As BRICS countries gear for the first in-person summit meet at Johannesburg since 2019, the suspense over a possible Modi-Xi meeting is keeping strategists hooked to the event. Ever since the leaders- PM Modi and President Xi Jinping confirmed their official attendance for the 15th BRICS summit, a re-run of the 2017 Doklam standoff event is being envisioned by observers. The 73-day Doklam standoff ended on August 28 after China pulled back its troops ahead of the 9th BRICS summit at Xiamen on September 3-5, 2017.
Scrupulous
about international posturing and boastful of its emergence China found the Doklam
standoff a jarring distraction for the BRICS summit. With India ostensibly
linking her presence at the summit to the Doklam issue, China retracted forces.
The hectic parleys between India and China ahead of the two international
summits- BRICS at Johannesburg and the G20 summit in India are purportedly a
repetition of the same.
The 19th
round of commander-level talks commenced after a gap of four months ahead of
Independence Day on August 13. The talks which unusually continued for two days
held at the Chushul-Moldo border meeting point were reportedly “positive”.
The MEA read out stated, “The two sides had a positive, constructive and
in-depth discussion on the resolution of the remaining issues along the LAC in
the Western Sector. In line with the guidance provided by the leadership, they
exchanged views in an open and forward-looking manner.” It also added, “They
agreed to resolve the remaining issues in an expeditious manner and maintain
the momentum of dialogue and negotiations through military and diplomatic
channels. In the interim, the two sides agreed to maintain the peace and
tranquility on the ground in the border areas”.
The
phraseology of “peace and tranquility” is a departure from the 18th
round talks when countries talked of “security and stability”
underscoring the need for maintaining the same at the border and the absence of
the same. Reading between the lines while a section expressed concern over
India’s urgency for an unrealistic “breakthrough” before the G20 summit but there
is an evident palpable exigency on both sides to address the border issue. The
precondition for “restoring peace and tranquility in the border areas”
was set forth by NSA Ajit Doval during his talks with the Chinese Director of
the office of the CPC foreign affairs commission.
Indeed,
Doval told Wang Yi who was redesignated as the foreign minister after the
sudden disappearance of Qin Gang along the sidelines of the Friends of BRICS
meeting on July 25 at Johannesburg that continued efforts must be made “to
fully resolve the situation and restore peace and tranquility in the border
areas, so as to remove impediments to normalcy in bilateral relations”. He
also emphasised the need for building trust. Subsequently, the Chinese side which was
reluctant for the next round of talks after April 23 agreed to the 19th
round. This further provided an impetus for a fresh round of Major General
level of talks.
To
strengthen confidence-building measures, reduce the friction and trust deficit
and discuss finer details, India and China held Major General level talks on
August 19 at two places-Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) and Chushul. Both sides agreed
to continue regular interaction at battalion levels and to work out the limits
of patrolling along LAC. As per some reports, brigade commanders' and
commanding officers’ meetings have also commenced. Though there has been no
breakthrough, both countries agreed to expeditiously resolve the issues. The
focus is clearly on the demarcation of the patrolling regions especially in
areas surrounding Depsang Plains and Demchok which are perennially ingressed
under the ruse of “different perception of LAC”.
Post-2020
China has prevented Indian troops from carrying out regular patrolling to DBO. Though
this issue predates the current stand-off, Chinese troops have prevented access
to these regions. NSA Ajit Doval and Wang Yi who are in touch with each other
are indicated to have “brainstormed over the situation along the LAC and the
bilateral ties that have touched low”3. India-Chinese
ties which have touched a new low post-Galwan are impacting regional stability.
The West is growing increasingly wary of Beijing’s aggressive posturing not
only along the LAC but in the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits.
The last
structured talk between PM Modi and President Xi was held in 2019. The leaders
had a brief interaction at the Bali G20 summit in November 2022. But the outcomes have now become a matter of
interpretation with China strategically surmising about reaching an “important
consensus” for the stabilisation of India-China bilateral relations4.
Absent a joint statement of the interaction, China intentionally released a
statement on consensus eight months after the meeting.
India is
clear about its priorities and is working on the 3Ds- disengagement,
de-escalation and de-induction of troops to cool off tensions. Despite four
rounds of disengagement from Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, Gogra (PP-17A) and Hot
Springs (PP-15), over 50,000 troops are deployed on either side along the LAC.
The immediate priority is the restoration of Indian patrolling at Depsang
plains and Charding Ninglung Nallah (CNN) in the Demchok sector. The last major
breakthrough was reached at the 16th round of talks in September
2022. The standoff which is now in its fourth year has led to the
militarisation of the LAC monitored through defacto patrolling by troops from
both sides previously.
Though there
is no official word about official bilateral along the sidelines of the BRICS
summit, with the world leaders already arriving at the summit there is a buzz
in the wake of hectic engagement between officials of both countries.
Responding to queries foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra said that PM Modi’s itinerary
for bilateral meetings is “still evolving”.
Mired with
record-high youth unemployment, decreasing appetite for Chinese goods
domestically and abroad, the Chinese economy has entered deflation. India’s
hardened stance and failing military objectives on Ladakh have put Beijing on the
back foot. With its obdurate stance, China has literally opened up all fronts simultaneously.
China is hobbled by the festering border standoff, renewed tiffs with the
Philippines at the South China Sea (SCS) and unremitting military drills across
the Taiwan Straits. Prudently, cooling off tensions at Ladakh can be China’s
best bet with two leaders set to cross paths at the BRICS summit and the G20
Summit. Though China’s feeler in terms of easing temporary visa rules for India
is a positive development, as of now there is no clarity over the Modi-Xi
bilateral.
Expected to
be attended by over 60 world leaders, the 2023 BRICS summit is grabbing the
headlines for its gambit of expansion and its impact on the geopolitical realm.
But as PM Modi embarks for South Africa, India is harping on a breakthrough on
the LAC standoff.
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