What does the Rise of Taliban 2.0 mean for the rest of the World?

 The stunning fall of Kabul into Taliban’s hands has left the World flabbergasted. Buying into the American intelligence predictions which declared Taliban will take months to capture Kabul and the latest report that gave four weeks hold out time, World believed that Kabul can withstand. But the striking visuals of Taliban occupying the Presidential palace has alarmed countries. The pace of Kabul seizure stunned many countries and forced them to advance evacuation operations.

In little over a week, Taliban occupied over 13 provincial capitals. With thousands of Afghan security forces voluntarily surrendering to the Taliban, in absence of any resistance, Taliban entered Kabul and triggered the departure of President Ashraf Ghani.

Presidential office, later confirmed that Ghani left Kabul to avoid bloodshed. In the meanwhile, a section of media portrayed this astounding turn of events as a “bloodless coup” and lent a despicable “legitimacy” to this takeover.

Clearly, the Taliban must have struck deals with the local landlords and various resistant forces to advance their march towards Kabul. However, it is beyond the logical understanding that US intelligence which has been in the region for 20 years failed to get a hint of it.

Taliban 2.0

Even before the World could assess the impact of this sudden change, visuals of the plight of Afghan civilians trying to flee the country by even latching onto the wheels of a commercial flight hogged the limelight.

Along the same time, the sudden emergence of a new crop of social media activists hailing the Taliban as “sons of soil”, exonerating them of their atrocities against women by drawing parallels to the crime rate against women in Western countries and non-existent Hindu terror, the exultation over return of Taliban to power and the new obsession to justify Sharia as being cool reeked of an assiduous attempt to whitewash the brutalities of the Taliban.

This kind of discourse in conjunction with the Taliban’s new trend of addressing press conferences including an Israeli media, seems to be a novel effort to give the Taliban a face lift. Unmissably this new coverup, displayed all the characteristics of signature style of orchestrated campaigns launched to deliberately implant a narrative.

Additionally, through subtle assurances of peace and amnesty, proclamations that women would be guaranteed rights as permitted under the Muslim law, which in itself is a smart way of indicating imposition of Sharia, Taliban unveiled their new moderate avatar before the World.

But buried deep inside this new makeover efforts are the videos of Taliban intimidating Indians, a large contingent of 200 security agency employees were held as hostage. The abduction of female mayor of Afghanistan Zarifa Ghafari topples the façade of Taliban’s image makeover.

Also, in contrast to friendly media portrayal of everything is under control, India and other countries are experiencing great difficulties to evacuate its citizens and embassy employees. India sought the help of local assets to drive the contingent through 15 odd check posts managed by Taliban to reach the airport. In the aftermath of the civilians flooding the tarmac of Kabul airport, India stationed C-17 flight at Ayni airbase in Tajikistan.

Similarly, as opposed to the promises of not allowing terrorists a base in Afghanistan and amnesty to Afghan workers who worked with US government, Taliban released several dreaded terrorists from prisons. They began summary execution of Afghans who earlier worked with western government conducting door to door search. Fresh reports suggest that LeT is manning borders in certain regions of Afghanistan.

Together, all these events inexorably point out the Taliban 2.0 which is made to appear as moderate is indeed no different from its earlier version. Clearly, they have packaged themselves well to suit the modern world.

Nations response to Taliban take over

On August 13th, representatives of 12 nations which include- US, Qatar, UN, China, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, UK, Germany, EU, India, Norway, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey at a regional conclave in Doha agreed that “they will not recognize any government that is imposed (on Afghanistan) through military force”.

But less than 24 hrs after Kabul fell to Taliban, China called on Taliban to “ensure smooth transition” of power and expressed willingness to “deepen friendly and cooperative relations” with Taliban. Making no secret of its elation, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan described the Taliban seizure of Afghanistan has, “broken the shackles of slavery” and endorsed the regime.

Forthcoming of Taliban’s return Russia stopped short of recognizing the regime. But stated, “the situation in Kabul now under the Taliban is better than it was under Ashraf Ghani”. Instructively, the embassies of China, Pakistan and Russia are still open in Kabul even as all nations have started evacuations.

 Iran cautiously welcomed Taliban. Qatar offered to facilitate peace talks and diplomatic evacuations. Bahrain has promised to initiate conversation about Afghanistan at GCC. Turkey which has pledged to security to Kabul airport is an active player in Afghanistan currently.

Among the European nations, UK took a strong position and voiced that nobody should bilaterally recognize Taliban. Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated, “we want a united position amongst all the like-minded as far as we can get one so that we do whatever we can to prevent Afghanistan lapsing back into being a breeding ground for terror”.

Germany opined that the fallout Afghanistan owing to the American pullback more to do with domestic politics is bound to have domino effect. In the wake of turmoil in Afghanistan, at the request of Norway and Estonia, as the President of UNSC, India summoned an urgent session, the second such session in a month.

India expressed great concern over the situation of the war-torn country and “hoped that there is an inclusive dispensation which represents all sections of Afghan society”. Indian representative Tirumurti emphasized, “if there is a zero tolerance for terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and it is ensured that the territory of Afghanistan is not used by terrorist groups to threaten or attack any other country, then Afghanistan’s neighbours and the region would feel safer”.

India which currently adopting wait and watch policy is the only country to have opened E-visa services to the Afghan citizens.

Geopolitical Dynamics

America’s incompetent and disorderly pullback of troops coupled with Biden’s statement of not regretting his decision has changed the geopolitical dynamics. Refusing to accept responsibility for a botched-up exit, he blamed everyone- his predecessors, previous administration, Afghan army for failing to put up resistance, except Taliban.

By exonerating Taliban of all culpability, Biden fundamentally undermined the basic objective of America’s mission in Afghanistan of War Against Terror (WAT). Trump’s Faustian bargain with Taliban that contradicted its global positions on democracy, human rights, gender equality, religious extremism and terrorism exposed America’s vacuous commitment to all expounded values.

The message is not lost on the World.  Above all, the fleeting retreat of the American troops, meek surrender and self-righteous justification in consigning the country to terrorists has irrevocably tarnished its reputation as the Super power of free world.

America’s current ignominious withdrawal and blatant disregard to the implications of the same on the region has eroded its credibility especially in Asia. This has advanced its much-touted terminal decline. America’s exit has left a huge global vacuum which Beijing is more than eager to occupy.

The huge mess in Afghanistan exemplified specious nature of so called free world which America advocates. Since the turn of this century, China made no secret of carving an alternate World order and challenging the West’s rules-based World order. America’s retrenchment in the recent past has strengthened its resolve. The disastrous exit of America has impaled the ethos of a democratic (free world) world order.

America’s bungling exit has only stratified its infamous record of dumping allies. Afghan government is the new entrant to the list which continues to grow. Credibility loss, is going to hurt America’s foreign policy that seeks to counter Chinese expansionism. Together, American intelligence monumental failure in assessing Kabul’s fall despite 20 years boots on ground could be hard to contend with.

Even as analysts, defend America’s exit from Afghanistan is to focus on Indo-Pacific which is the arena of global contestations, it defies all logic. Having vanquished its credibility by throwing an ally under the bus, prospective American partners in the region will be forced to rethink about their strategic ties.

Quick to gauge America’s strategy, after Taliban took over Kabul, PLA’s eastern command ordered live fire drills close to Taiwan island as an indirect message to the leadership. The Global Times, openly taunted Taiwan for depending on an unreliable and untrustworthy ally. The images of America airlifting its stranded diplomats from Kabul embassy reminding frenzied evacuation from Saigon in 1975 has only symbolized America’s perfidy.

Doubling down on strategic engagements with countries in the Indo-Pacific, Biden has marshalled his diplomats to the region to mobilise a counter-coalition against China. However, America’s watershed moment in Afghanistan has successfully watered down all these efforts. On the contrary, America’s humiliation and self-defeat has buttressed China’s alternate totalitarian world order. The nascent friendly ties of China with authoritarian regimes like Pakistan, Turkey, Russia and Iran are bound to receive a fresh shot in arm.

By welcoming Taliban’s takeover and announcing friendly ties and extracting assurances to not shelter Uyghur separatists and attack its assets in the region, China has stabilized its position.

Tamely accepting the Taliban’s commitment of not undertaking terrorist attacks against US and its allies under Doha treaty, US ignored interests of India. India has been at the receiving end of Taliban-ISI nexus since 1980s. Pakistan is the patron-in-chief of Taliban and the latter actively collaborated with its master to target India. Afghanistan under resurgent Taliban could turn into breeding ground of terrorists ground can pose a major threat to India’s internal security.

India’s Options

Expressing disappointment over America’s disorderly exit, EAM Jaishankar clarified that India position on Afghanistan is different from America. India viewed America’s ties with Pakistan to leverage Taliban with an iota of mistrust and skepticism. 

With America’s exit nearly complete, veritable Pakistan-China nexus bound to intensify its boxing strategy of India, India is now exploring new options. As a message to the West, Russia would eventually recognize Taliban. India has doubled its outreach to Iran. Jaishankar made two trips to Tehran within a month and the second one on the eve of President Ebrahim Raisi’s oath-taking ceremony was quite significant. New Delhi has also increased engagement with Central Asian Republics (CAR). Jaishankar recently visited Uzbekistan and Tajikistan for the Regional Connectivity conference and SCO Foreign Ministers conference respectively. Saudi Arabia and UAE only two countries to have recognized Taliban 1.0 besides Pakistan are now quiet. India currently enjoys strong strategic ties with both of them.

Taliban return culminating in emergence of a mini-caliphate has invariably scripted a new dimension in geopolitics. Rise of medieval, ultra-conservative, jihadist regimes and their eventual legitimization by super powers for their interests is bound to have inimical consequences. Mainstreaming of the terrorist regimes and their eventual acceptability is set to embolden extremist outfits across the globe. As has been the case, the absence of sanctions and damning retributions on the state-sponsors of terror and their eventual co-option is posing a major threat to regional security. Take over the state by terrorist groups aside increasing the risk of state assets, finances including strategic weapons falling into hands of rogue elements will compound threats to their adversaries.

Most importantly, Taliban resurgence accentuated the limitations of military to deal an ideology. It is time, twin weapons of global isolation and sanctions regime must be employed against the terror groups and their patrons to remedy the world from the ideology driven scourge.

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The Idea of India @75

Amidst massive upheavals in the immediate neighbourhood and stirring domestic incongruencies, India is all set to celebrate the 75^th year of Independence. Even as the tremors of the external uncertainties and domestic political rumblings has put the nation to a crucial test, the usual murmurs about the fate of India have begun to surface.

Over the past seven decades, India bore the brunt of numerous travesties and weathered them with elan and poise. Despite the assumptions of portending disasters of an eventual fall owing to a calamitous partition, the deep scars and trauma in the aftermath of the independence, India proved the World wrong and steadily rose to its feet.

Instructively, notwithstanding the perennial anti-India propaganda and orchestrations of a discourse inimical to national harmony which have become more shriller with every passing day, the Idea of India seems to be growing in strength. India has been under a state of assault from 6^th century and the new mechanisations to undermine this Oldest Civilisation which is fighting back to assert its identity is witnessing a new trend.

A trend which led to crystallization of Indian society into an entitled class and the aspirational class. Since independence the entitled class, comprising a motley group of highly influential, well-connected with higher offices of power laid the path and framework for the country. Managing the discourse and producing deracinated generations of Indians, they sapped out the vitality of the nation. Taking over reigns from the White colonists the brown skinned, anglicized Indians derided the idea of India.

The harbinger of the hope in the form of rise of an aspirational class, desperately seeking to connect to the civilizational ethos, reassert their identities is inspiring confidence. Dispelling the dark shadows of disdain and frustrating the insidious attempts to widen the societal fissures the new aspirational class is marching ahead and leading the way for progress.

Revving up attempts to explore the history gaslighted by the elite class, demonstrating a new pragmatism of reviving our culture, tradition and culture, the aspirational class is reigniting the passion to connect to roots. This renewed outlook and approach of the new tribe who identify themselves as Dharmics are reinforcing and bolstering the idea of India. Disapproving the pessimistic portrayal of India, the sense of pride infused by this new tribe is turning out be the oxygen catalyzing the wheels of civilizational, societal and economic growth of the country.

Throwing spanner into works of vested interests trying to defend every act of bigotry, hypocrisy, betrayal and defection under the banner of secularism, the new tribe is debilitating the break-India forces. This characteristic aplomb in challenging the warped and blinkered narrative by the aspirational class slowly and steadily is inculcating a new pragmatism about our identity, squelching the servility.

In the run up to the Independence Day when the national contours are etched by the despicable hooliganism and a rare political unanimity to exacerbate the societal differences, the news of the Indian unicorns becoming a guiding light for our economy is suffusing new momentum. Instead of ducking or lying low, refused to be pushed into a corner, India is assiduously coming up with new ideas to circumvent emergencies and threats.

Emergence of sudden urge to rediscover our civilizational values spurring a new renaissance has started to take shape now.  Sri Aurobindo said, “Nations, like individual men, cannot evolve to their fullest potential as long as the swadharma is not able to express itself freely in the collective life”. Clearly, it is time to look inwards to rediscover our own strengths and secure our national interests.

 As a nation, India has made lot of progress. India is currently the fifth largest economy in terms of GDP. Though India’s plans of becoming a $5 trillion economy are torpedoed by the pandemic, after an initial slump, economy is showing signs of recovery recording high FDI flows. Caught unawares initially, India quickly checkmated Chinese incursions during Covid. Enduring the long-drawn peace negotiations with the Dragon, India is working towards reducing tensions at LAC. While the real test for India now seems to be the tumultuous Afghanistan, India in the recent past has resolutely upheld its national interests in foreign policy.

Truly, even as intellectuals and the entitled class is whining about the idea of India, India @75 is more optimistic of its rise than ever.

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Bronze Medal for Men’s Hockey marks the rise of a new cult of achievers

Nothing succeeds like success and the winning statement has a magical influence. The ecstasy that helmed the country with Indian Men’s Hockey team victory has not been just about the podium finish. The colour of the metal is incidental since it wasn’t about wining laurels. But by making a mark India has inched closer towards reclaiming its pristine glory. The win has rekindled new hope and strengthened their resolve. It shattered the burden of failures and bestowed new spirit and enthusiasm.

Clearly, at a time, when the nation is finding reasons to be distraught and worried, the Olympics has rightly forced the sports buffs and enthusiasts to find a reason to revel and celebrate the perseverance, grit and determination of ordinary Indians. With their winning habits, the new genre of sports icons is emerging as symbols of hope and inspiration. Undeterred by hardships, financial constraints and dire poverty, raising from humble origins the new breed of Indian sport stars are re-writing rules of success and scripting history.

Marching ahead with the mantra of self-belief, the gritty new champions of are now a source of inspiration for the aspirational Indians who are looking for contemporary heroes. These sports icons with their stupendous feats are changing the definition of heroes, who are usually portrayed as people with super natural powers. These ordinary Indians, often next-door neighbours hailing from non-descript locales reaching scaling the highest peaks with their hard working are now the embodiments of success.

Demography is India’s real asset. Stories of collective achievement will go a long way in inculcating a positive spirit. The multiplier effect of this positive influence will prompt youngsters to dream big and make conscious efforts to achieve them. These real time triumphs, breaking of barriers and creating new landmarks will essentially drive teeming younger generation into action.

The extraordinary achievements of ordinary men and women go a long way in inspiring the nation of over billion people. It is in this context, a podium finish by the Indian Hockey team will forever will reckoned as stupendous achievement.

The team efforts especially have a special way of binding people and celebrating the power of working together as a collective unit. Reckoned as a chaotic society and dominated by disparate voices, identities India always had more reasons to be divided than to build on their commonalities.

Crumbling under pressure, for ages Indian sportsperson despite their hard work failed to make it to the finish line. The drag of wavering self-belief has hindered their capacities to unleash their full potential.

Hockey bronze has broken that trail of disappointments and infused a new confidence. Similar to the Indian Cricket’s 2011 World Cup water shed movement which rejuvenated the spirits of youngsters and ushered them into winning ways, the Olympic podium finish would suffuse hockey players.

Hockey has been integral to Indian lives. It has special significance in India’s sports arena. Replete of ups and downs, the Indian Hockey history is truly inspiring story. Worth contemplating and emulating the lessons.

With an unparalleled record of wining eight gold medals in Hockey and scoring the most number of goals in Olympics, the Indian team struggled for over four decades to win a medal. India’s bronze at Tokyo is their third medal. Being pioneers of field hockey, India lost the inherent advantage of excelling in this sport which has been a way of live for people with the introduction of Astroturf surfaces. India struggled to play the game on the hard surface. European countries prevailed and turned around the contour of the field hockey by introducing hard surface, where technique had little role to play but benefitted the brute force and stamina.

Accustomed to a dribbling game on grass surfaces Indian players experienced difficulties in displaying technique and skill on hard surfaces due to setting in of fatigue and physical exhaustion. Nearly all the major tournaments are held on hard surfaces. This has really hurt the fortunes of Indian hockey.

Poor resource allocation to sports in general, lack of the sophisticated training facilities and Astro turf surfaces in general plagued the game. From failing to qualify in 2008 Beijing Olympics to making it to a podium finish in 2020 Tokyo Olympics, Indian Hockey witnessed a major turnaround.

In 2018, when Sahara backed out from sponsoring both Men’s and Women’s hockey, for the first time a state government, Odisha signed a Rs 100 Crore deal with Hockey India for next five years. Besides building the needing infrastructure, hosting the Men’s Hockey World Championships and sponsoring Kalinga Lancers, the state has turned into cradle of hockey, grooming the next generation of players.

Overcoming the stumbling blocks of poor training facilities, insufficient government, nepotism and corruption, current generation of Indian sportsperson are wining World championships and other international tournaments announcing their arrival on the World stage.

Fervently praying for the victory of Indian Women’s Hockey team in the Bronze Medal match, here is my tribute to the new tribe of achievers…

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China senses a strategic opportunity in Afghanistan

America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan has created a geo-political vacuum. It has opened up an arena for the regional powers to manage the scenario of post-American retreat. Cognizant of the implications and the regional powers have girded up loins through proactive engagement with Afghan Taliban which claims to be in control of 85% of the territory.

A speedy American withdrawal has exposed the sham of “great war on terror” and accentuated Beijing’s strong conviction that US is in terminal decline. Among others, Beijing is sensing an opportunity to expand its strategic base in this region. For long, China has operated in Afghanistan through its proxy Pakistan. Officially expressing its keen interests culminating with America’s retrenchment from Afghanistan, Foreign Minister ahead of the SCO Foreign Ministers meet and Afghan Contact Group meeting announced, “China’s consistent position on the Afghan issue is to respect Afghanistan’s historical and current conditions and to help but not interfere, which is also what separates China from the US and makes China a mediator or a “guarantor of security” in the region”.

Russian ambassador rightly pointed that the civil war in Afghanistan has been reason behind formation of SCO, “One should not forget that the SCO emerged as a response to immediate threats of terrorism and drug trafficking, which came from Afghanistan in the late 1990s. The SCO idea was born from a collective demand for a regional coalition to combat them”

It is a bizarre irony to even believe that China wouldn’t interfere, given the political influence it wields over political regimes in the region. Indubitably, at a time when China is no longer hiding its global ambitions, Beijing is engaging with both Taliban and the Afghan government to secure their support for CPEC and rope in the country officially into BRI for seamless transport of goods to Eurasia.

China has a three-pronged approach for Afghanistan- backchannel communication through Pakistan, SCO platform and positioning as mediator (hosting Taliban, Heart of Asia Summit and holding Intra-Afghan talks).

Cognisant of Taliban’s close links with ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement), China initially supported UN’s sanctions on the group.  But driven by economic factors and security concerns, when Taliban took to reigns, China forged ties with the terrorist group despite its perceived threat from Islamic extremism. To foster economic ties, in 1999 Chinese officials flew to Afghanistan to secure meeting with Mullah Omar; started flights between Kabul and Urumqi and forged economic ties.

In 2000, China’s ambassador to Pakistan Liu extracted assurances from Mullah Omar to not allow anyone to use its territory for any anti-Chinese activity. In return Omar demanded two things from China-formal recognition and protection against sanctions. But the deal failed. While Omar restrained ETIM, he failed to expel them and China in turn didn’t oppose sanctions at UN but abstained from voting. Neither of the parties fulfilled their promises.

Indeed, on September 11^th 2001, China and Taliban signed MoU to enhance economic ties. Things changed after the 9/11 event China supported US’s war on terror and Taliban and its ties took a back seat. However, China managed to obtained concessions from Taliban to disallow any attacks on its investments in Afghanistan.

Pakistan and China were the only two countries that maintained ties with Taliban after 9/11. Reportedly, Beijing held meetings with this group at Chinese controlled Saindak mikes in Pakistan. After Obama administration announced plans of withdrawing in 2014, China increased involvement in Afghanistan.

China conducted Heart of Asia summit at Beijing in 2014, supported the Pakistan hosted Murree talks for Afghan reconciliation and a political settlement through the Quadrilateral Coordination Group with US, Pakistan, Afghanistan. Took part in Kabul process convened by Ghani in 2017, talks at Moscow in 2018 and hosted a trilateral dialogue with Afghanistan and Pakistan in September 2019. Xi resuscitated Afghanistan Contact Group of SCO. In 2019, China hosted Mullah Abdul Baradar and conducted intra-Afghan talks in 2020.

At the trilateral of the foreign ministers in 2019, countries agreed to extend the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan by connecting Peshawar with Kabul. Unlike other countries, China has hedged its bets on major stakeholders of Afghanistan- Taliban (its covert masters Pakistan) and Afghan government. In the pursuit of economic opportunities, exploration of natural resources and military support, President Ashraf Ghani started wooing China. But with US forces still stationed in the country, Ghani refrained from officially acceding to any framework.

China enjoys greater advantage than the West in terms of general acceptance by Afghans as such. West is considered an adversary, whereas China is still coveted as power capable of playing a significant role in peace talks and mediation. But the deep Sino-Pakistan relations cast an aspersion on China’s real intentions. China’s overemphasis on Pakistan is objected by anti-Pakistan forces and Afghan government.

Taliban also considers China as a crucial source of investment and economic support. In fact, in 2007, Beijing managed to potentially secure a lucrative concession from Taliban to prevent any attacks on its projects which included Aynak copper mine. Taliban’s support is crucial for the vast number of projects operating under CPEC and for any fresh strategic investments in the country. But the continued violence and Taliban’s links with ETIM are still a cause of concern for China.

To assuage the concerns of China, Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen announced, “we care about the oppression of Muslims, be it in Palestine, in Myanmar, or in China, and we care about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the World. But what we are not going to do is interfere in China’s internal affairs”, thus staying clear of the raging Uighur human rights debate. Eager to seek China’s acquiescence to their rule, Taliban is striking a fine line of maintaining the balance between its commitment to Islamic ideology and the political ambitions.

Last year it pledged to not to let Afghan territory to be used for terror activities against any country including China. These fresh guarantees reminiscent of the past assurances in 2001 has laid foundation for China’s first major public engagement with Taliban.

Days after US abandoned Bagram airbase, Taliban’s resumed brutal killings and medieval Sharia practices made a comeback. Against Taliban’s famed record of reneging on promises, arguing, “making enemy of the Taliban was not in China’s interest” Beijing welcomed Taliban delegation at Tianjin. This engagement is an extension of a meeting between foreign ministers of Pakistan and China on June 24 who vowed to “bring Taliban to the mainstream”.

Reiterating China’s stance, The Global Times, the CCP mouthpiece described Taliban as “an important militant and political force”. By bestowing legitimacy to a terrorist group and lending acceptability, China typically bolstered the popular perception of inexorably siding with terror perpetrators and patronisers to secure its interests.

For decades, China shielded Pakistan from international censure for its terror activities, UN sanctions against its terror organisations and prevented it from getting black listed by FATF.  By extending similar concessions and paybacks in lieu of reining on ETIM and attacks against its interests in Afghanistan, Beijing meant business. Even as it continues to defend the internment of over 1.5 million Uighurs over terror threats, it refuses to acknowledge the implications of mainstreaming a terror outfit.

By acknowledging the terror outfit as stakeholders in Afghan peace, China has emboldened the terror organisations across the World, who would now brazenly continue to unleash their brutality to leverage a Faustian bargain. US lend credibility by striking peace deal with Taliban and failing to inflict any punishment for breaking it. China is taking to the next level to secure its interests.

Taliban pledged to realise peace, protect human rights and interests of women and children in China. But on ground realities are in sharp contrast to the affirmations of Taliban. For China, denial of Uighur sanctuaries in Afghanistan is precondition for engagement with Taliban. Reiterating Beijing’s concerns Wang Yi said, “ETIM is an international terrorist organisation listed by the UNSC which poses a direct threat to China’s national security and territorial integrity. Cracking down on ETIM is the shared responsibility of the international community”.

Beijing exhorts that restraining ETIM is shared responsibility of international community. But fails to extend similar courtesy to India which has at the receiving end of Pakistan’s cross border terror and wary of resurgence of Taliban, which can turn Afghanistan into a breeding zone of terror outfits.

ETIM and its successor Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) has close connections with Osama bin Laden dating back to 2001. While a majority of Uighur militants have moved to Syria a recent UNSC report claims that around 500 of them are operating in the Badakshan province. With the evacuation of foreign troops from Afghanistan, the Uighur militants are planning to return to Afghanistan from Syria.

Wakhan corridor in Badakshan province of Afghanistan which is taken over by Taliban shares a 76km porous border with China opens into Xinjiang province. Re-emergence of Taliban has stirred concerns in China of a plausible infiltration of Uighur seperatists advocating for an independent East Turkestan (Xinjiang). Beijing has beefed up security at the Wakhan border, Afghan-Tajik post, Pakistan administered Kashmir deploying its personnel to forestall any infiltration.

China which has always condoned terror is beset by a strange paradox. Beijing finds a huge scope for expansion in the aftermath of huge void left by American withdrawal in the region. By virtue of iron clad friendship with masters of Taliban and massive economic investments across entire Central Asia, China emerged as the dominant power in the region. By virtue of its burgeoning clout, China seeks to penetrate Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Terror attacks in Pakistan increased in the aftermath of Taliban resurgence. Nine Chinese dam engineered were killed in a terror attack in North Pakistan and a Chinese citizen was shot in Karachi recently.  These attacks have sparked concerns of safety and security of Chinese personnel and investments in the region.

Though Taliban has pledged to severe ties with other terror outfits, latest UN report and the aggressive offensive indicates otherwise. 12 designated terror outfits are reported to have joined Taliban war -LeT, JeM, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Jamaat-ul-Arhar, Lashkar-e-Islam, and Al-Badr were spotted to be fighting alongside Taliban which is in gross violation of 2020 peace treaty.

For decades, China has tamed the mothership of terror, Pakistan for its strategic ambitions. With Taliban-dominated Afghanistan a plausible reality, China dangled carrots to woo it. Tensions due to terrorism would continue to exist. Given the decades of all-weather friendship, Beijing is hopeful of managing the Taliban. But Taliban is not Pakistan and a lot depends on whether Taliban could wrest its control over entire Afghanistan.

Amid China’s overt Taliban outreach, critics lament India has lost Afghanistan. On the contrary, over the past two decades, India has implemented developmental and capacity building projects in 34 provinces of Afghanistan and its nimble-footed efforts in Afghan rebuilding are well received. Aside the massive connectivity exercise through Chahbahar, India recently signed a MoU with Afghanistan for Shahtoot dam construction and called for a quadrilateral working group on the use of Chahbahar port with Uzbekistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Ramping up parleys with regional partners, India is in regular touch with all stakeholders of Afghanistan.

Given Taliban’s gains, strategists are predicting the fall of Afghanistan. But all is not over yet until everything is over. The game is still on.

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Xi’s trip to Tibet invariably ignited the “great-power competition”

 With no signs of breaking the prolonged stalemate over disengagement of troops and Beijing’s unabated nibbling of Bhutan territory to position threateningly close to the chicken neck of India, New Delhi deployed 50,000 additional troops across LAC.

Days later spewing nationalism, the Dragon sent out a fierce message to the World on the eve of CCP Centenary celebrations. Hitting out at the adversaries, President Xi at centenary CCP speech warned, any attempts to subjugate the country would result in “heads bashed bloody against a Great Wall of Steel”. The remark which didn’t figure in the Chinese government’s softened English translation resurfaced in the actual translation exposing the true intentions of China.

Arguably, China which pitched for delinking the border issues with the bilateral ties with India officials had no qualms in sending its uncompromising stance on issues of national interest to the World and expects New Delhi to continue with business as usual.

China’s stealthy intrusion across the LAC when India was distracted by the Covid lockdown hasn’t gone down well with India. The prolonged standoff, 15 months long has turned LAC into a hot zone. Refusing to restore status quo ante, planning to push LAC west, Beijing began amassing troops and erecting shelters in contravention to mutual agreements. Eruption of violence has only exacerbated tensions and deepened mistrust. Consequently, Tibet became the focus area for China.

A month into the standoff, China issued third White paper on Tibet commemorating the 71^st year of signing of 17-point agreement between Lhasa and Beijing. The Whitepaper had important aspects- firstly, having tight- leash on the succession process of the Dalai Lama and sinicizing of Tibetan Buddhism. The third unspoken aspect was based on Xi’s observation at the National People’s Congress in 2013, “to govern the country well we must first govern the frontiers well, and to govern the frontiers well we must first ensure stability in Tibet”.

Accordingly, Beijing gave renewed push to its Border Villages Program, akin to salami slicing of South China Sea (SCS), where civilian settlements are built along disputed border to reinforce its claims. These villages besides serving as eyes and ears for the PLA would alter the demography of the region. Satellite images spotted one such village close to Arunachal border, the region which China calls as Southern Tibet.

Analysts later alluded that China is on a village building spree along the strategic borders with Nepal, Bhutan and India. Taking objection to India’s rapid infrastructure development projects along the LAC, China has ramped up connectivity to Tibetan plateau.

With a focus on Tibet at the 7^th Tibetan Forum, held on August 29^th, 2020 Beijing called for immediate fortification the roof of the World into a fortress. In a bid to safeguard the border and facilitate delivery of strategic goods during crises, China expedited border infrastructure connectivity plans. Accordingly, China unveiled a bullet train connecting the capital Lhasa to Nyingchi, 17 km from Arunachal Pradesh border days ahead to CCP centenary.

Galwan incident and India’s occupation of strategic Kailash Heights exemplified the combat prowess of Indian Army and left an indelible mark on PLA.  Special Frontier Force (SFF), a regiment comprising majorly of Tibetan commandos of Indian Army meticulously executed this operation.  While Chinese conscripts struggled to acclimatize and guard the icy peaks along the LAC, influenced by the sturdiness of Tibetans in exile serving the Indian Army, China initiated induction of Tibetans into PLA and Special Tibetan Army unit (STAU). Reportedly coercive drives are underway making its mandatory for each family to send at least one person for recruitment especially in Ngari prefecture.

The massive induction is unlikely to yield any results relationship between the Hans and Tibetans is marred by trust deficit.  Besides a statement by Dalai Lama extending support to India can force Tibetans to desert PLA.

Gearing up to take on India, China is slowly converting the temporary structures into permanent positions and upgrading the airbases along the Indo-Tibetan border. Fighter and bombers are now moved to the airbases in Tibet-Hotan, Kashgar, Gargunsa, Lhasa-Gonggar and Shigatse. Needless to say, all these developments, leave no iota of doubt that China is no mood for de-escalation.

Annexing Tibet, China has become India’s neighbour. Beijing started using Tibet as launch pad for its territorial incursions. The prolonged 15-month long standoff has tested India’s “strategic patience”. With Beijing relentlessly needling India’s affairs through Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Maldives, India which has sheltered the Dalai Lama for over 60 years shedding diffidence played the Tibet card. Tibet is at the heart of India China dispute. PM Modi for the first time since 2014, greeted Dalai Lama on his birthday on July 6^th and tweeted about his telephonic conversation.

Since 2008 there has been slight shift in India’s Tibet policy. In 2014, Modi invited Head of Central Tibetan Administration (CTA), Lobsang Sangay to his inauguration and allowed the Dalai Lama to visit Tawang in 2017 and Sangay to unfurl Tibetan flag at Pangong Tso. Post-Doklam, adhering to Wuhan Consensus, Modi softened India’s stand and asked officials to avoid participating in events on the eve of 60 years of Dalai Lama’s arrival in India. But the current stand-off frayed the ties. 

Modi’s tweet has been India’s way of reminding China of its support to the Dalai Lama and his right to appoint a successor. Principle of reincarnation and Dalai Lama succession are of immense importance to China. Beijing is making aggressive moves to scuttle the process and appoint its lackey as the 15^th Dalai Lama to crush the Tibetan resistance for eternity.

As a message to China, India allowed Tibetans to celebrate the Dalai Lama birthday this year in the areas adjoining LAC, U-bend of Indus River and Ladakh. In response to these festivities, the PLA soldiers posted close to LAC displayed a red banner protesting the event.

Ever since animosities between China and the US escalated, America has changed its position towards Tibet. In November 2020, CTA head Lobsang was invited to the White House and in December 2020, US passed Tibetan Policy and Support Act stating that Dalai Lama is the final authority on his own reincarnation and succession and mooted establishment of US consulate at Lhasa. Exercising firm control, China continues to restrict the movement of foreign in Tibet. Expressing serious concerns over this legislation, US imposed restrictions on Chinese visitors to America under the “reciprocal act of 2018”. Trump administration’s support to Tibetan cause and the new act has riled up China.

Tibet and India shared strong cultural, religious and trade links and after its invasion in 1959, by offering refuge to the 14^th Dalai Lama and 17^th Karmapa, India emerged the centre of Tibetan Buddhism. India’s close links with Tibet is cause of heartburn for China which believes that New Delhi can weaken its hold on Tibet. In 1965, China renamed Tibet as Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) and India recognized TAR as part of China in 2003. The promise of autonomy was a myth. On the contrary, to consolidate its power, China cracked down on any kind of revolt with heavy hand.

After Mao’s death, China attempted to make some amends to its Tibetan policy and initiated negotiations. Between 2002 to 2010 the Dalai Lama representatives and China’s United Work Front Department held ten rounds of talks with a clause that everything except independence is negotiable. But the talks collapsed and remained suspended.

China aspired to win over Tibet through development and political re-education. Ushering Socialism in this region, Beijing wanted to sinicise the Tibetan Buddhism. Believing that development would bring the region closer to mainland, Beijing launched the Western Development Campaign building new factories, roads, oil pipelines and necessary infrastructure. Under the garb of poverty alleviation China voraciously exploited the mineral wealth of the region and diverted waters from this water fount by building 11 dams and caused irreparable environmental degradation.

China’s development agenda for Tibet failed to cut ice. Coinciding with Beijing Olympics 2008, Tibetans revolted against the mainland. As a mark of support widespread protests for autonomy were carried out in Tibet, India, Nepal. In the next couple of years hundreds of Tibetans monks performed self-immolation opposing China’s control.

Though this uprising and China’s efforts to deracinate Tibetans failed to garner much attention as the Uighur detentions, post Tibetan revolt, China has hardened its stance. Under the Chairmanship of Xi, China denounced the Middle Way approach of Dalai Lama deemed it as splittism. Beijing categorically warned that the Dalai Lama should abandon the stance of independence and publicly announce that “Tibet has been integral part of China since antiquity”.

As a frontier region, Tibet is at the heart of China’s expansionist tool kit. Tibetan security is extremely pivotal for China’s India policy. Hence, signalling strong disapproval to Modi’s telephonic conversation with Dalai Lama, Xi visited Nyinchi in Tibet bordering Arunachal Pradesh on July 21-22. The last Chinese President to visit Tibet was Jiang Zemin in 1990. Xi last visited Tibet as vice-president a decade ago.

This visit which remained a state secret until video appeared on the social media Weibo, had glimpses of Xi receiving a warm welcome in Tibet. Accompanied by Zhou Youxia, vice-chairman of Central Military Commission and in charge of the peripheral regions, Claude Arpi writes Xi interacted with military commanders and soldiers stationed in Tibet. Xi visited the Nying River Bridge in Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin (Brahmaputra in India) and Nyang River its tributary. In November 2020, China announced the construction of dams along the Yarlung River to use the waters as a strategic weapon against India.

The downstream North Eastern region of India is extremely vulnerable to flooding from overflows of Yarlung river. Much against the warnings of building series of hydroelectric dams in this earthquake prone region which can put entire region in risk and cause environmental degradation China is going ahead with this project to threaten India.

During his visit, Xi was seen interacting with locals in Shaliuhe township, Bakhor, Bayi headquarters of security forces and intentionally rode back to Lhasa in the recently unveiled train to Nyngchi. Xi’s visit to the region is orchestrated demonstrate Tibetan acceptability of Han rule and to assert China’s complete control over the region.

Undoubtedly, Xi’s visit coming days after Modi’s telephone call to Dalai Lama and ahead of the US deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman’s visit to Tianjin for talks is an overt warning to India and the US.

Above all, Xi’s Nyngchi visit unequivocally demonstrated China’s hardened stance and a default prolonged stalemate in Indo-China talks over restoration of status quo ante. Perhaps, it might also be China’s way of hinting India of opening yet another front along the Arunachal border. Intending to put India in place, China stealthily intruded LAC. But shocked by India’s vigorous military response quick force deployment, China quickly ramped up defences and unwittingly entered a point of no return where an attempt to pull back will be deemed timorous.

With his pompous border visit, Xi has provoked India and foreclosed all attempts to backdown. By dictating terms and outlining demands for engagement at Tianjin, China has inexorably miffed US. Paying back in its own coin, US Secretary for State, Anthony Blinken on his India visit, met the representative of CTA, Ngodup Dongchung.

China for long rued Indo-US strategic convergence. Xi’s Tibet trip and antagonistic posturing besides exemplifying its muscular revisionism has invariably ignited the “great-power competition” and paving way for deepening of Indo-US partnership and strategic cooperation.

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A Sneak Peek into EAM Jaishankar’s Globetrotting: Changing Indian Foreign Policy Contour

Amid the widespread lament of India missing the bus in the context of Taliban surge and its consequent repercussions on Indian interests, the proactive diplomatic outreach spear-headed by EAM Jaishankar should offer a fresh glimpse into India’s changing foreign policy contours.

Loomed by rising global instabilities, strident US-China rivalry, plausible meltdown in Afghanistan, the palpable fear of return to a bipolar world and eventual Cold war scenario, India has intensified diplomatic parleys with various regional actors. Devastating pandemic exposed the failures of multilateralism and the assertive territorial expansionism of China has underscored the need for a collectivism and new partnerships for regional peace and stability.

Championing a free and open Indo-Pacific and a multipolar World, EAM Jaishankar embarked on a massive outreach spree. Terming Wuhan virus pandemic as a “shared problem” and “global crisis”, India generously supplied medicines, assistance and Vaccines to various countries. Reciprocally, when India was overwhelmed by second wave of the pandemic, countries pitched in to offer help. India gracefully accepted the foreign assistance as a part of “mutual assistance framework”.

In pursuit of securing Indian interests, especially energy security, EAM on his visit to Kuwait renewed energy cooperation. Kuwait is the seventh largest crude oil supplier of India after US replaced it from sixth position in 2015. In February Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) in talks with India and Japan announced that its is likely to shorten annual supplies to nine months to meet the demands from its new refinery. This came in the backdrop of Iraq, the largest oil supplies announcing supply cuts to India as per the quota limits set by OPEC.

During Kuwaiti Foreign Minister’s visit to India in March, aside discussing the energy, countries agreed to establish Joint Ministerial Commission (JMC) to steer the relationship2. Catering to Kuwait’s Covid emergency, India rushed a medical team, emergency food supplies and supplied Covishield vaccines as well. In turn, when India battled tragic covid wave, Kuwait ensured reliable supply of liquid medical oxygen by establishing a Sea Bridge. EAM on his Kuwait visit on the eve of 60 years of diplomatic ties carried a personal letter of PM Modi to the Emir. He laid firm ground for new JMC that envisaged cooperation in hydrocarbons, manpower, mobility, health care, trade & investments, defence & security, finalized and signed a MoU bringing the Indian domestic workers under legal framework.

Reports of China’s plans to establish a second military base in Africa at Bagomoya in Tanzania, the first one being Djibouti in 2017 propelled global powers- US, Japan and Russia to expand foot print in Africa. With a focus on stability and security in the Western Indian Ocean under the ambit of Indo-Pacific policy, keen on expanding bilateral cooperation with strategic partner, Kenya EAM made a three-day visit. Kenya is a key stakeholder in determining the geopolitics of Western Indian Ocean.

Co-Chairing 3rd, India-Kenya Joint Commission Meeting, recognizing Kenya’s Big Four Agenda on Manufacturing, Affordable Housing, Food Security and Health, EAM underlined India’s interest to partner in these areas. He reiterated India’s commitment to South-South Cooperation ahead of India-Africa Forum Summit-IV this year.

Enroute his two-country visit and on his way back home, EAM made a stopover at Doha. During his two visits to Qatar in a week, EAM met the NSA and Foreign Minister of Qatar. The stopover is considered significant since Doha has been the venue for peace talks between the Afghan government and Taliban. Expedited pullback of American troops and consequent Taliban’s territorial gains have huge implications on immediate neighbourhood and rightly so, the timing of visit triggered speculations of India opening communication channels with Taliban.

Without dropping too many hits, MEA announced that India is in contact with various stakeholders in Afghanistan and added that EAM and his Qatari counterpart discussed Covid support, global and regional security issues and bilateral cooperation3. It is no secret that Qatar enjoys Taliban’s confidence and Doha-based Shura is known to be calling shots in Kabul. Given the close links, EAM’s act of touching base has great strategic significance.

Peace in Afghanistan is crucial to regional stability. Resurgence of Taliban akin to 1990s besides increasing the strategic depth of Pakistan can have a direct impact on J&K and India’s investments worth $3billion in the country. Against the criticisms of India being late in the gate, exploring the old convergences India renewed discussions with Iran and Russia. EAM travelled to both countries which have sizeable influence over Taliban. Iran sheltered Osama bin Laden to build connections with Pashtun leadership and Pakistan facilitated Russia’s connection with Taliban.

Carrying the personal message of PM Modi, EAM sought private audience with the newly elected Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. He held long drawn conversations with counterpart Javad Jaraf and thanked him for holding two day long The Intra-Afghan Dialogue attended by Taliban delegation led by Sher Mohammed Abbas Stanekzai and Afghan Vice President Yunus Qanuni. Taliban delegation has released a six-point joint statement. Expectedly, though the talks failed to make any breakthrough, India agreed with Iran that intra-Afghan talks is the only way forward for peace in Afghanistan.

EAM attempted to resurrect the India-Iran-Russia triangle that backed Northern Alliance. While much is being read into EAM’s Tehran visit on his way to Moscow, back in September 2020 as well, EAM made a pitstop at Iran while traveling to Russia. Clearly, the focus of the visit has been Afghanistan. Taliban’s blistering attacks and rapid gains in the aftermath of US troop pull back generated fresh fears in Moscow for the Central Asian countries share porous borders with Afghanistan.

To allay Russian fears and assure that they wouldn’t violate the borders of Central Asian countries and guarantee security of their foreign personnel and embassies, Taliban delegation met Russian envoy Zamir Kubulov. Around the same time, EAM met Russian envoy Sergei Lavrov to prepare ground for Indo-Russian annual summit. He discussed inter regional cooperation particularly, Russian Far East, connectivity aspects, North-South Corridor, Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria and Libya.

Both countries affirmed their commitment to an independent, sovereign, united and democratic Afghanistan and believed that they should work together. Reluctant to take any military action, Russia wanted America to ensure the implementation of peace deal and believed that Afghan government isn’t doing enough.

Russia, a former superpower, reliant on its hydrocarbon and defence exports demonstrates an undiminished willingness to deploy military. Be it military action in 2008 against Georgia or annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its entry into Middle East through Syrian intervention and private militia in Libyan civilian war following America’s inconsistent policies Russia wants to play the great power game.

Deepening of Russia’s ties with China, announcement of renewal of Friendship treaty on the eve of CCP centenary, the emergence of the Indo-Pacific concept and the Quad have laid out bare the differing perspectives of India and Russia. Aside the Afghanistan issue, drawn towards China due to the West’s sanctions, Russia insisted on an Asia-Pacific concept. Seeking to address teething misunderstandings, delivering his speech on “India-Russia ties in a changing world” at Primakov Institute of World Economy EAM has presented India’s perspectives reiterating- “the undeniable reality of exceptional resilience of our ties is surely phenomenon worth analyzing”.

Stating that “the core of our contemporary relationship is the embrace of multi-polarity…. And that it rests on the foundation of a more democratic and diverse international order, one that is committed to sovereign equality of all states”, expressed strong disapproval of Chinese expansionism and upmanship, saying, “logically that a multi-polar world must have a multi-polar Asia is an essential constituent”.

Addressing Russian concerns of India’s growing proximity with the US, EAM explained the rationale of Indo-Pacific and suggested a way forward- “a world of convergence that the multi-polar and re-balanced international order has created will inevitably be different from the one what we were used to before. Quite obviously, it will be less structured and more fluid, leaving open the possibility of differences even among those who are together. The inclination would be to look at pragmatic and result-oriented cooperation on defined issues”.

Elucidating India’s choices, he said, “the operating principle of multi-polar world is the legitimate pursuit of flexibility without seeking exclusivity. After all, the latter is antithetical to the very logic of multi-polarity” and referred to New Delhi’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative for better understanding of India’s vision for Indo-Pacific.

Evincing strong interest to work together for a stable and diverse and international world order, Jaishankar, renewed ties with Russia. Adding a new dimension to the special and privileged strategic partnership, countries agreed to hold 2+2 Dialogue of Foreign and Defence Ministers.

EAM travelled to Georgia from Moscow before returning home. This evoked caustic responses with critics terming it as India’s reply to Sergei Lavrov’s attempted hyphenation of New Delhi with Islamabad. But seasoned diplomats quickly debunked it, saying Indo-Russian relations are beyond this kind of symbolism. The last Indian EAM to visit Georgia was Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1978. Jaishankar handed over the relics of Queen St. Ketevan and rejuvenated the strong historical connect.

At the Dushanbe SCO foreign ministers meet EAM backed Afghan-led and Afghan-owned solution and pitched for connectivity with Afghanistan via Chabahar port at Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity, Challenges and Opportunities conference in Uzbekistan.

Meeting the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani along the sidelines of the Connectivity conference, EAM assured him of India’s support for peace, stability and development in Afghanistan. Opening communication channels with various stakeholders of Afghanistan, India is resolutely working towards a peaceful solution.

After the Indo-EU summit, India revved up engagement with European countries. Unveiling a new chapter of ingenious diplomacy, EAM on his visit to Greece, the first by an Indian Foreign Minister in 18 years, started working towards establishing strategic partnership. India’s engagement with the European country thus far have been broadly cultural.

With the traditional Greco-Turkish rivalry spilling into the East Mediterranean Sea, Greece is keen on supporting India which is at odds with Pakistan, a close ally of Turkey. Similarly, the idea of using Greece to deal with Turkey is not lost on India. Greece served as launch pad for China to expand its global economic influence after Cosco obtained major stakes in Piraeus port, a strategic location between both Asian and European countries.

Post Covid even as Greece welcomed investments from China, it has aligned with India’s Free Indo-Pacific and rules-based order, signed the International Solar Alliance. India and Greece hold similar views in terms respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty and recognized threat from terrorism and radicalism.

Revisionist and aggressive policies of Turkey are posing threat to Greece. To counter the burgeoning hostile Turkey-Qatar alliance, Greece has developed strategic partnership with UAE. Given India’s strong strategic ties with UAE, Greece FM on his visit to Delhi proposed India-UAE-Greece trilateral. UAE and Greece are presenting their candidacy for UNSC non-permanent seat, a position India holds currently for 2024 and 2025. Greece needs India’s backing and in turn, Athens pledged to serve as bridge between New Delhi and EU.

Covid pandemic has inadvertently triggered a pushback against China. Shifting gears, Italy, the first G-7 nation to join BRI, openly criticized Beijing’s practices as “unfair” and called on EU to be bold in confronting China. Seeking to enter the Indo-Pacific geography, Italy evinced interest to enter into a trilateral partnership with India and Japan on the eve of EAM’s visit to Rome. Clearly, Europe’s embrace of Indo-Pacific underscores the rising recognition of the geopolitical significance of the region.

Wary of challenges posed by China’s aggressive policies, nations are now eager to join purpose-oriented partnerships. Owing to India’s growing centrality in the Indo-Pacific architecture and its strong affirmation to democratic, diverse and rules-based order, nations are seeking to partner with India.

Bogged down by reluctance and incongruent approaches, despite its strategic geographic location, historical and cultural connect with various nations, India failed to claim its position at high table. Through coordinated responses, proactive outreach and a strategically clear foreign policy India has coveted the responsible power status. Consequently, countries which share similar interests and values and facing similar challenges are seeking to partner with India.

The new streak of assertiveness and dynamism displayed by India in expanding horizons attests that Indian diplomacy has certainly come off the age.

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The Dangerous Predicament of Disruptive Politics

Debate in World’s largest democracy is slowly replaced by disruption. The Parliament, a hallowed platform for critical and constructive debate is turning into an arena of disruption. Revered as a towering encomium of structured debates that laid foundations for the country, the Parliament has now turned into a platform for hooliganism.

Hailed as conglomeration of greatest minds committed for the welfare of the country, the debates in Parliament used to be the trusted source for analysing the nitty-gritties of any proposed legislations from the houses of representatives. But over the years the quality of such rational thinking and the civilised behaviour expected of an iconic legislative body has shrunk.

Instead of respectable debates, the Parliament has become podium for heckling, choicest weapon for settling political scores. Devoid of decency and sane demeanour, besides setting the bad precedent the planned Parliamentary session is turning into notorious spectre of disruptive politics.

Ever since its ascent into power in 2014, the Modi government is accused of being “intolerant, fascist and vicious” by the opposition. But the unabated disruptive politicking ahead of every consecutive parliamentary session has left the common man thinking as who is the right fit for the above sobriquets.

Even before a parliamentary session could kick-in the entire ecosystem is set into motion to overwhelm the political realm with some conspiracy theory or the other. Leaving no space for debate, the media houses with its extensive reach are set into an overdrive of playing the role of an investigator, prosecutor as well as jury.

Interestingly, this cyclical repetition or in fact over use of this new trend of disruption is becoming more predictive. Bereft of productive discussions on issues of development, growth, welfare and progress the vicious underbelly of an intolerance towards the current dispensation is becoming more obvious now.

Despite the best efforts of the opposition to give these conspiracies hewn mostly in foreign countries a different name through its propaganda machinery, the ugly face of its origins and diabolical intentions are getting unravelled. The series of the tool kits designed to create chaos and generate disaffection towards the dispensation have only accentuated the inimical designs of the opposition.

Deconstruction of the unravelled toolkits in recent times has neatly exposed the links between the Indian political parties and their foreign offshore agencies. Rapid busting of a couple of tool kits in tandem in the recent past and their consequent attempts to create unrest in the country has created a doubt in common man about the new kind of politicking employed by the opposition. Bordering on doubt and distrust, the overuse of the foreign agencies for domestic politics has now bolstered the theory of plausible foreign conspiracies at play is taking seed in Indian minds.

Rightly so, just a day ahead of the Monsoon Session of the Parliament, the opposition raked up a spying row and accused government of hacking using the Israeli Pegasus spyware and sought a probe. The Wire first carried out a report stating that 40 Indian journalists are on hacking list of an unidentified agency using the Israeli spyware Pegasus. The list includes journalists at the Hindustan Times, The Hindu, The Wire, The Indian Express, News18, India Today etc.

Indeed, the basis of the report is that a consortium, Forbidden Stories, a non-profit Paris-based journalism and Amnesty International has access to a list of phone numbers living in countries believed to be clients of NSO group, an Israeli firm known for its spyware. These agencies have shared this info to some 15 international agencies. Forbidden Stories claims to have overseen the Pegasus report.

IT Minister Ashwin Vaishnaw on the floor of the Parliament reiterated, “In India there is a well-established procedure through which lawful interception of electronic communication is carried out for the purpose of national security, particularly on the occurrence of any public emergency or in the interest of public safety, by agencies at the centre and states. The request for this lawful interception of electronic communication is made as per relevant rules under the provisions of section 5(2) of Indian Telegraph Act, 1885 and section 69 of the Informational Technology Act, 2000. The procedure therefore ensures that any interception or monitoring of any information is done as per due process of law. The framework and institutions have withstood the test of time”.

He also debunked the charges of opposition by quoting the statement issued by NSO, the company which owns the spyware that the leaked data (released/disseminated) by HLR Lookup services, - “(is)openly available to anyone, anywhere and anytime and are commonly used by governmental agencies as well as by private companies worldwide. It is also beyond dispute that that data has nothing to do with surveillance or with NSO, so there can be no factual basis to suggest that a use of data somehow equates to surveillance”.

Moreover, the Wire Report, which has been the basis for opposition’s tirade against government has stated- “the presence of a number in the database indicates its likely selection as a target for surveillance but whether a phone was actually hacked and infected can only be established through forensic examination of the device”.

Meanwhile, a second tranche of list reported by The Wire included the names of Rahul Gandhi, Prashant Kishore, Abhishek Banerjee, Ashwin Vaishnaw, Prahlad Singh Patel (minister in Modi cabinet), Pravin Tagodia, staffer of former CJI Ranjan Gogoi and 300 others. Instructively, the opposition intensified its attack on government accusing it of using the Pegasus spyware to suppress dissent.

In the run up to 2019 Lok Sabha elections, opposition has stalled the Parliament on similar charges blaming the government of hacking anti-establishment leaders using Pegasus on Whatsapp. But Supreme Court categorically dismissed all these fictitious claims which had no factual basis. Even all the political parties accepted SC’s ruling. A repeat of similar episode before the onset of a new Parliamentary session can’t be a sheer coincidence.

Having just recovered from a Tsunami of Covid wave that has put country’s meagre resources under severe strain, it is duty of government and the elected leaders to evolve a framework to avert another Covid wave and ensure pandemic preparedness. Instead, the opposition has resorted to a ludicrous game plan of obstructing the functioning of the Parliament on the charges of infringement of right to privacy and the concomitant threat to democracy.

Seriously the charges of spying can’t be ignored.  The agencies have advised affected persons to submit their devices believed to be hacked for forensic examination to factually establish the claims. But instead of relying on the logical scientific investigation that can lend credence to their claims the opposition has resorting to disruption.

On the opening day of the session, Opposition through relentless sloganeering heckled the Prime Minister and interrupted the ‘customary’ introduction of new ministers of Cabinet. Similar ruckus was witnessed in both the Houses forcing an adjournment. According to reports, government proposed to discuss 31 bills during the 19-day long session.

Pegasus spying has snowballed into a massive row with political parties insisting on thorough investigation and resignation of Home Minister Amit Shah. Amid ruckus, both the houses of Parliament are adjourned till Thursday.

The spectacle of disruptive politicking is long past its sell by date now. Aspirational Indians are seeking solutions to put the country back on economic trajectory. By failing to contest an orchestrated propaganda to malign Indian institutions and democracy by the Western agencies especially since the turn of the year all for their hate for a single man, opposition has been complicit in bad mouthing of India.

Parliament session has been an opportunity to assert their commitment to nation. But instead of pulling up the government for glaring lacunae, the inconsistencies in delivery and policies that compounded the Covid crisis, by disapproving a debate, they have abdicated their duties as people’s representatives. They have undermined the Parliamentary Democracy.

While the charges of government posing threat to democracy by throttling dissent remains to be established, by hampering the functioning of the Parliament the opposition has certainly brought the Indian democracy to a dangerous precipice.

In their obsession to stay relevant in the political realm through disruption, the political parties are furthering their descent into abyss of irrelevance.

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