Turkey: Undefeated, Neo-Ottoman, Erdogan Prevails

Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s stranglehold on Turkey’s political arena remains unfazed given his re-election in the recently held presidential elections that entered the second-round run-off phase on May 28^th. With 52% of the vote share, Erdogan defeated his opponent Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu to extend his regime into the third consecutive decade. His return to power was marked by a record drop in Lira against the US dollar.

The country which has been grappling with an extended economic crisis and destroyed by one of the strongest earthquakes went for elections amid rising concerns of mismanagement. Obtaining 49.5% of votes in the first round, Erdogan continued his sway and maintained his invincibility on the Turkiye’s political landscape. Much to the dismay of the Western political analysts who rooted for the opposition and prophesied Erdogan’s fall, the two domestic polls conducted a month after the earthquake showed Erdogan ahead of his opponents¹.

Indeed, after the first phase, Erdogan taking the advantage of People’s Alliance emerged as the winner. Formed in 2018 to support the Presidentship of Erdogan in 2018, the People’s Alliance comprised of initially four parties. But by 2019, the alliance included only two major parties- the Justice and Development (AK) Party of Erdogan and the Nationalist Movement Party (NMP) that supported the passing of a constitutional amendment turning Turkiye into a Presidential System.

After Erdogan’s AKP lost the mayoral elections in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir to Republican People’s Party (CHP) in 2019, the opposition has sensed some hope of pulling together against Erdogan. Soon, Nation Alliance comprising six parties with Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu, the chairman of CHP as their Presidential candidate entered the 2023 Presidential election fray. This coalition included Turkish Nationalists, Kemalists and liberals. Reeling through political polarisation, shoddy governance, plummeting economic fortunes, raising inflations, unaffordable housing, a crackdown on dissent and allegations of corruption it was widely believed that the opposition stood a great chance of toppling Erdogan’s apple cart.

But the opposition was a no match to the ace politician who has consolidated his power over the past three decades. Being in power since the turn of the 21^st century, the protracted economic crisis, botched up response to the earthquake Erdogan seemed politically vulnerable. But the opposition couldn’t make the best of Erdogan’s disconnect from the social and economic realities due to their poor poll strategy. Entering the fray with a pledge of governing with seven vice presidents, the opposition leader, Kiliçdaroğlu failed to project himself as a strong leader.  Promising to revert back to the Parliamentary system, the opposition resorted to populism and failed to provide tangible solutions to address the economic crisis.

On the other hand, Erdogan effectively used government machinery, resources, media and generously rolled out pre-election handouts and turned the tide around through doctored videos of Kiliçdaroğlu with PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) leaders. The balance was heavily skewed in favour of the Erdogan with the entire administrative apparatus inundated with his loyalists. Post 2016 failed coup, Erdogan purged all the officials who were against him. He imprisoned all the opposition leaders and intimidated them.

But importantly, even the opposition’s missteps have added to Erdogan’s gains. The eleventh-hour alliance of Kiliçdaroğlu with the far right-wing leader, Umit Ozdag of Victory Party who promised to return all the Syrian refugees has been a grave mistake. This last-minute clumsy strategy after the first run-off has alienated the Kurdish voters who dumped the Nation Alliance.

Being in power for over two decades, Erdogan effectively played with people’s fears by portraying the Kurdish parties as terrorists and reigniting the fears of the emergence of an independent Kurdish state if the opposition is voted to power. Enticing the voters through free household gas, salary rise, tax cuts and affordable loans, Erdogan played into the anxieties of people and has capitalised on them.

Election result vouch for the fact that people wanted to go with ‘the known devil than the unknown god’.  Thanking the people for the victory, Erdogan reminded them of the upcoming 2024 crucial Municipal elections. Ostensibly, with his coalition already a majority in the Parliament, re-elected for five more years, Erdogan is in total control.

Leveraging Turkey’s strategic geographical location, Erdogan tried to exert Turkish power beyond the region. His assertive, transactional foreign policy in these geopolitical challenging times have profound implications for the rest of the world.

Despite being a NATO member, Erdogan reoriented Turkey away from the West and unabashedly pursued an independent foreign policy. Willing to pay any price, Erdogan locked horns with Washington following the US refusal to extradite Fethullah Gulen, the alleged mastermind of the 2016 coup.

The rift further deepened after Turkey detained an American pastor on false charges of terrorism. Notwithstanding the warning from Washington, Erdogan brokered an agreement with Russia to buy S 400 surface-to-air missile system becoming the only NATO country sanctioned by Washington. The US subsequently removed Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program. Fissures between the US and Russia further deepened after Erdogan launched an operation against the Syrian Kurdish fighters in North East Syria with whom the US has partnered to fight ISIS. Claiming the Northern Syria, a part of Turkey, Erdogan defended Turkish military presence in the Syrian territory after the American exit.

Erdogan’s authoritarianism, brazen disregard for international rules, and aggressive oil exploration pursuits in the East Mediterranean region claimed by other nations bear close resemblances to the hegemonic expansionism of President Xi in the South China Sea. Comparisons don’t end here. Employing revanchist plans of turning Turkey into a global power, Erdogan called for a revision of the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne on his first visit to Greece in 2017. Stating that some clauses in the Treaty are not clear and must be revisited, Erdogan showed new maps on Turkish Television with borders of Turkey extending into areas that include present-day Greece, Bulgaria, Armenia, Iraq and Syria.

Since the Ukraine conflict, weaning the country off its Washington’s dependence, refusing to adhere to the NATO sanction regime Erdogan is scooping cheap Russian oil and simultaneously selling military hardware and drones to Ukraine. He played a crucial role in mediating the Black Sea grain corridor initiative. At the same time holding up NATO membership of Finland and Sweden, Erdogan also made bold bargains with the West. A transactional Erdogan is now linking the approval of Sweden’s bid to join NATO with the F-16 fighter jet purchase.

By cultivating friendship with Russia in spite of being a NATO member, Erdogan has enhanced the strategic importance of Turkey capable of swaying his powers either way. His re-election bestowed him with an opportunity to reset ties with the West on his terms. Capable of negotiating with different power centres, Erdogan has certainly placed Turkey in a very unique position.

The revisionism suffused with pan-Islamism and the agenda of the revival of “greater Turkey”, the embodiments of Erdogan’s Neo-Ottomanism have received a new lease of life with his re-election. Effectively wielding the Islamization appeal, Erdogan has shielded his inadequacies in governance and changed the foundations of secularism and democracy of modern Turkey.

In 2020, he ordered the conversion of Hagia Sophia, originally a Byzantine Church built in 537 AD but converted into a mosque by Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II in 1453 and designated as a Museum and UNESCO heritage site  later into a Mosque during the Covid pandemic to calm public anger. Unleashing the Islamization project, he converted a 4th Chora Church or Church of Holy Saviour into a mosque and declared all 1500 years old buildings open for Muslim worship².  

Driven by Islamist agenda, and determined to project himself as the Messiah of Muslims across the World, Erdogan is lending support to Muslims in Kashmir, Palestine, Myanmar and Xinjiang. After the initial solidarity with Uighur Muslims, he cautiously drifted away from the issue to avoid ruffling feathers with China. Erdogan ardently supported the radical Muslim Brotherhood (MB) during Arab Spring and cemented ties with MB leaders- Sudanese dictator Omar Al-Bashir and Mohammed Morsi of Egypt. Sudan and Egypt remained the closest allies of Turkey until the ouster of MB leaders. Now Erdogan is active votary of Kashmiris and supporting Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir, Turkey recently boycotted G20 summit at Srinagar.

To reclaim leadership of the Muslim Ummah, Erdogan has spearheaded an alternative Muslim alliance and chaired the 2019 Malaysian Summit with Pakistan, Iran, Malaysia and Qatar. But with economy on the brink of ruin forced him to mend ways with Arab countries. With political Islam losing its sheen, Erdogan would continue with the Arab rapprochement policy.

Through his misguided priorities, policies, sectarianism, unnecessary interventions and engagements, Erdogan overstretched Turkey’s resources and picked up fights with traditional allies, friends and neighbours. To outshine the founder President Kemal Ataturk and go down in history as the most important leader of Turkey, Erdogan abused power and turned into an absolute religious zealot. Dismantling the democratic institutions and instutionalising corruption, Erdogan has upended the basic fabric of the country. But adeptly managing foreign policy and using it as nationalistic vision, Erdogan has accumulated huge domestic political advantage. Given Erdogan’s priorities of global power projection and no stomach for bold reforms, Turkey might languish in economic morass.

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