India’s Assertive Diplomacy Takes Centre Stage at Tianjin

PM Modi visited China after a gap of seven years to attend the 25^th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting at Tianjin. His participation at the SCO Summit has been more or less regular; however, the 2025 SCO Summit dominated the headlines of international media. Coming in the wake of Trump’s extortionist tariffs on India and PM Modi’s refusal to capitulate, his engagement with SCO leaders, especially with President Xi and President Putin, has stimulated outsized attention.

Cutting through the clutter of op-eds galore, it is vital to decipher the prominence of his trip to Tianjin. Miffed by India’s defiance, the MAGA extremists have especially been egregiously presumptuous about the India-China reset at Tianjin. But PM Modi’s enthusiastic presence at the SCO has several facets to it.

Restabilisation of ties with China post-Galwan clashes began in October 2024 after the complete disengagement of troops in Eastern Ladakh. At the Kazan BRICS meeting, leaders agreed to “explore a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution to the boundary question”. Subsequently, India and China held the 23^rd round of talks of Special Representatives of India and China on the Boundary Question (SR) in December 2024 after a gap of five years. SR Dialogue was suspended after the Galwan clashes. The last SR Dialogue was held in New Delhi in December 2019.

During the border standoff along the LAC, discussions at the diplomatic level were conducted through the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) and its military counterpart Senior Highest Military Commanders Meeting (SHMC). 17 rounds of WMCC and 21 rounds of SHMC meetings took place during the entire duration of disengagement.

The latest round, the 34^th iteration of WMCC in July, “expressed satisfaction with the general prevalence of peace and tranquillity in the border areas, leading to gradual normalisation of bilateral relations”. The 24^th round SR talks in August, steered by India’s Ajit Doval and China’s Wang Yi, agreed on- “Setting up an Expert Group, under the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC), to explore Early Harvest in boundary delimitation in the India-China border areas”. Additionally, they announced the resumption of direct flights, facilitation of visas and trade & investment flows, expansion of Mt. Kailash Yatra and re-opening of border trade through Lipulekh Pass, Shipki La Pass and Nathu La Pass.

A cautious normalisation of ties with China is already underway. Hence, the portrayal of PM Modi and President Xi’s meeting being propelled by Trump’s trade tantrums is misplaced. However, tariff weaponisation has inadvertently catalysed a recalibration. Making no secret of the tenuous global trade landscape, at the bilateral talks, Xi said, “The world today is swept by once-in-a-century transformations. The international situation is both fluid and chaotic. China and India are two ancient civilisations in the east, we are the world’s two most populous countries, and we are also the oldest members of the Global South”.  

For more than four years, India has diligently engaged in multiple rounds of dialogue with China, aiming for a full withdrawal of troops from the friction points- Demchok and Despang. Drawing lessons from earlier missteps, India has recalibrated its diplomatic approach with greater precision. China's strategy of prolonged negotiations—often designed to wear down its adversaries—demands unwavering patience and resilience. Through patient and persevering diplomacy, India has ultimately succeeded in breaking through the impasse. Hence, Xi understands that India is not an easy pushover. Beijing only respects strength. India’s defiance and resistance to Trump’s unwarranted economic coercion is a signal not only to Washington, but to Beijing also.

Entangled in a trade war with the US, China believes that a temporary reset with India is in its best interest. Battling with poor domestic consumption, trade imbalances, an ageing population and pension liabilities, China is keen on ramping up economic engagement with India. This aligns with India’s attempts to diversify trade to offset tariff pressure and strengthen its manufacturing capabilities. Given India’s size, growth potential and expanding markets, China is forthcoming about rapprochement with India. While Washington chose not to accept this reality to its detriment, Beijing is quick to grasp this.

Post-SCO, global media is awash with pictures of bonhomie between the leaders of India, Russia and China. Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb made a pointed remark, “My message, not only to my European colleagues, but especially to the United States, is that if we don't derive a more cooperative and dignified foreign policy towards Global South, the likes of India, we are going to lose this game”. The emergence of a vibrant Global South can no longer be ignored. Xi’s implicit reference to India and China as members of the Global South underscores the same.

Hinting at recalibration, PM Modi stated, “A stable relationship and cooperation between India and China and their 2.8 billion people on the basis of mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity are necessary for the growth and development of the two countries, as well as for a multipolar world and a multi-polar Asia befitting the trends of the 21st century”. Interestingly, PM Modi’s subtle invocation of Asian solidarity for a constructive partnership finds a resonance with President Xi’s summary statement, “It is the right choice for both sides to be friends who have good neighbourly and amicable ties, partners who enable each other’s success, and to have the dragon and the elephant dance together”.

The diplomatic trope, “the dragon and the elephant dance together”, has been more flourish than reality. However, the affirmation from leaders that “the two countries were development partners and not rivals, and that their differences should not turn into disputes”. While India is willing to be a partner in reshaping Asian destiny, its discomfort with China runs deep. India treats both China’s weaponisation of strategic supplies like speciality fertilisers, rare-earth magnets, and tunnel boring machines and Trump’s tariffs and secondary sanctions with equal scepticism and distrust.

Though India is reconsidering the FDI cap and easing its position on Chinese investment in the electronic manufacturing sector to jack up production, it is equally wary of Beijing’s economic entrenchment. The unresolved border dispute, recurring standoffs, blatant violation of mutual agreements, together with Beijing’s containment policy of India, geopolitical competition in the strategic Indian Ocean Region, continue to remain persistent irritants in the relationship.

Beijing’s attempts to emerge as a reliable foreign force in South Asia through its informal tracks with Myanmar and promotion of multilaterals between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh haven’t escaped India’s attention. China has drawn the Maldives, Nepal, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka into the SCO and is pushing Bangladesh to join. Alongside, Beijing is also weaving an alternative to SAARC without India in the South Asian region.

China's military intelligence support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, along with its repeated obstruction of UN sanctions against the Resistance Force (TRF) and its veto of global terrorist designations for five Pakistani nationals at the UNSC, continues to serve as a stark warning to Indian policymakers. These actions highlight the complex web of geopolitical alignments, where India’s current decisions are shaped not just by regional concerns but by the broader strategic calculus of global power dynamics.

Trump’s untrammelled bullying is shifting the world order. Seeking self-reliance and diversification, India is expanding its engagements and recalibrating ties. However, India is redefining relationships on its own terms. PM Modi has unequivocally conveyed India’s commitment to a “multipolar world and multipolar Asia” in talks with Xi. Stealing the light at the SCO with his infectious camaraderie, PM Modi certainly earned unusual approval from the Chinese.

Good optics make for better signalling. In geopolitics, appearances are important. Body language, symbolic gestures and display of bonhomie all have a role to play. The grand display of camaraderie at Tianjin, with three leaders of the top four countries chatting and clasping hands, went beyond symbolism. The coming together of PM Modi, President Putin and President Xi sparked the notion of a potential alternate world order.

India-Russia-China cordiality has grabbed headlines with US hawk Navarro accusing India of “getting in bed with two biggest authoritarian dictators in the World: Putin and Xi Jinping”. This kind of criticism reflects a poor understanding of India’s foreign policy dynamic. Unlike the modern-day Nation-States, India is a civilisational power which builds solid relationships for the long term and from the perspective of a worldview. Impetuosity is foreign to it, and it resists making decisions in a huff. National interests have always been paramount.

India has resolutely safeguarded its interests and continues to do so. In a major diplomatic win, the SCO condemned the Pahalgam attack and backed India’s stand to bring the perpetrators to justice. Earlier, at the SCO Defence Ministers Meeting, India refused to sign a joint declaration for diluting Indian stance on terrorism and for not mentioning cross-border terrorism.

Enunciating India’s vision for SCO as Security, Connectivity and Opportunity, PM Modi stated, “We believe that every effort towards connectivity must uphold the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Connectivity, that by-passes sovereignty, ultimately loses both trust and meaning”, and once again refused to endorse China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  Evidently, India refuses to make any concessions to China in pursuit of stable relations with China. This underscores the strength of India’s fiercely independent foreign policy, firmly anchored in safeguarding its core interests.

Fundamental differences exist between India and China. Beijing has to demonstrate its commitment through specific actions; grand verbosity can no longer work. The burden of sustaining this new reset is on China now. India has clear redlines and its foreign policy is rooted in its commitment to democratic values, the rule of law, and pluralism. This was clearly reflected in PM Modi’s absence at China’s military parade after the SCO Summit. Beijing sought to use the parade to mobilise national sentiment to position itself as Asia’s pre-eminent power. Indian participation would have positively legitimised China’s pursuit of domination.

The tariff war against India is an epic blunder of Trump’s foreign policy. This miscalculation allowed India and China to explore a partnership rising above differences. India has always rejected imperial tendencies and rigid groupings. Asserting independence, India is diversifying its relationships. The rubric of geopolitics is changing; the old order of alliances and kowtowing is passe. Multi-alignment and geopolitical hedging have come to dominate international relations.

India rejects the unipolarity of the US and the unilateralism of China. Amid Trump’s hardball approach, defining a clear sense of its own interests, India is affirmatively asserting its strategic multi-alignment.

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A Quantum Leap in India-Japan Strategic Engagement

PM Modi’s two-day visit to Japan to attend the 15^th Annual India-Japan summit meeting comes amid crucial geopolitical flux. At a time when President Trump seeks to upend the world order, nations are resetting their ties to cope with the looming uncertainties. Blighted by unpredictability, nations are reexploring bilateral partnerships and seeking to anchor ties based on mutual trust and respect.

Trump’s threatening tariffs and motivated secondary sanctions have propelled nations to reshape their partnership with a transformative agenda. Ending up with a short end of the stick, Japan, the US ally since World War II, responded to India's alacrity to strengthen the bilateral ties amid looming ‘Trumpian Disorder’. With close to eight decades of establishing diplomatic ties, India and Japan have a longstanding friendship and goodwill.

Amid the ever-changing dynamics of geopolitical power games, trusted partnerships have always been pillars of stability. Positively reorienting the convergence of interests and strategic outlook, India and Japan have laid down a 10-year strategic roadmap to weather the geopolitical headwinds.

Japan has been a part of India’s journey in Viksit and Atmanirbhar Bharat. Rooted in their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), upholding the rules-based order, and seeking to elevate the old friendship, leaders have taken a quantum leap in terms of enhancing cooperation. In these tumultuous times when lack of mutual respect and tolerance to sensitivities are destabilising ties, known for its discreet diplomacy of taking up differences privately, harmonising mature relationships, India and Japan have unveiled a joint statement -“Partnerships For security and prosperity of our next generation”.

Trump’s tariff fury and volatile foreign policy have raised concerns about America’s credibility in upholding the world order and its commitments to nations. Taking its brinkmanship to the next level, the US has tried to corner India. However, turning the adversity into an opportunity, PM Modi, in his address to the India-Japan Economic Forum at Tokyo, highlighted India’s transformation, asserting, “capital in India doesn’t just grow, it multiplies”, underscoring its stable economic rating.

Reinforcing Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC)’s testament to India as the most ‘promising’ investment destination, PM Modi extended an invitation to Japanese businesses to India. Be it official Development Assistance (ODA), metros, manufacturing, AI, high-speed rail, urban renewal, smart cities project, India-Japan partnership reflects mutual trust. Japanese investment, though modest ($34 billion), has great strategic weight. It is aligned with India’s long-term priorities like Make in India, Digital India, Startup India, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing. In the last two years, the Japanese private sector has announced 150 MoUs worth $13 billion with India in automotive, energy, aerospace, semiconductors and human resources.

Experiencing decades of prolonged economic stagnation emanating from the post-Plaza Accord, leading to a period of “Lost Decades”, Japan has never recovered from the asset bubble collapse. Further, economic mismanagement, demographic decline and an ageing population have exacerbated its economic woes.

The recent trade deal with the Trump administration of lower tariff slabs in exchange for an investment pledge has further left Tokyo high and dry, with Trump claiming the package as “our money to invest, as we like”. Further, surrounded by nuclear powers, in the highly contested Indo-Pacific theatre, Trump’s wavering security pledges have spurred debate among the US allies about American willingness to come to their aid in a conflict. Ahead of PM Modi’s visit Japanese trade negotiator scrapped a US trip, delaying the finalisation of $500 billion investment plan.

Once bitten, twice shy, Tokyo is also reassessing its options on economic engagement and security. PM Modi’s assurances couldn’t have been more timely. Positioning India as a ‘stabilising power’, PM Modi said, “The world is not just watching India, it is counting on India. Japan is a tech powerhouse and India is a talent powerhouse. We both agree that as two major economies and vibrant democracies, our partnership is very important not only for our two countries, but also for global peace and stability”.

Indeed, the timing of PM Modi’s visit to Japan ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has a strategic imperative. Amid the perception that Trump’s tariffs have pushed India into China’s lap, the annual summit meeting with Japan is a strong signal and assurance of New Delhi’s relevance in the shifting regional balance. It is a message that the India-Japan partnership will continue to remain as a counterweight to the muscular expansionism of China.

India and Japan elevated their ties to a “Special Strategic and global partnership” in 2014, and ever since, PM Modi has travelled to Japan for the annual summits eight times. With over 70 dialogue mechanisms and working groups, countries have intensely engaged with a myriad of ministries, departments, and agencies. Building on these accomplishments and leveraging respective strengths and complementarities, both sides have identified three core areas- bolstering defence and security, reinforcing economic partnership and deepening people-to-people ties.

With unsettled territorial issues with China, South Korea and Russia, Japan is facing mounting geopolitical challenges. Given its security vulnerabilities, Japan is seeking to deepen a strategic defence and security partnership with India. As a first step, to promote interoperability and synergy between defence forces and defence capabilities. Along with exploring cooperation mechanisms for defence co-production, co-development countries are planning to promote dialogue between Joint Staffs, maritime cooperation, cooperation in counterterrorism, peacekeeping operations, cyber defence and collaboration between special operations units.

 

Adopting a joint vision for the next decade, countries decided on ‘whole of nation lines’ to steer partnership through eight pillars. These are next-generation economic partnership, economic security partnership, mobility, ecological legacies, technology and innovative partnerships, next-generation health, people-to-people partnership and state-prefecture partnerships.

For credible and effective implementation of the initiatives, countries have evolved an action plan for India-Japan Human Resource Exchange and Cooperation and a Joint Declaration on security cooperation. Grappling with a severe labour shortage due to declining populations, leveraging complementarities, countries rolled out an Action Plan for talent mobility and a two-way exchange of 5,00,000 personnel, including 50,000 skilled workers over a five-year time frame under 16 categories.

Being two strong democracies in the Indo-Pacific region with converging security threats, India and Japan are natural partners. The defining speech of PM Shinzo Abe, “Confluences of Two Seas”, is credited as the guiding vision for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP).

Despite an enduring friendship, the bilateral trade is a marginal $23 billion tilted in favour of Japan. To enhance, diversify economic cooperation and make it more forward-looking, countries are reviewing the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed in 2011. Leaders have set a private investment target of JPY 10 trillion ($68 billion) spread over a decade in key sectors like semiconductors, critical minerals, defence and technology.

Recognising shared interests in safeguarding critical economic interests and factoring geopolitical realities and security configurations, countries have widely expanded the arena of cooperation.

To secure and strengthen supply chains in critical goods and sectors, countries decided to accelerate cooperation in critical and emerging technologies, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, semiconductors and clean energy. This heightened priority complements the existing collective partnership for resilience on semiconductors and critical minerals, through the Quad’s Supply Chain Contingency Network and Minerals Security Partnership.

Additionally, countries are working together through the Biopharmaceutical Alliance for building reliable supply chains and the India-led Global Biofuels Alliance to realise their climate change commitments.

Elevating symbolic goodwill to practical partnership, countries have signed a raft of agreements. The enormity of the aspirations and the ambitious vision set by the leaders is truly overwhelming. The Indian and Japanese Coast Guard signed a Memorandum of Cooperation. Countries have also signed MoC in Mineral Resources, Joint Crediting Mechanism and Cultural Exchange.

Countries inked a Joint Declaration of Intent on Clean Hydrogen and Ammonia (towards net zero economy) and several MoUs - India-Japan Digital Partnership 2.0, environmental cooperation, decentralised domestic waste management, diplomats' training, next generation mobility partnership, Science & Technology (first of its kind) and extended an MoU on India Beamline at the Photon Factory, KEK for six years.

Strengthening the Lunar Polar Expedition (LUPEX), countries sealed an Implementing Arrangement between ISRO and JAXA- Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, for a landmark collaboration on Chandrayaan 5. Both sides launched the India-Japan AI initiative, and PM Modi extended an invitation to the Japanese counterpart for the Open AI Summit held in India.

At the Annual Summit, countries launched a Track 1.5 dialogue of think-tanks to promote wider appreciation of security challenges and announced an annual dialogue of National Security Advisers (NSAs). India opened a consulate in Fukuoka with plans to establish business forums in the regions of Kansai and Kyushu to strengthen business, people-to-people and cultural linkages.

India permitted Japan, the first foreign development partner, to build infrastructure projects in India’s sensitive North East region. Trust and reliability are the bedrock of the India-Japan relationship. Synchronising India’s vision of Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions (MAHASAGAR) with Japan’s Economic Region Initiative of Indian Ocean and Africa, countries plan to invigorate business collaborations in South Asia and Africa. This arrangement can serve as a challenger to China’s BRI and counterbalance Beijing’s posturing as the leader of the ‘Global South’.

Alongside, to foster political trust, the State-Prefecture relationships are established between UP and Yamanashi, AP and Toyama, TN and Ehime, Gujarat and Shizuoka, with high-level exchanges between states and prefectures, including three visits in each direction, being explored. Countries also launched the India-Japan SME Forum and issued the Economic Security Factsheet outlining ongoing collaborations in strategic sectors.

The bilateral talks, which lasted for over two hours, apart from reviewing the bilateral cooperation, focused on regional and global issues. Countries expressed concerns over the situation in the East China Sea and South China Sea. They opposed unilateral action that endangers the freedom of navigation and overflight, a change in the status quo, and called for dispute resolution in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). They condemned the Pahalgam attacks and took note of the UNSC Monitoring Report's mention of the Resistance Front (TRF), condemned nuclear aspirations of North Korea and destabilising missile testing, the worsening situation in Myanmar and urged a return to democracy. They welcomed the Israel-Iran ceasefire, expressed support for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, and supported each other’s candidature for a seat on the UNSC. 

PM Modi concluded his trip with a visit to Tokyo Electron Factory, the leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer in Miyagi prefecture, by train, accompanied by PM Shigeru Ishiba. Later, PM Modi addressed a group of governors from prefectures.

Amidst a rapidly evolving and volatile geopolitical landscape, India and Japan are consolidating the old partnership, imparting a strategic dynamism. Infusing new vigour into the longstanding friendship, countries are gearing up to navigate global challenges together. Demonstrating a new resolve and shared commitment, countries are actively seeking new avenues to harness their complementary strengths. With a focus on unlocking the untapped potential, leaders are ushering the partnership into a new phase for tangible benefits and mutually beneficial outcomes.

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