India Sets the Agenda at Johannesburg BRICS Summit

The phenomenal accomplishment of becoming the fourth country to soft land on the moon and the first one to reach the Lunar South Pole has inadvertently placed India in a pole position at the Johannesburg BRICS summit. The stupendous success veritably positioned India as an emerging space power. Witnessing the live broadcast of the soft landing virtually from South Africa, PM Modi hailing the efforts of ISRO scientists said, “This success belongs to all of humanity, not just India”.  

Resonating with our human-centric approach of “One Earth, One Family, One Future”, the theme of India’s G20 Presidency post Chandrayaan-3 success, PM Modi called for a broadening of space cooperation at the BRICS summit. He suggested a working proposal on the BRICS satellite constellation and the creation of the BRICS Space Exploration Consortium to cooperate in space research and weather monitoring.

Just years into his Prime Ministership, deploying India’s space prowess under the “neighbourhood first policy”, Modi unleashed space diplomacy to foster SAARC regional cooperation. India successfully launched a communication satellite South Asia Satellite (SAS) in 2017 for the benefit of South Asian countries. With Pakistan choosing to opt-out, Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Afghanistan continue to draw benefits in terms of telemedicine, tele-education, and television broadcasting opportunities.

India’s mutually beneficial development model has been thus vividly different. Pursuing a proactive diplomacy, building bridges with an emphasis on developmental forays, India is steadily gaining the trust of nations as a responsible power.

After setting the agenda at SCO and successively delivering as the Chair of SCO, India is now credibly laying down a framework for cooperation at BRICS. Both SCO and BRICS are China-centric organisations but India is steering the course by shifting the focus to address the challenges faced by the member nations.

Steered by Russia and China BRICS comprising of emerging nations, took off post-global recession of 2008. By steadily accumulating economic and military capital, China has dominated BRICS. With capacities on par with the US in various domains, China which has graduated from being a developing economy to an emerging superpower status has now veritably set its eyes on increasing its global heft.

BRICS expansion strategy is part of Beijing's larger global ambitions to build a lobby against the West But the changing global environment, India’s steady rise, and the Chinese economy's slide into deflation have turned the tide. Decelerating growth, rising youth unemployment, real estate bubble, and flattening export curve accompanied by attendant demographic decline have virtually brought the Chinese economy to a halt.

President Xi’s no-show at the BRICS Business Forum Leaders session has lent weight to growing pessimism over China’s economy. Vociferous in flaunting its achievements, Xi’s absence at the session to defend the Chinese economy and its support for emerging nations at the crucial opening session raised many speculations.

On the contrary exuding confidence, PM Modi spoke of India’s steady economic progress. Poised to become the growth engine of the world and inching closer to a $5 trillion economy, India is now emerging as an alternative in this shifting international power configuration. Shadowed by China, the manufacturing powerhouse of the world, India’s potential for growth largely remained a non-issue for the world for a while. But India’s new push for financial inclusion in the past nine years, an impressive three-fold increase in people’s incomes, reduced corruption and transparency in the delivery of services and the concomitant increase in ease of doing business are galvanising countries to deflect towards India¹. India’s attempts to rid these ailments of corruption, red tape, the deep-seated ailments afflicting the developing economies, and ensure transparency and accountability are slowly garnering international interest.

Deliberately staying away from the grandiose talks of a BRICS currency and dedollarisation, leading an alternate course by encouraging and promoting trade in national currencies, India is unveiling a new charter. Similarly, India’s seminal contribution and a great leap forward in commercial exchanges with digital payments which is now adopted in close to a dozen countries is increasingly finding favour.

At the BRICS Summit, showcasing India’s expertise in building public domains, PM Modi has offered to share these revolutionary platforms developed in India. The list includes- India Stack, a revolutionary public delivery system; CoWin- a platform to track vaccination; Bhashini, an AI-based language seamless language translation program; DIKSHA- a Digital Infrastructure for Knowledge Sharing Platform to provide education to children in remote and rural areas. Alongside, PM Modi has proposed collaboration on building ecosystems of traditional medicines, skill mapping, and big cats’ alliance cooperation².

Modi’s proposals as opposed to the cliched China’s “win-win cooperation”, a rough version of neo-colonialism in a different form epitomised India’s mutual beneficial development approach. India’s model is a stark departure from China’s insatiable capacity to dole out unsustainable infrastructure loans which has pushed several African countries to the brink of economic collapse. Several Global South countries' patrons of China’s connectivity projects are now seeking for alternative frameworks for growth and development.

Projecting herself as a credible actor to address the current global challenges, India has put down a strong foot to halt Beijing’s attempt to turn BRICS into a China Club to enhance its bargaining power and negotiate compacts. The expansion has been on the cards with China persistently pushing for it. The expansion is subject to the consensus-decision making of the member countries. India and Brazil resisted Chinese attempts but last year all five members expressed interest.

Originally conceived as BRIC, comprising of Brazil, Russia, India and China, with varied ideologies, interests and policies the common parameter of the bloc is the potential to dominate the global economy by 2050. South Africa was later admitted to the group making its BRICS. Though the group represents a quarter of global GDP, failure to evolve a coherent vision has left BRICS punch below its weight. The five economies of BRICS represent 41% of the global population and 16% of global trade.

Conflating its geopolitical games with the interests of the Global South, Beijing is attempting to project itself as the leader of the Global South. With a promise to rebalance the global order, China is planning to draw countries into the BRICS fold through an expansion drive. Intensifying activism, China urged BRICS to become a geopolitical rival to G7 and admit new countries to the bloc. Consequently, the enlargement of BRICS has topped the agenda of the 15^th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg.

Blunting Chinese attempts to bring in a disparate pool of countries strategically important for China, India has insisted on adopting a clear set of guidelines, guiding principles, standards, criteria and procedures for this expansion process. Additionally, PM Modi has pushed for a minimum per capita GDP requirement to stave off debt burdens.

India has in fact proposed rejecting countries on the target list of sanctions which includes Iran and Venezuela. But of the 22 countries that sought to join BRICS, through consultation and consensus- six countries were invited to join the bloc. These are -Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

China’s confrontation with the US entered a cold war-like scenario. But India dashed Chinese ambitions of building geopolitical clout through BRICS enlargement. Seeking to close the gap with China economically and firmly standing up to Beijing’s coercion, India is steadily evolving as a credible actor addressing global challenges. Offering practical and workable solutions and fostering developmental diplomacy in China-led organisations- SCO and BRICS, India is steadily propping herself as a regional challenger seeking a level playing field.

In contrast to China’s rhetoric of upholding the interests of the Global South, India hosted the Voice of the Global South Summit virtually under the theme of- “Unity of theme, Unity of Purpose” in January 2023. New Delhi has also put forth the proposal of G20 permanent membership for the African Union and rallied for the support of G20 countries. Indeed, donning the leadership mantle, Modi has outlined a new vision for BRICS which is B-Breaking barriers, R- Revitalising economies, I-Inspiring Innovation, C-Creating opportunities, S- Shaping the future.

China’s grandstanding of rebalancing the global power order and inclusion is in contravention to its resolute opposition to UNSC reforms. Calling out Beijing’s double speak PM Modi has, “called for setting defined timelines for UNSC reforms, called for reform of multilateral financial institutions, called for reform of WTO and exhorted BRICS to build consensus on its expansion” summarises MEA statement³.  The new India is no longer cowering under Chinese pressure and standing her ground, signalling her arrival. 

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Is Modi-Xi Bilateral at Johannesburg BRICS Summit on Cards?

As BRICS countries gear for the first in-person summit meet at Johannesburg since 2019, the suspense over a possible Modi-Xi meeting is keeping strategists hooked to the event. Ever since the leaders- PM Modi and President Xi Jinping confirmed their official attendance for the 15^th BRICS summit, a re-run of the 2017 Doklam standoff event is being envisioned by observers. The 73-day Doklam standoff ended on August 28 after China pulled back its troops ahead of the 9^th BRICS summit at Xiamen on September 3-5, 2017.

Scrupulous about international posturing and boastful of its emergence China found the Doklam standoff a jarring distraction for the BRICS summit. With India ostensibly linking her presence at the summit to the Doklam issue, China retracted forces. The hectic parleys between India and China ahead of the two international summits- BRICS at Johannesburg and the G20 summit in India are purportedly a repetition of the same.

The 19^th round of commander-level talks commenced after a gap of four months ahead of Independence Day on August 13. The talks which unusually continued for two days held at the Chushul-Moldo border meeting point were reportedly “positive”. The MEA read out stated, “The two sides had a positive, constructive and in-depth discussion on the resolution of the remaining issues along the LAC in the Western Sector. In line with the guidance provided by the leadership, they exchanged views in an open and forward-looking manner.” It also added, “They agreed to resolve the remaining issues in an expeditious manner and maintain the momentum of dialogue and negotiations through military and diplomatic channels. In the interim, the two sides agreed to maintain the peace and tranquility on the ground in the border areas”.

The phraseology of “peace and tranquility” is a departure from the 18^th round talks when countries talked of “security and stability” underscoring the need for maintaining the same at the border and the absence of the same. Reading between the lines while a section expressed concern over India’s urgency for an unrealistic “breakthrough” before the G20 summit but there is an evident palpable exigency on both sides to address the border issue. The precondition for “restoring peace and tranquility in the border areas” was set forth by NSA Ajit Doval during his talks with the Chinese Director of the office of the CPC foreign affairs commission.

Indeed, Doval told Wang Yi who was redesignated as the foreign minister after the sudden disappearance of Qin Gang along the sidelines of the Friends of BRICS meeting on July 25 at Johannesburg that continued efforts must be made “to fully resolve the situation and restore peace and tranquility in the border areas, so as to remove impediments to normalcy in bilateral relations”. He also emphasised the need for building trust.  Subsequently, the Chinese side which was reluctant for the next round of talks after April 23 agreed to the 19^th round. This further provided an impetus for a fresh round of Major General level of talks.

To strengthen confidence-building measures, reduce the friction and trust deficit and discuss finer details, India and China held Major General level talks on August 19 at two places-Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) and Chushul. Both sides agreed to continue regular interaction at battalion levels and to work out the limits of patrolling along LAC. As per some reports, brigade commanders' and commanding officers’ meetings have also commenced. Though there has been no breakthrough, both countries agreed to expeditiously resolve the issues. The focus is clearly on the demarcation of the patrolling regions especially in areas surrounding Depsang Plains and Demchok which are perennially ingressed under the ruse of “different perception of LAC”.

Post-2020 China has prevented Indian troops from carrying out regular patrolling to DBO. Though this issue predates the current stand-off, Chinese troops have prevented access to these regions. NSA Ajit Doval and Wang Yi who are in touch with each other are indicated to have “brainstormed over the situation along the LAC and the bilateral ties that have touched low”³. India-Chinese ties which have touched a new low post-Galwan are impacting regional stability. The West is growing increasingly wary of Beijing’s aggressive posturing not only along the LAC but in the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits.

The last structured talk between PM Modi and President Xi was held in 2019. The leaders had a brief interaction at the Bali G20 summit in November 2022.  But the outcomes have now become a matter of interpretation with China strategically surmising about reaching an “important consensus” for the stabilisation of India-China bilateral relations⁴. Absent a joint statement of the interaction, China intentionally released a statement on consensus eight months after the meeting.

India is clear about its priorities and is working on the 3Ds- disengagement, de-escalation and de-induction of troops to cool off tensions. Despite four rounds of disengagement from Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, Gogra (PP-17A) and Hot Springs (PP-15), over 50,000 troops are deployed on either side along the LAC. The immediate priority is the restoration of Indian patrolling at Depsang plains and Charding Ninglung Nallah (CNN) in the Demchok sector. The last major breakthrough was reached at the 16^th round of talks in September 2022. The standoff which is now in its fourth year has led to the militarisation of the LAC monitored through defacto patrolling by troops from both sides previously.

Though there is no official word about official bilateral along the sidelines of the BRICS summit, with the world leaders already arriving at the summit there is a buzz in the wake of hectic engagement between officials of both countries. Responding to queries foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra said that PM Modi’s itinerary for bilateral meetings is “still evolving”.

Mired with record-high youth unemployment, decreasing appetite for Chinese goods domestically and abroad, the Chinese economy has entered deflation. India’s hardened stance and failing military objectives on Ladakh have put Beijing on the back foot. With its obdurate stance, China has literally opened up all fronts simultaneously. China is hobbled by the festering border standoff, renewed tiffs with the Philippines at the South China Sea (SCS) and unremitting military drills across the Taiwan Straits. Prudently, cooling off tensions at Ladakh can be China’s best bet with two leaders set to cross paths at the BRICS summit and the G20 Summit. Though China’s feeler in terms of easing temporary visa rules for India is a positive development, as of now there is no clarity over the Modi-Xi bilateral.

Expected to be attended by over 60 world leaders, the 2023 BRICS summit is grabbing the headlines for its gambit of expansion and its impact on the geopolitical realm. But as PM Modi embarks for South Africa, India is harping on a breakthrough on the LAC standoff.

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Saudi Arabia and UAE Lead Middle East’s AI Race

The robust oil economies operating largest sovereign wealth funds are now among the biggest spenders of AI. Recognising the importance of AI and keen on playing a central role in emerging technologies, countries in the Middle East are acquiring emerging AI technologies to be niche AI nations. Rallying to be part of the global conversation on AI, Middle East nations have become the latest entrants to the ongoing AI technology race.

A study by Price Waterhouse Cooper projected that the Middle East region is expected to accrue AI benefits to the tune of $320 billion (2% of global benefits) by 2030¹. The largest gains can be availed by Saudi Arabia which is $135 billion or 12.4% of its GDP followed by UAE¹. Given the magnitude of the benefits, in the wake of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, not to be left behind, UAE and Saudi Arabia are leading the march in investing in AI technologies. Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Qatar are joining the brigade.

A recent report in the Financial Times on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates purchasing thousands of high-performance Nvidia chips for building AI software attests to this new interest². Joining the clamoring demand for Nvidia chips, the leading Gulf countries aflush with funds and resources are even planning to build their own talent pool as well.

Intent on turbocharging their economies by deploying the latest technology, both countries have made no secret of their ambitions to become leaders in AI. Reportedly Saudi has bought 3000 of Nvidia’s H100 chips through its famed research institution King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST). Pegged at $40,000 each, these processors are among the world’s first designed computer chips for generative AI.

On the other hand, UAE, the first nation to have a dedicated ministry for AI in 2017 secured access to thousands of Nvidia chips already. Embarking on a long-term plan of becoming independent and self-reliant, UAE besides attracting and nurturing computational power and talent, is building its own platforms. The state-owned Technology Innovation Institute in Masdar City, Abu Dhabi, has developed its own open-source Large Language Model, Falcon, to reduce dependence on US or China.

To reduce dependency on oil revenues through diversification under the Saudi Vision 2030 and National Transformation Program 2020, the Kingdom is giving a huge push to the adoption of AI and emerging technologies. In line with its vision, Saudi’s leading research centre KAUST has signed several technology cooperation agreements with institutes and businesses in Shenzen, dubbed as Silicon Valley of China. Currently, Saudi academics is dominated by Chinese demography.

In a testament to its focus on techno-scientific development, Saudi became the first nation to grant citizenship to a robot. In line with this vision, Saudi is also building the futuristic smart city NEOM with cutting-edge technology. Emulating the techno modernism of UAE, Saudi which is a late entrant in adopting the ambitious diversification goal is making rapid strides. Before the 1990s Saudi’s key scientific partners were US, Canada and Taiwan. By the mid-2000s as part of the Eastward Policy, Saudi formalised a scientific and technological partnership with China. This aligned with China’s quest to expand its footprint through connectivity networks in the region.

After the US imposed restrictions on Huawei, China shifted its focus to the Middle East and cemented institutional partnership frameworks with the Saudi market. Saudi has become a major ground for the deployment of 5G networks.

Aflush with funds and resources the Gulf countries are investing heavily toward developing an AI-ecosystem. UAE has launched the ‘Generative AI Guide’ which underscored its commitment to become a pioneer in technology and AI sectors and advocated for a regulatory framework to curb the negative use of technology. UAE developed its own version of ChatGPT in May this year.

Saudi and UAE are now competing against leading companies across the globe for these scarce Nvidia chips. The manufacturer of Nvidia chips is Taiwan’s Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) which primarily supplies chips to US companies. Saudi’s KAUST already owns 200 A-100 chips and is going to receive 3000 specialist chips by the end of 2023. Saudi is planning to build a supercomputer Shaheen III, LLM software similar to Open AI’s GPT-4 with Nvidia’s Superchips. This research work is carried out by Chinese AI experts working at KAUST. After the Chinese government stopped them from studying and working in the US many of them moved to Saudi’s KAUST.

Chinese companies Tencent and Alibaba are vying for these scarce chips but the Biden administration sanctions have marred their efforts to obtain the US-made technologies. Through its Saudi collaborations, China is still having its hands on US-made chips.

With a history of government crackdowns in both countries, human rights activists, and journalists are raising concerns over the potential usage of the software for unlawful surveillance against dissidents. Both countries are investing petrodollars reaped following a surge in energy prices last year on AI-enabled technologies. According to a report of the International Data Corporation, the Middle East is estimated to spend $ 3 billion on AI this year and with a year-on increase, it would rise to $6.4 billion by 2026³.

The potential uses of AI are immense, especially in the service sector, retailing, product manufacturing, high-performance computing, data analysis, data security, banking, digital financial services, the health sector, and many more. AI can be put to use for data filtering, facial recognition, surveillance, selective dissemination of propaganda and biased AI analysis raises speculations about its usage to crackdown on political opponents. The autocratic regimes with poor human rights records have raised more concerns about the potential misuse of AI technology.

Authoritarian leaders hold power in the Middle East and with no dearth of finances this continued splurge to acquire and build new technologies is reiterating the need for a regulatory framework to prevent misuse of the technologies by bad actors. UAE and Saudi have unveiled regulatory frameworks devoid of any legislation and a list of dos and don’ts that are legally binding. As new actors join the race, it is inevitable to evolve some regulatory framework to curb the deleterious use of these emerging technologies. It is also incumbent on large companies to build into technology certain guardrails and safety features to thwart the abuse of AI software.

Modelling their cyber centres along the lines of the UK’s prestigious National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), Saudi and UAE have effectively minimised cyberattacks. According to the Global Cybersecurity Index 2020 rankings, Saudi and UAE are ranked second and fifth out of 194 countries in cyber protection efforts⁴.

The renewed enthusiasm of Middle East nations to leapfrog Western countries and emerge as global leaders in AI is particularly interesting given their record as perennially warring nations. The rapid geopolitical alignments and reconciliation efforts within this region resonate well with their attempts to break the shackles of sectarian conflicts symptomatic of this region. These new pursuits and their raising international stature are something the nations have to watch out for.

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No Confidence Motion Backfires

The classic case of Indian opposition parties hijacking every session of the Parliament has now become their USP. Interestingly, just 24-48 hours ahead of almost every session some new issue mysteriously begins to trend which invariably becomes the single point agenda of the opposition. The video of the Manipur women magically surfaced just hours before the parliament monsoon session and this was the sole talking point of the opposition. This pattern of hopping onto a preset agenda is truly intriguing.

Never keen on keeping ground to the ear instead of pulling up the government for its failures and debating on developmental issues, the Indian opposition seems to avidly latch on to anti-India reports to hit back at the government. Sad but true, reports from unknown foreign media agencies become the sole reason to block the parliament for the opposition. The case in point is the Hindenburg report on Adani, the NYT report on Israeli surveillance software Pegasus and the French Mediapart’s proclamations on the Rafale aircraft acquisition. Consequently, entire sessions in both houses of Parliament concluded without any meaningful discussions on important legislations.

Amid protests in parliament by the opposition over the Pegasus issue in the 2021 monsoon session, 20 bills were passed in both houses of the Parliament without discussion or if any minimal limited to the Treasury Bench MPs presenting the bill. In clear terms, 9.7 minutes were granted to deliberate and reflect on each bill.  A combative approach devoid of working coordination between the government and the opposition is deepening unbridgeable political divides. By renouncing the basic moral probity of discussing real issues MPs are abdicating from their roles as people’s representatives. This obstinate approach is derailing the functioning of the parliament. The number of sittings has halved as compared to the 1^st Lok Sabha and the productivity too has taken a massive hit.

This obduracy fortified with an overwhelming ambition of the opposition to get back to power has caused them to fall into the same trap set for their government. The newly minted I.N.D.I.A alliance looking for an opportunity to corner the Modi government has harped on the Manipur issue to bolster their unity and conviction towards national interests. The sudden appearance of a video of Manipur women over two months after the incident has fit into this whole strategy of things. The Manipur violence is an issue of extreme cause of concern for the entire nation both in terms of internal stability and territorial sovereignty. But the methodical politicking made by the opposition has exposed their sinister agenda.

Amid uproar for its immediate listing and discussion, the proceedings of both houses of parliament on the first day were disrupted. Though the government agreed to discuss it, the opposition demanded that the business be carried under Rule 267 of Rajya Sabha’s Rules of Procedures and Conduct of Business. Under this, the House can suspend all of its pending business in order to focus on a matter that requires immediate attention. With a total of 31 bills lined up for the monsoon session, the government agreed to discuss the Manipur issue as per Rule 176 where a short-duration discussion on the matter of urgent public importance accompanied by an explanatory note and signed by at least two MPs can be taken up. The opposition refused this proposition and continued to block the parliament.

Home Minister wrote letters to leaders to break the deadlock but to no avail. The opposition issued a notice for a no-confidence motion (NCM) to force PM Modi to speak on the Manipur issue knowing well they are critically short on numbers. The ongoing turbulence in the state of Manipur has critically exposed inadequacies in administration. Though the state and central government have acted swiftly, the foresight to portend the consequences of a judicial verdict have widened the existing chasms and ignited a deluge of violence.

The opposition knew that they were way short of the numbers but to launch I.N.D.I.A and relaunch Rahul Gandhi for the nth time, the ghatbandhan parties collectively brought out NCM. This has eerie similarities to the 2018 NCM led by TDP that terminated its alliance with the NDA and challenged the BJP alleging the Centre’s discrimination towards the newly bifurcated state of Andhra Pradesh. In both instances, the political parties wanted to score political points. But the timing is really significant, back in 2018 PM Modi used the opportunity to gain political mileage. Even this time it is no different.

Unlike the 2018 NCM, where parties sat through the entire length of the debates and conclusively ended with customary voting, the opposition members impatiently walked out the house before PM Modi could even broach the Manipur issue. In his 133 minutes speech, PM Modi rebutted every allegation and effortlessly defended the stance of the government on various aspects including the much-awaited Manipur issue. The petulant opposition which has brought the parliament to ransom and blocked its functioning for Manipur was amiss when PM Modi expressed serious concern about the state and assuaged the people of the state. He also delved into the incidents in the past that reeked of neglect and apathy of the successive leaderships.

With his unmatched oratory laced with wit, sarcasm and innuendos, besides frustrating the opposition's attempts to nail the administration, Modi used this occasion to connect to the people of India. Post-Karnataka assembly elections, the Shining India Movement of 2004 when BJP faced a surprising defeat began to gain some ground. Effortlessly rattling off various initiatives and reforms undertaken in the past 9 years Modi flaunted his government’s achievements and positioned BJP as the only viable alternative for the country.

Setting the stage for the 2024 campaign, Modi confidently mocked at opposition to get ready for the 2028 NCM. On the face of it, though the open challenge smacked of arrogance, this sense of certainty is bolstered by the inadequacies of a confused opposition befuddled by muddled priorities that lacks commitment and unabashed drive.

For all the bluster and posturing, the opposition managed to earn themselves a sobriquet of disrupters. The empty opposition benches at the NCM epitomized their lack of commitment and sincerity. Having demanded NCM, the opposition didn’t manage to sit through the voting of the resolution and frittered away a rare opportunity to put up a fight. The I.N.D.I.A alliance unveiled with fanfare turned out to be a damp squib even before its launch. The symbolism in the name sounded meaningless as that is not reflected in their actions. NCM debates are meant to be extensive, elaborate peppered with stinging attacks. Hence the lame excuses of Modi coming to Manipur towards the fag end of his speech definitely holds no ground.

While Modi meticulously laid out bare the contradictions of the opposition, the I.N.D.I.A alliance failed to nail the government for its lapses in Manipur which have witnessed over 140 deaths, destruction of properties, displacement of thousands of people and horrifying abuse of women. The crux of wielding NCM by the opposition is to hold the government accountable. But a silent vote on this resolution exposed the dubious and vindictive intent of the opposition.

Poised to become the third largest economy, Modi pledged his unflinching commitment to helm the aspirations of young Indians. Expressing gratefulness towards the citizens for reposing faith in his leadership, Modi clearly spelled out his policies for governance. Surcharged with optimism, Modi’s ardent speech ignited hope while the unstructured speeches of the opposition hardly inspire any confidence. Opposition parties use the NCM debate to sound election bugle for their election campaigns but 2023 NCM proved to be a dampener.

To end political blame and ensure the proper functioning of parliament, the majority party must take all other parties into confidence while the opposition should play a constructive role. But the frequent disruptions and attempts to turn the parliamentary platform for politicking are eroding the credibility of the Indian parliament. Abusive tirades, sloganeering and heckling have reduced the debates to verbal slinging matches. Parliament is a forum for MPs to reach out to the entire nation. The people expect their representatives to debate on real issues.

With the opposition rearing to get back to power, their intent should be reinforced with efficacious debates. By failing to don a role constructive role, the I.N.D.I.A alliance deprived the country of a constructive and effective opposition, quintessential for a thriving parliamentary democracy. 

 

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Niger Coup: New Frontier for Great Power Competition

Even as fighting in Sudan continues to intensify the cauldron of uncertainty, a coup in Niger has only heightened concerns about the political fragility of States in the Sahel region.

The Sahel region is an arid belt in Africa that separates the Northern Sahara Desert from the Southern Savannah region and connects the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea. A melting pot of nomadic, Arabic, and Islamic cultures from the North and the native and traditional cultures from the South the region is mired in ethno-religious conflicts, famines, anti-state rebellions, arms and drug trafficking. Rich in resources, the region with some of the world’s poorest countries has turned into a ground for regional actors and radical Islamist terror groups that competed to exploit the mineral wealth. The region is most unstable and coup-prone.

Since 2020 the region witnessed five successful coups now headed by military leaders governing Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso. The latest to join this club is Niger. 2021 marked the first peaceful transition of power in Niger to the democratically elected leader Mohamed Bazoum. Incidentally, 48 hours ahead of his inauguration, a coup attempt was foiled reflecting the existence of disgruntled military leaders. This discontent and speculation of a massive overhaul of the security setup and replacement of Presidential Guards with more loyal troops spurred the current military putsch. Unleashing a silent coup, the chief of Presidential Guards, General Omar Abdurahmone Tchiani on July 26 took over the civilian Nigerien government and declared himself as the head of the state on July 28.

Akin to putschists of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea citing rising insecurity, declining economic growth, and poor governance, the junta defended a military takeover to safeguard the country from a “gradual and inevitable” demise. Additionally, the presence of foreign troops in the country and the perceived “foreign origins” of Bazoum who belongs to the Arab minority had furthered this coup with the general public acquiescing support to the junta.

Since the independence of Niger in 1960 from France, there were four official coups that account for 23 years of military rule. Democracy finally returned in 2011. For a decade indeed, a semblance of democracy reigned in the Sahel region igniting the hope of stability. But all this came down crashing with the return of a domino of coups by 2020.

France played a central role in leading the security efforts in the region. In the wake of the Libyan civil war, Islamist terror groups attempted to create unrest in Mali. To curtail the Islamist offensive and prevent the toppling of the Mali government, France has launched Operation Serval. As a follow-up to its successful efforts, France formed G5 Sahel Force and deployed 5000 troops as part of Operation Barkhane for its former colonies in the region- Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and Niger.

To safeguard the region from Islamist forces and Islamic State affiliates, the EU under the French command launched Operation Takuba which also worked in coordination with MINUSMA (UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali). But increased violence and terrorism despite the security programs eroded the credibility of France and the EU as security providers. This opened up a channel for Russia's Wagner forces to enter Mali.

In fact, following series of coups in Chad, Mali, and Burkina Faso around 2021 France was forced to withdraw its troops from Mali. Then Bazoum invited them to Niger. The Nigerian military officials denounced the move. Since then, Niger has become the most important regional partner for the US in counterterror efforts. The US has two military drone bases and 1100 troops in Niger. These bases serve as critical intelligence and surveillance hub in Africa. With restricted access in Djibouti and plausible closure of these drone bases in Niger, the US efforts to take on terror groups and extremist elements like ISIS and Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) are going to take a major hit.

Niger is the seventh-largest exporter of Uranium. Junta’s announcement of the suspension of exports of Uranium and Gold to France and the EU sparked fresh concerns about nuclear fuel and energy security. Home to thousands of refugees and displaced people, Niger has been regulating the northward migration of asylum seekers.

Playing to the concerns of anti-colonial sentiments of the general public, the junta also terminated defense security agreements with France. Days after the military takeover, the public raised Russian flags expressing their angst toward Western allies. The rejection of the West and a new trust in Russia stems from the Wagner group’s success in containing terrorist advancements in Mali and Burkina Faso. Pertinently, a diminished presence of the US and French forces in the region would create more space for the Wagner group.

Dismayed by a rapid succession of coups, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headed by Nigeria and 11 other countries have sanctioned and suspended Niger from the group and warned of military action if the Nigerien junta fails to reinstate the democratic government by August 6. Nigeria which is a supplier of 70% of electricity to Niger has cut off the power supply.

The US, France and the EU have condemned the coup. But the US has been rather guarded in terming the takeover as a coup as US law would then prevent Washington from financing and training the Niger military. The US has invested $500 million to train and equip the Nigerien military for counterterror operations. But France has warned of action if its interests in the region are threatened. US and France have evacuated their citizens from Niger, underscoring the situation's criticality. Niger was the West’s last reliable counterterrorism partner and a coup is the last straw.

ECOWAS has in the past used threat and military force against countries but the dynamics have now changed with Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso supporting the coup. Burkina Faso and Mali issued a joint statement, “any military intervention against Niger would be tantamount to a declaration of war against Burkina Faso and Mali” and warned that any such move could result in “disastrous consequences” that could “destabilize the entire region”¹.

As the deadline neared, Niger military junta dispatched a representative to contact the Wagner Group in Mali. While the West rejected the role of Russia in Niger’s coup, these coups have certainly opened up a vacuum for the Wagner to enter African countries. Junta refused to let the US official Victoria Nuland and West Africa’s delegation meet either deposed President Bazoum or putschist Gen Tchiani.

The Nigerien junta ordered the closure of airspace and land borders and appointed a new Prime Minister Ali Lemane Zene, an economist and former finance minister. To entrench its power the junta announced new cabinet ministers. Angered by the slew of sanctions imposed by ECOWAS, Niger turned down the request by a joint delegation from the UN, African Union (AU) and ECOWAS after the deadline and demanded for certain revisions to take part in diplomatic negotiations.

Though the defence chiefs of ECOWAS have readied all plans and resources for military action, any confrontation can push the region into conflict and prolonged instability. As the impasse continues, the former rebel leader of Niger launched a movement opposing the military junta government reiterating the demand to reinstate President Bazoum. Internal resistance to military government is a welcome sign ahead of the ECOWAS leaders summit on Thursday. Diplomatic negotiations are the best bet for leaders on either side of the table to address the impasse.

As a strategic military base to France and the US, Niger sitting on a huge stockpile of natural resources like Uranium, coal, gold, iron ore, tin, molybdenum, and petroleum is of acute interest both in terms of resources and geopolitically. The West wouldn’t let go of its control over Niger without a fight. But of late, the Wagner group has earned the reputation of providing a security guarantee for the regimes in a region where the insurgency is a prominent threat. Burgeoning skepticism of the West, the failure of the Western forces to quell Islamist terrorism and the entrenched anti-colonial predilections have eroded their criticality to the region.

Other than the ongoing Ukraine war, NATO’s strategic southern flank is now the new frontier for the West versus Russian contest.  Though tied up in the Ukraine conflict, nurturing its global ambitions, Russia is steadily expanding its ground in Africa post-Syrian intervention. The African continent aflush with resources, opportunities for growth and a fast-growing population is now the new power centre.

The West’s project of ushering the continent into liberal democracy post-cold war which failed to take off owing to weak institutions, muted support from regional organisations like AU, and poor national building has plunged the countries back into instability and insurgency. Disjointed military policies, the absence of a regional game plan, and the strategic disconnect of the West have augmented the internal fissures and undermined their credence. Diversifying its relations, the continent is now seeking new partners.

It is in this context, the Wagner group’s increasing presence in Africa is shifting the balance of power in the region. With the West deeply invested in Ukraine, the Wagner Group is helming Russian aspirations and strengthening its influence in Africa.

While coups are common in Africa, major powers are now sensing a rare opportunity of positioning themselves amid this political instability through security guarantees. In tune with the rapidly shifting geopolitical dimension, countries are swiftly recalibrating their partnerships- revamping, reviving, and rescinding ties. African countries are not too far behind in this race in aligning themselves with new powers.

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Nuh Violence: Neither Spontaneous nor Provocative

The orgy of violence, mayhem and rampant destruction in the Nuh riots led to the death of 6 individuals and left over 60 severely injured. At the heart of these communal tensions is once again a Hindu procession and the Muslim stone pelting. The regularity of the attacks reflects the failure of law-and-order agencies and the absence of a strong deterrent action.

Considering the alarming frequency of such attacks, these events ceased to be one of the stray instances, but in fact, have turned out to be a recurrent spectacle. The intensity and its periodicity have increased disproportionately.  These attacks also have become an added accompaniment to the Hindu festivals. This disturbing trend of Hindu festivals coming under attack in one corner of the country or another being plagued by some controversy raises serious questions about the religious freedom of the majority community of the country.

The violence in Nuh belied the causal vindication of it being “spontaneous” with overwhelming direct witness accounts and evidence suggesting otherwise. For the attack to be spontaneous, the procession should have at least travelled some distance. Barely 10 minutes after the procession started from the temple, projectiles from the hilltops surrounding the temple started hitting the people directly.

As per the first witness accounts a mob of over 600-800 people charged towards the temple shouting “Allahu Akbar” and “Pakistan Zindabad” and charged the Hindus with stones, iron rods, and rifles shots were fired in the air. The hapless Hindus reportedly took shelter in the temple till the security troops arrived. This chain of events outrightly demolishes the “spontaneity” theory floated around by the commentariat and shatters the charges of “provocation” as this religious ritual has been an annual affair. On the contrary, it lends credence to Chief Minister M. L. Khattar’s remarks of Nuh violence as “pre-planned” and points to a bigger conspiracy. 

In May, Haryana police busted a cyber fraud of Rs. 100 crores and arrested 65 people. The district has been a breeding ground for cybercrime and the groups extort the people through sextortion. The conspiracy in question perhaps points to an attempt by a group of rioters to attack and burn down the Cyber Police station which contained the records of the cybercrime.

As a seat of Tabligi Jamaat, the district comprising over 87% Muslim population nicknamed as Mini Pakistan has been a communal cauldron. The region is sensitive not because of its Muslim population, but because the Jamaat has extensive connections with Madrassas and Masjids across the sub-continent and shelters Rohingyas. Inhabited by Meo Muslims, who were originally Chauhans during the 17^th century, demanded a separate Meostan at the time of partition. This region has witnessed waves of conversions, reconversions, and religious radicalisation as well.

In lieu of the recent crackdown on Cybercrime in the district carried by the youth of age group 18-35 and numerous fake videos circulated to stoke communal tensions, the State law and order agencies should have been more vigilant having granted permission for the Hindu yatra. The quick flareup of tensions and its rapid spread to the neighbouring areas once again reiterates the observation that Nuh violence is a pre-planned and well-coordinated act.

For all the aforementioned reasons, the dubious alibi of labelling any group activity of Hindu as “provocative” is preposterous. By perennially cultivating the contentious discourse of Hindu yatra entering a Muslim-dominated region as taboo, the left-liberal commentariat has provided a smoke screen for the ghettoization of Muslims in certain pockets which have tuned into no-go areas. This inadvertently bestowed Muslims' legitimacy over those spaces where entry of any other community is denied. These fabricated narratives over a period of time besides segregating the geographical spaces have sowed divisions between communities.

This template of Muslim-dominated spaces being kosher to others was used to defend attacks on Hindus in India for centuries now. Unfortunately, this discourse is now longer Indian-centric. This contentious argument is extended to Hindus across the globe. Ascribing the peaceful rally of Hindus chanting, “Jai Shri Ram” in Leicestershire through alleged Muslim-dominated regions as provocation targeted attacks on houses, properties, and businesses have been condoned. Terming the sloganeering as “Hindutvavaadi”, anti-Hindu rhetoric was peddled and a Hindu temple was vandalized and defaced.

Be it in India or on foreign shores, “Jai Shri Ram” is deemed as the rise of Hindutva and on the contrary, the war cry of “Allahu Akbar” is treated as an affirmation of faith. The global commentariat which jumps the gun to demonize Hindutva is wary of calling out “Islamisation” for their targeted attacks. The vulnerable Hindu micro minorities in foreign lands are not extended the similar privilege extended to Muslims globally.  

This pan-global narrative of carefully insulating Muslim sentiments from being offended is now a norm among left-liberal academicians and intellectuals. Calling out the self-righteousness of the PEN American Centre for conferring the annual Freedom of Expression courage award to Charlie Hebdo, in 2015 six writers withdrew from the awards fest. The writers wrote, “All this is complicated by PEN’s seeming blindness to the cultural arrogance of the French nation, which does not recognise its moral obligation to a large and disempowered segment of their population”¹.

This perhaps has a set precedent for the Award Wapsi Movement in India, who returned their prestigious award citing intolerance in the country. This dominant narrative of the vulnerability of Muslims has got them a free pass. Whitewashing their violence has been the obvious fallout.

Any attempt to call out the religious extremism of Muslims is automatically censured as Islamophobia. Bolstering this victimhood of Muslims, the UNGA passed a resolution to combat Islamophobia and declared March 15^th as the International Day to Combat Islamophobia.

Unfortunately, Hindus the dominant community in India which suffers due to religious zealotry of the second largest majority, Muslims are labelled as perpetrators. Reports published in The Hindustan Times state that ahead of the Yatra, WhatsApp groups were formed and responsibilities were assigned for gathering stones and glass bottles to be thrown at the procession. Predominant apologia offered for the attack is that Monu Manesar, allegedly responsible for the killing of two Muslim youths expressed his interest to join the procession. Is this vigilante justice any excuse to target the devotees who have gathered to perform the ritualistic practice of carrying Yamuna waters to Mathura as part of the Jalabhisheka tenable?

This dangerous trend of condoning acts of violence helmed by jaundiced narratives decrying and denouncing any serious investigation on targeted attacks against Hindus for matters of political correctness is unacceptable. Blinded discernment in the face of burgeoning communal flareups can be disastrous. Systemic demonising of the majority community for every communal eruption is illogical.  Prolonged denial of justice can in long term buttress identitarianism and deepen the fissures.

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Stabilisation of India-China Ties: A Work in Progress

The usual Chinese rhetoric has been on display once again at the Friends of BRICS countries meeting in Johannesburg. The talks between the NSA Ajit Doval and director of CCP foreign affairs commissioner and the current foreign minister of China, Wang Yi had huddled the attention for India’s forthright strategic messaging. Explicitly pointing to “eroded strategic trust and the public and political basis of the relationship” since the 2020 Galwan incident, Doval categorically emphasised for “restoration of peace and tranquillity at the borders so as to remove impediments to the normalcy in bilateral relations”.  Addressing the border issue is the priority for India which Beijing continues to defer.

China’s approach is evident from the Chinese readout, with Wang calling “for enhancing mutual trust, focus on consensus and cooperation, overcome obstacles and bring bilateral relations back on track of sound and stable development” and stressing, “China will never seek hegemony and stands ready to work with developing countries, including India to support multilateralism and support the democratisation of international relations, and promote the more just and equitable development of international order”¹.

Unflinched by China’s diversionary tactics, earlier in Jakarta along the sidelines of ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum) Ministerial meeting, EAM Jaishankar delivered a similar message to Wang Yi. India has firmly resisted the mythical peace posturing of China. Defence Minister Rajnath in his talks with his counterpart also reiterated that “violation of existing agreements has eroded the basis of bilateral relations and disengagement at the border will logically be followed with de-escalation”² while General Shangfu persisted India and China have, “more common interests than divergences”³.

The discernible pattern of Chinese obfuscation is in line with China’s demurral to the 19^th round of Corps-Commander level talks for troop disengagement at Depsang Plains and Charding Ningnung Nallah (CNN) at Demchok junction and massive troop accumulation. The 18^th round of talks was held on April 23^rd ahead of the SCO Defence Ministers meeting. Bolstered by the rapid build-up of infrastructure across the LAC on both sides the heightened military confrontation has entered the fourth summer making borders restive. But China, intent on keeping the borders unstable to use as leverage against India is evading direct talks.

Taking away the focus from the border issue, post Doval-Wang meeting, the Chinese foreign ministry released a statement mentioning that Xi and Modi have arrived at an “important consensus on stabilising India-China relations” at G20 Bali Summit. The readout states, “the two sides should adhere to the strategic judgement of the leaders… that ‘they do not pose a threat to each other, and they are each other’s development opportunities’, truly implement the consensus on stabilising bilateral relations into specific policies, and translate them into concerted actions by various departments and fields, enhance strategic mutual trust, focus on consensus and cooperation, overcome interference and difficulties, and promote the return of bilateral relations to the track of healthy and stable development at an early date”⁴.

Post Bali Summit, briefing the press foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra has informed about both leaders exchanging courtesies and there was no mention of talk on border issues.  Issuing a clarification to the Chinese readout, the MEA spokesperson said, Foreign Secretary left out the two leaders speaking about the border situation then and added, that they spoke of the need to “stabilise our bilateral relations”.

Clearly, the timing of the release of the Chinese readout is a suspect. Given India’s domestic political landscape heating up in the run-up to elections analysts opine that China’s clever spin on the relations might provide a handle to the Congress to needle PM Modi. But in the global milieu, the management of China in the contemporary world order has become more challenging. The optimism over China’s rise has transformed into an exigency prompting the West to reorient their “Strategy of China”. Caught up in the clash of geopolitical and geoeconomic realities, despite economic opportunities, European countries are now reassessing ties with China. The looming insecurity in Indo-Pacific owing to China’s hegemonistic expansionism and its intransigence to a “consensus” with India has only accelerated this new shift.

Unconcerned about China’s consensus, the Indian chair of the G20 is not engaging with Beijing. But the upcoming BRICS Summit is certainly a testing ground for evaluating China’s worldview. Hence, China released the readout eight months after the summit to indulge India. While the Chinese statement on “consensus” is expected to keep India on the defensive, by issuing stapled visas to athletes from Arunachal Pradesh, part of India’s Wushu team, Beijing has shot itself in the foot. India promptly withdrew the Wushu team to make its stand clear.

Summoning the Chinese ambassador, India lodged a serious protest and strongly countered, “our long-standing and consistent position is that there should be no discrimination or differential treatment on the basis of domicile or ethnicity in the visa regime for Indian citizens holding valid Indian passport”⁵.

Unlike the stamped visa where a visit is recorded in the passport, the stapled visa is a document attached/ stapled to the passport and it leaves no trace of the trip carried out by the visa holder. Wielding this political tool, China intends to make a statement that it doesn’t recognise the claim of India over those regions. China also started issuing stapled visas to residents of Jammu & Kashmir in 2009.

These small and incremental steps in addition to the ruthless violation of the bilateral agreements, encircling India by advancing through Amu Chu, frequent trips of Chinese vessels to Bay of Bengal to collect Ocean bed data, setting up stealthy radar station at Coco Islands, stonewalling of India’s membership to the nuclear regime Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), vetoing inclusion of Pakistan-based terrorists like Masood Azhar, Sajid Mir and Rauf Ashgar in the UNSC 1247 sanctions regime have corroded the ties. China’s weaponization of water through the construction of multiple dams upstream of Brahmaputra and denial of hydrological data on the release of river waters has put India under perennial stress of drought and floods.

PLA’s adversarial incursion as part of strategic messaging asserting its hegemony coinciding with the state visits has undermined the neighbourly trust. Cursory efforts to recalibrate bilateral ties post 73 days standoff at Doklam in 2017 with the 2018 Wuhan Spirit and 2019 Mamallapuram reset hit a major block and were irrevocably damaged by the murderous 2020 Galwan treachery. China’s consensus on its terms for India, its obduracy and lack of reciprocity have deepened the entrenched mistrust.

Latest intelligence reports of Pakistan and China capitalising on the unrest in Manipur to push infiltrators and spies, former COAS MM Naravane’s remarks of plausible foreign hand in the Manipur crisis and recovery of Chinese-made weapons from the disturbed areas of the state have only vindicated India’s security concerns of China.

Hence contrary to the Chinese anticipation of the Bali summit readout of reaching a “consensus” doing magic is misplaced and illusionary. India is unlikely to back down on its stated position of restoration of the pre-April 2020 status quo ante at the LAC.

India is no longer reticent. As a member of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), India has refused to endorse BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) and China’s Economic Development Strategy 2030 which echoed Chinese official policies. Replete with Chinese diplomatic catchphrases, India stiffly resisted China’s agenda. Thwarting China’s unbridled aspirations to enhance its influence by expanding BRICS, India along with Brazil are insisting on strict rules for BRICS membership.

New Delhi is now frustrating Chinese attempts to swamp Indian growing markets through its opaque investments and nebulous acquisitions conniving India’s rules and regulations. Given burgeoning global scepticism, India is closely monitoring China’s stakes in strategic assets, especially Indian banking sector. Strictly scrutinising investments from countries that share borders, India has rejected China’s $1 billion investment in EVs on the grounds of national security.

China’s unrelenting adversarial position is driving India to cement a multidimensional partnership with the US. Geopolitical tensions between the West and China, and Covid-induced supply chain disruptions are forcing investors to explore alternative investment and manufacturing destinations. As a political democracy with a pluralistic society, India’s demographic dividend and skilled human resources India are positioning her as a favoured investment destination.

Capitalising on the escalating Chip war between the US and China India has adeptly announced a guideline for semiconductor cooperation and successfully sealed pacts with the US and Japan. Spurning China’s intimidatory tactics, refusing to cower down, India is challenging China’s ‘Unipolar Asia’ pursuits.

Chinese insecurities over India’s strategic autonomy, perception of India as a threat to its superpower ambitions, and India’s rising potential as a counterbalance to Chinese aggressive assertions in the Indo-Pacific region have spawned a spirit of competition in lieu of mutually beneficial cooperation. Though India and China share similar concerns over global challenges like climate change, WTO, and reforms in international financial institutions etc, the areas of common interests are rapidly shrinking with divergences overpowering them. With shifting goalposts and a maximalist position of “what is mine is mine and what is yours is negotiable” the border discussions have come to a nought. Apparently, bilateral ties laid on the foundation of unresolved border issues can’t remain stable.

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