The much-awaited US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad failed to accomplish a ceasefire. Touted to play the role of mediation, the process was roiled in controversies and elicited sharp rebuke even before the negotiations could begin in Pakistan. The conditional ceasefire, which was announced on April 8th, showed signs of tottering just a couple of hours later as Gulf countries- Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE reported strikes. Soon, it was confirmed that Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Gulf countries in response to an attack on the Lavan Island refinery. Before these escalations could simmer down, Israel launched one of the largest attacks on Lebanon, killing 240 people.
An enraged Tehran warned of a ceasefire collapse over
Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Israel defended its action, stating that Lebanon is
beyond the ambit of the ceasefire. Washington backed Israel’s position. The
confusion over Lebanon soon put Islamabad in a spot. Though PM Shahbaz Sharif
sought the refuge of his tweet as an alibi, indicating the ceasefire applied to
EVERYTHING, soon parties accused Islamabad of sharing different versions of
ceasefire agreements. The ‘double game’ and accusations complicated the
diplomatic process.
Even before accusations could subside, revelling in the
new global role, Pakistan Defence Minister Khwaja Sharif called on Muslim
countries to unite against enemies- India and Israel. In a chest-thumping
exuberance, Khwaja Sharif tweeted, “Innocent citizens are being killed by
Israel, first Gaza, then Iran and now Lebanon, bloodletting continues unabated.
I hope and pray that the people who created this cancerous state on Palestinian
land, to get rid of (sic) European Jews burn in hell”. This triggered an
immediate backlash from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Casting serious doubts on Pakistan’s role as mediator,
the Israeli envoy to India emphasised that it could be a mere facilitator.
Pakistan officially doesn’t recognise Israel, a major stakeholder in the
US-Iran peace talks. Ironically, the US delegation, comprising Jews, travelled
to Islamabad, whose “annihilation” the Pakistani defence minister has called
for. Pakistan is anything but a neutral arbiter.
Trump’s choice of Pakistan for reaching out to Iran
has resonated with his penchant for
tinpot despots like Field Marshal Asim Marshal. Pakistan has always been a
useful vassal for the United States. Customarily, Nordic countries have been
preferred mediators for their neutral and objective stand. Strategic talks and
mediation warrant subtle diplomacy and exchange of notes beyond the prying eyes
of the media. Mediation is a craft. Tempered with secrecy, neutrality and
commitment, talks yield the outcomes when it is low profile. On the contrary,
Pakistan turned this into an event to brandish its global image. The Karachi
Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) and sections of the media even
requested a Nobel Peace Prize for PM Sharif and Field Marshal Munir.
Given Trump’s
fraught relations with European countries and with transatlantic relations
teetering on the edge, Washington relied on Middle East allies for the job.
Initially, Washington coopted regional allies-Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and
Pakistan to push for de-escalation. But Pakistan emerged as the primary
mediator.
Pakistan
shares a 900 km-long border with Iran, has close ties with China, and a defence
agreement with Saudi Arabia. China, seemingly neutral, is calling the shots.
China has been the largest customer of Iran’s discounted oil. The Strait of
Hormuz blockade has severely impacted its energy supplies. China is Iran's most
important political partner. The signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) runs
through the Iranian territory.
Over the
years, China has invested significant effort in building strategic ties with
GCC countries as well. Hence, any direct involvement in talks would jeopardise
its partnership with the region. China’s trade with the UAE and Saudi Arabia is
$100 billion, against $41 billion with Iran. On March 31st, China
and Pakistan proposed the five-point initiative to restore stability in West
Asia. Around the same time Beijing facilitated talks between Pakistan and the
Afghan Taliban. China has been silently making its moves. Wielding decisive
influence, without being at the table, China has propped up Pakistan’s
mediation role. China remains the
largest buyer of Iranian oil while continuing its trade with the Gulf countries.
China is also supplying sodium percholate for Iranian missiles.
Pakistan has been flexing its muscles ever since
President Trump pronounced it as a communication channel with Iran. Trump’s
choice of Pakistan hardly raised any flak despite its unvarnished history as a
state sponsor of terror. It wasn’t surprising given a marked upswing in the
US-Pakistan relations in Trump’s second term. Needless to say, the point of
interest has been commercial. Trump’s family and Witkoff’s offspring sealed a
crypto investment agreement with Pakistan in April 2025.
Subsequently, Trump announced a critical mineral
exploration deal with Pakistan. Islamabad has also offered to the United States
to use the Pasni harbour. A sequence of events has critically changed the
trajectory of US-Pakistan ties, which has suffered a blowback over Washington’s
involvement in the ouster of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. President Trump’s nagging rant and incoherent
claims of India losing jets during Operation Sindoor, and his claims of trade
leverage in halting India’s offensive to favour Pakistan, have irked India. Pandering
to Trump, Pakistan has recommended the Nobel Peace Prize for Trump for his
non-existent “decisive diplomatic intervention”. Later, Trump invited the Field
Marshal for a luncheon at White House. This unusual privilege, usually reserved
for civilian leadership, drew sharp reactions.
Warming up to Trump, despite domestic backlash,
Pakistan accepted the invitation to join the Board of Peace for Gaza’s post-war
reconstruction. At the inauguration, PM Sharif offered glowing praise to Trump.
Trump’s unprecedented
overtures and the sudden momentum in U.S.–Pakistan ties are rooted in
Islamabad’s aggressive lobbying. Reportedly, Pakistan hired 13 lobbying firms to secure direct access
to Trump’s office. Prominent lobbying firms included Javelin Advisors,
co-founded by Trump’s former bodyguard, Keith Schiller, and ex-Trump
Organisation executive George Sorial, and Seiden Law LLP. Pakistan has shelled
out $5 million in 2025 to lobby the current administration. The returns on
investment for Pakistan have been rather quick. Brushing aside India’s fierce
objections, the IMF approved a $1 billion loan to Pakistan at the height of
Operation Sindoor.
Coinciding with the inaugural meeting of the Board of
Peace, the US government signed an agreement to renovate and redevelop the Hotel
Roosevelt in New York, owned by Pakistan’s flagship carrier, Pakistan
International Airlines (PIA), in February 2026. In December 2025, under
pressure from the IMF, cash-trapped Pakistan was forced to privatise the
airlines. To retain the prime property in New York frequented by Pakistani
leaders, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff negotiated a deal between Pakistan
and the US General Services Administration (GSA). Steve Witkoff’s son, Zachary
Witkoff, is a partner in the cryptocurrency company, World Liberty Financial
(WLF). The other key partners of the WLF deal signed in April 2025: Eric Trump,
Donald Trump Jr., and Zachary Folkman.
Amenable to
both Washington and Beijing, Pakistan has positioned itself as the most
convenient pawn for two powers with direct stakes in West Asia. Given its
subservience to its masters, Pakistan can at best be a courier. What is
striking, however, is the glaring hypocrisy of Washington, which justifies its
attacks on Iran while embracing Islamabad. Pakistan embodies nearly every trait
the U.S. condemns in Tehran: both are designated state sponsors of terrorism,
pursue destabilising nuclear programs (in fact, Pakistan is a Muslim-nuclear
power), empower non-state actors, and crack down on domestic subjects. Tehran
has the vilest form of surveillance, the enforcement of hijab and an
iron-fisted crackdown on dissent. Islamabad embodies one of the most intolerant
strains of religious fanaticism, where religious minorities- Hindus,
Christians, Buddhists and even some sects of Muslims, like Ahmadiyas and Shias,
face persecution.
Diplomatic
values have sunk to rock bottom under the present US dispensation. Entrusting
the task of de-escalating the war that has disrupted global supply chains to a
state synonymous with terrorism is nothing short of diplomatic bankruptcy. Pakistan’s
neutrality is already under scrutiny. Islamabad has activated the Strategic
Mutual Defence Agreement (SDMA) by deploying 13,000 troops and fighter jets to
Riyadh. Additionally, Islamabad has its own axes to grind with Iran on the
Balochistan insurgency issue. The 21-hour-long trilateral talks in Islamabad
have failed, and both delegations left Pakistan immediately. While JD Vance
announced that talks have stalled, Iran noted, “diplomacy never comes to an
end”. As of now, no date, location, or format for talks has been set.
The choice of
mediator matters. If nations are serious about resolving this conflict in the
long term, prudence must guide the selection of facilitators. History offers a
sobering reminder: the 1993 Islamabad Agreement, brokered by Pakistan, barely
lasted for a few weeks. Signed on March 9, bombardment resumed on May 15.
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