Washington’s Riyadh Reset

In tune with the shifting sands of geopolitical dynamics, the Middle East is displaying a tremendous capacity to sail through the headwinds by rapidly recalibrating its foreign policy strategy. Besides being home to new mini-laterals, the region is grabbing all the headlines for a putative security alliance. The region is springing forth major surprises with its quick moves. Toning down on their inter-religious rivalries through rapprochement the region once dominated by the United States of America is chartering an independent course through assertive policies.

Etching this new approach by building solidarity, the region made a new beginning with the signing of the Stability and Solidarity agreement, lifting all restrictions on Qatar and ending the three and half years boycott. This was followed by serious negotiations on the Yemen ceasefire that reduced the high-level conflict but de-escalation is still not in sight absent a formal long-term agreement. Also, the stellar decision of the readmission of Syria into the Arab League after 12 years truly signified the massive revamp of the region. Putting an end to the seven-year diplomatic standoff, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced reconciliation. Amid the speculations of this rapprochement, Iran reopened its embassy in Riyadh on 6 June coinciding with the visit to US state secretary Anthony Blinken. These major milestones despite the US and especially the Saudi-Iran rapprochement facilitated by China, Oman and Iran highlighted a major strategic shift in the region.

Deploying Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has been silently heralding these changes in the region donning a central role. Besides nudging the nation away from bigoted religious priorities, the Crown Prince is introducing subtle, yet impressive changes to foster nationalism. But the real moment of truth dawned following Trump’s reluctance to defend Saudi Arabia from Iran’s targeted attacks on its oil infrastructure in 2019. For five decades, Carter Doctrine formed the central piece of Saudi’s foreign policy with the US pledging the security cooperation in return for seamless oil supply to the US and their allies. This prompted a serious rethink pushing Saudi to attune its foreign policy to the changing geopolitical dynamics with a foremost thrust on fostering national interests.

Mending ties with Qatar and Turkey is a part of this huge transformative effort. Persistent propaganda over human rights issues by the Democrats during the election campaign and an underlying caveat of the sale of weapons for defence purposes reinforced Riyadh the need to recalibrate its foreign policy.

Embarked on Vision 2030 guided by the foundational principle of diversifying its oil-dependent economy into a financial and commercial hub, a leading exporter of clean energy and a major tourist destination, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has introduced several economic and social reforms to change the international outlook of Saudi. The meet the massive requirements for putting in place a world-class infrastructure to attract tourists, Saudi needed additional revenue. To keep the oil prices and control the global oil markets, Saudi partnered with Russia to constitute OPEC+. Alongside, strengthened economic cooperation with growing Asian economies emerging as the top oil supplier of China, India, Japan, South Korea. In the process, it has diversified relations with these countries in terms of trade and investment as well. Currently, China is the biggest trade partner of Saudi.

Saudi’s security cooperation with the US came under stress with the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and the hurried removal of the advanced missile system Patriot batteries from the country in the faced attack threats from the Yemen Houthis created a sense of abandonment. Though certain air defence assets are redeployed, the force posturing of the US in the region appeared hollow and undermined the “broad and deep commitment” of the US¹.

Allegations of the Crown Prince’s nod to Jamal Khashoggi’s killing and calling Saudi a “pariah” state during the election campaign have furthered strained the bilateral ties teetering under the weight of a lack of trust and commitment. Biden administration’s attempts to seek to reset the ties and increase oil output have been lackadaisical. His visit in July 2022 failed to cut the ice. Pertinently, rebuffing US requests, Saudi along with OPEC+ members announced a further oil output cut by 1 million barrels per day in October 2022. Around the same time, Saudi’s economic cooperation with China galloped and emerged as the top crude supplier to China in 2022.

In the wake of Washington’s ban on sale of Predatory and Reaper drones to the Kingdom, Saudi stepped up drone imports from China. In March 2022, at the World Defense Show in Riyadh, Saudi and Chinese companies announced a tie-up and agreed to build military drones locally in line with Saudi Vision 2030².

Ratcheting up cooperation, Saudi signed $30 billion worth of thirty five agreements during Xi’s visit in December 2022 in the fields of energy, technology, transportation and manufacturing and agreed to integrate BRI with Vision 2030. Strengthening ties with the region, Xi held the first China-GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) meeting.  Consequently, wielding its economic clout and leveraging its strong trade ties with both Saudi and Iran in March 2023 mediated the reconciliation process. Apparently, caught unaware of China’s mediatory role that validated Beijing’s burgeoning diplomatic ties, the US is now making special outreach efforts to the Kingdom.  reflected a marked strategic realignment in the region.

Riyadh is showing great interest in China-dominated institutions. It has joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a dialogue partner and applied for membership in BRICS and the New Development Bank. Giving a fillip to the growing chorus of trading in national currency in the wake of US sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine conflict, Saudi openly supported “dedollarization” scripting a new chapter in its foreign policy.

Saudi began to hedge bets on major powers like Russia, China, India and other growing Asian economies. Cultivating investment, trade and energy ties with prominent countries, Saudi began to steer an independent course. Ukraine conflict and Russia’s weaponization of energy supplies helped Saudi realise its centrality to the global energy market. Riyadh’s assertive foreign policy strategy became more pronounced during the Ukraine conflict, when it diversified ties with both sides. Saudi voted against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but refused to condemn Russia. In September 2022, Crown Prince mediated the release of 10 prisoners from various countries as part of a prisoner swap process between Russia and Ukraine³.  Refusing to side with any side, the GCC countries adopting a neutral position are substantially rendering the sweeping US sanctions against Russia ineffective.

Prioritizing national interests, Saudi invested $500 million in three Russian oil companies- Gazprom, Rosenft and Lukoil just two months after the conflict⁴ and effortlessly pulled out a delicate balancing act by announcing $400 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine on Saudi foreign minister’s first visit to Ukraine⁵. The underlying framework for neutrality and reconciliation efforts with countries in the region is part of Saudi’s “Zero-enemy policy” to restore much-needed peace for stable economic growth and development⁶.

Saudi’s balanced diplomacy guided by the changing global dynamic and perceived withdrawal of the US as the security guarantor is now at the root of its foreign policy strategy. US preoccupation with Ukraine and Indo-Pacific has enabled the launch of Saudi’s Act East Policy. Pursuant to this, Saudi is mulling to carve out a guaranteed security architecture for the region with China, Russia and India built on the foundation of converging interests, firm commitment and trust. Perhaps, this objective has seeded the proposal of a grand naval alliance comprising Saudi, Iran, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Pakistan and India facilitated by China.

China’s growing influence in the region and the iconic Saudi-Iran peace deal has spurred Washington into action. As a counter to China, in May 2023, the US initiated the first ever meeting of NSAs of Saudi, UAE, India, and the US signalling the unveiling of another “Quad” for a “more secure and prosperous Middle East”⁵.

Washington’s intensification of engagement with the Middle East stems from its apprehension of ceding influence in the region to China. Days after the announcement of Grand Naval Alliance, US Secretary Anthony Blinken met Crown Prince MBS and held talks with his counterpart with Faisal bin Farhan. Sparing Saudis of the customary homilies, Blinken displayed a pragmatic approach and held discussions on energy prices, regional security, counter-terrorism and reinitiated the talks of establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. Approving the regional peace agreement with Israel, Saudi put forth two preconditions- two-state solution and a resolution on the status of Jerusalem. Saudi even sought US aid for its civil nuclear program.

The US which has downplayed the two-state solution of the Arab Peace Initiative remained noncommittal and remained a vital area of disagreement between the two countries. But reiterating its commitment to regional security, Blinken chaired a ministerial meeting of the International Coalition Against ISIS. US B1 Bomber flew along with combat aircraft from Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia over the Persian Gulf. Later the US bomber conducted exercises in the training ranges of Saudi which included air-dropping of live munitions over simulated targets as an attempt to push Gulf countries to take a firm stand against Iran.

US-Saudi relations are clearly grounded on the pillars of the energy and security cooperation. The snowballing energy crisis in the wake of the Ukraine conflict has been one vital aspect the US has expected Saudi to comply. Saudi has clearly moved away from this traditional obligation and reinforcing the same, announced a cut in oil production ahead of Blinken’s visit. Despite disagreements, the US and Saudi concur on the security of the region and the US can ill afford to undermine the same.  If President Biden fails to buckle up and shed its administrative inertia, Gulf countries are keen on forging security alliances with regional and like-minded partners.

Two days after Blinken’s visit, Riyadh signed agreements worth $10 billion with China at the Arab-China business conference. With ambitions of global leadership, Saudi Arabia is redefining its vision with a focus on economic growth and development^7..

The withdrawal of UAE from the US-led maritime coalition should be a wakeup to Washington. This announcement coupled with Iran’s grand naval alliance with UAE as one of the partners must force the US to re-evaluate and reset ties with Saudi and the Gulf countries. Through ‘subtle diplomacy’ of hedging bets, Saudi is mitigating security risks in the face of changing world order. Saudi is emerging as an influential regional and international actor in terms of global oil prices, Iran nuclear deal, and normalisation with Israel. The US approach of promoting small regional mini laterals like I2U2 driven by economic diplomacy coupled with security guarantees can be a real game-changer to counter Chinese influence. But above all the democratic regime at the helm must dehyphenate the strategic relations from political pontification.

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