The radical
Islamist outfit ISIS, originally Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (Syria)
rebranded itself as Islamic State laid seize on major Iraqi cities. It kicked
off its campaign as a massive Sunni force in the Syrian Civil war with the
backing of Al-Qaeda. But snapped off ties with Al-Qaeda in February 2014 and
unlike other terrorist organisations, ISIS is known for its brutality and
extreme form of violence. They have strictest allegiance to radical interpretation
of Islam and fortified with vengeance towards Shia Muslims and Christians. ISIS’s
solemn aim is to establish a caliphate. Armed with brazen political motives ISIS
sparked off its operations in the Levant region which snow balled into a forest
fire threatening to engulf not only the Arabian Gulf but all the adjoining
regions. The remnants of the sparks are set to trigger massive destruction in
regions far and wide. The tremors of ongoing Iraqi crisis are now slowly felt
in South East Asia a region with significant Muslim population. Reports emerge
that following the release of videos of ISIS on social media incarcerating
Iraqi forces, recruitment into ISIS has gained momentum in Malaysia, Cambodia,
Thailand and Philippines.
The crisis
in Iraq was initially feared to cause a grave setback to the limping Indian
economy which is oil dependent. Iraq is second largest exporter of crude oil after
Saudi Arabia. Crude oil prices were speculated to skyrocket to $120 a barrel following
the ISIS take over Iraqi cities. Prices scaled to $112 initially as against the
existing price of $105 but stabilised at $108. Any major increase in the crude
basket could have a cascading effect on the current account deficit. For every
$10 barrel increase in price CAD could rise by $9-10 billion or growth rate
falling by half percentage point. The ballooning subsidy and escalating
inflation would have a tremendous effect on an oil dependent country like
India. To ensure a steady supply of 500,000 barrels of oil every day, Government
of India is expected to strike a deal with regional militia in Libya. India
experienced three jolts following the Iraq crisis in the form of increase in
oil prices ($112 a barrel), surge in Gold prices and devaluation of rupee to Rs
60.55 per dollar. Now it is time for the government to revisit the concept of creation
of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), a guideline recommended by International
Energy Agency (IEA) way back in 2003 during the Iraq. This long term
sustainable solution is believed to position the nation in mitigating any
disruptions in oil supply during unforeseen circumstances.
In India,
though the ramifications may not be imminent, with sizeable number of Muslim
population, third largest in the world (second largest Shia population after
Iran) clashes between the two sects- Sunni and Shia would have an impending
effect. Unrest and terroristic trial in the name of religion can brew internal
conflicts within India too. Hence Governments of Singapore and India have
reached an agreement to step up measures to contain these terroristic streaks
within their ambit. For India, the problems are twofold-firstly since India is
dependent on the Gulf for its oil supplies any unrest or instability in that
region is going to have direct effect on the economy of the country. Secondly due
to the perceived threat, that the internecine war might create internal
abrasions. Nearly 25,000 Shia Muslims have volunteered to defend sanctity and
honour of Shia shrines in Iraq after ISIS threatened to bulldoze all their
sacred places. The intentions of the people who wish to travel to Iraq are far
from sectarian till now. Since there are no signs of remission of attacks of
ISIS, devout Muslims expressed their willingness to travel to Iraq irrespective
of their VISA approval.
Another
issue of concern is the safety of nearly 18,000 people employed in Iraq. Most of
them are manual labour working at army bases and for construction & oil companies.
Last week Indian government successfully manage to bring back Indian nurses
held under hostage. Higher pay for the unskilled workers is major attraction that
beseeches them to work in spite of the dangers of war. More Indian nationals
are reported working in the Southern Iraq, a region 90% of oil companies. Though
the number of immigrants to Iraq is far less in number, their safety is still
an issue major concern to Indian government. With no traces of meltdown of ISIS’s
rampaging spree, all nations are worried about the rise of radical outfits with
aggressive ambitions of establishing a Muslim Caliph. Meteoric rise of such
extremist organisations like ISIS brew up tensions over a period of time across
different regions. Small radical groups tend to imbue and assimilate such
ideologies to accrue strength and strike back as monsters.
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