Maldives Election: No Longer ‘India First’; Won’t be ‘India Out’ Either

The victory of the pro-China leaning, Dr. Mohammed Muizzu in the recently concluded Maldivian Presidential Elections has shifted the focus to the geopolitical arena of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The India-China rivalry in the region has become the newest talking point ever since. The Presidential Elections entered run-off phase after the contest between diverse candidates ended with no clear winner. None of the presidential candidates failed to obtain the mandated 50 percent plus one vote mark in the first round.

The second phase of elections held on September 30 threw up a decisive result with the China-leaning Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) candidate and Mayor of Male City, Mohamed Muizzu emerging victorious with 54 percent votes. Muizzu has in fact consolidated his lead in the first round where he managed to garner 46 percent of votes while incumbent pro-India Mohammed Solih obtained 39 percent of votes. Muizzu entered the fray at the eleventh hour as an underdog after the Supreme Court rejected former President Abdulla Yameen’s eligibility for the Presidential election.

Abdulla Yameen, lodged in jail over corruption and embezzlement charges has brought the archipelago to a critical juncture, turning the region into an arena of contest between India and China. Yameen who was elected to power in 2018 has securely lodged Maldives in China’s orbit by joining the BRI. Yameen became president in 2013 after President Nasheed was deposed and forced to resign in 2012. After Nasheed was ousted from power, he came to India and this has created a perception of alleged Indian interference in the domestic affairs of Maldives. India and Maldives always had cordial relations. New Delhi has been the first responder to countries in IOR.

Maldives which lies along strategic sea lines of communication holds immense geographic significance given the burgeoning volumes of trade flows through this region. The Maldivian archipelago spread across the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean is crucial for India in securing its maritime interests. Yameen’s pro-China turn has given a new twist to India-Maldives bilateral ties and turned the Indian Ocean archipelago into a zone of strategic rivalry between India and China.

Yameen’s new shift came at a time when China had intensified its power assertion, especially in the IOR. The unbridled flow of Chinese investments into the archipelago as infrastructure development projects over the period of five years of Yameen’s tenure has plunged Maldives into the abyss of debt which was pegged at $ 3.1 billion as against the country’s GDP of $4.9 billion¹. Yameen unequivocally favoured China and even passed a constitutional amendment allowing foreign ownership of the land. Any foreigner who invests $1 billion can buy land provided 70% of it is reclaimed from the Indian Ocean. He even signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China and endorsed the Maritime Silk Route (MSR).

The high levels of debt and the skewed bilateral trade have fuelled default worries. The precedent of China taking over Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port of 99 years lease for a debt of $ 1.5 billion has exacerbated these concerns. These fears of being drawn into a debt trap have eventually turned contentious Chinese economic influence in Maldives into the single-point agenda of the Presidential Election in 2018. 

In the 2018 election, pro-India Ibrahim Mohammed Solih (Ibu) of the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) emerged victorious and advocated the “India First” policy. Solih rejuvenated bilateral engagement with India and repealed some of the pro-China legislations and sought Indian assistance for infrastructure development, capacity building and community development projects. Besides, strengthening defence cooperation, India and Maldives along with Sri Lanka inaugurated the maiden Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) Focused Operation for enhanced military security in the IOR.  Countries even conducted trilateral maritime exercises to build operational synergy. Under Solih, India-Maldives relations received a new lease for life.

Male’s drift toward India under Solih augmented Quad countries' focus on Maldives to counter Chinese influence in the region. The US opened an embassy in Maldives in September. The UK and Australia have also opened embassies in May 2023. In July 2023, Japan's Foreign Minister visited Male and pledged to promote security cooperation.

India’s steady developmental assistance to the tune of $2 billion, and the training of Maldivian defence and security personnel have lent a new depth to the bilateral ties. India’s increased activity was viewed with suspicion by the opposition. In 2022, former president Yameen steered the “India Out Campaign” which gained traction among the hardline Islamists. Though Solih has attempted to douse this campaign, deeming it as a “threat to national security”, the opposition stoked a narrative that national sovereignty and independence are under threat due to India.

The opposition effectively stoked this “anti-India” rhetoric in the election against incumbent Solih. Anti-incumbency has been the general order of the Maldivian election and after the first round of election itself, it was increasingly evident that Solih is bound to lose. Additionally, the Solih-Nasheed deal turned sour just ahead of the elections. Solih and Nasheed joined hands in 2018 and agreed on a deal to allow for a transfer of power from a Presidential to a Parliamentary format after 18 months of Solih taking office. But this didn’t happen. This rift further widened and in June 2023, both Nasheed and Solih parted ways. Nasheed even formed a new party- Democrats. The party ran a campaign “Anyone, but Ibu (Solih)”.  Interestingly, the candidate backed by Nasheed garnered 7 percent votes in the first round of the election. Together, all these factors dented Solih’s prospects of getting back to power.

After the election, fulfilling his campaign promise, Muizzu requested the transfer of jailed Yameen from prison to house arrest. He has also promised to remove Indian troops from Maldives and balance trade relations. Troops from India are stationed in Maldives include- a team training the Maldivian Navy and a few personnel deployed to take care of the Dornier Aircraft and two medical ambulances gifted by New Delhi. The total strength as opposed to a misleading impression of a large number is just 75. If Maldives intends to send them back, they will lose the lone diplomatic leverage against China.

Given, China’s aggressive push to bolster its presence in IOR, it is incumbent on small countries in the region that they maintain a balance in their relations between both India and China. Additionally, by antagonising India, Maldives will risk its fledging ties with Quad countries and France. Given the geographic realities, India is favoured medical and holiday destination for Maldivians. India has come to the Maldives for immediate rescue- be it Operation Cactus, tsunami, covid pandemic or supplying fresh water.

Having gotten elected on anti-India rhetoric, while Muizzu will be tempted to downgrade ties with India, the potential consequences can include Maldives becoming cannon fodder for Chinese power ambitions. The issue of the debt trap is real and the economic recession of Sri Lanka should warrant Muizzu a former minister in Yameen’s cabinet to strike a balance. While the perception of India as a big brother is played to the hilt by small countries to bash India, New Delhi’s swift help and assistance during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis must be factored in by Muizzu before mulling radical changes to Maldives' foreign policy. India matched Chinese investments in Maldives and expressed its willingness to always help.

With Yameen’s lackey back in power, India is bound to lose “pre-eminent status”. India has also come to terms with the overriding influence of domestic politics on foreign policy especially among the small countries in IOR. It is going to be a daunting challenge but through careful recalibration of diplomatic engagement, New Delhi will rejuvenate ties with the new regime. India has deftly managed to steer forward her relations with Sri Lanka following the return of pro-China Rajapaksas into power and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Reiterating India’s commitment, PM Modi became the first leader to congratulate Muizzu on being elected and stated, “India remains committed to strengthening the time-tested India-Maldives bilateral relationship and enhancing our overall cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region”².

The take-home message for India from the Maldives election is to engage with all political stockholders to mitigate diplomatic shocks and surprises.  Even as the political bigwigs aren’t in favour of a change, the country is gearing for a referendum to amend the Constitution from the existing Presidential to a Parliamentary form. If this referendum is voted through, Nasheed is tipped to become the Prime Minister and head of the government. Moreover, Muizzu and Yameen have a tenuous relationship and it is subject to Muizzu’s deliverance on his promise to get Yameen out of prison. Subject to many ifs and buts, Muizzu may not have the leeway to roll out a entirely different foreign policy.

India has been the major security provider of the region and plays a quintessential role in the region’s stability as well. Above all, given India’s rising global stature, IOR countries can ill afford not to engage with New Delhi.

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