Across the
globe the concept of self-determination has been the basic tenet for formation
of different countries. People of different ethnicities have raced against time
to establish their identities by declarations of statehoods and vowed their
allegiance to their lands. In this process they defied all odds and tried to
showcase their patriotic fervour by fighting for the cause of their identity by
violent and peaceful ways as well. History is replete of examples where new
nations were carved by brute force or by peaceful modes of secession.
Referendum
ensures legitimacy of decision taken by people directly and not by political
elite and hence an issue of majoritarianism. But Kosovo though voted for
independent statehood by majority is not considered as independent as all members
of UN fail to recognise its independent statehood. Three set of factors are
found to be responsible for secession or self-determination- economic factors (distributional
issues and poverty), political factors (grievances, institutions and elites) and
structural factors (geography and demography). The issues of identity (ethnicity) are irreconcilable
as existence, interests and integrity are threatened. Self determination claims exist from a
continuum and they tend to change with time- from minimum claims of education
and cultural protection and autonomy, to control over regional government and
financial policy to maximal claims of outright independence and statehood.
Studies found that the escalation period from the non-violent protests
resembling conventional political activity to engagement in violent rebellion
took on average about 13 years. States view an ethnic group’s bid to control
territory as a threat and fear precedent-setting. Precedent setting concerns arise
because states fear that granting independence to one ethnic group will encourage
other ethnic groups to demand independence which can consequently weaken the
territorial integrity of the state itself.
Thirty new
states have come into existence following a referendum on independent statehood
since 1945. The average time period between referendum and Independence Day was
approximately 15 months. The achievement of independence has become synonymous to
obtaining membership of UN.
The year
2014 already witnessed three independence referendums- Crimean status
referendum which led to the formation of Republic of Crimea subsequent
annexation by Russia others were Donetsk and Lugansk status referendums which were
not officially recognised due to allegations of fraud. In the later part of
this year three self-autonomous states are itching to be free. Scotland has decided
to be an independent state and its residents are going to seal its fate on Sept
18th. During the earlier referendum people have voted for a
functional parliament, now the stakeholders are set to vote for independence.
The process has been green signalled by the UK government. Two other regions
are set to follow similar steps. Catalonia region of Spain is scheduled to go
through referendum on November 9th. But unlike UK, central
government of Spain government has declared referendum illegal. Though the
dates are yet to be announced, Kurdistan moves ahead with plans of independence
from Iraq through referendum. Unlike the other two regions, Kurdistan was
severely repressed and divided under the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein. It was
subjected to reign of horror and terror. During the recent insurgency in Iraq,
when ISIS forces have spread their strong hold across the North east region of
the country, Kurds under a determined leadership sent forces to safeguard their
boundaries. Kurds are religiously guarding their vast reserves of oil and
natural gas in Kirkuk region. Independence of Kurds is likely to be contested
as the neighbouring Arab countries refuse to accept the separate acceptance of
Kurds. Kurdistan demand for independence is understandable owing to the
torturous regime expedited on its land.
Catalonia on
the other hand with the population of 7.5 million in the nation of 47 million
is desperate about its self-determination. The long travails for this region
were recorded in the 17th century under the Francisco Franco
dictatorship period. It borders France on one side and Mediterranean on the
other. The spate of Catalonia if voted for independence would be bumpy ride as
European Union would not accept its membership. The current prosperity of this
region has been the outcome of its continued membership in EU. Even Scotland
would have to face the similar consequences as Catalonia to apply for EU
membership. Regarding the currency, Scottish leaders have indicated their
willingness to continue the use of existing currency, British Pound. Panama,
Latin American country uses US dollar though its transactions are miniscule
compared to the main land US. Preliminary surveys indicate that separatists in
the Catalonia might sway the region towards independence unless Spanish
government would be more generous in its budgetary allocations to this region.
Madrid’s uncompromising role has exacerbated the separatists hold in this
region. Unfortunately unlike Scotland’s referendum, Catalonia’s status
referendum is not recognised by the mainland Spain. Hence the official status
of such referendums is still questionable.
Similar to
Scotland, Kurds are entitled to rich oil deposits in the Kirkuk region. The
recent incursions of ISIS into Iraq have changed the political geography of the
region and Kurdistan received a shot in arm as US officials are silently
acknowledging its autonomy. But Kurdistan may fail realising its dream of
independence at this juncture, as it would greatly destabilise this entire
region. Moreover World leaders are backing the idea of “functioning federalism”
with Sunni’s, Kurds and Shiites forming a government in Iraq.
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