India wary as Myanmar Junta and Armed Forces Close in on India's Borders

Since the 2021 infamous coup in Myanmar that led to the incarceration of the National League for Democracy (NLD) chief Aung San Suu Kyi and the retake of the country by the Tatmadaw, the country is sinking into a veritable collapse. Besides the muddled political scenario, the country is eventually staring at a split.

At a high-level meeting, the President of the Myanmar State Administration Council (SAC), Myint Swe, said, “if the government does not effectively manage the incidents happening in the border region, the country will be split into various parts”. This comes in the wake of the takeover of several military posts and border trade towns along the Myanmar-China border by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BA) in the first week of November. The grave statement has an element of truth and should ring alarm bells for the countries in the neighbourhood, especially India.

The military coup of February 2021 has enflamed a rebellion, which has picked up momentum since then. The (3BA), formed in June 2019, comprises of Myanmar Democratic National Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Army (TNLA), and Arakan Army (AA). After maintaining initial silence towards Junta rule and crackdown, the alliance openly declared their opposition by the end of March 2021. Following confrontations with the junta and suffering damages, the alliance partners agreed to a truce in November 2022. The groups used this peacetime to consolidate resources, regroup, arm, recruit, and train people.

Joining hands with the Ethnically Armed Organisations (EAOs), and Peoples Defense Forces (PDF) the alliance launched a massive counter-offensive on October 27, nicknamed Operation 1027, and captured the border city Chinshwehaw in the North Shan region. As per some reports, the alliance managed to seize control of 150 military outposts.

Brutal crackdown measures of the junta like carpet bombing, air strikes, and artillery bombardments have displaced several thousand after the ouster of the civilian government in February 2021. The rebellion counter-offensive which has now potentially assumed the interpretation of “second independence war” is now backed by extremely well-aligned and armed insurgent forces which are determined to overthrow the junta. Established ethnic armies like Kachin, Karen, Chin and Karenni have strategically allied with the National Unity Government (NUG) which has been at the receiving end of the Junta’s severe crackdown.

Myanmar's history is riddled with several resistance movements. But what makes the ongoing operation different is an uncanny collaboration between the various groups and waning support to the military junta even in its stronghold Barmar region. Despite the losses in terms of life and material and massive displacement, people are willingly supporting the rebel groups.

Coordinated attacks on the military junta across different parts of the country by various rebel groups are wearing out the junta. The multi-pronged attacks included- 3BA offensive in the Northern Shan, Karen National Union in the South East at the outskirts of capital Naypyitaw, occupation of highways and bridges by Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Sagaing and Magwe regions, and attacks by Chin National Army along the Indo-Myanmar border. Exhausted of resources and spread out too thin across the country, devoid of strategic depth the junta now finding it immensely difficult to regain the lost territories.

Junta is now additionally haunted by the scarcity of manpower and difficulties in redeployment and reinforcements with convoys subjected to ambushes. Junta has traditionally controlled the cities and towns. But the rebel groups are now stalling the movement of junta convoys by choking the roads and bridges.

China which wielded a restraining force on the EAOs is no longer averse to letting them loose. Given their frustration with the junta government’s inaction against the mushrooming of numerous scam centers targeting Chinese citizens close to borders. Internet Scam centers believed to be controlled by militia loyal to the junta are scamming the Chinese diaspora and have become the financial lifeline of the junta. The rebel groups that gained substantial control of the north Shan with key border outposts have promised to dismantle the scam center network. Scam centers have become a major embarrassment due to the brutal treatment of trafficked trapped victims.

Under pressure from China, the insurgent groups from Shan have handed over scamsters to Chinese police. Over 4000 people were sent over to the border. While attempts were underway to rescue and release the trapped victims, the guards of the scam centers reportedly shot dead several of them. It is in the aftermath of this event on October 20, 3BA launched a massive offensive. Though China has lent diplomatic support to the junta, their indifference to Chinese concerns, delays in BRI, and losses suffered due to the takeover of the border trade post by the 3BA have miffed Beijing. The 3BA has now taken over Laukkaing, a major township where an entire Myanmar battalion has surrendered and deposited arms.

Having made great progress, the rebel groups are in no mood to relent and agree to a ceasefire as they want to expand beyond their boundaries and consolidate their positions. They no longer see value in negotiating with a military government that doesn’t enjoy any legitimacy. To win constitutional recognition of statehood for their people within the new federal system, they are keen on striking a deal with a future elected government.

Chin National Army (CAN) captured Rihkhawdar and Khampat towns along the Indo-Myanmar border and this led to the crossing over of 42 Myanmar soldiers illegally into India. India has repatriated 39 of them back. In a similar instance two days ago, 29 Myanmar soldiers surrendered to Mizoram police. Amid this fresh offensive between the military junta and rebels along the Indo-Myanmar border, more than 5000 refugees entered Mizoram.

The major fallout of the rebels overpowering the military junta has serious repercussions for India especially in the Northeast. The insufficient military infrastructure along the 1600km porous Indo-Myanmar border has further exacerbated the issue. The Indo-Myanmar military cooperation which pivots on Myanmar’s military assurance of reining the NE insurgent groups has suffered a setback with the declining junta power. The insurgents, their supporters and even the people displaced due to the persistent gun conflict between the junta and rebellion groups are crossing over to India.

The undeniable link and the dubious role played by the NE insurgents in the wake of the political crisis in Myanmar since 2021 is becoming more pronounced. Insurgents have regrouped, rearmed and have become more active with the junta now training guns on the EAOs. Besides, the security angle, Myanmar is an important part of India’s Act East policy in terms of connectivity and to counter Chinese presence. A semblance of peace is crucial for the completion and operationalisation of the Kaladan Multi-Modal Project which can balance China’s Kyuakphu port.

Of the four Indian states bordering Myanmar, Manipur and Mizoram are witnessing a steady stream of illegal Myanmar migrants. As of July 2023, other than the still unregistered and unaccounted number of Rohingyas living in India, India is hosting 74,600 Myanmar migrants of which 54,100 have migrated after the 2021 February coup. Of them, 40,000 refugees are in Mizoram and 8,250 are in Manipur¹. The unabated flow of refugees and the subsequent unrest in the state of Manipur which has been on the boil for six months has become an issue of major concern for India.

This issue is further complicated by the outright rejection of India’s government’s order to collect biometrics of the refugees by Mizoram state citing ethnic connection. Gearing up for the assembly election, the Mizoram Minister said, “Collecting the biometric data of Myanmar refugees would be discriminatory since they are like our own brothers and sisters”². Indeed, the Mizoram government has forced the Meities who entered the state seeking shelter from rising violence to leave due to their ethnic solidarity with Kuki and Zo groups.

The Indigenous Tribal Leaders Forum (ITLF) of Manipur had tried to downplay the large illegal migration saying, “of course, some Kuki-Chin people have crossed over from Myanmar over the years due to hostile situation there, but that has never been in any alarming numbers at all” and even added, “immigration is being used as an excuse to drive Manipur’s indigenous Kuki population out of the land”. Ethnicity is of paramount importance to the various groups living in the North East. ITLF has opposed the screening of illegal migrants in Manipur terming it as “selective targeting”³.

The latest exodus of Myanmar refugees included the displaced from Chin, a region found to have the highest density of poppy cultivation as per the UNODC (United Nations Office on Drug and Crime) 2023 report. With the official ban on poppy cultivation by the Afghan Taliban in April 2022, cultivation in Afghanistan fell by 95%. But the cultivation of the same picked up pace in Myanmar and the “Golden Triangle” of the drug trade became more active.

Concomitant to these geopolitical changes, Manipur intensified a crackdown on poppy cultivation particularly in the regions bordering the Chin. Destruction of the poppy cultivation and the drug trafficking networks is among the main reasons for hilly Kuki angst against the government which has subsequently snowballed into a massive conflict between the Kuki tribes of hills and Meities in the valley.  

Underscoring the damning impact of the Myanmar refugee in enflaming ethnic conflict in Manipur, the Home Minister on his visit to the state blamed them for the violence. He assured that the ‘Manipur-Myanmar border will be sealed as part of a permanent solution to the illegal influx’. Tensions in Myanmar have direct consequences on the fragile peace in the Northeast region. Emboldened by the latest gains of the EAO’s in the bordering Chin and Sagaing regions, the ITLF, an organisation of Kuki-Zo tribes has issued an ultimatum to the central government threatening to set up self-government if their demand for a separate administration is not accepted in the next two weeks. An FIR is now lodged against the ITLF leader Muan Tombing for ‘waging war’ against India since there is no constitutional or legal basis for a demand for separate administration.

In the meanwhile, Indian government expressed serious concerns over the situation in Myanmar with the junta carrying out airstrikes to regain control of the border regions. MEA spokesperson said, “There has been a movement of refugees to the Indian side. We are deeply concerned with such incidents close to our border. Our position on the ongoing situation in Myanmar is very clear. We want a cessation of violence and resolution of the situation through constructive dialogue. We reiterate our call for the return of peace, stability, and democracy in Myanmar”⁴.

India is closely monitoring the situation and recently announced to holding of Indo-US-Myanmar joint exercises in Meghalaya.  Thus far, the military junta has adopted a divide-and-rule policy to wield its control. Reversing this strategy, the EAOs, People’s Defense Forces, and National Unity Government, the government in exile are trying to come together to bring an end to the military rule in Myanmar. The 3BA has been instrumental in bringing together these disparate groups of resistance coalition seeking autonomy and a democratic federal structure for Myanmar. Though differences and distrust still exist, the civil war seems to have attained a critical mass to topple the junta regime. But the tremors of the resistance are now deeply felt in India. New Delhi is seriously concerned with the conflict consuming the fragile peace of India’s North East

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Bhutan Refuses to Bite Chinese Bullet

Bhutan King Jigme Kesar Namgyel Wangchuk is on an eight-day-long visit to India. Duly received by Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma at Guwahati on November 3. King Jigme offered prayers at Maa Kamakhya Temple, interacted with the Bhutanese Diaspora, and took a jeep safari to the World Heritage Kaziranga National Park during his first leg of the visit to India. EAM Jaishankar called on King Jigme after his touchdown in New Delhi and this was followed by the official level delegation talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. From New Delhi, King Jigme will travel to Maharashtra.

While the world is engrossed with the events in the Middle East, China’s quick-paced boundary talks with Bhutan that have potential geopolitical implication in the immediate neighbourhood has kept India on tenterhooks. On October 25, concluding the 25th round of border talks in Beijing, Bhutan and China signed a cooperation agreement on the roles and responsibilities of the Joint Technical Team (JTT) on delimitation and demarcation of the boundary.

The Bhutan delegation led by Bhutan Foreign Minister Tandi Dorji met Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong, former Ambassador to India, who in his previous stint made a quiet visit to Bhutan in 2019. Weidong met Bhutan Prime Minister Lotay Tshering and conveyed China’s keen interest in strengthening cooperation with Bhutan, especially in tourism. Since the 73-day Doklam standoff when Bhutan openly sided with India, China has been rejuvenating attempts to woo Bhutan.

Dorji also met Chinese Vice-President Han Zheng who emphasised the establishment of diplomatic ties between both countries and acceleration of the boundary demarcation process. He also held talks with Foreign Minister and member of the Political Bureau of CCP (Chinese Communist Party) Wang Yi who again reiterated the restoration of diplomatic ties to serve the interests of both countries. Dorji conveyed Bhutan’s support to the One China Policy and willingness for resettlement of boundary issues.

By entwining diplomatic relations with trade and economic cooperation, China has penetrated India’s immediate neighbourhood with the sole exception of Bhutan. All Indian neighbours except Bhutan have joined BRI. As a matter of policy, Bhutan doesn’t have any diplomatic ties with the permanent five which includes China. Bhutan has diplomatic ties with 54 of 193 countries and hosts three foreign embassies- India, Bangladesh and Kuwait and four consulates. The tearing urgency in the Chinese engagement of Bhutan after an eight-year hiatus reeked of coercive statecraft.

Both countries commenced boundary talks in 1984. As of October 2021, Bhutan and China held 24 rounds of boundary talks and 10 rounds of Expert Group Meetings (EGM). After the 24th round of boundary talks, countries virtually signed an MoU on the Three-Step Roadmap (TSR) for expediting border talks. The recently concluded talks are a continuum of China’s renewed engagement with Bhutan. With an eye on India, China is wooing Bhutan.

Chinese intentions of infringing on India’s sovereignty can be traced back to the 1962 War, which is a work in progress with the Dragon making insidious attempts relentlessly to keep India on the boil both internally and externally. Igniting the Naxal movement the CCP stoked internal disturbances and the unabated salami slicing at the borders more pronounced and aggressive in recent years China became an inveterate adversary of India.

Post-Doklam, China has shifted focus to Bhutan to needle India. Towing a maximalist position, to intimidate Bhutan, in 2021 Beijing laid claims to Sakteng Wild Life Sanctuary in Eastern Bhutan bordering Arunachal Pradesh. But Bhutan defiantly opposed Chinese moves to officially register these claims. Chinese sinister claims to Sakteng stem from the fact that the sanctuary can be accessed only through the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh which China mischievously refers to as Southern Tibet and has recently included it in the newly released maps.  Refusing to yield to Chinese intimidation and its attempts to change the goalpost, Bhutan during EGMs insisted removal of reference to Sakteng and Gyamochen¹(As per the insider details cited by StratNewsGlobal) during official negotiations.

Bhutan also demanded that the demarcation of the boundary should start from Batang La as opposed to Gyamochen which is downstream of the Doklam trijunction. Adept at wielding carrot-and-stick diplomacy, Bhutan's refusal to budge from its stance on boundary issues has forced China to change its approach towards Thimphu.

India and Bhutan share a unique relationship and are treaty-bound as per the 1949 Friendship Treaty which has laid out that Bhutan has agreed, “to be guided by the advice of government of India in regard to its external relations”. Even the revised 2007 treaty explicitly outlines the commitment of both countries to “cooperate closely with each other on the issues relating to the national interests”. Indian territorial interests are closely tied to Bhutan. The Doklam tri-junction is very close to India’s Siliguri Corridor also called the Chicken’s Neck, the narrow land strip that connects mainland India to the North East region.

For years, China has been nibbling away Bhutan’s territory and with the construction of military infrastructure and roads near Doklam, China has attempted to choke the strategically important Siliguri Corridor in 2017. While India has thwarted Chinese attempts, China has been encroaching on Bhutan’s Western sector and regions in the North to ratchet pressure on Bhutan. Though Bhutan has officially dismissed the reports of Chinese encroachment, the latest satellite images indicated the presence of a permanent Chinese military structure close to Doklam. To gain control of Bhutan’s Western sector, China offered to swap 495 sq km in the North in lieu of 269 sq km in the Doklam sector. Cognizant of India’s strategic interests, Bhutan has turned down the proposal. Post-Tibetan annexation, China initially laid claims to nine sectors of Bhutan territory. Beijing has now narrowed it to two sectors. The ongoing boundary negotiations are expediting the demarcation of boundaries of these two sectors.

In an interview with Belgian news agency Le Libre in March, Bhutanese Prime Minister Lotay Tshering stated, “Doklam is a junction point between India, China and Bhutan. It is not up to Bhutan alone to solve the problem. We are three. There is no big or small country, there are three equal countries, each counting for a third”.  This implied that Bhutan and China could expedite the process of demarcating the borders in other sectors but Bhutan treaty-bound to respect Indian interests would refrain from any negotiations pertaining to the Western sector.

Notwithstanding China's propaganda machinery lamentations of- “How India tries to interfere in and take control of Bhutan”, Thimphu has always apprised New Delhi of the boundary talks. King Jigme who is on his second visit to India this year has understandably updated New Delhi on the progress of boundary talks with China. King Jigme visited India earlier in April in the aftermath of PM Tshering’s interview and the Bhutan-China 11th Expert Group Meeting at Kunming.

China’s pretence of peaceful border negotiations with Bhutan comes at a time when Beijing is facing Western ire for its muscle flexing and numerous episodes of collisions with Philippines vessels in the South China Sea and several aerial interceptions with American and Canadian jets. With global strategic discourse dominated by the Israel-Hamas war and the Ukraine conflict, China is attempting to tighten the noose around India and intimidate Taiwan. Sadly, China’s engagement with Bhutan is ill-timed. The Bhutanese populace who complained about over-dependence on India earlier is conceited about Thimpu’s decision to prioritise India, especially in the wake of waning global interest in Chinese initiatives and the withdrawal of Italy and the Philippines from BRI.

During the bilateral talks, Modi reaffirmed India’s commitment to its “unique ties of friendship and cooperation with Bhutan and reiterated continued and full support to the socio-economic development in Bhutan based on the priorities of the Royal Government and as per the vision of His Majesty”. India and Bhutan enjoy “long-standing exceptional bilateral relations characterised by utmost trust, goodwill and mutual understanding at all levels” and reflecting this spirit, countries are diversifying areas of cooperation. These include- trade, technology, health, environment conservation, cross-border connectivity, mutual investments and people-to-people relations.

Hydropower cooperation is one of the main pillars of the India-Bhutan economic partnership. Heralding a new chapter in energy cooperation, countries are now extending the hydro cooperation to non-hydro renewables including solar and green initiatives for e-mobility.

In sync with King Jigme’s vision of transforming Gelephu into a smart city, countries have agreed to upgrade facilities at the existing Integrated Check Points (ICPs) and designated two additional checkpoints Darranga (Assam) and Samdrup Jongkhar (Bhutan) as ICPs. Along with seamless entry and exit, ICPs facilitate trade and tourism. Simultaneously countries are expediting consultations on the proposal for cross-border connectivity between Kokrajhar in Assam to Gelephu in Bhutan along with a rail connection between Banarhat (West Bengal) to Samte (Bhutan). India is considering Bhutan’s request for concessional financing in skill development and capacity building. New Delhi has approved to designate Haldibari (West Bengal)-Chilahati (Bangladesh) rail route for Bhutan’s trade with Bangladesh.

STEM education, space, and startups are now prominently emerging as vital sectors for new partnerships. Giving a fillip to this partnership, India is doubling the outlay under the Ambassador’s scholarship for Bhutan students. India has now allocated additional seats to Bhutanese students to obtain quality education and training from Assam medical colleges².

Praising India’s G20 Summit for prioritising the interests of the Global South countries, King Jigme thanked India for developmental assistance for Bhutan’s 12th Five Year Plan. India reiterated her commitment to step up support for Bhutan’s 13th Five-Year Plan.

India’s strategic altruistic partnership fostering interdependence sets it apart from the feckless debt trap diplomacy and cronyism of China. India's neighbours, small countries are increasingly appreciative of New Delhi’s support to the invaluable socioeconomic development. Unlike India’s mutually beneficial and development-oriented partnership, laced with treachery, subterfuge, deceit and aggression, China has attempted to subjugate countries. Bhutan’s reluctance to undermine Indian interests has posed a challenge to Beijing’s free run to checkmate India.

China is going the extra mile to woo Bhutan to establish diplomatic ties and open an embassy. Beijing is seeking a wiggle room to tacitly severe Bhutan’s umbilical relation with India.  Even if China continues to engage Bhutan in border negotiations, the elusive diplomatic relations will be a reality subject to the settlement of the boundary. Given China’s penchant for keeping the borders hot and India unstable, cracking the Thimphu barrier is never easy.

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The Hindus of Hindustan: A Civilisational Journey

Brewing rivalries, conflicts, and more significantly the recent terror attacks have brought with world to a bind. Samuel Huntington’s “The Clash of Civilisations”, is no longer an event of a distant past. It is happening now and the threat is imminent. People, especially, Indians who are lulled into complacency are suddenly jolted. This new reality has further stoked the latent surge of a Hindu awakening. Battling to fight the war of narratives that continue to undermine the antiquity and most importantly the continuity of Bharatiya civilization, a conscionable attempt to decolonise the discourse has picked up pace.

More than ever, there has been a new interest in getting connected to the roots and deciphering the antiquities of the civilisational values that they hold dear. Catering to the dharmic quest for unvarnished facts Padma Shri Meenakshi Jain through her prominent scholarly works- Rama and Ayodhya, The Battle for Rama: Case of the Temple at Ayodhya, Sati: Evangelists, Baptist Missionaries, and the Changing Colonial Discourse, Flight of Deities and Rebirth of Temples: Episodes from History; Vasudeva Krishna and Mathura have broken the stranglehold of partisan historiographies which not only dominated the academics but the discourse. Through her latest book- “The Hindus of Hindustan: A Civilizational Journey”, Dr. Jain did a splendid job of providing clarity to the much-debated concept of national unity.

Setting the context, The Preface of the book starts off by saying- “During British rule, Colonial administrator/ scholars, confronted with the vastness and diversity of the country, declared “there is not, and never was an India or even any country of India possessing, according to European ideas, any sort of unity, physical, political, social, or religious; no Indian nation, no ‘people of India,’ of which we hear so much”” (Strachey, 1911;5).

Ironically for eons though Indians continued to pay an ode to the antiquity and geography of Bharat through the customary chanting of the Sankalpa and the purification mantra- “Gange cha Yamunechaiva Godavari Saraswati Naramade Sindhu Kaveri jalesmin sannidhin kuru” every day, the trusted Indian cultural sepoys of the colonial masters who were driven out close to eight decades ago prattle the whimsical Winston Churchill’s remarks of “India is merely a geographical expression”.

 As has been her wont, Dr. Jain who has clinically dismantled the concocted myth of Rama Janmabhoomi in her current work, shreds the deliberate propaganda of “India is a geographical construct” with undisputable facts. Tracing the references to India, Dr. Jain cites the 63 verses of Prithvi Sukta, the first national song of veneration in Atharva Veda, Panini, Katyayan, Patanjali, the Mahagovinda suttanta, the oldest section of Tripitikas where Bharat was described as Maha Prithvi. The shape of Bharat was likened to a bullock cart- rectangular in the north and conical in the south.

The Indian epics-Ramayana, Mahabharata and the Puranas have an immense wealth of information about the geography of the country like rivers, mountains, forests deserts, etc. The Puranas also talk about the division of India into nine portions (Nava Khanda), an idea that was adopted by ancient astronomer Parasara. Varahamihira’s Brihat Samhita actually provides topographical details of these divisions. The 10th-century work, Kavyamimamsa of Rajasekhara divides India into five divisions- Madhyadesa, Udicya, Pracya, Dakhsinapatha, and Aparanta these are identical to the Bhuvanakosa chapters of some Puranas. In fact, the “Five Indies” concept of Chinese can be traced to this division of India. Even Kalidasa’s Kumarsambhavam and Meghaduta are replete with geographical descriptions of India.

A common comprehensive term of ‘Jambudvipa’ is found across all these venerated sources-used for the territory extending from the Himalayas in the north to the sea in the south. Alexander’s historians who chronicled his confrontation with King Porus note that ancient Indians had precise information about the size and shape of their land. These observations are preserved in the writings of Eratosthenes (276 BCE-194 BCE), Strabo (64 BCE- 21 BCE) and Arrian (86 BCE-160CE). Two thousand years later, Alexander Cunningham concurring with Greek historians wrote, “they (ancient Indians) had a very accurate knowledge of the form and extent of their native land”.

The timeless Bharat civilisation has been extensively referred to in Vayu Purana, Markandeya Purana, Vishnu Purana, and Matysa Purana and the first inscription with the word Bharadhvarsha was traced to the 2^nd century BCE in Hathigumpha.  Hence, the mischievous and ill-conceived propaganda of Bharatvarsha being a ‘physical reference’ is totally misplaced and holds no ground.

The book also excellently encapsulates another astounding feature of Indian civilisation which is the continuity of cultural practices- worship of Shiva, mother goddess, trees, fire altars, the use of earthen ladles for yagnas, construction of ritual tanks adjacent to Hindu temples, worship of pillar or Skambha and certain yogic postures. This Vedic Skambha which is the cosmic pillar and Yupa or sacrificial place has extended to become Chakra Stamba, Garudu Stamba, and later into venerated Stupas of Buddhism and Jainism as well. Gradually the co-existence of different faiths became the defining feature of Indian civilisation.

This continuity is more pronounced in agricultural practices like the plantation of mustard in the North-South direction alongside horse gram in the East-West direction, the method of pounding grain, household chores, the use of carts and the curved beam of plough share, an iconic feature of Harappan times. 

With kings extending benefactions to all faiths, the sacred structures of various faiths existed and blossomed across the vast expanse of the country. Udayagiri, Deogarh, Badami Caves, Ellora Caves, Khajuraho etc. stand as a testament to peerless syncretism. There was no trace of any imposition of foreign faith on the indigenous populace. The foreign rulers embraced the native faiths and became an integral part of Indian society. 

The Ancient Indian lawgivers have facilitated the Indianization of immigrants. The admittance of immigrants and their communities into Indian society was illustrated in Nyaya Sutras of Gotama Aksapada (dated between 6^th BCE and 2CE), Vatsyayana’s Nyaya Darsana and Gargi Samhita. Interestingly, the assimilation is subject to “the acknowledgment of the accomplishments of foreign groups in various branches of science”.

Bharat is traditionally known to be a land where people have been connoisseurs of knowledge. Instructively, expertise in specific fields of knowledge or science becoming the basis for admittance of foreign rulers speaks volumes of the progressive outlook of ancient Indian society, its rare scientific temper that bestowed the highest emphasis on knowledge acquisition. This singularly destroys the warped Nehru-Marxist narrative of Indian society being orthodox, inflexible and xenophobic.

The foreigners which included Greeks (Yavanas), ancient Iranians, Kushans, Sakas (Scythians and Parthians), and the Huns embraced Indian faiths and their cultural and spiritual practices completely. But things changed dramatically with Islamic invasions in the 8^th century. Repugnance towards foreigners increased with the desecration of temples, forced imposition of alien faith, killing of priests, and breaking of idols. The Arab and Turkish invasions ruined the prosperity and people were forced to flee to safer regions.  

The book laid out in 19 chapters has two major sections titled – The Making of Early India and The Advent of Islam. Each of the chapters is standalone making the book an easy read. What certainly stands out are chapters 18 and 19 which shed light on why early foreigners became part of Indian society and not the later ones. These break into smithereens the carefully constructed discourse of extolling the Muslim invaders and the ignominious depiction of India as an uncultured society.

Replete with generous doses of primary and secondary sources of authentic references, the book can be an important starter for any enthusiastic dharmic reader genuinely interested in the time travel of Indian Civilisation. What sets the book apart is the continuity and connection between the Harappan and Vedic civilisations which it brings to the fore. Packing together several important milestones, etched with stories of Hindu resistance and the valiant efforts of the Hindu confederacy to repel the marauding Muslim invaders to the heavy influence of dharma sastras on Kurral, the book is a treat for history buffs.

This scholarly treatise expertly rebuts the jaundiced narratives and coloured perspectives that systematically denied the ancient Hindu civilization its due place.

 

Published by: Aryan Books International, 2023

Pages: 318, Price: Rs 995

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Ancient Marvel at Moola Mookambika Temple, Kodachadri

A vast majority of Indians must have known about the famous rust-free Iron Pillar found in the Qutub Minar complex, New Delhi. The corrosion resistance capacity of the pillar notwithstanding the severe pollution and severe temperature fluctuations of Delhi continues to awe Indians. The pillar stands as a testimony to India’s profound knowledge of metallurgy.

As per the inscription on the pillar, this was originally erected at the present-day Udayagiri near Sanchi and it is traced to the Chandra Gupta II period (375-414 CE). Referred to as the Garuda pillar or Vishnu pillar, this was brought to Delhi by Iltutmish in 1223. The rust-resistant properties of this rare metal pillar made of 99.72% pure wrought are due to the presence of phosphorus and low sulphur in iron. This marvel is believed to have been built by the pillar casting method. Phosphorus with the oxygen in the air forms of a thin protective coating on the surface and shields it from corroding. This unique pillar which is 25 ft tall of which 3.7 ft is below the ground continues to attract several tourists.

Nadir Shah during his conquest wanted to carry it back to Afghanistan and tried to uproot it and used even cannons. The cannon shell marks on the pillar validate the historical records.

Akin to the iron pillar in the Qutub complex, there are several pillars across the length and breadth of the country. The list includes- the Iron Pillars in Dhar near Mandu, Konark, Mt. Abu, Tanginath and Kodachadri near Kollur in the Shivamogga district of Karnataka.

The Dhar iron pillar is traced to the Raja Bhoja period installed as a victory pillar and is twice as tall as the pillar at Delhi. Emperor Jahangir makes a mention of seeing this pillar in his diary. As per records, the pillar broke when the Mughals tried to shift it. The three broken parts of the pillar are at the Lat Masjid in Dhar. The three parts weighing 7 tonnes altogether are completely rust-resistant. A similar corrosion-resistant 12ft 9 inches iron pillar of the 15^th century is found at the Achaleshwara temple in Mt Abu. The 239 iron beams belonging to the 12^th century, lined up in the complex of the Konark Temple are characteristically rust-free.

The great Trishul at Tanginath which is 17ft tall and 32 cm thick is believed to be the oldest of iron pillars in India. Records indicate that Mahabharata period arms were supplied from this region.

Another shining example that vouches for ancient India’s metallurgical prowess is the rust-resistant iron pillar at Kodachadri. Located in dense forests and nestled in hills, Kodachadri receives moderate to heavy rainfall for over 6 to 8 months of the year. The place is just 30 km from the Arabian Sea coast. Metals exposed to humid air tend to corrode much faster. Defying all these odds, a 2400-year-old rust-resistant iron pillar 32 feet tall and 3-4 inches wide continues to amaze the devotees of Devi Mookambika.

Iron Pillar

 

Description

As per local records, this less-known iron pillar which is twice in antiquity, half the thickness and taller than the Delhi iron pillar was made by the Vanavasis of the region. This iron pillar was gifted by them to Sri Adi Shankaracharya when he visited the hills in 600 BCE and performed penance at the cave of Chitramoola. Sri Shankara has consecrated Devi Mookambika and Sri Chakra at Kodachadri. The iron pillar is installed in front of the Moola Mookambika temple.

 

Sri Moola Mookambika Temple, Kodachadri

Armed with these rudimentary details of the iron pillar, we set out for Kollur in the Shivamogga district of Karnataka. From there we travelled to Kodachadri to see the pillar. To our amazement, the pillar stands tall proudly showcasing the metallurgical mastery of ancient India. True to the local folklore, we reached a small shrine of Sri Adi Shankaracharya as we trekked 2km uphill. Indeed, as the local version, the supposed iron pillar is a Trishul with the three prongs buried underground.

Sri Adi Shankaracharya Statue

Sri Adi Shankaracharya Shrine

The surface of the iron pillar unlike its Delhi counterpart is rugged and corrugated. Insitu metallography and scanning tunnelling microscope analysis found key differences with the Delhi pillar. The Kodachadri pillar has less phosphorus and less carbon. The pillar was found to be produced using the solid-state reduction process and it was heavily forged.

This specific case of the Kodachadri pillar underscores the fact that the vanavasis have been practicing iron smelting. The copper artifacts of the highest purity recovered from Mehrgarh excavations dated to 8000 BCE speak volumes about India’s exceptional skills in smelting, extraction, and purification of metals. Numerous copper and bronze statues from across India validate ancient India’s metallurgical skills.

The Indian-made “Damascus Swords” from Wootz Steel which contained 1.2% carbon as opposed to less than 1% carbon in regular steel has been in great demand, especially in the Arab region.  Aichinson in his book “A History of Metal Vol 1” mentions that copper metallurgy was discovered around 4300 BC in Elburz Mountain, Caspian Sea, Iran. Historians believe that Copper metallurgy travelled to India from Iran in 2000 BC. However, the discovery of copper artifacts in Mehargarh disproves this conclusion. India never received its due for its craftsmanship and metallurgical skills. The non-corrosive and rust-resistant iron pillars stand as an unparalleled exemplar to our Loha Vidya.

 

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Israel’s Right to Self-defence Fraught with Numerous Challenges

 Even as the world is struggling to come to terms with the throes of the Ukraine conflict which continues unabated, another front that has opened up in the Middle East has compounded the uncertainty and global instability. While the Israel-Palestine dispute spanning for decades has many shades of grey, Hamas terror attacks against Israel is a straightforward case of “pure unadulterated evil” that has been unleashed on the world. Terrorism can have no justification in a civilised world.

By butchering close to 1300 people (including citizens of 42 countries) and 4000 being injured within the first 48 hours, Hamas has underscored its policy of genocide and elimination of Israel. Only Jews are targeted. They were slaughtered for what they were. Worse so, they even brazenly flaunted their immorality without disdain. In response to the mind-numbing savagery, Israel asserting its right to self-defense announced to go after Hamas in full force which included a ground attack on Gaza. Designated as a terrorist organisation, Hamas voted as the defacto ruler by Gazans in elections unrecognised by the Western government, cynically hides assets in civilian areas like hospitals, schools, ambulances and UN shelters.

In a classic case of a terrorist outfit acquiring a state to control, Hamas began operating from among the most densely populated regions in the world. Unveiling a new protocol for asymmetric warfare, Hamas has started using civilians as human shields. Shooting rockets from the shoulders of the civilians, for over a decade and a half, Hamas escaped Israel’s wrath. Hiding behind the civilian frontline, Hamas has forced Tel Aviv into a ceasefire on several instances.

Indeed, Israeli airstrikes targeted at Hamas headquartered in civilian spaces are now decried by countries accusing it of committing “war crimes”. Amid protests and clashes between pro-Israel and pro-Palestine camps across different places in the world, putting things into context, the PMO of Israel has issued a clarification.

Notably, this comes in the wake of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh’s letter to UN chief Antonio Guterres accusing Israel of committing war crimes, “barbaric siege”, including banning the entry of humanitarian aid and medical supplies. Stating, “Israel is at war with Hamas and not with the people of Palestine”, the PMO spokesperson also informed about the recovery of Hamas kidnapper's guide and the “gruesome methods” to be employed for the torture and abduction of civilians.

Though the world has been a little circumspect in calling out Hamas for the pogrom, the spokesperson of Hamas, Abu Obaida in a pre-recorded message called attacks a “jihad” whose goal is “either to win or get martyred”. These surprise attacks were borne out of two-year careful planning with far-fetching objectives involving the training of a large commando force to carry out the operations. To take on Fatah, Israel has propped up Hamas and even increased work permits for Gazans anticipating a reconciliation. But this strategy backfired badly as the Gazans who worked in Israel doubled up as overground workers of Hamas in providing crucial inputs about the geography and intricate details of infiltrated Israeli villages and towns.

Simultaneously, Hamas has changed its tack. Delegating the task of managing the resistance front to the smaller Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Hamas intensively studied the tactics and strategies of Israel. By lying low, Hamas conned Israel into complacency which is evident in the grave intelligence failure of Israeli agencies in anticipating spontaneous or a short-term attack. This humiliation of being caught unaware of such a massive attack notwithstanding its superior intelligence services and well-oiled defence machinery would weigh heavily on IDF (Israel Defence Forces).

Hamas attacks, an outcome of long-term planning had given them the advantage of strategically analysing the nature and intensity of retaliatory of Israel well in advance. IDF, on the other hand, has to face the enormous challenge of having to dismantle the deeply entrenched network of underground tunnels from which Hamas operates.

The problem is twofold- unlike the conventional war of taking the enemy on the frontlines, IDF has to deal with the fallouts of the significant collateral damage and an enemy with superior urban warfare capabilities. Tracking down the enemy in its own territory among the dark tunnels whose location can’t be detected by GPS is fraught with a lot of risks. IDF must be prepared for surprise attacks, bobby traps and direct combat in an unknown location where advanced technology would be rendered defunct. The honeycomb of tunnels is an operating ground for Hamas and until and unless they are destroyed, ceaseless rounds of rocket attacks on Israel will continue to recur.

To paralyse the urban warfare of Hamas, the IDF must be ready for a long haul which includes air strikes and ground attacks. Hamas strategic assets are securely sheltered in underground tunnels and bunkers. Israel’s move to wipe out Hamas will be incomplete without methodical demolition of the subterranean tunnel infrastructure- the veritable parallel world of Hamas. Any attempt to seal, demolish or flood the tunnel will leave a massive trail of destruction in the civilian areas.

Also, with a full-fledged attack on Gaza, Israel is going to get dragged into a quagmire similar to its close to two-decades long Lebanon campaign. Hamas has challenged Israel and shaken its invincibility. Now Israel is left with no other choice than to bite the bullet. Wiping out the terror network is now a priority to have a semblance of peace.

Since the Hamas terror attacks, Israel has intensified air raids to neutralise Hamas leadership. The collateral damage inflicted on the civilians during these attacks is now eliciting huge backlash from several countries and international agencies. Hamas attacks have been laced with geopolitical considerations. This is now coming to the fore with countries rallying to build pressure on Israel by drawing a reprehensible moral equivalence between Hamas terror attacks and retaliatory counter-air strikes. Russia moved a resolution at the UNSC backed by Gabon, China, UAE and Mozambique calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. Iran is mobilising the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) to impose oil embargo on Israel.

Israel’s aerial strikes in Gaza are now subject to different interpretations with agencies invoking International Humanitarian Law which in contemporary times is governed by the United Nations Charter. The Israel-Hamas conflict is not a war between two sovereign states. Hence, the ‘Prisoners of War’ or ‘war crimes’ concept is not applicable. The ongoing conflict is a “non-international armed conflict”, categorised as a civil war between the armed forces of a state taking an armed non-state actor. The warring sides are expected to adhere to Article 3 of the Geneva Convention which prohibits practices like torture, summary execution and denial of fair trial.

Whatever be nature of the conflict, the safety of civilians is of utmost priority and the UN Charter reinforces that, “the party in control of the civilian population must not place them at heightened risk of harm by using them as human shields and the attacking force must take precautions to avoid or minimise excessive civilian causalities when attacking lawful targets”¹. Israel which is evacuating its citizens to safety from the Gazan border regions and North to protect them from Hezbollah strikes has closed the borders. To contain the collateral damage before launching ground attacks, Israel ordered the evacuation of civilians in North Gaza. But Hamas has erected blocks on roads stopping the movement of vehicular traffic to the South.

After the outbreak of the Ukrainian War, the neighbouring countries opened the border to accommodate displaced Ukrainians. Egypt on the contrary, concretised the lone border crossing to Gaza at Rafah and refused to offer shelter to the displaced Palestinians. Jordan has outrightly rejected any Palestinian refugees.

Israel announced a complete siege over Gaza along with retaliatory strikes. But offered to restore power, water, and food supplies to the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of hostages. But rather (un)surprisingly, advocates of the peace process and Muslim countries, the UN has so far been determinedly reluctant to prevail on Hamas for the release of hostages.

Ten days into the airstrikes, Israel climbed down on its position and agreed to evolve a plan with the US to allow necessary aid to Gazans to prevent a humanitarian crisis. On the contrary, compounding civilian misery, UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees) indicated that Hamas had stolen fuel and medicine meant for refugees. Hamas has weaponised civilians for its “jihad” against Israel. It has been used the death, devastation and human agony for a coloured global perception.

Besides, the indifference of the Islamic countries towards the plight of Muslim Palestinians is rather intriguing. The facetious and insincere high moral ground of the Muslim countries towards Palestine is rife with double speak and hypocrisy. None of the Arab countries are committed to the Palestine statehood. For decades, they have used Palestine for geopolitical games. This chicanery has become more equivocal with Hamas attacks.

Finally, geopolitically, the Middle East which is going through episodes of normalisation and reconciliation will witness a drastic realignment. The transformation and journey of the region from being a powder keg to a development-driven agenda will take a hit. Israel’s normalisation of diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia will be kept on hold for an indefinite period. The proposed take-off of India-Middle East- Europe will be halted.

The fledgling axis of China-Iran-Russia might receive a new lease on life and anti-western sentiment will be out in the open with full vengeance. Hostility will return to Israel’s neighbourhood. Iran will unabashedly unleash its handmaidens-Hamas and Hezbollah to strike at Israel with vehemence. With an estimated 130,000 missiles, Hezbollah has the largest stockpile of missiles in the world.

The air strike on Al-Alhi hospital that killed over 500 civilians, allegedly caused by rocket misfire ahead of President Biden’s visit to Israel evaporated the last hope of a diplomatic effort to contain the conflict after Jordan pulled out from the summit talks between the US, Egypt, Palestine Authority and Jordan to be held at Amman. “Hospital massacre” has flared up tensions in the region and protesting Jordanians attempted to torch the Israeli embassy. With Iran dispatching militia to Lebanon through Syria, the frontal attacks on Israel are bound to intensify, widening it further.

The root cause for the current attack isn’t the perceived Israeli denial of statehood for Palestine. Though it is incidental, the primary motivation is the doctrine of rejection of Israel’s right to exist. The brutality of Hamas has extinguished all chances of a peace negotiation. Given a foreboding existential threat, Israel is left with no other option than asserting its right to self-defence.

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There Can Be No Justification for HAMAS Terror Attacks. The World must stand with Israel.

Just a day after the 50 years anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, an unprecedented attack in the annals of Israeli history unfolded as Jews observed one of the holiest days of the Simchat Torah. HAMAS terrorists from Gaza attacked Israel by air, land and sea. The infiltrators breached the Southern border and launched one of the deadliest attacks. Declaring “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood”, HAMAS fired 5000 rockets toward Israel in 20 minutes. The operation was named so, to detest the raids by Israeli forces on Al-Aqsa Mosque.  This provided a cover fire to the infiltrators. Even the near-perfect Iron Dome with a 90 percent success rate was overwhelmed by the rockets fired from the Salvo rocket launcher.

Unlike the Yom Kippur War, where Israelis fought back against the coalition of Arab armies led by Egypt and Syrian armies, on October 7 shocked Israelis were woken up by a macabre of savagery waged by non-military jihadi groups. The infiltrators made their way in droves boring holes into the $1 billion impregnable border fortified with numerous sensors, cameras, and security mechanisms. Entering the Israeli towns and villages, the terrorists conducted door to door searches killing every person on their way. They brutally raped Jewish women, mutilated their bodies and paraded the corpses. Those who weren’t killed including children, elderly people and some women were dragged by their hair were transported back to Gaza as hostages. Contrary to a conventional war, which is waged across borders, the infiltrators made their way into the territory and unleashed mayhem that is unthinkable, inhuman and barbaric killing hundreds of hapless innocent people.

The infiltrators estimated to be over 1000 and armed to the teeth went on a killing spree and as many as 250 bodies were recovered from the site of a Music festival alone held at the Gaza border. As per some reports over 700 people were killed and 2000 were injured in the first two days. These numbers far exceeded the loss of life suffered during the worst day of the Yom Kippur War. This unprecedented travesty will forever be etched in the memories of Israelis who prided themselves in their strong military and start of art intelligence agencies. The grave and abysmal intelligence failure has let down the country.

Located in a conflict-prone arena and surrounded by hostile neighbours, Israel has built strong deterrent mechanisms and a formidable, battle-hardened enemy to resoundingly drive away collaborative and collusive attacks. But the latest attack by HAMAS has demolished Israel’s reputation as the most powerful state in the Middle East. The collective conscious is now gripped by a “feeling of national humiliation, vulnerability and fear provoked by the attack”.

Hours after the attack, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared “Operation Iron Swords” and in a video message announced, “we are at war, and we will win..Our enemy will pay a price the type of which it has never known”.

HAMAS attack, replete with all hallmarks of terror has left behind a trail of barbarity that has no place in the civilised world. This targeted violence has brought back the memories of 9/11 and 26/11, the latter in terms of the mode of attack. The perpetrators of both these attacks had a similar mission- terrorise people, severely disable the national security system, stoke fear, create instability, and chaos, and instill a feeling of vulnerability.

Along with these factors, the dastardly HAMAS attack has vehemently underscored their covenant (preamble)- “Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it”¹ with jihad as their guiding force as stated in Article 15- “the day that enemies usurp part of Moslem land, Jihad becomes the individual duty of every Moslem.”

HAMAS espousal of jihad shouldn’t be a surprise given its genesis as the offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). HAMAS is the short form of Harkat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya, an Islamic Resistance Movement that was formally established in Gaza as MB’s political arm in 1987 following the outbreak of the first Intifada. Initially, it vied to compete with Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ), which violently resisted Israel. Since the 1990s HAMAS military wing Izz al-din al-Qassam Brigades launched aerial attacks on Israel from Gaza.

In line with article 13 of its charter, “initiatives, and so-called peaceful solutions and international conferences, are in contradiction to the principles of the Islamic Resistance Movement, abusing any part of Palestine is abuse directed against part of religion. Nationalism of the Islamic Resistance Movement is part of its religion” HAMAS rejected the Oslo Accords and resorted to violent methods and spearheaded the second intifada from 2000-2005. HAMAS charter ostensibly precludes all alternatives for a peaceful resolution including negotiations, concessions or adjustments. No wonder, HAMAS flouted the ceasefire agreements at will and peace was elusive. The Palestine issue is theological for HAMAS and by extension, Jihad is their duty.

After Israel vacated the Gaza Strip in 2005, HAMAS won a majority of seats in the Palestine Authority (PA) legislature and became the de facto authority of Gaza in 2006. The ousted, incumbent Fatah, the political rival that dominates PLO (Palestine Liberation Organisation) has become the sole power in the West Bank. While Fatah has renounced violence, HAMAS unwavering hostility created a split in the Palestine Authority and turned Gaza into a veritable terror hub.

As opposed to a conventional war where concessions could change drastically change the course and subdue a conflict over a period of time, the hostility inspired and driven by jihadi ideology can have no recourse. For over 75 years, India has been at the receiving end of asymmetric jihadi warfare with Pakistan deploying unconventional methods to destabilise military superior India. State-sponsored terrorism has been Pakistan’s policy towards India. By nurturing, patronising and supporting terrorism, Pakistan has weaponised terrorism and effectively leveraged it against the global superpowers as well. The world woke up to the disasters of terrorism only when this asymmetric warfare reached its shores and claimed innocent lives.

Over a period of time, global conflicts have been transitioning to asymmetric warfare and unconventional strategies to deal with rivals. Emulating Pakistan’s terror template countries started raising militia and coopting radical Islamist terror groups to settle scores with adversaries. Alongside, these countries in cahoots with elitist liberal groups set a stage for propagating the ‘oppression theories’ and ‘victimhood’ narrative to justify any and every kind of brutality committed by these militia and terror outfits. Any discourse that conformed to this liberal opinion was deemed politically correct and that which questioned the incongruencies is remonstrated as bigoted and discriminatory. Now, things have come to such a pass, that condemnation of jihadi terror activities is berated as Islamophobia.

The devasting reports trickling in from Israel of over 40 beheaded babies, of a woman whose womb was torn open causing the slow death of the unborn baby, pictures of children burnt alive, and recovery of over 100 bodies in Kibbutz in Southern Israel by HAMAS is unarguably raising suspicions about their stated objective of liberation of Palestine State. Does this inhuman savagery even fall under the category of retributive actions? This is not a simple attack. This is jihadi Islam.

Whitewashing this barbaric manslaughter, 31 Harvard Student Organisations have held Israel “entirely responsible” for HAMAS brutal attack. In fact, several thousands of pro-Palestine groups have marched out in support of these attacks across major cities in the world and a pro-Palestine group shouted “gas the Jews” staging in front of the Syndey Opera House. Is this barbarity, resistance by any stretch of the imagination? Does suffering an alleged ‘oppression” bestow a free pass to unleash a mass homicide? By drawing a depraved equivalence, the liberals are deliberately mainstreaming the butchery of the terror outfits.

This monstrosity has to be called out. The attack against Israel by HAMAS is a terror attack. Just as the US has adopted a no holds barred approach post 9/11 and launched a global war against terror, Israel has every right to defend itself. Finally, the statement by al-Qassam brigade, “every targeting of our people without warning will be met with the execution of one of the civilian hostages”, reminiscent of ISIS- Jihadi John executions has removed the remotest doubts about the jihadi doctrine of HAMAS.

HAMAS attack on Israel has many lessons for the World. Nations can no longer afford to have a laid-back approach towards jihadi Islam that is slowly finding a base in democratic countries. While these attacks have irreversibly jolted the contemporary geopolitical matrix, PM Modi’s unequivocal support to Israel which has caused some consternation can be traced to India’s zero-tolerance for terror. Though the commentariat intends to read too much into this statement with analysts attributing it to India’s renewed strategic alignment with Israel in the wake of I2U2 and IMEC, India has been at the forefront in leading a war against terror.

Hours after the attack PM Modi tweeted, “deeply shocked by the news of terrorist attacks in Israel. Our thoughts and prayers are with the innocent victims and their families. We stand in solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour”. Indeed, PM Modi’s statement expressing solidarity to Israel today which reads- “people of India stand firmly with Israel in this difficult hour. India strongly and unequivocally condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations”, echoes India’s commitment to extricating terror.

The issue of terrorism has been India’s global agenda and India’s solidarity with Israel which hems with Western countries and “clearly out of step with countries in the global South” (as remarked by an expert) is entirely necessary for India’s national interests. India and Israel face similar threats. PM Modi’s statement is an indirect assertion of India’s right to defend if targeted by any group/entity. These attacks should serve as a wakeup for the World to call the bluff of the perpetual victimhood narrative and the unquestionable jihadi Islam that is now spreading across the World and threatening to destabilise nations.

The 21st-century civilised world has many institutional mechanisms to resolve longstanding disputes and rivalries. It would be inane to seek solutions for them in the 7th-century politico-military enterprise.

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Maldives Election: No Longer ‘India First’; Won’t be ‘India Out’ Either

The victory of the pro-China leaning, Dr. Mohammed Muizzu in the recently concluded Maldivian Presidential Elections has shifted the focus to the geopolitical arena of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The India-China rivalry in the region has become the newest talking point ever since. The Presidential Elections entered run-off phase after the contest between diverse candidates ended with no clear winner. None of the presidential candidates failed to obtain the mandated 50 percent plus one vote mark in the first round.

The second phase of elections held on September 30 threw up a decisive result with the China-leaning Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) candidate and Mayor of Male City, Mohamed Muizzu emerging victorious with 54 percent votes. Muizzu has in fact consolidated his lead in the first round where he managed to garner 46 percent of votes while incumbent pro-India Mohammed Solih obtained 39 percent of votes. Muizzu entered the fray at the eleventh hour as an underdog after the Supreme Court rejected former President Abdulla Yameen’s eligibility for the Presidential election.

Abdulla Yameen, lodged in jail over corruption and embezzlement charges has brought the archipelago to a critical juncture, turning the region into an arena of contest between India and China. Yameen who was elected to power in 2018 has securely lodged Maldives in China’s orbit by joining the BRI. Yameen became president in 2013 after President Nasheed was deposed and forced to resign in 2012. After Nasheed was ousted from power, he came to India and this has created a perception of alleged Indian interference in the domestic affairs of Maldives. India and Maldives always had cordial relations. New Delhi has been the first responder to countries in IOR.

Maldives which lies along strategic sea lines of communication holds immense geographic significance given the burgeoning volumes of trade flows through this region. The Maldivian archipelago spread across the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean is crucial for India in securing its maritime interests. Yameen’s pro-China turn has given a new twist to India-Maldives bilateral ties and turned the Indian Ocean archipelago into a zone of strategic rivalry between India and China.

Yameen’s new shift came at a time when China had intensified its power assertion, especially in the IOR. The unbridled flow of Chinese investments into the archipelago as infrastructure development projects over the period of five years of Yameen’s tenure has plunged Maldives into the abyss of debt which was pegged at $ 3.1 billion as against the country’s GDP of $4.9 billion¹. Yameen unequivocally favoured China and even passed a constitutional amendment allowing foreign ownership of the land. Any foreigner who invests $1 billion can buy land provided 70% of it is reclaimed from the Indian Ocean. He even signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China and endorsed the Maritime Silk Route (MSR).

The high levels of debt and the skewed bilateral trade have fuelled default worries. The precedent of China taking over Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port of 99 years lease for a debt of $ 1.5 billion has exacerbated these concerns. These fears of being drawn into a debt trap have eventually turned contentious Chinese economic influence in Maldives into the single-point agenda of the Presidential Election in 2018. 

In the 2018 election, pro-India Ibrahim Mohammed Solih (Ibu) of the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) emerged victorious and advocated the “India First” policy. Solih rejuvenated bilateral engagement with India and repealed some of the pro-China legislations and sought Indian assistance for infrastructure development, capacity building and community development projects. Besides, strengthening defence cooperation, India and Maldives along with Sri Lanka inaugurated the maiden Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) Focused Operation for enhanced military security in the IOR.  Countries even conducted trilateral maritime exercises to build operational synergy. Under Solih, India-Maldives relations received a new lease for life.

Male’s drift toward India under Solih augmented Quad countries' focus on Maldives to counter Chinese influence in the region. The US opened an embassy in Maldives in September. The UK and Australia have also opened embassies in May 2023. In July 2023, Japan's Foreign Minister visited Male and pledged to promote security cooperation.

India’s steady developmental assistance to the tune of $2 billion, and the training of Maldivian defence and security personnel have lent a new depth to the bilateral ties. India’s increased activity was viewed with suspicion by the opposition. In 2022, former president Yameen steered the “India Out Campaign” which gained traction among the hardline Islamists. Though Solih has attempted to douse this campaign, deeming it as a “threat to national security”, the opposition stoked a narrative that national sovereignty and independence are under threat due to India.

The opposition effectively stoked this “anti-India” rhetoric in the election against incumbent Solih. Anti-incumbency has been the general order of the Maldivian election and after the first round of election itself, it was increasingly evident that Solih is bound to lose. Additionally, the Solih-Nasheed deal turned sour just ahead of the elections. Solih and Nasheed joined hands in 2018 and agreed on a deal to allow for a transfer of power from a Presidential to a Parliamentary format after 18 months of Solih taking office. But this didn’t happen. This rift further widened and in June 2023, both Nasheed and Solih parted ways. Nasheed even formed a new party- Democrats. The party ran a campaign “Anyone, but Ibu (Solih)”.  Interestingly, the candidate backed by Nasheed garnered 7 percent votes in the first round of the election. Together, all these factors dented Solih’s prospects of getting back to power.

After the election, fulfilling his campaign promise, Muizzu requested the transfer of jailed Yameen from prison to house arrest. He has also promised to remove Indian troops from Maldives and balance trade relations. Troops from India are stationed in Maldives include- a team training the Maldivian Navy and a few personnel deployed to take care of the Dornier Aircraft and two medical ambulances gifted by New Delhi. The total strength as opposed to a misleading impression of a large number is just 75. If Maldives intends to send them back, they will lose the lone diplomatic leverage against China.

Given, China’s aggressive push to bolster its presence in IOR, it is incumbent on small countries in the region that they maintain a balance in their relations between both India and China. Additionally, by antagonising India, Maldives will risk its fledging ties with Quad countries and France. Given the geographic realities, India is favoured medical and holiday destination for Maldivians. India has come to the Maldives for immediate rescue- be it Operation Cactus, tsunami, covid pandemic or supplying fresh water.

Having gotten elected on anti-India rhetoric, while Muizzu will be tempted to downgrade ties with India, the potential consequences can include Maldives becoming cannon fodder for Chinese power ambitions. The issue of the debt trap is real and the economic recession of Sri Lanka should warrant Muizzu a former minister in Yameen’s cabinet to strike a balance. While the perception of India as a big brother is played to the hilt by small countries to bash India, New Delhi’s swift help and assistance during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis must be factored in by Muizzu before mulling radical changes to Maldives' foreign policy. India matched Chinese investments in Maldives and expressed its willingness to always help.

With Yameen’s lackey back in power, India is bound to lose “pre-eminent status”. India has also come to terms with the overriding influence of domestic politics on foreign policy especially among the small countries in IOR. It is going to be a daunting challenge but through careful recalibration of diplomatic engagement, New Delhi will rejuvenate ties with the new regime. India has deftly managed to steer forward her relations with Sri Lanka following the return of pro-China Rajapaksas into power and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Reiterating India’s commitment, PM Modi became the first leader to congratulate Muizzu on being elected and stated, “India remains committed to strengthening the time-tested India-Maldives bilateral relationship and enhancing our overall cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region”².

The take-home message for India from the Maldives election is to engage with all political stockholders to mitigate diplomatic shocks and surprises.  Even as the political bigwigs aren’t in favour of a change, the country is gearing for a referendum to amend the Constitution from the existing Presidential to a Parliamentary form. If this referendum is voted through, Nasheed is tipped to become the Prime Minister and head of the government. Moreover, Muizzu and Yameen have a tenuous relationship and it is subject to Muizzu’s deliverance on his promise to get Yameen out of prison. Subject to many ifs and buts, Muizzu may not have the leeway to roll out a entirely different foreign policy.

India has been the major security provider of the region and plays a quintessential role in the region’s stability as well. Above all, given India’s rising global stature, IOR countries can ill afford not to engage with New Delhi.

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