As the chair
of the SCO, India hosted the SCO Defence Ministers Meeting on April 28-29. The
meeting was attended by the Defence Ministers from Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan,
China, Iran, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan. While Pakistan’s special advisor
to the Prime Minister on defence joined the meeting virtually. Chairing the
meeting Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh called on the SCO Members to eliminate
terrorism collectively and fix responsibility for those who abet terrorism. Reaching
a consensus, members signed a protocol expressing their collective will to keep
the region peaceful, stable and prosperous.
Rajnath
Singh held bilateral talks with defence ministers of Russia, Iran, Kyrgyzstan,
Belarus, and Uzbekistan. But the interaction that garnered much interest has
been the bilateral talks between Rajnath Singh and his Chinese counterpart Gen
Li Shengfu. This is the Chinese defence minister’s first visit to India since
the 2020 Galwan clash. Days after the 18th round of India and China
Corps Commanders meeting, the defence ministers sat across the table to discuss
bilateral issues. The Galwan clash has derailed the bilateral ties between both
countries.
For better
optics and a grand narrative setting, ahead of the SCO meeting and the G20
meeting to be held later in the year in India where Prime Minister Modi and
President Xi Jinping will meet, China has changed its tack and started making fresh
overtures for re-engagement with India. Besides, in line with its newest
surging grand aspirations as a major power and a peacemaker, China is now
investing in posturing peace with India.
As a
build-up to his discourse, the Chinese foreign minister, Qin Gang who was in
India to attend the G20 foreign ministers meeting in March met his Indian
counterpart, EAM Jaishankar. As per the Chinese readout, Qin said- “as
neighbouring major countries and leading emerging economies, China and India
have far more common interests than differences. The development and
revitalisation of China and India, embodying a boost to the force of developing
countries, will change the destiny of one-third of the World’s population and
bear on the future of Asia and beyond”1.
A similar
narrative was peddled by Ma Jia, Charge d’ Affaires Chinese Embassy in an
article published in the Hindu titled- “China, India and the promise of the
power of two”, which said, “China and India have far more common
interests than differences”2. Reiterating the same
perspective, on March 22, Ma Jia, in a press briefing said, “China and India
are not threats to each other, but an opportunity for each other’s development”
and “be cooperation partners to each other instead of being competitive
rivals”3. Notably, this was the window when Beijing was
flaunting its diplomatic makeover as a mediator.
Notwithstanding
the two unresolved frictional points in Eastern Ladakh- Depsang and Demchok,
China tried to project a rosy picture of the LAC. Trouncing this narrative, EAM
Jaishankar asserted, “The Eastern Ladakh remains very fragile and quite
dangerous”4. Coincidentally, similar divergent discourses
are now out in the open post India and China defence ministers meeting in New
Delhi.
The
Government of India statement read, “The Raksha Mantri categorically conveyed
that development of relations between India and China is premised on the prevalence
of peace and tranquillity at the borders. He added that all issues at the LAC
need to be resolved in accordance with existing bilateral agreements and
commitments”. While the Chinese readout said, “the situation on the
China-India border is generally stable and the two sides have maintained communication
through military and diplomatic channels. The two sides should take a long-term
view, place the border issue in an appropriate position in bilateral relations,
and promote the transition of the border situation to normalised management”5.
Post, the Galwan clash, India has maintained that unless the border dispute is
resolved, it can’t be business as usual. It has strictly adhered to this stance
in letter and spirit.
Denouncing
China for violating all the bilateral agreements that have eroded the entire
basis of bilateral relations, Rajnath Singh has conveyed that “all issues at
the LAC need to be resolved in accordance with existing bilateral agreements
and commitments”5. Subtly expressing, India’s
disappointment with Beijing whose words never match its actions, Rajnath Singh
avoided a handshake with his Chinese counterpart.
In the
course of 35 months long border stand-off along the LAC, both countries have
held over half a dozen rounds of military and diplomatic talks. Except for disengagement
at two regions- Hot Springs and Pangong Tso, the border remains very tense.
With India refusing to give in and cower down under pressure, the Chinese
strategic community is now perceiving India as a “difficult opponent” to
negotiate. Further, India’s aligning interests with the US in the wake of
deteriorating Sino-US relations has only intensified China’s animus against
India.
With a
reputation for wearing out opponents with its unyielding and implacable
concessions during negotiations, Beijing traditionally enfeebled opponent
countries. India had been a victim of China’s decades of China’s “deception
diplomacy” and subterfuge. Intransigence, reckless violation of agreements
and opaque negotiations are integral to Chinese psych-ops. Years of hostility have
perhaps sensitised India to China’s grey zone tactics. New Delhi is now
determined to hold its ground.
The latest
major episode of escalation after the cowardly and brutal Galwan clash emanates
from China’s unease with India’s convergence with the US on several issues. On
16, November, India and the US commenced two-week-long, high-altitude military
exercises, Yudh Abhyas at Auli, Uttarakhand, as a part of defence cooperation.
Around the same time, prioritising infrastructure development, Prime Minister
visited Arunachal Pradesh and inaugurated the first international airport,
Donyi Polo Airport in Itanagar. In an attempt to challenge India, China held
the first China-Indian Ocean Regional Forum meeting on November 21, 2022, with
19 countries in the region. India was not invited to the meeting.
Previous
political dispensation grossly neglected the border infrastructure development premised
on a ludicrous logic of connectivity abetting Chinese incursions. Making for
decades of neglect the current regime has expedited the border projects. This
enhancement of logistics and infrastructure is deemed by China as a threat. Determined
to intimidate India, Beijing is accelerating further the border skirmishes,
standoffs and incursions along the LAC.
Just days
after the conclusion of joint exercises, China made a nasty incursion into
Arunachal Pradesh’s Yangtse on 9, December, 2022. Ever since China has
intensified its muscular attacks against India directly and indirectly. China
engaged with Bhutan through the 11th Expert Group Meeting (EGM) on
China-Bhutan Border issues. Indeed, China’s intimidation and pressure tactics
made Bhutan King visit India to assuage India’s concerns.
In February
2023, India approved the Border Village Programme to develop 46 border villages
in four states including Arunachal Pradesh and raising of seven new battalions
of ITBP to plug gaps. Shortly, Indian and Chinese representatives for the first
time in three years held an in-person 26th Meeting of the Working
Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs
(WMCC) where no perceptible progress was made. Both sides reviewed the situation
along the LAC and discussed proposals for disengagement in two areas.
As part of
the G20 presidency, India held a meeting in Arunachal Pradesh on March 25-26
which China attended virtually to express its disapproval. A week after the
meeting, as a part of lawfare, miffed China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs
released “invented 11 names” for the locations in Arunachal Pradesh, a
third such list to date. To connivingly establish territorial jurisdiction, as
a measure of protest, post-Dalai Lama’s visit to the state, China for the first
time, released six new names for regions in Arunachal Pradesh in April 2017 and
a second batch of 11 names in December 2021 just before China’s Land Border Law
came into effect5.
A day after
China released the third set of names for Arunachal Pradesh, China announced
the upgradation of two Tibetan counties along the eastern sections of the LAC
to city status to facilitate more migration and rapid investments into those
regions. Additionally, these counties are put under the direct administration
of the regional government of Lhasa.
One of the
places Milin has an airport, linked to the capital Lhasa through rail and lies
along the highway connecting Tibet to Xinjiang.
Another county, Cuona is South West of the Bhutan border and is located
in the strategic Tawang sector. As per records, a part of Milin City and
two-thirds of Cuona City are in India-controlled region6. The
upgrade and assertion of sovereignty are part of the dubious game, China always
plays against its opponent.
Attributing
India’s border infrastructure development as provocations and belligerences,
China is indiscriminately violating the bilateral border agreement and
mischievously altering the border regions similar to the construction of Sansha
City in the South China Sea. Beijing is replicating the same in Arunachal
Pradesh.
Defending
its escalatory measures as a bid to guard against India’s “capriciousness”7,
China has ramped up surveillance infrastructure on the Coco Islands, frozen
visas of Indian journalists, Beijing has renamed nine places in Indian Ocean
Region8 and sullied the Dalai Lama through a contorted video.
Since the
2020’s China’s stealthy incursions, India has hardened its stance on the inviolable
issue of “restoring pre-2020 status” at the LAC. Preparing for a
long-haul New Delhi is steadily fortifying its defences along the LAC,
ratcheting up infrastructure development and expediting the border projects.
Alongside, India is getting ready for numerous rounds of meetings that hardly
make any headway. India has now learnt that patience is the only mantra with
China.
China’s cryptic pacifist posturing is a mere headline grabber. Thus far, China’s pacifist posturing has always been patently accompanied by territorial incursions have paradoxically ensured India would never slip into complacency.
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