Xi’s trip to Tibet invariably ignited the “great-power competition”

 With no signs of breaking the prolonged stalemate over disengagement of troops and Beijing’s unabated nibbling of Bhutan territory to position threateningly close to the chicken neck of India, New Delhi deployed 50,000 additional troops across LAC.

Days later spewing nationalism, the Dragon sent out a fierce message to the World on the eve of CCP Centenary celebrations. Hitting out at the adversaries, President Xi at centenary CCP speech warned, any attempts to subjugate the country would result in “heads bashed bloody against a Great Wall of Steel”. The remark which didn’t figure in the Chinese government’s softened English translation resurfaced in the actual translation exposing the true intentions of China.

Arguably, China which pitched for delinking the border issues with the bilateral ties with India officials had no qualms in sending its uncompromising stance on issues of national interest to the World and expects New Delhi to continue with business as usual.

China’s stealthy intrusion across the LAC when India was distracted by the Covid lockdown hasn’t gone down well with India. The prolonged standoff, 15 months long has turned LAC into a hot zone. Refusing to restore status quo ante, planning to push LAC west, Beijing began amassing troops and erecting shelters in contravention to mutual agreements. Eruption of violence has only exacerbated tensions and deepened mistrust. Consequently, Tibet became the focus area for China.

A month into the standoff, China issued third White paper on Tibet commemorating the 71^st year of signing of 17-point agreement between Lhasa and Beijing. The Whitepaper had important aspects- firstly, having tight- leash on the succession process of the Dalai Lama and sinicizing of Tibetan Buddhism. The third unspoken aspect was based on Xi’s observation at the National People’s Congress in 2013, “to govern the country well we must first govern the frontiers well, and to govern the frontiers well we must first ensure stability in Tibet”.

Accordingly, Beijing gave renewed push to its Border Villages Program, akin to salami slicing of South China Sea (SCS), where civilian settlements are built along disputed border to reinforce its claims. These villages besides serving as eyes and ears for the PLA would alter the demography of the region. Satellite images spotted one such village close to Arunachal border, the region which China calls as Southern Tibet.

Analysts later alluded that China is on a village building spree along the strategic borders with Nepal, Bhutan and India. Taking objection to India’s rapid infrastructure development projects along the LAC, China has ramped up connectivity to Tibetan plateau.

With a focus on Tibet at the 7^th Tibetan Forum, held on August 29^th, 2020 Beijing called for immediate fortification the roof of the World into a fortress. In a bid to safeguard the border and facilitate delivery of strategic goods during crises, China expedited border infrastructure connectivity plans. Accordingly, China unveiled a bullet train connecting the capital Lhasa to Nyingchi, 17 km from Arunachal Pradesh border days ahead to CCP centenary.

Galwan incident and India’s occupation of strategic Kailash Heights exemplified the combat prowess of Indian Army and left an indelible mark on PLA.  Special Frontier Force (SFF), a regiment comprising majorly of Tibetan commandos of Indian Army meticulously executed this operation.  While Chinese conscripts struggled to acclimatize and guard the icy peaks along the LAC, influenced by the sturdiness of Tibetans in exile serving the Indian Army, China initiated induction of Tibetans into PLA and Special Tibetan Army unit (STAU). Reportedly coercive drives are underway making its mandatory for each family to send at least one person for recruitment especially in Ngari prefecture.

The massive induction is unlikely to yield any results relationship between the Hans and Tibetans is marred by trust deficit.  Besides a statement by Dalai Lama extending support to India can force Tibetans to desert PLA.

Gearing up to take on India, China is slowly converting the temporary structures into permanent positions and upgrading the airbases along the Indo-Tibetan border. Fighter and bombers are now moved to the airbases in Tibet-Hotan, Kashgar, Gargunsa, Lhasa-Gonggar and Shigatse. Needless to say, all these developments, leave no iota of doubt that China is no mood for de-escalation.

Annexing Tibet, China has become India’s neighbour. Beijing started using Tibet as launch pad for its territorial incursions. The prolonged 15-month long standoff has tested India’s “strategic patience”. With Beijing relentlessly needling India’s affairs through Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Maldives, India which has sheltered the Dalai Lama for over 60 years shedding diffidence played the Tibet card. Tibet is at the heart of India China dispute. PM Modi for the first time since 2014, greeted Dalai Lama on his birthday on July 6^th and tweeted about his telephonic conversation.

Since 2008 there has been slight shift in India’s Tibet policy. In 2014, Modi invited Head of Central Tibetan Administration (CTA), Lobsang Sangay to his inauguration and allowed the Dalai Lama to visit Tawang in 2017 and Sangay to unfurl Tibetan flag at Pangong Tso. Post-Doklam, adhering to Wuhan Consensus, Modi softened India’s stand and asked officials to avoid participating in events on the eve of 60 years of Dalai Lama’s arrival in India. But the current stand-off frayed the ties. 

Modi’s tweet has been India’s way of reminding China of its support to the Dalai Lama and his right to appoint a successor. Principle of reincarnation and Dalai Lama succession are of immense importance to China. Beijing is making aggressive moves to scuttle the process and appoint its lackey as the 15^th Dalai Lama to crush the Tibetan resistance for eternity.

As a message to China, India allowed Tibetans to celebrate the Dalai Lama birthday this year in the areas adjoining LAC, U-bend of Indus River and Ladakh. In response to these festivities, the PLA soldiers posted close to LAC displayed a red banner protesting the event.

Ever since animosities between China and the US escalated, America has changed its position towards Tibet. In November 2020, CTA head Lobsang was invited to the White House and in December 2020, US passed Tibetan Policy and Support Act stating that Dalai Lama is the final authority on his own reincarnation and succession and mooted establishment of US consulate at Lhasa. Exercising firm control, China continues to restrict the movement of foreign in Tibet. Expressing serious concerns over this legislation, US imposed restrictions on Chinese visitors to America under the “reciprocal act of 2018”. Trump administration’s support to Tibetan cause and the new act has riled up China.

Tibet and India shared strong cultural, religious and trade links and after its invasion in 1959, by offering refuge to the 14^th Dalai Lama and 17^th Karmapa, India emerged the centre of Tibetan Buddhism. India’s close links with Tibet is cause of heartburn for China which believes that New Delhi can weaken its hold on Tibet. In 1965, China renamed Tibet as Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) and India recognized TAR as part of China in 2003. The promise of autonomy was a myth. On the contrary, to consolidate its power, China cracked down on any kind of revolt with heavy hand.

After Mao’s death, China attempted to make some amends to its Tibetan policy and initiated negotiations. Between 2002 to 2010 the Dalai Lama representatives and China’s United Work Front Department held ten rounds of talks with a clause that everything except independence is negotiable. But the talks collapsed and remained suspended.

China aspired to win over Tibet through development and political re-education. Ushering Socialism in this region, Beijing wanted to sinicise the Tibetan Buddhism. Believing that development would bring the region closer to mainland, Beijing launched the Western Development Campaign building new factories, roads, oil pipelines and necessary infrastructure. Under the garb of poverty alleviation China voraciously exploited the mineral wealth of the region and diverted waters from this water fount by building 11 dams and caused irreparable environmental degradation.

China’s development agenda for Tibet failed to cut ice. Coinciding with Beijing Olympics 2008, Tibetans revolted against the mainland. As a mark of support widespread protests for autonomy were carried out in Tibet, India, Nepal. In the next couple of years hundreds of Tibetans monks performed self-immolation opposing China’s control.

Though this uprising and China’s efforts to deracinate Tibetans failed to garner much attention as the Uighur detentions, post Tibetan revolt, China has hardened its stance. Under the Chairmanship of Xi, China denounced the Middle Way approach of Dalai Lama deemed it as splittism. Beijing categorically warned that the Dalai Lama should abandon the stance of independence and publicly announce that “Tibet has been integral part of China since antiquity”.

As a frontier region, Tibet is at the heart of China’s expansionist tool kit. Tibetan security is extremely pivotal for China’s India policy. Hence, signalling strong disapproval to Modi’s telephonic conversation with Dalai Lama, Xi visited Nyinchi in Tibet bordering Arunachal Pradesh on July 21-22. The last Chinese President to visit Tibet was Jiang Zemin in 1990. Xi last visited Tibet as vice-president a decade ago.

This visit which remained a state secret until video appeared on the social media Weibo, had glimpses of Xi receiving a warm welcome in Tibet. Accompanied by Zhou Youxia, vice-chairman of Central Military Commission and in charge of the peripheral regions, Claude Arpi writes Xi interacted with military commanders and soldiers stationed in Tibet. Xi visited the Nying River Bridge in Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin (Brahmaputra in India) and Nyang River its tributary. In November 2020, China announced the construction of dams along the Yarlung River to use the waters as a strategic weapon against India.

The downstream North Eastern region of India is extremely vulnerable to flooding from overflows of Yarlung river. Much against the warnings of building series of hydroelectric dams in this earthquake prone region which can put entire region in risk and cause environmental degradation China is going ahead with this project to threaten India.

During his visit, Xi was seen interacting with locals in Shaliuhe township, Bakhor, Bayi headquarters of security forces and intentionally rode back to Lhasa in the recently unveiled train to Nyngchi. Xi’s visit to the region is orchestrated demonstrate Tibetan acceptability of Han rule and to assert China’s complete control over the region.

Undoubtedly, Xi’s visit coming days after Modi’s telephone call to Dalai Lama and ahead of the US deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman’s visit to Tianjin for talks is an overt warning to India and the US.

Above all, Xi’s Nyngchi visit unequivocally demonstrated China’s hardened stance and a default prolonged stalemate in Indo-China talks over restoration of status quo ante. Perhaps, it might also be China’s way of hinting India of opening yet another front along the Arunachal border. Intending to put India in place, China stealthily intruded LAC. But shocked by India’s vigorous military response quick force deployment, China quickly ramped up defences and unwittingly entered a point of no return where an attempt to pull back will be deemed timorous.

With his pompous border visit, Xi has provoked India and foreclosed all attempts to backdown. By dictating terms and outlining demands for engagement at Tianjin, China has inexorably miffed US. Paying back in its own coin, US Secretary for State, Anthony Blinken on his India visit, met the representative of CTA, Ngodup Dongchung.

China for long rued Indo-US strategic convergence. Xi’s Tibet trip and antagonistic posturing besides exemplifying its muscular revisionism has invariably ignited the “great-power competition” and paving way for deepening of Indo-US partnership and strategic cooperation.

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