PM Modi made his first stop at Abu Dhabi in his five-nation visit on Friday. Symbolising close ties, F-16 jets escorted Air India One upon entering the UAE’s airspace. PM Modi was warmly received by President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the tarmac and extended a ceremonial welcome. PM Modi’s eighth visit to the UAE in twelve years, coming at the thick of the ongoing West Asia conflict, signals solidarity and strong friendship with the UAE.
PM Modi is the first foreign leader to visit the UAE
since the conflict began. The UAE faced over 2800 drone and missile attacks,
more than any other country. PM Modi strongly condemned the attacks on the UAE
and stated, “the manner in which the UAE has been targeted is not acceptable in
any form”. The statement, coming at a time when New Delhi is hosting the BRICS
Foreign Ministers meeting attended by the Iranian Minister, is doubly
significant. He also
reiterated the need for unimpeded transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Both leaders called for the cessation of attacks on shipping and on mariners.
Prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and aerial
attacks on the oil infrastructure have caused trade disruptions. The tremors of
the conflict eventually changed the political contours of the region, with the
rise of the Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan axis to coordinate
diplomatic response.
In a bold move to prioritise national interests, the
UAE exited OPEC effective from May 1st. With the restrictive quotas off the
table, the post-OPEC scenario has opened new avenues for partnerships. The UAE
is set to expand production, infrastructure investment and diversification of
energy sources. To bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE is fast-tracking the
West-East pipeline to double its export capacity by 2027. The existing
Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, built in 2012, currently carries 1.5-1.8 million
barrels per day.
Currently, the UAE is India’s fourth-largest supplier
of crude oil and largest supplier of LPG. It accounts for 11 per cent of
India’s crude and 40 per cent of LPG. India is also the UAE’s largest buyer of
LNG, totalling 4.5 metric tonnes per annum. The UAE is the first and only
country to participate in India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve programme. In
2018, Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company (ADNOC) leased the underground cavern of
Mangaluru SPR to store 5 million barrels of crude, which is roughly one day’s
worth of consumption.
PM Modi’s short visit of three hours, coming at a time
when the world is bracing for shipping disruptions, supply chain
vulnerabilities and regional conflicts, has been highly substantial. With the international rule-based order
reduced to mere political rhetoric, global
conflicts have shifted from being exceptions to becoming the norm. The global commons are becoming increasingly destabilised,
disrupting the maritime routes and energy choke points.
The militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz and its
subsequent closure have triggered a cascading effect. Forced rerouting has
increased transport charges. India
imports more than 85% of its energy sources, making it vulnerable to the
strategic weaponisation of maritime chokepoints by nations. Energy cooperation
has been the primary pillar of the India-UAE partnership.
Moving away from the buyer-seller relationship, in a landmark
arrangement, ADNOC has announced to store 30 million barrels of crude in
facilities at Visakhapatnam and Odisha’s Chandikol. The UAE will retain the
ownership, and India will be allowed to use it during emergencies.
Reciprocally, storage facilities at Port Fujairah will now be part of India’s
strategic petroleum reserve.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz
has heightened India’s vulnerability, particularly in its LPG and LNG supplies.
To minimise risk and mitigate shortages, India is exploring long-term
purchase and storage of LPG and LNG.
President MBZ received PM Modi, saying, “welcome to
your second home”, reflecting an exceptional trust and confidence. Since PM
Modi’s first visit to the UAE in 2015, leaders have personally led the
relationship by investing diplomatic capital, time and resources to give the
relationship a strategic direction and institutional depth. In 2017, leaders
elevated the relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and with
the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2022,
bilateral trade reached a new milestone, surpassing $100 billion. The UAE is now
India’s seventh-largest investor. What
began as reliable economic partnerships is now overshadowed by looming war
clouds, pushing nations to prioritise security.
The Iran War has deepened the schisms among the Gulf
countries, underscored by the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC. It has shattered the
guarantee of Washington’s security commitment for hosting its military
facilities and as a vital deterrent against regional adversaries. Taking a cue
from Saudi Arabia’s SMDA, with Pakistan symbolic of the unreliability of the US
architectural framework for Gulf countries, President MBZ, on his short visit
to New Delhi in January, signed a Letter of Intent (LoI) on a strategic defence
partnership. Iran’s full-blown assault
on Gulf Countries, especially on the UAE, has been the force behind the
conclusion of a framework for a strategic defence partnership with India. This
marks the beginning of a new strategic security alignment with India.
Besides defence industrial collaboration, countries
will now jointly work on cyber defence, intelligence sharing, interoperability,
maritime security and special operations, including training and exercises.
Other than security, Abu Dhabi now finds a greater convergence with India on
several strategic aspects, including the core objectives of the “We the UAE
2031” vision. The broad pillars of the vision are economic stability,
technological modernisation, strategic diversification and maritime security. India’s
vibrant markets, opportunities for growth and its role as the regional security
provider make it an indispensable partner for the UAE’s economic
diversification pursuits.
India’s non-interventionalist approach, expanding
economy, technological ecosystem and focus on manufacturing make it a natural
partner for the UAE. To shore up marine logistics and ship-repairing infrastructure,
countries will now cooperate to set up a ship-repair cluster at Vadinar with an
underlying framework to train and employ a skilled maritime workforce.
In a boost to technological modernisation, countries
agreed to collaborate to set up an 8 Exaflop Super Computing Cluster as part of
the AI Mission India. Additionally, the UAE pledged $5 billion investment in the
infrastructure and banking sector.
Steadily
exploring newer alignments, the UAE has ratcheted up cooperation with Israel
after the 2020 Abraham Accords. Exploring new partnerships, the UAE has become
an active part of the I2U2 and aligned its maritime ambitions with the IMEC.
Israel is another vital partner of IMEC. Amid the unrelenting Iranian attacks,
the UAE has deployed Israeli surveillance and defence systems to protect its
strategic assets from Iranian strikes. At a time when a new Middle East Quad is
shaping up, PM Modi’s visit to the UAE has shifted attention to the trifecta
(India-Israel-UAE) on the horizon.
Prolonged global
conflicts have ushered the world into an era of volatility and fragmentation.
Seeking stability, nations are recalibrating alliances and strategic partners
to bolster economic resilience and energy security. Amid these uncertainties,
India’s relationship with the UAE has emerged as a promising anchor.
Increasingly, nations are now favouring strategic flexibility over rigid
geopolitical blocs. As India and the UAE deepen their alignment, they are
restructuring the geopolitical order towards a multipolar world.
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