The stunning fall of Kabul into Taliban’s hands has left the World flabbergasted. Buying into the American intelligence predictions which declared Taliban will take months to capture Kabul and the latest report that gave four weeks hold out time, World believed that Kabul can withstand. But the striking visuals of Taliban occupying the Presidential palace has alarmed countries. The pace of Kabul seizure stunned many countries and forced them to advance evacuation operations.
In little over a week, Taliban occupied over 13
provincial capitals. With thousands of Afghan security forces voluntarily
surrendering to the Taliban, in absence of any resistance, Taliban entered
Kabul and triggered the departure of President Ashraf Ghani.
Presidential office, later confirmed that Ghani left
Kabul to avoid bloodshed. In the meanwhile, a section of media portrayed this
astounding turn of events as a “bloodless coup” and lent a despicable
“legitimacy” to this takeover.
Clearly, the Taliban must have struck deals with the
local landlords and various resistant forces to advance their march towards
Kabul. However, it is beyond the logical understanding that US intelligence
which has been in the region for 20 years failed to get a hint of it.
Taliban 2.0
Even before the World could assess the impact of this
sudden change, visuals of the plight of Afghan civilians trying to flee the
country by even latching onto the wheels of a commercial flight hogged the limelight.
Along the same time, the sudden emergence of a new
crop of social media activists hailing the Taliban as “sons of soil”,
exonerating them of their atrocities against women by drawing parallels to the
crime rate against women in Western countries and non-existent Hindu terror,
the exultation over return of Taliban to power and the new obsession to justify
Sharia as being cool reeked of an assiduous attempt to whitewash the
brutalities of the Taliban.
This kind of discourse in conjunction with the
Taliban’s new trend of addressing press conferences including an Israeli media,
seems to be a novel effort to give the Taliban a face lift. Unmissably this new
coverup, displayed all the characteristics of signature style of orchestrated
campaigns launched to deliberately implant a narrative.
Additionally, through subtle assurances of peace and
amnesty, proclamations that women would be guaranteed rights as permitted under
the Muslim law, which in itself is a smart way of indicating imposition of
Sharia, Taliban unveiled their new moderate avatar before the World.
But buried deep inside this new makeover efforts are
the videos of Taliban intimidating Indians, a large contingent of 200 security
agency employees were held as hostage. The abduction of female mayor of
Afghanistan Zarifa Ghafari topples the façade of Taliban’s image makeover.
Also, in contrast to friendly media portrayal of
everything is under control, India and other countries are experiencing great
difficulties to evacuate its citizens and embassy employees. India sought the
help of local assets to drive the contingent through 15 odd check posts managed
by Taliban to reach the airport. In the aftermath of the civilians flooding the
tarmac of Kabul airport, India stationed C-17 flight at Ayni airbase in
Tajikistan.
Similarly, as opposed to the promises of not allowing
terrorists a base in Afghanistan and amnesty to Afghan workers who worked with
US government, Taliban released several dreaded terrorists from prisons. They
began summary execution of Afghans who earlier worked with western government
conducting door to door search. Fresh reports suggest that LeT is manning
borders in certain regions of Afghanistan.
Together, all these events inexorably point out the
Taliban 2.0 which is made to appear as moderate is indeed no different from its
earlier version. Clearly, they have packaged themselves well to suit the modern
world.
Nations response to Taliban take over
On August 13th, representatives of 12 nations which
include- US, Qatar, UN, China, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, UK, Germany, EU, India,
Norway, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey at a regional conclave in Doha agreed
that “they will not recognize any government that is imposed (on
Afghanistan) through military force”.
But less than 24 hrs after Kabul fell to Taliban, China
called on Taliban to “ensure smooth transition” of power and expressed
willingness to “deepen friendly and cooperative relations” with Taliban.
Making no secret of its elation, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan described
the Taliban seizure of Afghanistan has, “broken the shackles of slavery”
and endorsed the regime.
Forthcoming of Taliban’s return Russia stopped short
of recognizing the regime. But stated, “the situation in Kabul now under the
Taliban is better than it was under Ashraf Ghani”.
Instructively, the embassies of China, Pakistan and Russia are still open in
Kabul even as all nations have started evacuations.
Iran cautiously
welcomed Taliban. Qatar offered to facilitate peace talks and diplomatic
evacuations. Bahrain has promised to initiate conversation about Afghanistan at
GCC. Turkey which has pledged to security to Kabul airport is an active player
in Afghanistan currently.
Among the European nations, UK took a strong position
and voiced that nobody should bilaterally recognize Taliban. Prime Minister
Boris Johnson stated, “we want a united position amongst all the like-minded
as far as we can get one so that we do whatever we can to prevent Afghanistan
lapsing back into being a breeding ground for terror”.
Germany opined that the fallout Afghanistan owing to
the American pullback more to do with domestic politics is bound to have domino
effect. In the wake of turmoil in Afghanistan, at the request of Norway and
Estonia, as the President of UNSC, India summoned an urgent session, the second
such session in a month.
India expressed great concern over the situation of
the war-torn country and “hoped that there is an inclusive dispensation
which represents all sections of Afghan society”. Indian representative
Tirumurti emphasized, “if there is a zero tolerance for terrorism in all its
forms and manifestations and it is ensured that the territory of Afghanistan is
not used by terrorist groups to threaten or attack any other country, then
Afghanistan’s neighbours and the region would feel safer”.
India which currently adopting wait and watch policy
is the only country to have opened E-visa services to the Afghan citizens.
Geopolitical Dynamics
America’s incompetent and disorderly pullback of
troops coupled with Biden’s statement of not regretting his decision has
changed the geopolitical dynamics. Refusing to accept responsibility for a
botched-up exit, he blamed everyone- his predecessors, previous administration,
Afghan army for failing to put up resistance, except Taliban.
By exonerating Taliban of all culpability, Biden
fundamentally undermined the basic objective of America’s mission in
Afghanistan of War Against Terror (WAT). Trump’s Faustian bargain with Taliban
that contradicted its global positions on democracy, human rights, gender
equality, religious extremism and terrorism exposed America’s vacuous
commitment to all expounded values.
The message is not lost on the World. Above all, the fleeting retreat of the
American troops, meek surrender and self-righteous justification in consigning
the country to terrorists has irrevocably tarnished its reputation as the Super
power of free world.
America’s current ignominious withdrawal and blatant
disregard to the implications of the same on the region has eroded its
credibility especially in Asia. This has advanced its much-touted terminal
decline. America’s exit has left a huge global vacuum which Beijing is more
than eager to occupy.
The huge mess in Afghanistan exemplified specious
nature of so called free world which America advocates. Since the turn
of this century, China made no secret of carving an alternate World order and challenging
the West’s rules-based World order. America’s retrenchment in the recent past
has strengthened its resolve. The disastrous exit of America has impaled the
ethos of a democratic (free world) world order.
America’s bungling exit has only stratified its
infamous record of dumping allies. Afghan government is the new entrant to the
list which continues to grow. Credibility loss, is going to hurt America’s
foreign policy that seeks to counter Chinese expansionism. Together, American
intelligence monumental failure in assessing Kabul’s fall despite 20 years
boots on ground could be hard to contend with.
Even as analysts, defend America’s exit from Afghanistan
is to focus on Indo-Pacific which is the arena of global contestations, it
defies all logic. Having vanquished its credibility by throwing an ally under
the bus, prospective American partners in the region will be forced to rethink
about their strategic ties.
Quick to gauge America’s strategy, after Taliban took
over Kabul, PLA’s eastern command ordered live fire drills close to Taiwan
island as an indirect message to the leadership. The Global Times, openly
taunted Taiwan for depending on an unreliable and untrustworthy ally. The
images of America airlifting its stranded diplomats from Kabul embassy
reminding frenzied evacuation from Saigon in 1975 has only symbolized America’s
perfidy.
Doubling down on strategic engagements with countries
in the Indo-Pacific, Biden has marshalled his diplomats to the region to
mobilise a counter-coalition against China. However, America’s watershed moment
in Afghanistan has successfully watered down all these efforts. On the
contrary, America’s humiliation and self-defeat has buttressed China’s
alternate totalitarian world order. The nascent friendly ties of China with
authoritarian regimes like Pakistan, Turkey, Russia and Iran are bound to
receive a fresh shot in arm.
By welcoming Taliban’s takeover and announcing
friendly ties and extracting assurances to not shelter Uyghur separatists and
attack its assets in the region, China has stabilized its position.
Tamely accepting the Taliban’s commitment of not
undertaking terrorist attacks against US and its allies under Doha treaty, US
ignored interests of India. India has been at the receiving end of Taliban-ISI
nexus since 1980s. Pakistan is the patron-in-chief of Taliban and the latter
actively collaborated with its master to target India. Afghanistan under
resurgent Taliban could turn into breeding ground of terrorists ground can pose
a major threat to India’s internal security.
India’s Options
Expressing disappointment over America’s disorderly
exit, EAM Jaishankar clarified that India position on Afghanistan is different
from America. India viewed America’s ties with Pakistan to leverage Taliban
with an iota of mistrust and skepticism.
With America’s exit nearly complete, veritable
Pakistan-China nexus bound to intensify its boxing strategy of India, India is
now exploring new options. As a message to the West, Russia would eventually
recognize Taliban. India has doubled its outreach to Iran. Jaishankar made two
trips to Tehran within a month and the second one on the eve of President
Ebrahim Raisi’s oath-taking ceremony was quite significant. New Delhi has also
increased engagement with Central Asian Republics (CAR). Jaishankar recently
visited Uzbekistan and Tajikistan for the Regional Connectivity conference and
SCO Foreign Ministers conference respectively. Saudi Arabia and UAE only two
countries to have recognized Taliban 1.0 besides Pakistan are now quiet. India
currently enjoys strong strategic ties with both of them.
Taliban return culminating in emergence of a
mini-caliphate has invariably scripted a new dimension in geopolitics. Rise of
medieval, ultra-conservative, jihadist regimes and their eventual
legitimization by super powers for their interests is bound to have inimical
consequences. Mainstreaming of the terrorist regimes and their eventual
acceptability is set to embolden extremist outfits across the globe. As has
been the case, the absence of sanctions and damning retributions on the
state-sponsors of terror and their eventual co-option is posing a major threat
to regional security. Take over the state by terrorist groups aside increasing
the risk of state assets, finances including strategic weapons falling into
hands of rogue elements will compound threats to their adversaries.
Most importantly, Taliban resurgence accentuated the
limitations of military to deal an ideology. It is time, twin weapons of global
isolation and sanctions regime must be employed against the terror groups and
their patrons to remedy the world from the ideology driven scourge.
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