Geopolitical headwinds have led to major realignments across the globe. New frameworks are being rolled out the existing ones are being consolidated. The Ukraine crisis has hastened major geopolitical churn with countries marshalling diplomatic capital to leverage their strengths for consolidating their strategic interests.
The steady
stream of world leaders to New Delhi after India assumed the Presidency of the
G20 and more pertinently its emergence as the voice of the 125 countries of the
global south has become a specific point of interest for Japan, the current
chairman of the G7. At the helm of two strong forums, both leaders are
objectively seeking to use their political influence to bring some consensus in
these uncertain times. As the most pivotal partner in economic development and
transformation and with similar security anxieties, Japan is India’s best
friend in the region.
Countries
normalised ties in 1952 with bilateral cooperation spanning different areas-
political, economic, defence and security, science and technology, education
over decades. In 2000, countries elevated the ties to ‘Global Partnership’,
‘Strategic and Global Partnership in 2006’ and ‘Special Strategic and Global
Partnership’ in 20141. Since 2006 both countries have held
annual summit meetings. Enhancing strategic depth of security and defence
cooperation, countries commenced 2+2 Defence, Foreign Ministers and National
Security Advisers Dialogue in 2019. Deepening this cooperation, countries have
initiated military and naval bilateral exercises “Dharma Guardian” and ‘Veer
Guardian’ in addition to the existing trilateral biannual ‘Jimex’ exercises,
Malabar exercises with US and Australia and the multilateral naval exercises
‘Milan’.
Similarly,
Japan’s ODA (Official Development Assistance) has been instrumental in
transforming India’s connectivity. Indeed, the former Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe unveiled the Indo-Pacific framework or the ‘confluence of two seas’
at the Indian Parliament in 2007 laying the foundation for the Quadrilateral
Security Dialogue of the four democratic countries (Japan, India, US and
Australia) or the democratic security diamond. After enduring initial
delinquency and neglect, the framework which was resurrected in 2017 is now
becoming a binding force for nations to evolve a common strategy for this
region whose security is threatened by the hegemonic aspirations of China.
Chinese
attempts to unilaterally change the status quo of the region and its muscular
posturing in the Taiwan Straits more so, after speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit has
firmed up Japan’s approach. The coming of age of Japan’s diplomacy bordering a
confrontational approach, a break from its defacto pacifism is now firming up the
contours of the regional alignments as well. China’s continued support of
Russia and Xi Jinping’s coronation has made things worse.
Diligently
upholding the West’s position on the Ukraine conflict, Japan has stepped up
sanctions against Russia, and as the G7 chair made support for Ukraine a
priority. Indeed, even a feverish pitch for the Indo-Pacific framework is
finding a greater resonance with foreign ministers of Quad recently meeting at
New Delhi; UK, US and Australia making new announcements on nuclear-powered
submarines and IPEF members holding the second negotiating table at Indonesia.
Around the same time, China is upping the game by mediating the Iran-Saudi
rapprochement, presenting a 12-point Ukraine peace plan.
Incidentally,
while Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has dashed to India for the regular
annual summit meet, President Xi Jinping announced a state visit to Moscow. The
dynamics of different frameworks in swift action in this region is truly
ushering the world into a geopolitical churn.
On his
two-day visit to New Delhi, Prime Minister Kishida and PM Modi held
wide-ranging delegation talks and restricted leader meetings strengthening the
existing pillars of cooperation-defense and security, economic partnership,
climate change, energy transition, people-to-people exchanges, skill
development and innovation. Rested on the pillars of trust and coordination
India and Japan have robust and multi-dimensional bilateral ties.
Countries
also exchanged notes on 4th tranche of JICA ODA loan of Rs 18,000
crores for Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail (HSR) and a Memorandum of
cooperation in the field of Japanese language2. Both leaders
reviewed the progress of the JICA’s (Japan International Cooperation Agency)
developmental assistance to the North East Road Network Connectivity
Improvement an indispensable for India’s Act East Policy.
In an
attempt to salvage the Buddhist roots and origins in India, New Delhi is now
unleashing the common cultural connect to advance its global interests. To
resurrect this connection, Modi and Kishida visited Bal Bodhi Tree in Buddha
Jayanti Park and gifted a sandal wood Buddha statue enclosed in a kadamwood
jaali box3 and later had a tete a tete enjoying pani puri.
As part of
the larger vision of Act East policy, under the sub-segment of Indo-Pacific,
leaders agreed to build resilient and trustworthy supply chains especially to
mitigate the challenges faced by countries in the region in terms of the debt
burden4. Indo-Pacific countries constitute the bulk of the
Global South and voicing the priorities of the global South is the agenda of
G20. Reiterating the prominent place for Global South in Japan’s latest White
paper on development cooperation Kishida is seeking an opportunity to build
bridges with the Global South.
Cognisant of
the food, fuel, fertiliser and opaque financing challenges grappling the comity
of nations, Modi and Kishida pledged to work together as the chairs of G20 and
G7 platforms respectively. Underscoring the agenda of the summit meeting,
Kishida wrote, “Prime Minister Narendra Modi and I affirmed that any attempt
to unilaterally change the status quo by force is unacceptable not only in the
Indo-Pacific but also in any region, and a peaceful resolution based on
international law needs to be sought”5.
Kishida’s
reiteration is in line with Japan’s latest posturing of expanding and
strengthening its scope of security alliance with the US, rapprochement with
South Korea after 12 years and announcement of a new framework with the US,
Canada and South Korea. China’s burgeoning incursions into Japanese waters and
intensification of Taiwan annexation besides breaching the First Island
Containment has pushed Japan to link Taiwan’s contingency with its interests.
This has decidedly changed the course of action of Japanese diplomacy which
pledged to defend Taiwan and undertake the responsibility of stability of the
Indo-Pacific. To this end, Defense White Paper released in July 2022,
interlinked Taiwan’s security interests with Japan’s national interests6.
In
mid-December, Japan released three papers- Japan’s New National Security
Strategy, Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program to safeguard its
security interests7. The new security policy deemed China as an
“unprecedented strategic challenge”, indeed, even in public surveys in Japan,
China has replaced North Korea as the number one threat8.
Japan committed to raise defense spending to
2% of GDP and increase cooperation with the like-minded partners in the
Indo-Pacific region. Alongside, Japan is quietly upgrading its submarine
capabilities adding its newest stealthiest submarine Hakugei, Taigei class
diesel-electric submarine to its fleet9 when Kishida was in
India.
The
Indo-Pacific framework officially took its shape in India in 2007. To make it
more relevant and foster greater cooperation amid confrontation and division,
Kishida shared a new FOIP plan- ‘Together with India, as an indispensable
Partner’ during his lecture at ICWA in New Delhi. He set forth four pillars of
cooperation of FOIP- principles for peace and rules for prosperity; address
challenges through dialogue in the Indo-Pacific way; multi-layered
connectivity; and safe use of the sea to the air. Kishida pledged Japan would
mobilise $75 billion in public and private funds by 2030 for infrastructure
development in the region10.
Burgeoning
geopolitical uncertainties and resultant global challenges are catalysing a
major recalibration of ties between the middle powers. In this context,
undermining the indispensability of viable partnerships, India and Japan are
seeking to firm up their vision on the Indo-Pacific, a region aflush with major
confrontations and conflicts.
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