Maldives Tango With Turkey: A Strategic Shift

India-Maldives relations took a new turn with the election of a new President Mohammed Muizzu. After storming into power on the pledge of reversing the “India First” policy of his predecessor Ibrahim Solih, Muizzu has formally placed a request with the Indian government for the withdrawal of troops stationed in Maldives. Muizzu, the Presidential candidate of the Progressive Congress, a coalition between his own People’s National Congress (PNC) and former Abdulla Yameen’s People’s Party of Maldives (PPM), entered the electoral fray after the Supreme Court barred Yameen from the Presidential election.

Voted out of power in 2018, pro-China leader Yameen led the ‘India Out’ campaign which gained momentum after India and Maldives, headed by the Solih government, signed an agreement to construct and maintain a new harbour at Uthuru Thila Falhu naval facility. India extended a $50 million line of credit to Maldives. This harbour, besides enhancing the capabilities of the Maldivian National Defence Forces (MDNF), can improve the maritime surveillance of its vast economic exclusive zones. India has trained over 1000 MDNF forces in the past years and meets 70% of training requirements.

In the run-up to the Presidential elections, Yameen and Muizzu have campaigned that the naval facility being built under the Solih government would eventually be turned into India’s military base. This motivated campaigning is baseless. As revealed by the Maldivian government, 77 Indian personnel are stationed in Maldives of which 50 of them were assigned to maintain the Dhruva helicopters given by India and the rest are engaged in the maintenance of Dornier aircraft. These Indian assets are stationed in the Maldives for medical emergencies, evacuations, and rescue operations, tracking the drug traffickers, and maritime surveillance to assist the MDNF.

Operated by MDNF with the Maldives flag, Indian assets have been used in 976 missions since 2019. Indeed, during the course of the meeting with Minister Kiren Rijiju, India’s representative at the Muizzu swearing-in ceremony, the President acknowledged the contribution of Indian assets in medical evacuations. But having vowed to expel Indian troops citing a threat to sovereignty, Muizzu ordered the removal of Indian assets and ordered the review of close to 100 bilateral agreements signed with India during the Solih regime.

Situated along the east-west shipping lanes that serve as conduit for two-thirds of global trade, Maldives is an important geopolitical hotspot. In the past decade, Maldives has switched sides from India to China and became a vital lynchpin for regional rivalry. Muizzu’s anti-India stance has fueled the speculation of replenishing the Indian troops with Chinese forces. Clarifying his stance, Muizzu in an interview said, “Maldives is too small to be entangled in geopolitical rivalry”. Insisting that he is pro-Maldivian, Muizzu added, “for the Maldives, it is very important that we put our interests first… and also we want to work together with all countries, have a good and friendly relationship, cordial, candid, friendly relationship”¹.

In tune with the advocated “pro-Maldives” position, in a major departure from the customary first visit of elected leaders of the neighbouring countries to India, Muizzu made Turkey his first destination for the state visit. This development has two major dimensions that are hard to ignore- the overt geopolitical dimension and the understated theological connection. Steering the foreign policy away from the India and China tangle, Muizzu is attempting to charter a new course. The wild swings in Maldivian foreign policy with a change in the leadership at the helm are keeping countries guessing.

Beset with the daunting task of shrinking forex reserves and tasked with the immediate challenge of raising $200 million for the budgetary expenses of the remaining 45 days of the year, Muizzu has started negotiations with various countries. To supplement the credit line of $71 million from India scheduled for December, the Budget Committee headed by the Foreign Minister has commenced talks with foreign partners including the Middle Eastern countries².  Indeed, even before his official inauguration Muizzu travelled to different countries and managed to secure $80 million from the UAE for the Male Airport Project.

Enthused by Turkey’s interest and discussions of potential collaboration in tourism, education, air connectivity and reciprocal investments, and responding to the personal invite extended by President Erdogan, Muizzu embarked on his first state visit to Turkey. Turkey and Maldives established diplomatic ties in 1979.  However, the low-key ties received a boost with the visit of Erdogan in his previous stint as Prime Minister in the aftermath of the 2004 Tsunami. Subsequently, ministerial bilateral visits and close coordination with the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Countries) have stabilised the bilateral ties.

In 2021, Maldives and Turkey have agreed to establish a joint economic committee and explored the prospects of visa-free travel³. The talks focussed on religious cooperation and the building of an Islamic Centre on the Hulhumale Island connected by a causeway bridge to Male and the Maldives' main airport, Velana. Muizzu in his talks with the Turkish Finance Minister during the visit called for expediting the construction plans of Velana International Airport (VIA).

Other than the developmental partnership, the principal motivating attribute of Muizzu’s Turkey visit is the religious connection. Reflecting on ties with Turkey, Muizzu underscored that cultural and belief similarities could act as a catalyst in strengthening bilateral relations and expressed his firm commitment to bolstering economic and diplomatic relations with Turkey.

Advocating his Neo-Ottoman dream of establishing an Islamic Caliphate, Erdogan has positioned Turkey as the paragon of Islam. Connected by the umbilical cord of religion, Maldives, the smallest 100% Muslim state intends to secure ties with Turkey. The 1932 Maldivian constitution mandated that Islamic law should be the basis for governance and administration, and the political reforms and new revisions to the constitution in 2008 proclaimed that under article 9 (d) “a non-Muslim may not become a citizen of the Maldives”. Sunni Muslims alone are conferred with land ownership and citizenship.

The longest-serving president of Maldives, Abdul Gayoom, educated at Al-Azhar University Egypt advocated hardline Islam and allowed the infiltration of hardcore Wahhabi ideology into Maldives along with Saudi aid after the 2004 tsunami. The radical Wahhabi influence soon gained ground in the archipelago. Mohammed Nasheed who succeeded Gayoom after the introduction of a multiparty system and democracy won the election forming a broad-based coalition including the Adhalaath Party similar to the Muslim Brotherhood. Adhalaath Party stirred public protests against Nasheed for signing cooperation agreements with Israel on tourism, health and education which eventually led to the resignation. Nasheed who carried an activist image was perceived as pro-West and secular. To prove his credentials, Waheed who became the President after Nasheed’s exit cancelled the GMR group’s international airport building project and hosted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Projecting himself as the defender of Islam, Abdulla Yameen, half-brother of Gayoom, came to power in the 2013 Presidential elections backed by Islamists. The firm grip of religious conservatism on the Island can be assessed from the findings of the 2015 Soufan Group report. As per the report Maldives topped the global per capita table for fighters going to Syria. A record 200 Maldivians of the population of 5,00,000 travelled to Syria. A Maldivian Police report of December 2019 reveals that 423 Maldivians attempted to join the ISIS of which 173 managed to enter the war zone.

There has been a sudden spurt in terror attacks on the island since 2017. Ibrahim Solih who was voted to power in 2018 confronted the Islamists and designated 17 organisations as terror organisations under PTA (Prevention of Terrorism Act 1990)⁴. The ISIS-run Voice of Hind magazine has openly called on Maldivians to join jihad and launch extremist acts in Maldives (and India)⁵. The “India Out” campaign launched by Yameen is an offshoot of the growing intolerance of the Islamists towards the Solih government’s pro-Indian approach, and counter-terror cooperation with India and Western governments.

Muizzu who began his political career with the Adhalaath Party and joined hands with Yameen is now intent on burnishing his pro-Islamist position is distancing Maldives from India. Muizzu was an unlikely Presidential candidate who entered the polls after Yameen was disqualified. Days after his inauguration, the cracks in his coalition, Progressive Party of Maldives is out in the open with the resignation of Yameen who is set to form a new party. Ahead of the vital Parliamentary elections in February 2024 tentatively, maintaining a core support is vital for the newly elected President. His visit to Turkey serves the twin purpose of diversifying ties by reducing dependence on India and wooing the Islamists who are positively inclined to have close ties with Middle Eastern Countries.

From Turkey, Muizzu will be attending the COP28 in UAE to pitch aid for the small islands that are especially vulnerable to climate change. Maldives has been receiving funds from Saudi and UAE since 1978 and 1976 respectively. While UAE’s assistance has been rather muted having promised an ambitious economic revival plan, Muizzu is under pressure to deliver to win handsomely in the upcoming Majilis elections.

Muizzu’s diversification of diplomatic ties aligns with Erdogan’s ambitions of gaining influence in the Indian Ocean Region. Turkey which has consolidated a trilateral alliance with Pakistan and Azerbaijan recently might eagerly look forward to forming a similar alliance against India with Pakistan and Maldives. In this context, the silent role played by Pakistan in bringing Maldives and Turkey must be carefully scrutinised. Notably, Federal Minister of Pakistan Murtaza Solangi represented Pakistan at Muizzu’s swearing-in ceremony. Muizzu accompanied by a high-level delegation signed an agreement on trade and economic cooperation with Turkey. Both countries reaffirmed their belief that permanent peace can be attained through the creation of sovereign Palestine with east Jerusalem as its capital.  

Located 60 nautical miles from Minicoy in Lakshadweep, Maldivian shifting strategic orientation is consequential for India. A stable and secure Maldives is vital for regional security. The lurking presence of an Islamist Turkey and Maldivian slippage into the Islamic orbit will pose a new set of challenges. Holding defence cooperation with India on review, Muizzu is exploring increased cooperation in various areas of counterterrorism, cybersecurity and training for Maldives civil defence⁶ with Turkey.

Maldives has been an important partner of India’s Neighbourhood First Policy. Given the geographical proximity, no country other than India can fill the big shoes of the “first responder” role. With Turkey making inroads into the IOR, New Delhi, besides closely monitoring the developments and engaging with domestic stakeholders, must work with like-minded Gulf partners.

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