nuclear Pakistan” a fortnight ago (1). The report authored by Toby Dalton and Michael Kripon quite characteristic of the US double speak, justified its infallibility towards Pakistan and postulated subtle rationalisations for normalisation Pakistan’s nuclear arena. Drawing parallels to the Indo-US civil nuclear agreement, the authors appealed to the US to consider Pakistan for a similar kind of treaty paving way for its eventual entry into global nuclear regime. Authors plead the US administration to extend concessions to Pakistan and seriously contemplate on helping it become “a normal nuclear state” on par with India. This intimidating explanation logically strengthens India’s doubts of the US double standards. It is intriguing as how the report chooses to ignore malefaction of Pakistan and its alarming pace of vertical proliferation of nuclear arms.

Despite being identified as the aggressor in Indo-Pak of 1948, 1965, 1971 and 1999 Pakistan seems to have floored the defence analysts of the US by invoking the apprehensions of being over ridden by a bigger country- India. With its obsessive paranoia of India as the enemy, Pakistan has embarked on a race of outcompeting India in nuclear weapons production. Post 1998 India shifted gears and focussed on building conventional military capabilities while Pakistan was relentlessly engrossed in bomb-building. While Pakistan blames India for the nuclear build-up in the region, international community must raise a toast to India for maintaining peace in the region despite unequivocal provocations from belligerent Pakistan and a nuclear weapon state China. Seeking a waiver of all the brutal terrorist activities funded by it to organisations like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) that carried the gruesome Mumbai blasts, it assures that it conducted massive a clamp down operations against extremist groups. But alas! Counter terrorism operations were directed against Tehreek-e- Taliban Pakistan (TTP) that targets the military. It is now a known fact that LeT works in collusion with Pakistan’s military and intelligence services and expectedly so, in spite of concrete evidence furnished by India stating its direct involvement in the Mumbai blasts no legal action has been taken. Pakistan in fact revels in patronising the scourge of terrorism and considers extremist groups as real assets of state. But tactfully complains of being victims of terrorism (read as Pakistani Taliban) and for not getting enough credit for containing some extremist groups.

Till now the popular deterrence theory holds that possession of nuclear weapons would deter nuclear exchanges and other conventional military threats. Nuclear weapons are reckoned as long term fixed assets of state since they checkmate the aggression of rivals. Observers World over feel that repeated provocations by Pakistan coupled with sustained toleration of sponsored extremist activities might inadvertently educe India into a battle with its neighbour. Principally nuclear states behave responsibly and try to avoid evade situations that can spark a war. But the combative nuclear posturing of Pakistan indicates that it is not a normal state. Envisaging a framework for mainstreaming Pakistan’s nuclear program is dangerously preposterous and illogical.

Pakistan has now come up with a doctrine of the “full spectrum deterrence” or “a new nuclear black mail strategy”, to counter India with weapons like Nasr (Hatf-9). Nasr is the most dangerous nuclear missile head in South Asia capable of carrying multiple missiles with a range of 60 km. It is a “low-yield battle field deterrent” and aimed at targeting the mechanised military brigades designed to tackle the “Cold start” doctrine of India (2). Pakistan is now seriously contemplating on commissioning more number of these tactical nuclear weapons to counter Indian forces engaged in the battle triggered by the actions of the extremist groups.

Over the past few decades, military leadership of Pakistan has been attributing its massive conventional and nuclear weapons build up to New Delhi. It threatened of an “open-ended” nuclear war race in South Asia if India is granted a place in Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) by passing its candidature. It argued that a place for India in the elite group will “embolden it to develop nuclear arsenal and would turn down offers of disarmament from Pakistan”. But the ground realities suggest otherwise. India in order to clinch a civil nuclear agreement with the US separated its civil and defence nuclear utilities in 2005, welcomed the inspection of the officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Upon satisfactory audit of the facilities the US and India signed the agreement in 2008. India with its impeccable record of net contributions to the peace and stability deserves to be elevated in the global nuclear order. Unlike the sporadic growth progression of Pakistan, India’s economic progress, offers immense scope for nuclear trade. Moreover India contemplates on diverting its fissile material for nuclear power generation from existing 4.5 MW to 20 MW offering great potential for nuclear trade. While India could conduct nuclear trade with the NSG states its full membership to NSG hasn’t received a complete nod. Unrelenting diplomatic pressures mounted by Pakistan has scuttled India’s chances of entering into four international nuclear forums. Civil nuclear agreement has come at a cost of India foregoing nuclear testing, accepting moratorium on production of fissile material for building nuclear war heads.

Post 2005 Pakistan urged US to have a “criteria based approach” and consider its membership for NSG. Since partition in 1947, Pakistan has been competing with India whose economy is 9 times of it in terms of developing conventional military capabilities. Indian economy strengthened over decades and congruently its defence spending has also increased. While India’s defence budgetary allowance is 2.4% of the GDP and military expenditure is 13.2% of budgetary expenditure, it is whopping 4.5% and 25% of total government expenditure by Pakistan. Seeking parity with India, Pakistan has been effectively milking the US and obtained $40 billion so far as military and economic aid. Now with a pretext of its inability to finance conventional military weapons Pakistan is rapidly developing nuclear warheads.

While India has an immense potential in the nuclear arena, it has diverted a huge of chunk of its Plutonium reserves for power generation and the highly enriched Uranium (HEU) of weapons grade for naval propulsion. Pakistan has now four production reactors at Khushab that produces 20 -25 kg of plutonium per year and constructs about 14 to 27 nuclear weapons an year while India with its available fissile material manages to produce 2-5 weapons. Presently the nuclear stock piles of India are in the range of 50 to 110 while that of Pakistan are 110 to 120 nuclear weapons. Both China and Pakistan overwhelmed by full spectrum deterrence are accumulating stocks of tactical nuclear weapons like the ballistic missiles, and Multiple Independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV). With these interminable levels of production Pakistan has long surpassed India in its weapons bounty. In the next 10 years its nuclear arsenal will be twice the size of India’s possessing third largest nuclear arsenals after the US and Russia. Intriguingly, Pakistan’s military leadership complains of threats from India. If possession of over hundred weapons can’t make them secure, any number of arsenal can never make Pakistan confident. Consequently weapon proliferation will continue unabatedly indicating that its deterrence is not fixed but relative.

Strategic decisions in Pakistan are made by the military and the intelligence services unlike the civilian, democratically elected authority in India. With its ruthless obsession of proliferating weapons, conventional and counter terrorism operations will suffer, adversely affecting the internal security. Even socio-economic development will be put on a back burner. Consequently a weak state will breed contempt would become safe haven for militants. Unlike the strategic weapons which are secure under responsible authorities, the huge scale of tactical weapons deployed in the areas near border are not safe and secure and there is every possibility of these weapons falling into hands of extremist groups. Unlike Indian leadership which values economic growth Pakistan’s compelling drive has been to launch punitive actions on India.

It is very startling as how the US which fiercely called for international sanctions on Iran that lasted for over decade and half for building nuclear weapons failed to censure Pakistan for its enormous nuclear stock piling. At a time when President Obama has successfully garnered support to push the nuclear agreement with Iran in the Congress, isn’t it the time to ostensibly reprimand Pakistan? The dubious assurances of Pakistan to restore peace in Afghanistan by fostering peace talks with the Taliban and Afghan government have miserably failed. The stymied Afghan President too should bank on Iran rather than Pakistan to rehabilitate Afghanistan (3).

Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) came into existence in 1968 stratifying the global order into Nuclear Weapons States (NPW) and Non- Nuclear Weapons States (NNWS). NPW includes the big five (USA, Russia, UK, France and China) who completed testing of nuclear devices and entered the treaty by 1970. They are now engaged in rapidly expanding strategic deterrence. Other countries that joined treaty became late comers or NNWS. India, Pakistan, Israel didn’t sign the treaty, openly tested and declared possession of nuclear weapons are treated as outliers. North Korea withdrew from the treaty in 2003. India by signing of the civil nuclear deal entered the global nuclear order and since late recognition of nuclear status is not permitted under existing NPT rules India is now strongly contemplating on gaining entry into the elite club of NSG. The US formally asserted that India meets all requirements, for full membership while China refrained from divulging any opinion. Certain countries voiced concerns that India should be party to CTBT too. If India gains entry into NSG it is widely believed that it might veto Pakistan’s entry. But with Pakistan becoming a burgeoning hub of extremist activities and with its past record of leakage of nuclear technology by A.Q Khan to Libya, North Korea and Libya is normalisation of Islamabad justified? Moreover with Pakistan going head on full throttle with full spectrum deterrence, countries are worried that Rawalpindi would end up using nuclear weapons for non-existential threats bringing down the nuclear threshold. Besides India with its no first use doctrine and the absolute civilian control of the weapons countries are assured of the effective enforcement of deterrence.

Despite the insidious attitude of Pakistan the report appeals to help Pakistan to become normal state. It recommends Pakistan to fulfil five conditions for its nuclear normalisation. These are: shift from the full spectrum deterrence to strategic deterrence, limit production of tactical weapons or short range delivery weapons, become amenable to talks on the fissile material cut off treaty (FMCT), delineate civil and military nuclear programs and finally sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). But Pakistan wielding to any these conditions is next to impossible as their military leadership firmly believes that nuclear weapons are matter of national survival. Further the recent US-Pakistan joint statement indicates that President Obama clearly favours integration of the Pakistan to the global nuclear order (4). Reassured of Washington’s consent the National Command Authority (NCA) of Pakistan began making unauthenticated claims that India has fissile material enough for 2000 warheads (5).

China has so far chaperoned Pakistan’s odyssey into the nuclear arena but with the US too giving into the Faustian bargaining of the Rawalpindi overlords, India might witness unprecedented ceasefire violations and intransigent infiltrations bids. The most debilitating account of the report has been its nonchalant account of Pakistan despite nurturing anti-India terrorists.

Haritha's Musings

Tuesday 15 September 2015

U.S. Report Endorsing Pakistan’s Nuclear Posturing

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