Niger Coup: New Frontier for Great Power Competition

Even as fighting in Sudan continues to intensify the cauldron of uncertainty, a coup in Niger has only heightened concerns about the political fragility of States in the Sahel region.

The Sahel region is an arid belt in Africa that separates the Northern Sahara Desert from the Southern Savannah region and connects the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea. A melting pot of nomadic, Arabic, and Islamic cultures from the North and the native and traditional cultures from the South the region is mired in ethno-religious conflicts, famines, anti-state rebellions, arms and drug trafficking. Rich in resources, the region with some of the world’s poorest countries has turned into a ground for regional actors and radical Islamist terror groups that competed to exploit the mineral wealth. The region is most unstable and coup-prone.

Since 2020 the region witnessed five successful coups now headed by military leaders governing Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso. The latest to join this club is Niger. 2021 marked the first peaceful transition of power in Niger to the democratically elected leader Mohamed Bazoum. Incidentally, 48 hours ahead of his inauguration, a coup attempt was foiled reflecting the existence of disgruntled military leaders. This discontent and speculation of a massive overhaul of the security setup and replacement of Presidential Guards with more loyal troops spurred the current military putsch. Unleashing a silent coup, the chief of Presidential Guards, General Omar Abdurahmone Tchiani on July 26 took over the civilian Nigerien government and declared himself as the head of the state on July 28.

Akin to putschists of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea citing rising insecurity, declining economic growth, and poor governance, the junta defended a military takeover to safeguard the country from a “gradual and inevitable” demise. Additionally, the presence of foreign troops in the country and the perceived “foreign origins” of Bazoum who belongs to the Arab minority had furthered this coup with the general public acquiescing support to the junta.

Since the independence of Niger in 1960 from France, there were four official coups that account for 23 years of military rule. Democracy finally returned in 2011. For a decade indeed, a semblance of democracy reigned in the Sahel region igniting the hope of stability. But all this came down crashing with the return of a domino of coups by 2020.

France played a central role in leading the security efforts in the region. In the wake of the Libyan civil war, Islamist terror groups attempted to create unrest in Mali. To curtail the Islamist offensive and prevent the toppling of the Mali government, France has launched Operation Serval. As a follow-up to its successful efforts, France formed G5 Sahel Force and deployed 5000 troops as part of Operation Barkhane for its former colonies in the region- Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and Niger.

To safeguard the region from Islamist forces and Islamic State affiliates, the EU under the French command launched Operation Takuba which also worked in coordination with MINUSMA (UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali). But increased violence and terrorism despite the security programs eroded the credibility of France and the EU as security providers. This opened up a channel for Russia's Wagner forces to enter Mali.

In fact, following series of coups in Chad, Mali, and Burkina Faso around 2021 France was forced to withdraw its troops from Mali. Then Bazoum invited them to Niger. The Nigerian military officials denounced the move. Since then, Niger has become the most important regional partner for the US in counterterror efforts. The US has two military drone bases and 1100 troops in Niger. These bases serve as critical intelligence and surveillance hub in Africa. With restricted access in Djibouti and plausible closure of these drone bases in Niger, the US efforts to take on terror groups and extremist elements like ISIS and Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) are going to take a major hit.

Niger is the seventh-largest exporter of Uranium. Junta’s announcement of the suspension of exports of Uranium and Gold to France and the EU sparked fresh concerns about nuclear fuel and energy security. Home to thousands of refugees and displaced people, Niger has been regulating the northward migration of asylum seekers.

Playing to the concerns of anti-colonial sentiments of the general public, the junta also terminated defense security agreements with France. Days after the military takeover, the public raised Russian flags expressing their angst toward Western allies. The rejection of the West and a new trust in Russia stems from the Wagner group’s success in containing terrorist advancements in Mali and Burkina Faso. Pertinently, a diminished presence of the US and French forces in the region would create more space for the Wagner group.

Dismayed by a rapid succession of coups, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headed by Nigeria and 11 other countries have sanctioned and suspended Niger from the group and warned of military action if the Nigerien junta fails to reinstate the democratic government by August 6. Nigeria which is a supplier of 70% of electricity to Niger has cut off the power supply.

The US, France and the EU have condemned the coup. But the US has been rather guarded in terming the takeover as a coup as US law would then prevent Washington from financing and training the Niger military. The US has invested $500 million to train and equip the Nigerien military for counterterror operations. But France has warned of action if its interests in the region are threatened. US and France have evacuated their citizens from Niger, underscoring the situation's criticality. Niger was the West’s last reliable counterterrorism partner and a coup is the last straw.

ECOWAS has in the past used threat and military force against countries but the dynamics have now changed with Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso supporting the coup. Burkina Faso and Mali issued a joint statement, “any military intervention against Niger would be tantamount to a declaration of war against Burkina Faso and Mali” and warned that any such move could result in “disastrous consequences” that could “destabilize the entire region”¹.

As the deadline neared, Niger military junta dispatched a representative to contact the Wagner Group in Mali. While the West rejected the role of Russia in Niger’s coup, these coups have certainly opened up a vacuum for the Wagner to enter African countries. Junta refused to let the US official Victoria Nuland and West Africa’s delegation meet either deposed President Bazoum or putschist Gen Tchiani.

The Nigerien junta ordered the closure of airspace and land borders and appointed a new Prime Minister Ali Lemane Zene, an economist and former finance minister. To entrench its power the junta announced new cabinet ministers. Angered by the slew of sanctions imposed by ECOWAS, Niger turned down the request by a joint delegation from the UN, African Union (AU) and ECOWAS after the deadline and demanded for certain revisions to take part in diplomatic negotiations.

Though the defence chiefs of ECOWAS have readied all plans and resources for military action, any confrontation can push the region into conflict and prolonged instability. As the impasse continues, the former rebel leader of Niger launched a movement opposing the military junta government reiterating the demand to reinstate President Bazoum. Internal resistance to military government is a welcome sign ahead of the ECOWAS leaders summit on Thursday. Diplomatic negotiations are the best bet for leaders on either side of the table to address the impasse.

As a strategic military base to France and the US, Niger sitting on a huge stockpile of natural resources like Uranium, coal, gold, iron ore, tin, molybdenum, and petroleum is of acute interest both in terms of resources and geopolitically. The West wouldn’t let go of its control over Niger without a fight. But of late, the Wagner group has earned the reputation of providing a security guarantee for the regimes in a region where the insurgency is a prominent threat. Burgeoning skepticism of the West, the failure of the Western forces to quell Islamist terrorism and the entrenched anti-colonial predilections have eroded their criticality to the region.

Other than the ongoing Ukraine war, NATO’s strategic southern flank is now the new frontier for the West versus Russian contest.  Though tied up in the Ukraine conflict, nurturing its global ambitions, Russia is steadily expanding its ground in Africa post-Syrian intervention. The African continent aflush with resources, opportunities for growth and a fast-growing population is now the new power centre.

The West’s project of ushering the continent into liberal democracy post-cold war which failed to take off owing to weak institutions, muted support from regional organisations like AU, and poor national building has plunged the countries back into instability and insurgency. Disjointed military policies, the absence of a regional game plan, and the strategic disconnect of the West have augmented the internal fissures and undermined their credence. Diversifying its relations, the continent is now seeking new partners.

It is in this context, the Wagner group’s increasing presence in Africa is shifting the balance of power in the region. With the West deeply invested in Ukraine, the Wagner Group is helming Russian aspirations and strengthening its influence in Africa.

While coups are common in Africa, major powers are now sensing a rare opportunity of positioning themselves amid this political instability through security guarantees. In tune with the rapidly shifting geopolitical dimension, countries are swiftly recalibrating their partnerships- revamping, reviving, and rescinding ties. African countries are not too far behind in this race in aligning themselves with new powers.

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