India’s Myanmar Calculus: A Strategy Guided by Security Imperatives

 Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing’s five-day visit to India comes at a time when India has determinedly prioritised border security. Last fortnight, Home Minister Amit Shah announced the ‘Smart Border Project’ to make frontiers impenetrable and ordered the demolition of illegal structures within 15 km of the international borders. The BJP Bengal government has put in place the “detect-deport-delete” initiative to curtail the entry of undocumented migrants. Besides security threats, borders have become floodgates for illegal infiltration.

Simmering tensions between the Buddhist and Rohingya Muslims since the 1970s have led to waves of Rohingya infiltration into India, which became more pronounced and severe after the Myanmar junta’s systematic persecution in 2016. The military coup that toppled the elected government in February 2021 displaced 3 million Myanmarese, triggering an endless wave of illegal migration of various ethnicities into India. The rapid crossover through the porous Indo-Myanmar border of 1,643km into adjoining Indian states -Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram has posed a pernicious security situation for India.

The conflagration of the Manipur Crisis in 2023 is a case in point. Recovery of a huge cache of arms and ammunition, drugs and the recent arrest of Ukrainian and American mercenaries in Mizoram along the Myanmar border have unravelled the impact of an unstable Myanmar on India.

In Myanmar, protesting the 2021 military takeover, opposition forces, pro-democracy groups and oppressed ethnic groups together formed the National Unity Government (NUG), the parallel civilian administration and its armed unit, People’s Defence Forces (PDF), carried out the resistance movement against the junta. Allying with the Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs), NUG and PDF are working towards establishing a federal government.

As per the latest reports, these resistance forces are exerting control over 42% of the Myanmar land holding, while the junta-backed government of Myanmar controls mere 21% of the territory, and the remaining land mass remains fiercely contested.

Post-military coup, Myanmar faced boycott, amid growing threats of international sanctions and regional pressure, the junta revoked the emergency order on July 31^st 2025. Citing the 2008 Constitution, wherein elections must be held within six months of the suspension of the emergency, the junta scheduled elections for December 2025 and January 2026. The measure was rather cosmetic. It is an attempt to obtain international legitimacy with no serious intent to facilitate a democratic transition.

The Tatmadaw (Mynmar military) long used election as a tool to project a façade of normalcy while consolidating internal control. With bans on several political parties-  including the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD)- along with detention of political opponents and imposition of emergency across Kachin, Karenni, Karen, Rakhine, Shan, and Chin states, as well as the Sagaing, Mandalay, and Magwe regions, the electoral process amounted little more than a sham exercise. Predictably, the junta-aligned Union Development and Solidarity Party won the elections. The parliament elected General Min Aung Hlaing as the President in April.

The managed election was an attempt to gain international legitimacy. The US, the UK and ASEAN countries openly rejected the election outcome as the process lacked credibility. India reiterated the importance of free and fair elections and adopted a wait-and-watch policy. For a regime struggling to secure international legitimacy, President Hlaing’s first foreign visit to India marks a significant diplomatic gain.

While the pro-democracy camp in Myanmar expressed disappointment over hosting the junta leadership, India has been absolutely clear about its policy. Pushing back against the contrarian opinion, Foreign Minister Vikram Mistri stated, “We have always proceeded on the principle that sustained dialogue is what is important, and what is an imperative for India as a neighbour. And the answer is clearly not disengagement”. He countered, adding, “History has shown that disengagement doesn't give us any results that are better than engagement, and it certainly doesn't produce democratic change if that is what we are interested in. On the other hand, disengagement only produces a vacuum that others go on to fill, then to our detriment. And those others have no interest in democracy, I can assure you about that”.

Myanmar has descended into a fractured geographical and political entity and India’s stakes in its stability remain profound. For decades, secessionist groups from India’s Northeast have found safe sanctuaries across the border. Myanmar has been an indisputable epicentre of the (narcotic) Golden Triangle. The ongoing crisis has intensified this dynamic, with drug cartel operations spilling into India’s Northeast and transforming it into one of the most perilously sensitive frontiers—where insurgency and trafficking converge to threaten national security.

Beyond the security imperative for India, the marked influx of undocumented migrants is altering the demography of the North-Eastern border states. Now, a latest cross-border challenge has emerged- scam centres. Myanmar has become the hotspot of sophisticated e-scamming. Indians have been tricked, and in some cases, forcefully kidnapped to work in these scam centres. These scam centres are no longer isolated criminal enterprises, but advanced offshoots of a transnational global criminal network operating from Myanmar.  These have targeted even Chinese and Thai citizens.

In the recent past, India has repatriated over 2200 Indians working under inhuman conditions in these scam centres. India is working with the junta to rescue trapped Indians. China extended tacit support to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Brotherhood Alliance and Karen Border Guard Force to dismantle these scam centres to rescue its citizens. The collapse of the central governance has turned certain pockets of Myanmar into grey zone areas and safe havens for synthetic drug manufacturing and human trafficking. India closely aligns with the junta on the crackdown on these criminal networks to restore border stability.

Strategically, Myanmar lies at the intersection of India’s Neighbourhood policy, Act East Policy, Indo-Pacific Framework and Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions (MAHASAGAR), and holds immense significance.  Bordering both India and China, Myanmar is an important theatre of regional competition. Political tremors in the country have implications for both countries.

Myanmar is India’s gateway to Southeast Asia. India’s two major connectivity projects- the Kaladan multi-modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, launched several years ago, are now stalled due to the precarious security situation in the country. India needs the junta’s help for their swift completion.

Rare earth minerals represent another area of strategic interest. Myanmar has huge reserves of rare earth elements, which are indispensable for electric vehicles, wind turbines, semiconductors, permanent magnets and defence systems. Although the recent joint statement has no mention of rare earths, India is eager to secure access. China engaged with both the military junta and the ethic armed groups to gain preferential access, with Myanmar supplying nearly half of China’s rare-earth exports.

Kachin region, bordering China, is a global hotspot for heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium. China has monopolised these minerals and imposed a ban on their exports. Seeking alternative sources, India reached out to the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) which controls the region. Beyond Kachin, areas like Shan State, Sagaing Region, Kayah State and the Mogok geological belt hold rich deposits of lithium and other critical minerals. India is exploring avenues of cooperation with the junta to tap into these reserves.

Myanmar President’s visit to India, his first official international trip, has garnered a lot of chatter among strategic circles. Originally scheduled to attend the International Big Cat Alliance (IBCA) summit, deferred now, Hlaing made his first touchdown at Bodhgaya, underscoring the strong cultural and religious connection between the countries. Referred to as Brahma Desha, India has deep civilisational ties with Myanmar. In New Delhi, leaders of both countries reviewed the bilateral ties and reaffirmed to strengthen cooperation in trade, defence and security, border management and cultural exchanges. Hlaing’s visit to the NTPC Energy Technology Research Alliance (NETRA) and Mumbai highlighted his focus on technology, energy and infrastructure cooperation.

China, India and ASEAN are the three major partners of Myanmar. India is Myanmar’s 11^th largest investor. Bilateral trade stands at over $2 billion in favour of Myanmar. Accompanied by a huge business delegation, economic cooperation took front seat. Countries have agreed to enhance the Rupee-Kyat trade settlement mechanism, operationalised in 2024.

Addressing the core aspect of security and border stability, Hlaing assured that Myanmar’s territory will not be used for activities threatening India’s security. PM Modi extended India’s firm support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Myanmar and underscored the need for the restoration of the peace process through a dialogue with all the stakeholders for a united Myanmar.

Wedged between India and China, Myanmar is compelled to maintain cordial relations with both driven by regional connectivity needs and economic dependence, respectively. China, eyeing access to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar, cultivated ties with the military junta and rebel groups, leveraging deep engagement for strategic advantage. In contrast, India’s inconsistent cycles of engagement and disengagement have failed to lend any strategic depth to this relationship, leaving New Delhi at a disadvantage in the regional power play.

In an era of turbulence and power contestation, the strategic calculus of engagement pivots on the imperatives of geopolitical security. Guided by both strategic and economic considerations, India has extended a red carpet to Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing, seeking to mitigate the fallout of Myanmar’s political volatility and safeguard its regional interests.

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Trump’s China Impasse Brings Rubio to India

During his four-day India trip, from May 23-26, US Secretary, Marc Rubio will visit Kolkata, Agra, Jaipur and New Delhi. Ahead of the trip, he described India as a ‘great partner’ and announced that the US is willing to supply as much oil as India wishes to buy. He also added that Venezuela’s oil is also up for grabs. This offer comes in the way of Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodrigues scheduled visit to India the following week. Rubio replayed America’s “Operation Sindoor” style playbook by disclosing the Venezuelan leader’s visit to India even before both sides could officially confirm, stirring a political row in New Delhi.

Rubio will directly land in Kolkata. The US Consulate General is the United States’ second-oldest consulate. The last US Secretary to visit the Kolkata Consulate was Hillary Clinton in 2012. The BJP government has come to power in Bengal, defeating the TMC, which ruled for 15 years. Coincidentally, Rubio’s stopovers in Indian cities are all under the BJP-ruled governments. US South Asia envoy Sergei Gor recently attended Himanshu Biswa Sarma’s swearing-in ceremony. On May 21^st, responding to Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’s tweet, he hinted at a big India-US collaboration in the nuclear sector.

Rubio’s choice of Kolkata touchdown and his visit to the Missionaries of Charity with a dubious record of child trafficking is viewed with disapproval. Read together, with US Congressman Chris Smith’s appeal to the US Secretary ahead of his visit to raise concerns over India’s proposed amendments to the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA), Rubio’s visit is viewed with deep scepticism. FCRA is the umbilical cord connecting the Western churches to the active evangelical ecosystem in India. Rubio’s closed-door prayer at Mother Theresa’s residence strengthened conjectures of the organisation’s close links with the US administration.

Ahead of Rubio’s visit, the US approved a $428 million defence support package for India, which includes military support for Apache attack helicopters and M777A2 ultra-light howitzers. The package would include repairs, field support, spare parts, maintenance systems and advanced training. The US administration tried to showcase this defence package as a defence cooperation agreement. Implicitly, the timing suggests that Trump’s Chinese outreach has hit a dead end. Hence, immediately after Trump’s Beijing visit, the US State Department cleared India’s long-pending defence package to begin a conversation on the Indo-Pacific strategy.

 India is getting to terms with the US administration’s blow hot and blow cold approach. New Delhi now believes that the onus of course correction is on the United States. It is quite evident from the absence of a notable official presence to receive Rubio at Kolkata.

Rubio’s agenda will include defence cooperation, critical minerals, supply chain stability and maritime security. Rubio is scheduled to meet PM Modi on May 23^rd to lay the ground for a meeting with Trump on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in France. He will attend the Quad Foreign Ministers meeting at New Delhi on May 26^th. 

Quad 2.0, revived by Trump 1.0, is now hanging by a thread with trust deficit and uncertainty gnawing at its roots. Trump 1.0 went ballistic about China. But, Indo-Pacific security took a back seat with Trump's transactionalism and adversarial commentary against allies in his second term. The continuity of the Quad Leaders’ Summit stagnated in 2025. Quad now lacks focus. With no deliverables and the US’s self-imposed retreat from Indo-Pacific, the arrangement exists just in name. Mired in unpredictability and captive of Trump’s shifting postures and preoccupation with the Middle East, countries are reluctant to rely on the US partnership in the region. Also, Washington and Dhaka are getting ready to seal the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) (a logistics agreement similar to LEMOA) and the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) to access Bangladesh’s ports in the Bay of Bengal. The US presence will alter India’s primacy in its strategic backyard and heighten New Delhi’s suspicions of strategic encirclement. Until Washington commits to putting its weight and assures allies of its genuine interests in the Indo-Pacific, the Quad resurrected by Trump might wither away under his watch.

What makes Rubio’s visit more interesting is the date of announcement of his visit- May 20^th, just days after Trump’s three-day State visit to China. Trump’s touted big visit to China, the first by a US President in nine years, ended without having a Joint Statement or any concrete agreement. While Trump announced that China agreed to buy $17 billion of US agricultural products and that Beijing had placed an order for 200 Boeing Aircraft, the Chinese side is yet to confirm.

Shockingly, Trump even acknowledged Xi’s observations that the United States was a declining nation, sparking a public debate. He, however, course-corrected with a post on Truth Social. But the damage was already done.

Any respectable head of the country would strongly denounce such statements, especially on foreign soil, coming from a rival country’s President. Consumed by political animosity, Trump chose to gulp down such observations without any resistance. Trump’s validation of Xi’s statement as “100 % correct” is a massive moral victory for China. String of incidents with respect to Trump’s seating, US officials dumping Chinese gifts, and Hegesth stopped from entering the venue without a badge have only exposed China’s deep-seated mistrust and entrenched suspicion. Trump’s Beijing visit has firmly positioned China in the driver’s seat.

Trump’s guarded response- warning Taiwan ‘not to go independent’ and ‘9500 miles argument’ blunting the United States’ ambivalent policy bordered on kowtowing.  It was a huge letdown from 2017, when Trump stated, “We will maintain our strong ties with Taiwan in accordance with our 'One China' policy, including our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide for Taiwan's legitimate defence needs and deter coercion”. In December 2016, he received a congratulatory message from Taipei as President-elect. He even passed the Taiwan Travel Act in 2018, encouraging visits between the US and Taiwan.

Trump’s Nixonian act of Chinese reset is a telling lesson for India. Trump’s jarring pivot to Pakistan, positioning it as a lynchpin for its South Asian policy and beyond and sudden recalibration of ties with China is reminiscent of the 70s. Cultivating India’s adversaries- Pakistan and China, Trump has been utterly unsympathetic to India. Trump’s labelling of India as “hell hole”, “tariff king”, “declining economy” and “currency manipulator”, especially in his second term, has been distasteful.

American hypocrisy of imposing the highest tariffs on India for importing Russian oil but exempting China from the same, while referring to India as a strategic ally, cannot be papered over. The Trump administration’s overt hostility- scrapping of H1 B visas and asking Greencard holders to return to their native country has exposed the structural faultlines of the India-US relationship.

Over the decades, leaders from both countries steadily built the relationship anchored in strategic convergences and democratic values. But Trump’s double standards are widening divergences. Thus far, countries have managed the differences with diplomatic niceties. Trump’s coercive and blunt diplomacy blew up the cover. The veneer is off.

For the better, this moment offered New Delhi an opportunity to recalibrate and prioritise collaboration in strategic areas of convergence. Energy security, defence cooperation, critical minerals, emerging technologies, and supply chain resilience stand out as vital sectors for India-US cooperation.

The old-world order has faded. A new multipolar world is reshaping. India is reorienting its partnership with the US while safeguarding strategic autonomy and preserving an independent foreign policy. Washington must recognise that a civilisational state like India with an immutable strategic consciousness will not bend under pressure or play a second fiddle. Instead, it will thoughtfully reconfigure its diplomatic calculus, placing national interests at the forefront.

 

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The Strategic Logic of India’s Norway Outreach

 PM Modi’s arrival in Oslo marks the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Norway in 43 years.  Received by Prime Minister Jonas Store at the airport, a rousing welcome awaited PM Modi from the Indian Diaspora – Saath Saath, a confluence of Indian and Western Music and Rhythms of India, a vibrant medley of Indian dance traditions.

With an ambitious target of becoming a $7 trillion economy by 2030- the third largest global economy, India is steadily diversifying both its export markets and sources of capital inflows. However, prolonged geopolitical conflicts and their disruption to secure trade and supply chains have intensified India’s challenge of sustaining steady growth. For a rapidly expanding economy like India, with an insatiable demand for resources, an uninterrupted and reliable flow of inputs is indispensable. Beyond resources, India must harness advanced technologies to stay ahead of the curve.  

Nordic countries hold a distinct edge in niche technologies. India’s evolving partnership with Norway is thus vital for its grand vision- one that seeks to make India future-ready and enable its rise as a global leader. Knowledge and technology are the two important pillars of India-Norway ties.

The futuristic development of India essentially has four important aspects- Infrastructure development & urban planning; emerging technologies &AI; green transition and space & deep-sea exploration. To manifest this objective, India signed a Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) with the technologically advanced European Free Trade Association (EFTA) comprising Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein in 2024, which became operational from Oct 1, 2025.

TEPA is about talent, technology and mutual trust. Structured to generate FDI into Indian markets, the deal pledged $100 billion investment over 15 years. The first tranche of $50 billion will be spread across 10 years, and the remaining $50 billion in the next five years. The agreement is expected to generate 10 lakh jobs in 15 years.

Building on TEPA’s momentum, India and Norway elevated their ties to a Green Strategic Partnership.  Reflecting their shared resolve to combat climate change, the partnership will advance an inclusive green transition, blue economy, green shipping and ports. Denmark was the first country with which India signed a Green Strategic Partnership, and now Norway joins the select club.

At the heart of the partnership lies the quest for sustainability. For developing countries, sustainability is the ultimate nirvana- balancing economic growth, poverty eradication and environmental conservation, all at the same time. With limited resources at disposal, sustainable practices are not only desirable but essential to achieving both economic progress and human development. In this context, the adoption of advanced technologies becomes extremely crucial to climb the economic trajectory. An important pillar of sustainability is the Green Economy.

The Green Economy has become Europe’s defining strategy. With an FTA with the EU in place, India is accelerating its transition to mitigate the impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) of the EU. To meet the green energy compliances of Europe, India is also rapidly transforming its core industries- overhauling its manufacturing, energy and regulatory frameworks to align with sustainability practices.

Aligning with these objectives, countries identified three core areas of collaboration- circular economy (resonated with India’s Mission LiFE), energy security and investments in renewable energy. Expanding the ambit of cooperation in critical minerals, emerging technologies, AI and low-emission solutions such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) is also on the agenda.

India is now emerging as a global hub for Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul (MRO), green shipping and maritime services. Ten per cent of Norway’s ships are now built in India. Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers(GRSE) signed an MoU with Norway’s Kongsberg Maritime in June 2025 to co-design India’s first indigenous Polar Research Vessel.

India and Norway are maritime nations, and their Indo-Pacific and Arctic Council policies are closely aligned. Norway has joined India’s Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative (IPOI). Norway supported India’s Arctic Research Station, Himadri at Svalbard. Operational since 2008, Himadri has hosted over 400 scientists while winter deployments commenced in 2023. The IndARC, an underwater observatory in Kongsfjorden, positioned at 192 metres, active since 2014, has been studying the impact of Arctic climate changes on Indian monsoons. ISRO’s satellite tracking and data reception antennas at Svalbard are operational from 2026. They are crucial for Earth Orbit Missions and polar monitoring.  

The rapid melting of Arctic glaciers is reshaping the trade routes and geopolitical dynamics. While this opens new avenues for cooperation- such as logistics expansion, polar research through the Arctic Council- the formalisation of Arctic shipping by Russia and China is set to expand their footprint.  The opening of the Northern Shipping Route (NSR),which reduces travel time by 10 -14 days, raises strategic challenges. For Nordic countries, India’s role becomes vital in balancing Russia’s influence.

Strengthening technological cooperation, countries signed MoUs for joint exploration of outer space, health, and a digital development partnership. Additionally, India has signed MoUs with various Norwegian businesses for consultancy services in tunnel construction, ocean energy, offshore wind energy, geomodelling and innovation.

The Char Dham Railway project is powered by Norwegian tunnelling technology. The key partners in the project are Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, which specialises in managing risks related to landslides and flash floods; Norwegian Consulting Experts for tunnelling and Introsoft solutions for data analysis for tunnel structural integrity.

After the Galwan standoff, China restricted exports of tunnel boring machines to India. New Delhi has planned several highways and tunnels along the strategically important border areas. Centre has also acquired 120 acres of land in the Chicken’s neck corridor to construct underground railways at a depth of 25-40 metres. Norwegian expertise can be hugely beneficial for India in developing border infrastructure.

Other than cooperation in specialised technologies, Norway has been a valued partner for India in food, fuel and fertiliser security.  Norway’s Orkla (parent company of MTR and Eastern Condiments, Kerala) has major investments in the food sector, Equinor supplies LPG and LNG to India, and Yara International provides green ammonia.

The centrepiece of the partnership is Trilateral development cooperation in third countries, especially the Global South nations. Countries plan to support developmental initiatives through India’s digital public infrastructure projects. As of now, India majorly participates in this arrangement with the US, the UK, France, the UAE, Japan and the EU. With this, Norway has positioned itself as an important partner for India.

Norway is a relatively small trading partner of India. The bilateral trade of goods is $1.05 billion, and services account for $ 1 billion. With a cumulative investment of $990 million (FDI rank 33^rd), over 160 Norwegian companies operate in India. However, the Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) has consistently risen in the past decade (roughly $30 billion) to become the 7^th largest investor in 2025.

Bilateral trade is definitely not of specific interest to India. Norway has one of the largest sovereign wealth funds worth $2 trillion, which prioritises investments in clean energy. Having set a target of 500 GW of clean energy and 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030, India is keen to unlock the sovereign wealth fund for clean energy investments.

Addressing the delegates at the India-Norway Business and Research Summit, PM Modi briefed about the next-generation reforms -labour, tax and governance in India to improve ease of doing business and encouraged companies to invest in India. India’s large markets, massive talent pool for innovation, and geopolitical alignment make it a valuable partner for Nordic countries keen on scaling up green technologies and unlocking investments. By conferring the highest civilian award on PM Modi, the Norwegian government has honoured his efforts to strengthen this win-win partnership.

During his two-day visit, PM Modi participated in the third India-Nordic summit hosted by PM Stokes. The Nordics are a group of five small countries. Over 700 Nordic companies operate in India, and each of the Nordic countries has sector-specific strengths – Norway in energy transition, maritime & shipping; Sweden in defence, digital tech and fintech innovation, Denmark in renewable energy, robotics, biotech; Finland in gaming, telecommunication and Iceland in geothermal energy. The Nordic zone is the global powerhouse for innovation.

In the last decade, Nordic countries' investment in India increased by 200%. PM Modi is intensifying engagement with the Nordic countries to equip our industrial ecosystem with emerging and critical technologies.

PM Modi’s visit to Norway was successful in terms of outcomes. However, it became the subject of critical commentary due to hitjob of journalist from an obscure Norwegian media agency. Her open rebuke of India’s Freedom of Press ranking and heckling has exposed the colonial kit in action. Ahead of PM Modi’s arrival in Oslo, a Norwegian publication carried out a cartoon depicting him as a snake charmer. Titled- ‘A sneaky and slightly annoying man’, reeking of European imagery- uncivilised, primitive and exotic, the racial animus was explicitly evident.

Notorious for its moral posturing, Norway, punches above its weight and exerts ‘outsized’ influence in international discourse. It frequently champions democracy, freedom of speech and human rights while sitting in moral judgement of other nations despite its own ignominious record. Indigenous Sami communities have suffered systemic discrimination and human rights violations at home. Under the guise of promoting democracy, Norway has destabilised regimes in Libya, Ethiopia, Syria and Colombia. Financially powering the vast NGO networks in South Asia through the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) and its embassies orchestrated attempts to undermine the regional sovereignty. Norwegian envoy’s secret meeting with Prashant Kishore ahead of Bihar election deepened scepticism about its political agenda. India has often resented Norway’s statements on domestic issues and asserted

For all its grandstanding, Norway chose to normalise relations with China after Beijing banned salmon imports after the Norwegian Nobel Peace Committee awarded the Nobel prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo in 2010. To stabilise ties, the Norwegian Royal Couple on their China visit in 2018 feigned ignorance about the internment of 1.5 million Uighurs. Norwegian activism and its interventionist foreign policy have been the source of doctrinal dissonance in India-Norway ties.

Prolonged geopolitical conflicts, strained trans‑Atlantic ties, and great‑power rivalries are driving nations toward interest‑based partnerships. To hedge against strategic dependence, European countries are seeking flexible, multipolar alignments. Striking a balance between ideological disagreements and economic goals, despite Norway’s scandalous activism, PM Modi is reaching out to Nordic countries to strengthen India’s energy security and environmental resilience.  Leveraging their expertise in green technology and niche innovations, India intends to accelerate its transition toward sustainability while continuing to assert its sovereignty and pluralism.

 

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Powering Energy Resilience, India–UAE Partnership Redefines Strategic Horizons

 PM Modi made his first stop at Abu Dhabi in his five-nation visit on Friday. Symbolising close ties, F-16 jets escorted Air India One upon entering the UAE’s airspace. PM Modi was warmly received by President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the tarmac and extended a ceremonial welcome. PM Modi’s eighth visit to the UAE in twelve years, coming at the thick of the ongoing West Asia conflict, signals solidarity and strong friendship with the UAE.

PM Modi is the first foreign leader to visit the UAE since the conflict began. The UAE faced over 2800 drone and missile attacks, more than any other country. PM Modi strongly condemned the attacks on the UAE and stated, “the manner in which the UAE has been targeted is not acceptable in any form”. The statement, coming at a time when New Delhi is hosting the BRICS Foreign Ministers meeting attended by the Iranian Minister, is doubly significant. He also reiterated the need for unimpeded transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Both leaders called for the cessation of attacks on shipping and on mariners.

Prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and aerial attacks on the oil infrastructure have caused trade disruptions. The tremors of the conflict eventually changed the political contours of the region, with the rise of the Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan axis to coordinate diplomatic response.  

In a bold move to prioritise national interests, the UAE exited OPEC effective from May 1st. With the restrictive quotas off the table, the post-OPEC scenario has opened new avenues for partnerships. The UAE is set to expand production, infrastructure investment and diversification of energy sources. To bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE is fast-tracking the West-East pipeline to double its export capacity by 2027. The existing Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, built in 2012, currently carries 1.5-1.8 million barrels per day.

Currently, the UAE is India’s fourth-largest supplier of crude oil and largest supplier of LPG. It accounts for 11 per cent of India’s crude and 40 per cent of LPG. India is also the UAE’s largest buyer of LNG, totalling 4.5 metric tonnes per annum. The UAE is the first and only country to participate in India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve programme. In 2018, Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company (ADNOC) leased the underground cavern of Mangaluru SPR to store 5 million barrels of crude, which is roughly one day’s worth of consumption.

PM Modi’s short visit of three hours, coming at a time when the world is bracing for shipping disruptions, supply chain vulnerabilities and regional conflicts, has been highly substantial.  With the international rule-based order reduced to mere political rhetoric, global conflicts have shifted from being exceptions to becoming the norm. The global commons are becoming increasingly destabilised, disrupting the maritime routes and energy choke points.

The militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz and its subsequent closure have triggered a cascading effect. Forced rerouting has increased transport charges.  India imports more than 85% of its energy sources, making it vulnerable to the strategic weaponisation of maritime chokepoints by nations. Energy cooperation has been the primary pillar of the India-UAE partnership.

Moving away from the buyer-seller relationship, in a landmark arrangement, ADNOC has announced to store 30 million barrels of crude in facilities at Visakhapatnam and Odisha’s Chandikol. The UAE will retain the ownership, and India will be allowed to use it during emergencies. Reciprocally, storage facilities at Port Fujairah will now be part of India’s strategic petroleum reserve.

 The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has heightened India’s vulnerability, particularly in its LPG and LNG supplies. To minimise risk and mitigate shortages, India is exploring long-term purchase and storage of LPG and LNG.

President MBZ received PM Modi, saying, “welcome to your second home”, reflecting an exceptional trust and confidence. Since PM Modi’s first visit to the UAE in 2015, leaders have personally led the relationship by investing diplomatic capital, time and resources to give the relationship a strategic direction and institutional depth. In 2017, leaders elevated the relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and with the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2022, bilateral trade reached a new milestone, surpassing $100 billion. The UAE is now India’s seventh-largest investor. What began as reliable economic partnerships is now overshadowed by looming war clouds, pushing nations to prioritise security.

The Iran War has deepened the schisms among the Gulf countries, underscored by the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC. It has shattered the guarantee of Washington’s security commitment for hosting its military facilities and as a vital deterrent against regional adversaries. Taking a cue from Saudi Arabia’s SMDA, with Pakistan symbolic of the unreliability of the US architectural framework for Gulf countries, President MBZ, on his short visit to New Delhi in January, signed a Letter of Intent (LoI) on a strategic defence partnership.  Iran’s full-blown assault on Gulf Countries, especially on the UAE, has been the force behind the conclusion of a framework for a strategic defence partnership with India. This marks the beginning of a new strategic security alignment with India.

Besides defence industrial collaboration, countries will now jointly work on cyber defence, intelligence sharing, interoperability, maritime security and special operations, including training and exercises. Other than security, Abu Dhabi now finds a greater convergence with India on several strategic aspects, including the core objectives of the “We the UAE 2031” vision. The broad pillars of the vision are economic stability, technological modernisation, strategic diversification and maritime security. India’s vibrant markets, opportunities for growth and its role as the regional security provider make it an indispensable partner for the UAE’s economic diversification pursuits.

India’s non-interventionalist approach, expanding economy, technological ecosystem and focus on manufacturing make it a natural partner for the UAE. To shore up marine logistics and ship-repairing infrastructure, countries will now cooperate to set up a ship-repair cluster at Vadinar with an underlying framework to train and employ a skilled maritime workforce.

In a boost to technological modernisation, countries agreed to collaborate to set up an 8 Exaflop Super Computing Cluster as part of the AI Mission India. Additionally, the UAE pledged $5 billion investment in the infrastructure and banking sector.

Steadily exploring newer alignments, the UAE has ratcheted up cooperation with Israel after the 2020 Abraham Accords. Exploring new partnerships, the UAE has become an active part of the I2U2 and aligned its maritime ambitions with the IMEC. Israel is another vital partner of IMEC. Amid the unrelenting Iranian attacks, the UAE has deployed Israeli surveillance and defence systems to protect its strategic assets from Iranian strikes. At a time when a new Middle East Quad is shaping up, PM Modi’s visit to the UAE has shifted attention to the trifecta (India-Israel-UAE) on the horizon.

Prolonged global conflicts have ushered the world into an era of volatility and fragmentation. Seeking stability, nations are recalibrating alliances and strategic partners to bolster economic resilience and energy security. Amid these uncertainties, India’s relationship with the UAE has emerged as a promising anchor. Increasingly, nations are now favouring strategic flexibility over rigid geopolitical blocs. As India and the UAE deepen their alignment, they are restructuring the geopolitical order towards a multipolar world.

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2.       

Where State Governance Meets National Security

 Pregnant with new hopes and anticipation of change, West Bengal is all set to enter a new political phase in its long journey. Suvendu Adhikari is now officially sworn in as the new chief minister after the BJP registered a landslide victory. Having actively engaged with the people of the state, the national party must have charted the priorities of governance.

Instructively, as the new Chief Minister hits the ground running, Mamata Banerjee’s resignation drama and reactions from across the border should ring bells. Alleging conspiracy, Mamata rejected the verdict of a free and fair election and refused to resign, defying the conventional practice. The unprecedented move, perhaps the first of its kind in Indian politics, sparked intense discussions. More than the recalcitrance of Banerjee, the strong backing from Bangladesh’s Jamaat leader, Mohammad Nurul Huda, has raised more eyebrows. He urged Banerjee to openly declare a war against New Delhi by announcing West Bengal’s independence, assuring her of the support of 170 million Muslims.

Addressing a large gathering, BNP leader Altab Hossain Molla threatened Suvendu Adhikari, “If Indian Muslims unite, they can rip India into pieces”. Bangladesh National Citizens Party MP and Chief Whip of Opposition, Nahid Islam, alleged that Muslims in Bengal were facing persecution and deprived of voting rights. A viral video of Hefazat-e-Islam leader, Maulana Fakhru, surfaced on social media warned that Bengali Muslims in West Bengal may start a Civil War since the BJP has won the elections.

The firm backing of radical elements in Bangladesh has brought into focus the Rs 750 Crore money laundering investigation reports in the Saradha Chit Scam. Saradha Group Chairman, Sudipto Sen, told ED that the money has been diverted to the Middle East and Bangladesh through Jamaat leaders. Sen stated that TMC Rajya Sabha leader, Ahmad Hassan Imran, introduced him to Jamaat leaders.

Hassan is the founding member and head of the Bengal Chapter of SIMI (Students Islamic Movement of India), the banned terrorist organisation and served as the Indian correspondent of the Bangladesh newspaper, Naya Diganta, a mouthpiece of Jamaat-e-Islami. He is also believed to be involved in 2013 Canning violence, where 100 Hindu homes were set on fire. Currently, he is the Chairman of the West Bengal Minorities Commission.

According to a ToI report, the proceeds of the Saradha scam parked in the Islami Bank of Bangladesh have made their way to the Jamaat outfit legally. The bank’s customer base included proscribed political organisations and individuals. Reportedly, these funds were distributed to them as “Corporate Zakaat”.  The bank founded by Jamaat-e-Islami with links to Jamaatul Mujahedin Bangladesh (JMB) was under the scanner of the US agencies. Acting on the intelligence reports, the bank was hauled by the then-Bangladesh government for disbursing funds to terrorist agencies.

After over 13 years of investigation, the case reached a stalemate, accountability is yet to be established, and victims still await justice.

In 2014 op-Ed in The Daily Star, Brig Gen Shahedul Anam Khan of Bangladesh raised concerns that funds from Sharada scam were diverted by the TMC to the Jamaat, which was fuelling violent protests against the ruling Awami League to topple the government. He highlighted that the TMC-Jamaat nexus revolved around consolidating vote banks in West Bengal. Noting that Bangladeshi intelligence agencies had shared information with their Indian counterparts, Khan called for a thorough investigation into these allegations.

When the Awami League intensified its crackdown on Jamaat for their brutal killing of Hindus, minorities, secular bloggers and gay rights activists, most of them crossed over to India. They sought refuge in West Bengal. In India, Mamata refused permission to the investigation agencies to enter the state or interrogate the Islamists. The majority of the Jamaat cadre who escaped to India included Mullahs and Maulvis at Madrassas. Regularly increasing their perks, Mamata helped them to settle in the State to ensure the entire Muslim population votes for TMC en bloc. To appease the Muslims in the state, TMC shielded the Jamaat. In fact, Dhaka had started to believe that their counter terrorism operation would be ineffective unless the West Bengal government stopped being a safe haven for them.

JMB had houses in Bengal. This was exposed by the Khagragarh blast in October 2014. The blast occurred in a house in Burdwan where the JMB module was making bombs. NIA also recovered burnt pamphlets featuring Ayman Al-Zawahiri at the blast site. Investigations have found that the bombs made were similar to those used by the Indian Mujahideen (IM). After finding shelter in Bengal, JMB set up training centres in Madrassas of Malda and Burdwan. JMB, an Islamist Terrorist organisation, was founded by Abdur Rehman in 1998 to establish an Islamic State in Bangladesh under the jurisdiction of Sharia Laws.

The cadres arrested by the NIA were found to have close links with JMB. Mamata repeatedly scuttled all attempts by the investigation agencies to nab the Islamist radicals, turning the state into a fertile breeding ground for extremist ideology. Sheikh Hasina’s regime cracked a whip on these terror elements in Bangladesh and helped India in keeping insurgency movements under check in the North East.

After Hasina’s ouster, the Jamaat cadres brought out the genie of Greater Bangladesh and fed this concept to the protesting students, who quickly lapped it up. Under the anti-India regime of Yunus, adding fire to fuel, snapping ties with New Delhi, Bangladesh turned to Pakistan. With the state of West Bengal under the firm control of Islamist-friendly Mamata, Islamabad kick-started its Eastern agenda of destabilising India.

The humiliating defeat of Mamata has thus been a rude shock to Pakistan and its puppet Jamaat network. Jamaat had been hand in glove with Pakistan even during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War. BJP’s sweeping victory has come as a huge jolt to Pakistan’s eastern plans. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s visit to Dhaka on May 8^th, with a nine-member delegation (comprising ISI officials), has added more teeth to speculations of ISI’s plan of targeting India from its Eastern Front. While social media is abuzz with rumours that Ansar-Al Islam, a Bangladeshi affiliate of Al-Qaeda in Bangladesh, is planning attacks in West Bengal, a national alert has also been announced in Delhi.

During the fifteen years of TMC rule, Bengal has become a citadel of syndicate groups, Islamist outfits and illegal infiltrators. Having found a safe refuge in India, the Bangladeshi terrorist networks quickly mushroomed under the friendly TMC regime. This drastically changed the demography of border regions, constricting the freedom of the Hindu community and forcing them to flee their homes. Given the ease with which Jamaat operates without any restraints across two countries through porous borders, they have become the most favoured operatives of Pakistan’s ISI.

Indo-Bangladesh border regions have become bastions of Jamaat. Their sweeping victories, especially in regions abutting the border in the recent Bangladesh poll, validate the same. The provocative remarks of the Jamaat leaders and the fundamental elements in Bangladesh are an attempt to stoke communal tensions in India.

Reacting to the BJP’s win in Bengal, the Bangladesh Foreign Minister, Khalilur Rahman, said that Bangladesh will take action if “push-in” incidents occur. A day later, echoing the same sentiment, Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed hoped that people would not be pushed into their country. Unlike the Awami League, which took Jamaat for task, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is ambivalent in its approach. From 2001 to 2006, the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami coalition ran the government. After Hasina’s ouster, BNP distanced itself from Jamaat to position itself as a moderate, liberal and secular party. BNP has been infamous for its sympathetic approach towards religious extremism and patronising terrorism.

Bangladesh, under the BNP, while signalling an intent to renew ties with India that dived south under Yunus’s regime, is also expanding cooperation with Pakistan. On his recent Beijing visit, Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman sought China’s help in the Teesta River Front Restoration. In the past, the cooperation with Bangladesh on certain aspects hit a roadblock due to the obstinate TMC government in West Bengal. With the BJP government at the helm in the State and Centre, Bangladesh can no longer accuse India of being non-cooperative. The Indian government has an unequivocal zero-tolerance policy towards terrorism. So, the onus is on Bangladesh to crack down on the terror elements emanating from its territory.

Unlike in the past, provocative statements that preceded acts of terror will now be reciprocated by massive retaliation by a New India, defined by its “ghar mein ghus ke marenge” resolve. Alongside, the state must crack down on syndicates collaborating with the Jamaat network by fast-tracking investigations into decade-old money laundering scam and dismantling the terror safe havens.

BJP’s victory in West Bengal carries a dual challenge- while aggressively expediting developmental projects, it must tenaciously repel the terror attacks and guard the nation’s sovereign borders.

 

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2026 Assembly Elections: The Great Political Reset

 India seems to be in perpetual election mode. With the proposal “One Nation One Election”, to simultaneously hold Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, stifled by the “obstructionist politics” of the opposition, perennial elections have become the unwritten norm of Indian democracy. In the recently concluded elections in four states- Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, Assam and the Union territory of Puducherry- nearly 150 million people exercised their franchise, making it a mini referendum.  The enormity of the election outcomes is no less than a watershed moment for India’s political landscape.

Three sitting Chief Ministers have lost the elections and been voted out of power- Pinarayi Vijayan of Kerala, Stalin of Tamil Nadu and Mamata Banerjee of West Bengal faced bitter defeats. In all three states, incumbents were ousted. For the first time since India’s independence, coinciding with the ‘naxal-free’ India objective, not a single state has a Communist Party in power. The elimination of Left Wing Extremism or Naxalism and the concomitant loss of political mileage of Leftist political parties marks a transformative shift in India’s internal security. Developmental chokeholds placed by this ideology caused stagnation. The declining stranglehold of this utopian philosophy and its rejection can help integrate these regions into India’s growth engine.

Over several decades, exclusivism, language and regional chauvinism of the Dravidian ideology have bred the North-South divide, threatening India’s unity. Fuelling secessionist tendencies and invoking a sub-nationalist pride, ‘Indian First’ identity was effectively trampled with illusory “Aryan-Dravidian” perspectives. The strong regional identity fostered by the Dravidian movement weakened the national fabric. It effectively roiled the Centre-State relationship as mandated by Article 1 of the Indian Constitution (a quasi-federal structure) and put them on a collision course. Rejection of the Dravidian Parties will mark a significant shift from the 60-year duopoly of these parties over Tamil Nadu. The unexpected stellar victory of a two-year-old political startup, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor turned politician Joseph Vijay, dismantled the entrenched regional powers. Absent prior political experience, the state of Tamil Nadu, led by Joseph Vijay, will charter new waters.

TVK’s tsunami-like performance, now a case study for psephologists given his contrarian style of politics, is being hailed as a Gen Z revolution.  Analysts note that the fatigued and disillusioned young Tamil voters chose to transform the leadership through the ballot box rather than violent protests to overhaul the political architecture of the state. Their pragmatic choice underscores their faith in the Indian election process and transparency. However, political observers are cautious of the state’s trajectory under the stewardship of an inexperienced politician. Tamil Nadu, long known for its decisive mandate, faces a hung assembly kind of scenario -ushering in a bitter-sweet political journey for the state. Beyond the promise of change, Vijay’s foremost and daunting challenge lies in fulfilling the election pledges, which would entail a staggering financial burden of ₹1.7 lakh crore on the state exchequer, reeling under debt. His first decision to seek Congress party support, an ally of DMK whose misgovernance and corruption Vijay constantly attacked, is already raising eyebrows.

Puducherry voted the incumbent back to power, strengthening continuity and confidence in the leadership.

Securing people’s mandate with an increased majority for the record third time, the BJP has entrenched itself as the most popular party in the state. The landslide victory is a testimony to the overwhelming acceptance of the BJP’s style of governance. With focus on infrastructure development, connectivity and attracting investments, the BJP over the past decade has laid a firm foundation for the long-term development of the state. The thumping victory would strengthen its resolve to free the state from the menace of illegal migrants and protect the indigenous land and cultural identity from the demographic invasion. Assam is the vital connecting link to India’s north-eastern states of Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh.

Illegal infiltration from Myanmar and Bangladesh into the North-Eastern states through the porous border is now a major security and socio-political threat to India. Massive influxes, besides altering demography, are a strain on Indian resources, as administrative and governance machinery have to be stretched to curtail the drug trafficking and regrouping of insurgency groups. Though illegals have been regularly pushed back, they are reentering through the porous borders, presenting a massive security challenge. With some of them permanently gaining ground in West Bengal, run by a complacent and obtrusive government, posing formidable threats to India’s security.

The constant riff-raff with the Central government and brazen indifference towards security threats by the illegals is turning West Bengal into a chink in the country’s security shield. An intransigent and non-cooperative approach, even towards issues like border fencing, has turned the State into a weak link both in terms of security and development. With the entire state machinery and administration collectively tasked with appeasing one community for an assured political term, development has taken a back seat. At the time of independence, the frontier state of West Bengal had been the crown jewel of the country, with a thriving industrial, business and entrepreneurial ecosystem. Political violence, a harrowing law and order situation, has forced industries and businesses to flee the state.

Further, a stubborn reluctance to implement government schemes and prioritise the developmental agenda has pushed the state into economic stagnation. Economic decline has not been sudden; decades of leftist rule and fifteen years of TMC rule have turned the third-largest economy of the country into one of the bottom four. The crushing defeat of TMC and the landslide victory of BJP offer a fresh hope of revival for the state. For BJP, toppling the bastions of development-agnostic TMC is not mere political expediency but a strategic imperative dictated by pressing security threats.

West Bengal serves as the gateway to India’s North East, making its industrial growth and logistical efficiency pivotal for the region’s economic integration and connectivity. The absence of a coherent development vision from the Bengal government is not just stalling the state’s progress- it is impeding the progress of the entire North East. To reduce regional growth disparities, the government is setting up growth corridors and “anchor cities”. However, growth in Eastern India still lags due to the long-term decline of Kolkata as an industrial hub. The roadblocks for growth must be removed to reduce regional disparities and reach the goal of a $7 trillion economy. The Vision of Viksit Bharat 2047 is intrinsically linked to the economic and social transformation of Bengal.

Intense geopolitical conflicts, especially in the Middle East have caused acute energy security vulnerabilities. To remain buoyant amid these uncertainties, nations must be economically resilient. Building a stable economy with consistent growth is no longer a choice, but an undeniable necessity.

The resurgence of Bharat as a developed nation is incomplete without cultural revival. Thirty-four years of Leftist rule that considers “religion is the opium of the masses” and fifteen years of heightened minority appeasement and oppression of Sanatanis have sapped out the cultural vibrancy of the land, which has been an epitome of Indian culture and spirituality. To raise culturally empowered citizenry, it is important to create conditions for cultural revival. This can’t be possible when the indigenous population is treated as second-class citizens for cultivating vote banks.

The unceremonious ouster of Sheikh Hasina and her exodus to India have revealed the larger international agenda at play. The pursuit of a “Christian State” along the Indo-Bangladesh border is not a wild allegation. Conflicts in Manipur since 2023, foreign mercenaries' operations along the Indo-Myanmar border and the surging presence of Islamic fundamentalists abutting West Bengal border areas in Bangladesh are not sporadic events. It is part of a grand plan of Indian adversaries to destabilise and economically weaken India and gain entry to the Bay of Bengal.

Indeed, the cryptic link to this entire master plan becomes more revealing with the Leader of the Opposition’s visit to Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the thick of Bengal elections. While political parties are at loggerheads in the electoral battle, Rahul Gandhi raises objections to the “Great Nicobar Holistic Development Project”, terming it as the “gravest crime against nature”. Geostrategically, India stands to expand its maritime influence and fortify its economic and national security with this project. It would be a game-changer.

India is at a multi-front war from both within and outside. To secure the country from both domestic and foreign threats, stable, sturdy and nationalistic governments must be at the helm. BJP’s aggressive electoral fight is not a mere political contest but a means to realise the lofty national ambition. Mission Bengal is not a political agenda but an economic, social, cultural and national security inevitability.  With the power of the vote, Indians are building the nation by entrusting governance with prudence. Ushering in a silent renaissance democratically, Indians have once again rewritten their own developmental script.

Iconically, what was once branded a slogan of defiance and suppressed under threat of legal action, the unapologetic chants of ‘Jai Shri Ram’ now reverberate across Bengal, symbolising freedom. Beneath the exuberant bursts of Joy of election ecstasy in the City of Joy, lay buried the long-silenced stories of repression.

 

Beyond Oil Quota: Decoding UAE’s Exit from OPEC

More than two months into the Iran-US war, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Iran has tightened its grip on this strategic asset. Handling over 20% of global energy supplies, restrictions on the Strait have deepened the global economic crisis. Mediation attempts have come to an abrupt halt. The writing on the wall, as per columnists, is NACHO- ‘Not A Chance Hormuz Opens’. Fully aware of the looming squeeze on oil exports, Gulf nations are steadily ratcheting up plans to mitigate the fallout of Hormuz closure.

At a time when Arab countries met in Riyadh to discuss the repercussions of Iran's war, the UAE announced its exit from OPEC on April 28, effective from May 1^st. This decision comes at a time when the world is facing a severe oil crunch. The timing of the announcement hasn’t come as a real shocker, given the UAE’s disappointment over a lack of solidarity and support from Gulf Countries.

Since Feb 28, Iran has launched over 6400 drone attacks targeting US bases and other critical assets in the region. However, the UAE faced disproportionate attacks from Iran compared to its primary adversary, Israel- 2800 drone and missile strikes as opposed to 930 attacks on Israel over a similar period.  Even among the Gulf countries, the UAE faced the highest number of strikes, followed by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. Needless to say, while the UAE and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords, the UAE has proactively strengthened ties with Israel since then.

UAE’s announcement to exit OPEC has turned out to be the endgame for its simmering differences with Saudi Arabia.  Saudi Arabia and the UAE added more heft to the oil cartel, given their spare production capacity. The UAE is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC with a capacity of 4.85 million barrels per day. But its quota is capped at 3.2 million barrels. For long, the UAE faced losses from the underutilisation of vast production capacity. Disassociating from OPEC, the UAE can increase production at will. OPEC operates on quotas to regulate oil production and, concomitantly, global oil prices. President Trump has often accused OPEC of manipulating the global oil prices by pegging the production levels for a profitable production margin.

Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, seeking higher prices, to fuel its Vision 2030, enforced voluntary production cuts through quotas.  By withdrawing from OPEC, the UAE will be free to increase its production. With the lowest production costs globally, the UAE can capitalise on its capacities to significantly scale up the output.  Freed from the OPEC+ quota system, the UAE can advance its ambitious economic diversification agenda. Harnessing oil revenues, the UAE can accelerate its transition to green energy and renewables and realise the long-term goal of moving away from an oil-dependent economy status.

Using oil revenues, the UAE has built world-class maritime infrastructure, established a premier financial services hub and positioned itself as an economic powerhouse of the region. Under the garb of attacking US bases, Iran targeted airports, energy facilities, data centres, banks and digital infrastructure, significantly impacting its economy. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has critically paralysed Abu Dhabi’s oil exports. As a result, the UAE could export ~1.5 million barrels from Port Fujairah through its Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), far less than its capacity of 5 million barrels per day. The UAE was hardest hit by the Iran War.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia’s export volumes remained stable. Barring some interruptions, the oil trade remained uninterrupted as Saudi Arabia rerouted supplies through the East-West Pipeline, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. By April 12, Riyadh restored its full export capacity of 7 million barrels per day. With the fate of the Strait of Hormuz in limbo, the UAE initiated financial backstop talks with the US. Beyond the economic logjam, the Iran War has deepened fissures between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Both countries have been supporting the warring factions in Yemen, Sudan and Somalia. The dissonance on the Yemen front between Arab states became apparent after Saudi fighter jets struck Mukkalla seaport on the Red Sea, targeting the transfer of weapons from the UAE to the Southern Transition Council (STC), a dissident group. Saudi Arabia accused the UAE of arming the STC, which carried out military operations along its southern border.  Deeming it a national security threat and a ‘red line’, with immediate effect, Saudi-allied Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) issued a decree suspending the joint defence agreement with the UAE, and ordered withdrawal of forces within 24 hours.

UAE’s exit from OPEC has many facets; while an obvious weakening of the oil cartel is imminent, there are many layers to it. Over the past decade, the UAE has been slowly evolving an economic architecture to expand its influence. Punching above its weight, the UAE is expanding its presence in the Red Sea, Horn of Africa, Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa. Actively strengthening its control over Red Sea maritime choke points, especially the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the UAE is quietly expanding its logistical empire. The Red Sea is a vital artery for the UAE’s oil exports. To protect its global trade flows and insulate supply chains from regional volatilities, the UAE is consistently diversifying its influence through economic investments in these regions. The UAE’s quiet presence in these strategically important maritime ports along the corridor has put it at odds with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey.

Extending its presence in the South Red Sea region, the UAE invested in the Port Berbera of Somaliland to connect it to Ethiopian trade routes and create a maritime corridor by integrating inland Africa with global shipping. Israel’s recognition of Somaliland eventually helped the UAE to access the airstrip of Port Berbera. This enabled the UAE to deepen its strategic depth in the Red Sea region, creating a Berbera axis, where the UAE-Israel-Ethiopia are pitted against Saudi Arabia-Egypt-Turkey-Somalia. Contesting Emirati influence in the Red Sea region, Saudi Arabia has entered Eritrea. Aligning with the US, Saudi Arabia is monitoring trade flows through the Red Sea region.

Alongside, the UAE is also building an Eastern Mediterranean corridor with Greece, Cyprus, Israel and India. This logistical corridor is a subset of the India Middle East Europe Maritime Economic Corridor (IMEC) steered by India. The IMEC, launched at the 2023 G20 Summit in New Delhi, suffered a hit after the October 7^th attacks.  While the overland routes passing through the Middle East are effectively frozen, India and France are actively pushing for IMEC’s maritime logistics.

As a part of its regional strategy of controlling Mediterranean route access, the UAE supports Khalifa Haftar’s forces. UAE’s patronage of Haftar has two purposes. Aside from pushing arms and weapons delivery through Haftar to RSF forces in Sudan, the UAE is gaining control in North Africa to establish a strategic logistics and military corridor. Saudi Arabia also engages with Haftar through Pakistan. To establish its leverage over Haftar, Saudi Arabia has recently facilitated a $4 billion arms deal between Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) and Pakistan. But the deal is jeopardised with Saudi Arabia reportedly “revisiting its strategy”.

Another region of Saudi-Emirati contestation has been Sudan. Saudi Arabia has been providing financial and logistical support to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) while the UAE backs the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The brutal conflict between SAF and RSF for the past three years has led to the worst humanitarian crisis. Amid the Iran War, Western countries have forced Saudi Arabia to stall the $1.5 billion arms sale through Pakistan. Officially claiming to support humanitarian efforts in Sudan, Riyadh is actively engaging with SAF through Pakistan. With Saudi Arabia pulling the plug on its $1.5 billion financial support under Western pressure, Pakistan has officially called off its defence deal with Sudan.

The rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia has been brewing for some time now. But the final straw on the camel’s back was Pakistan’s mediation of US-Iran talks. The UAE believed that Pakistan was unlikely to be neutral. Pakistan, which has been a pernicious defence logistics channel for Saudi, eventually became its strategic defence partner with the signing of Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) in September 2025. The UAE perceived a conflict of interest due to the SDMA pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. As relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE began to fester, Abu Dhabi felt sidelined as Riyadh aligned with Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt as part of Iran-US war negotiations.

Historically a recipient of Emirati financial support, Pakistan’s role as the pernicious handmaiden of Saudi has riled it. In fact, Pakistan’s “meek response” to Iranian attacks, its less beholden approach to Abu Dhabi, sharp rhetoric against Israel and India might have influenced the UAE to call for urgent repayment of the $3.5 billion loan. Emirati’s strategic framework, anchored by the 2020 Abraham Accord, has been further strengthened by Israel’s deployment of cutting-edge defence systems during the Iran conflict.

The ongoing war has positioned Israel as the strategic defence partner of the UAE. This new strategic realignment signalled Emirati prioritisation of the UAE-Israel-India axis to bolster its economic influence and maritime presence in the region and beyond. Aggressively pursuing “We the UAE 2031”, a 10-year roadmap launched in 2022, the UAE is signing Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPA)s to build a knowledge-based economy. In 2022, the UAE joined India, Israel and the United States in the I2U2 group and the IMEC initiative that resonated with its core goals of increasing non-oil exports, entering the top 10 league of countries in human development, health, education and safety.  To realise its vision, the UAE needs an uninterrupted flow of oil revenues.

Stifling Saudi Arabia’s institutional control of OPEC, Hormuz blockade has curtailed its oil exports and dwindled the UAE’s dollar reserves. Exercising its sovereign right, the UAE has left OPEC. Even in the past, showcasing disagreements- Angola, Qatar, Indonesia and Ecuador exited OPEC. Gabon exited in 1995 and rejoined in 2016. The UAE has followed the same precedent. Headquartered in Geneva initially and later shifted to Vienna, OPEC was founded by 12 nations in 1960 in Baghdad.  Comprising Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Venezuela, OPEC emerged as a major bloc in 1973 when its Arab members imposed an oil embargo against nations supporting Israel. 

Around that period, OPEC controlled nearly half of the world’s oil. But its influence began to wane after the US and others started producing oil. Joining hands with ten non-OPEC members- Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Oman, Mexico, Russia, South Sudan and Sudan to stabilise global oil supply, OPEC formed OPEC+ in 2016. Figuratively, OPEC+ controlled nearly 59% of global oil production. But its heft began to gradually erode due to competition from other countries, defections, green energy transitions and internal dissent. The USA and Guyana, two major oil-producing countries, operate outside this alliance.

While the Strait of Hormuz blockade has marginalised OPEC’s leverage, the UAE’s exit would severely reduce its market influence. Unlike the exit of other countries, the UAE’s departure brought to the fore dissensions and faultlines among Gulf Countries. OPEC symbolised Gulf cohesiveness and its consensus decision-making helped it to weaponise oil.

The OPEC+ formed in 2016 in response to America’s shale production, helped Russia to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and provided stable trade channels. In his first term, Trump had been highly critical of OPEC+ and accused it of artificially inflating prices. UAE’s withdrawal will weaken the group and its monopoly. Now the collective consensus will be overpowered by differences over Iran and Yemen within the group. The UAE has been the safety valve of the group. Abu Dhabi’s move is a major foreign policy victory for Trump.

The UAE plans to establish Murban crude as the global benchmark to compete with WTI and Brent and has invested $122 billion to raise production capacity. Now, it wants to freely trade oil and allow market forces to determine production volume. By exiting OPEC, the UAE is now staking its strategic autonomy to position itself as the major regional maritime power. The ongoing Iran War has revealed deeper rifts in the Middle East region for maritime influence between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

UAE’s exit from OPEC will augur well for India’s efforts to tame the impact of rising oil prices on domestic inflation. The geographical proximity will reduce the shipping expenses and time. With premiums on ships transiting Hormuz surging, oil shipments from the UAE’s Port Fujairah can directly reach India. A weaker OPEC can cause global oil price volatility. The world must brace for cycles of unstable oil prices. OPEC traditionally trades in dollars. Given the UAE’s willingness to diversify from dollars, its strategic move could weaken the petrodollar system. India and China, the major oil consumers, can now settle oil trade in national currencies. India-UAE ties reached a new high with the CEPA and a steady increase in trading volumes. UAE’s move to maximise the oil output will bode well for India’s energy security.

Unrelenting geopolitical turbulences are reshaping the world order, compelling nations to prioritise national interests. The Hormuz blockade has pivotally underscored the centrality of maritime influence for economic clout. Nations are increasingly embracing “Port Diplomacy”- building an extensive logistics network to control maritime chokepoints that serve both as leverage and investments to enhance economic heft. UAE’s OPEC exit has revealed its strategic vision to expand its influence beyond borders and emerge as a regional maritime power.

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Why Pakistan for US-Iran ceasefire talks?

The much-awaited US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad failed to accomplish a ceasefire. Touted to play the role of mediation, the process was roiled in controversies and elicited sharp rebuke even before the negotiations could begin in Pakistan. The conditional ceasefire, which was announced on April 8^th, showed signs of tottering just a couple of hours later as Gulf countries- Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE reported strikes. Soon, it was confirmed that Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Gulf countries in response to an attack on the Lavan Island refinery. Before these escalations could simmer down, Israel launched one of the largest attacks on Lebanon, killing 240 people.

An enraged Tehran warned of a ceasefire collapse over Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Israel defended its action, stating that Lebanon is beyond the ambit of the ceasefire. Washington backed Israel’s position. The confusion over Lebanon soon put Islamabad in a spot. Though PM Shahbaz Sharif sought the refuge of his tweet as an alibi, indicating the ceasefire applied to EVERYTHING, soon parties accused Islamabad of sharing different versions of ceasefire agreements. The ‘double game’ and accusations complicated the diplomatic process.

Even before accusations could subside, revelling in the new global role, Pakistan Defence Minister Khwaja Sharif called on Muslim countries to unite against enemies- India and Israel. In a chest-thumping exuberance, Khwaja Sharif tweeted, “Innocent citizens are being killed by Israel, first Gaza, then Iran and now Lebanon, bloodletting continues unabated. I hope and pray that the people who created this cancerous state on Palestinian land, to get rid of (sic) European Jews burn in hell”. This triggered an immediate backlash from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Casting serious doubts on Pakistan’s role as mediator, the Israeli envoy to India emphasised that it could be a mere facilitator. Pakistan officially doesn’t recognise Israel, a major stakeholder in the US-Iran peace talks. Ironically, the US delegation, comprising Jews, travelled to Islamabad, whose “annihilation” the Pakistani defence minister has called for. Pakistan is anything but a neutral arbiter.

Trump’s choice of Pakistan for reaching out to Iran has resonated with his penchant for tinpot despots like Field Marshal Asim Marshal. Pakistan has always been a useful vassal for the United States. Customarily, Nordic countries have been preferred mediators for their neutral and objective stand. Strategic talks and mediation warrant subtle diplomacy and exchange of notes beyond the prying eyes of the media. Mediation is a craft. Tempered with secrecy, neutrality and commitment, talks yield the outcomes when it is low profile. On the contrary, Pakistan turned this into an event to brandish its global image. The Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) and sections of the media even requested a Nobel Peace Prize for PM Sharif and Field Marshal Munir.

Given Trump’s fraught relations with European countries and with transatlantic relations teetering on the edge, Washington relied on Middle East allies for the job. Initially, Washington coopted regional allies-Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to push for de-escalation. But Pakistan emerged as the primary mediator.

Pakistan shares a 900 km-long border with Iran, has close ties with China, and a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia. China, seemingly neutral, is calling the shots. China has been the largest customer of Iran’s discounted oil. The Strait of Hormuz blockade has severely impacted its energy supplies. China is Iran's most important political partner. The signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) runs through the Iranian territory.

Over the years, China has invested significant effort in building strategic ties with GCC countries as well. Hence, any direct involvement in talks would jeopardise its partnership with the region. China’s trade with the UAE and Saudi Arabia is $100 billion, against $41 billion with Iran. On March 31^st, China and Pakistan proposed the five-point initiative to restore stability in West Asia. Around the same time Beijing facilitated talks between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. China has been silently making its moves. Wielding decisive influence, without being at the table, China has propped up Pakistan’s mediation role.  China remains the largest buyer of Iranian oil while continuing its trade with the Gulf countries. China is also supplying sodium percholate for Iranian missiles.

Pakistan has been flexing its muscles ever since President Trump pronounced it as a communication channel with Iran. Trump’s choice of Pakistan hardly raised any flak despite its unvarnished history as a state sponsor of terror. It wasn’t surprising given a marked upswing in the US-Pakistan relations in Trump’s second term. Needless to say, the point of interest has been commercial. Trump’s family and Witkoff’s offspring sealed a crypto investment agreement with Pakistan in April 2025.

Subsequently, Trump announced a critical mineral exploration deal with Pakistan. Islamabad has also offered to the United States to use the Pasni harbour. A sequence of events has critically changed the trajectory of US-Pakistan ties, which has suffered a blowback over Washington’s involvement in the ouster of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.  President Trump’s nagging rant and incoherent claims of India losing jets during Operation Sindoor, and his claims of trade leverage in halting India’s offensive to favour Pakistan, have irked India. Pandering to Trump, Pakistan has recommended the Nobel Peace Prize for Trump for his non-existent “decisive diplomatic intervention”. Later, Trump invited the Field Marshal for a luncheon at White House. This unusual privilege, usually reserved for civilian leadership, drew sharp reactions.

Warming up to Trump, despite domestic backlash, Pakistan accepted the invitation to join the Board of Peace for Gaza’s post-war reconstruction. At the inauguration, PM Sharif offered glowing praise to Trump. Trump’s unprecedented overtures and the sudden momentum in U.S.–Pakistan ties are rooted in Islamabad’s aggressive lobbying.  Reportedly, Pakistan hired 13 lobbying firms to secure direct access to Trump’s office. Prominent lobbying firms included Javelin Advisors, co-founded by Trump’s former bodyguard, Keith Schiller, and ex-Trump Organisation executive George Sorial, and Seiden Law LLP. Pakistan has shelled out $5 million in 2025 to lobby the current administration. The returns on investment for Pakistan have been rather quick. Brushing aside India’s fierce objections, the IMF approved a $1 billion loan to Pakistan at the height of Operation Sindoor.

Coinciding with the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace, the US government signed an agreement to renovate and redevelop the Hotel Roosevelt in New York, owned by Pakistan’s flagship carrier, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), in February 2026. In December 2025, under pressure from the IMF, cash-trapped Pakistan was forced to privatise the airlines. To retain the prime property in New York frequented by Pakistani leaders, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff negotiated a deal between Pakistan and the US General Services Administration (GSA). Steve Witkoff’s son, Zachary Witkoff, is a partner in the cryptocurrency company, World Liberty Financial (WLF). The other key partners of the WLF deal signed in April 2025: Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr., and Zachary Folkman.

Amenable to both Washington and Beijing, Pakistan has positioned itself as the most convenient pawn for two powers with direct stakes in West Asia. Given its subservience to its masters, Pakistan can at best be a courier. What is striking, however, is the glaring hypocrisy of Washington, which justifies its attacks on Iran while embracing Islamabad. Pakistan embodies nearly every trait the U.S. condemns in Tehran: both are designated state sponsors of terrorism, pursue destabilising nuclear programs (in fact, Pakistan is a Muslim-nuclear power), empower non-state actors, and crack down on domestic subjects. Tehran has the vilest form of surveillance, the enforcement of hijab and an iron-fisted crackdown on dissent. Islamabad embodies one of the most intolerant strains of religious fanaticism, where religious minorities- Hindus, Christians, Buddhists and even some sects of Muslims, like Ahmadiyas and Shias, face persecution.

Diplomatic values have sunk to rock bottom under the present US dispensation. Entrusting the task of de-escalating the war that has disrupted global supply chains to a state synonymous with terrorism is nothing short of diplomatic bankruptcy. Pakistan’s neutrality is already under scrutiny. Islamabad has activated the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SDMA) by deploying 13,000 troops and fighter jets to Riyadh. Additionally, Islamabad has its own axes to grind with Iran on the Balochistan insurgency issue. The 21-hour-long trilateral talks in Islamabad have failed, and both delegations left Pakistan immediately. While JD Vance announced that talks have stalled, Iran noted, “diplomacy never comes to an end”. As of now, no date, location, or format for talks has been set.

The choice of mediator matters. If nations are serious about resolving this conflict in the long term, prudence must guide the selection of facilitators. History offers a sobering reminder: the 1993 Islamabad Agreement, brokered by Pakistan, barely lasted for a few weeks. Signed on March 9, bombardment resumed on May 15.

 

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