Road Trip to Leh-Ladakh Part-1

Traveling has been a passion for us. A true, real and modest way of exploring the World. The World is a book and those don’t travel read only one page. Besides, the journey to different places make us modest, receptive and broad-minded. Traveling constantly reminds us how infinitesimally small we are in this complex, diverse and amazingly beautiful world. Especially any travel associated with exploration of nature humbles in the most unexpected way.

The crowning glory of India, Himalayas, have been the real pull factor for our numerous road trips to the northern states- Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Most of them impromptu road drives. Being travel enthusiasts, we always enjoyed a kind of uncertainty associated with unplanned trips. To explore pristine beauty and unique landscapes of the outer Himalayan ranges, we intended to drive through the Ladakh Valley. To familiarise ourselves about the travails of the most talked about adventurous drive to Leh through Rohtang Pass, we began to watch videos of several bikers and motorists. For long, we were constrained by the idea that one can drive through these erratic hilly terrains and rough road patches in vehicles that had good road clearance. Bogged down by this constraint, we postponed our plans several times. But never gave up the idea of exploring the enchanting mountainous region beyond the Rohtang Pass. Last year, we travelled to Keylong in the Lahual Valley, 126 km from Rohtang Pass. After seeking inputs from people who drove till Leh and beyond, we were convinced that we can travel in small cars. Most of them assured that people drive till Leh in smaller cars like Alto. These conversations gave us enough confidence to pursue the cherished idea of driving to Leh. Just like all other trips, this year, though we made up our minds to visit Leh this summer, we didn’t make meticulous plans as we were unsure of obtaining the mandatory travel permit to travel to Rohtang Pass.

To Manali via Swarghat

Our impromptu trip with vague plans of driving till Leh, remained in limbo till we procured travel permit. In the meanwhile, we drove from Delhi to Chandigarh. After getting the permit, issued by the Tourism Development Council Manali by around 3pm we started from Chandigarh, we travelled to Manali via Swarghat. We reached outskirts of Manali close to midnight. With no hopes of finding of any decent overnight accommodation in Manali, we tried knocking the doors of what seemed to be big travellers’ bungalow. But as we entered inside it turned out to ashram. Upon great persuasion and request, they allowed us to rest for the night. We got ready by 3:45am in the morning and left for Rohtang pass, 51km from Manali. Having experienced the traffic jam enroute Rohtang pass last year, to easily surpass huge uphill traffic, we were in the queue by 5am. 

Enroute Rohtang Pass

Since 2016, Himachal Pradesh government started issuing permits online to limit the traffic after the National Green Tribunal warned the government of dangerous consequences of increasing vehicular pollution. Since then travel permits are issued to first 800 petrol vehicles and 400 Diesel vehicles. Cognizant of this restriction, we reached early. Thankfully, we could breeze past the traffic very quickly and got our permit checked at Marhi check post.

Towards Rohtang Pass

Towards Rohtang Pass

Rohtang Pass

Rohtang Pass, located at 13,050ft located on the Pir Panjal ranges connects the Lahaul and Spiti valley to Kullu Valley. But as we began to ascend, all the towering snow-capped mountains are getting enveloped by thick clouds and it soon began to drizzle. It continued to drizzle till we crossed Rohtang Pass. Road leading to Lahual-Spiti valley from Rohtang Pass is heavily pitted, treacherous with huge cess pools of continuously flowing streams. As we smoothly descended the pass, we saw, vehicles lined up along the edge of the hill. A private bus, while taking a crooked turn, slipped into muddy patch and got stuck. Huge, crane was deployed to pull out the bus. The entire operation took over an hour after which downhill traffic was first allowed to carefully tread past that accident-prone area. Soon we reached, the downhill base camp of Rohtang Pass, Khoksar, where our permit thoroughly checked to enter the Lahaul Valley. We drove along the Chenab river, which flows to the north of Rohtang Pass. The roads from Khoksar towards Keylong are pretty good, plush with several camps organising trekking to Pir Panjal ranges and other glaciers. The ride through small hamlets cultivating Wheat with splinkler irrigation is a beautiful site to watch. We passed Sissu, an extremely beautiful enchanting village located amidst thick vegetation. Before, Keylong, all the vehicles would invariably stop at Tandi village, which is the last petrol bunk in Himachal Pradesh along the Manali-Leh highway. The next petrol pump is 365km ahead at Kharu in Jammu and Kashmir 56 km before Leh. 

Crane deployed to pull out the bus 

Tandi village is place of confluence (sangam) of two rivers Chandra (flowing from South East) and Bhaga (from North East), the collective waters called as Chandrabhaga river flows north west which becomes Chenab near Kishtwar town in Jammu and Kashmir. Keylong, is 7km from the sangam is administrative capital of Lahaul and Spiti district. Keylong, is the most famous resting place for the adventure bikers and tourists traveling to Leh. Abutted by snow-capped mountain peaks on one side and brown rusty barren lands on the other, Keylong 126km from Rohtang pass is a small laid-back town, situated on banks of River Chandra. It serene atmosphere and beautiful landscape is an ideal place for relaxation. It has a tribal museum with an impressive collection of artefacts, musical instruments, paintings, weapons, traditional attire, contemporary photos of Lahaul and Spiti valley. It is a cultural capital of Buddhist traditions of the valley with three Buddhist monasteries within few kilometres distance-Kardang Monastery, Shashur and Tayul Monastery. Kardang is largest monastery in Lahual of Drukpa sect of Tibetan Buddhism. After a short walk to the local market and museum, we were tired. All the three monasteries located on steep slopes which can be accessed through some of the deadliest roads, we couldn’t visit them. We rested at Keylong for the night and go ready for the much-awaited journey to Leh. 

Sissu

People acquainted with the Manali-Leh highway advised us to start towards early in the morning to avoid traffic jams and landslides, most common along this route. They cautioned us of the overflowing streams of water percolating from the mountain tops that flood the high way. Especially, they warned us about a pagal nallah near the Zingzing bar, whose water levels would increase with the day since bright sunshine would melt the snow. Moreover, Leh is 358km from Keylong and to reach our destination by night, we were on the road by 6am. Having gathered some useful bits of information about the road conditions from some motorists, we were gripped by enthusiasm and a vague sense of apprehension.

Last Petrol pump on Leh-Manali route @Tandi

Confluence of Chandra and Bagha Rivers

Keylong

Photos courtesy: Dr. T. L. S. Bhaskar

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Modi-Moon building bilateral ties on mutual complementarities

Soaring nuclear ambitions of Kim Jong Un that threatened peace and security sent the region into a tizzy last year. The subsequent high-pitched verbal exchanges, name-calling, insidious threats by President Trump could hardly bring a semblance of peace. Undertaking arduous task of reducing looming nuclear exigency, South Korean President Moon Jae-in earnestly reached out to North Korea, rekindling fresh hopes of a plausible peaceful denuclearisation. Months into power, the son of North Korean migrants demonstrated rare statesmanship and maturity and worked for a Korean rapprochement in March. His unflinching efforts towards reducing tensions in Korean peninsula and a formal dialogue with its Korean counterpart, a near impossible feat earned him rich accolades, surging popularity ratings to 80%.

 Moon took over as President when South Korea was facing turbulent times. The unceremonious exit of former President Park Guen-Hye on charges of crony capitalism exposed the skewed dominance of the giant family-owned industrial conglomerates called chaebols in South Korean economy. Aside these new challenges, arm-twisting by China in the form crippling economic sanctions in response to the US deployment of THAAD in South Korea weakened growth rate. This economic coercion badly hurt country’s economy which was dependent on Chinese market. An assault on the economy prompted President Moon, sworn-in in May 2017 towards diversification as a hedging strategy. Moon soon launched the “New Southern Policy” (NSP) in November 2017 on his visit to three ASEAN countries. The policy rests on 3-Ps: building people-centred, peace-loving and mutually prosperous community soon became cornerstone of his foreign policy doctrine. NSP resonates with Modi’s Act East Policy, which seeks to enhance and deepen partnership with India’s eastern counterparts.

Modi indeed was one of the first few leaders who wished Moon on his electoral success. His congratulatory tweet in Korea was hugely appreciated by Koreans and media. Reciprocating this gesture, President Moon sent his cultural minister, Chung Dongchea as special envoy to meet Prime Minister Modi in June 2017. Soon Moon made an announcement to elevate Korean relationship with India to the level of other four traditional partners-the US, Russia, Japan and China under “New Asia Community Plus Framework”.

Giving wings to his NSP, President Moon arrived in New Delhi on a four-day visit to India from July 8^th to 11^th. South Korean President last visited India in 2014 and considering the rapid geopolitical changes in the landscape of Northeast Asia and in Indo-Pacific region, such a high-level meeting is long overdue. Reiterating India’s keen interest to deepen cooperation with South Korea, Prime Minister Modi visited Seoul in 2015 and elevated bilateral ties to “Special Strategic Partnership”.

Historical Connect

India and South Korea have a historical partnership that dates back to over 2000 years. According to “The Heritage History of the Three Kingdoms or Samguk Yusa”, Princess of Ayodhya has travelled to Korea to marry King Kim-Suro and became Queen Hur Hwang-ok. Former Presidents, Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam and former prime minister Kim Jong-pil trace their lineage to the royal couple. There are historical evidences of Korean travellers visiting India and vividly describing the country in their travelogues. Even Buddhism which originated in India is now practised by a majority of Koreans.

Contemporary relations

After World war-II, India helped Korea to conduct elections after independence in 1945. During the Korean war, both Koreas accepted the peace resolution proposed by General K.S. Thimmayya. He served as chairman of Neutral Nations Repatriation Commission (NNRC) and evolved a commendable solution for resolving humanitarian crisis after the armistice in 1953. India established consular relations in 1962 and elevated them to ambassador-level in 1973. Despite India’s contributions towards Korean war and armistice, India’s relations with ROK lacked an enthusiasm. Phenomenal economic growth of Republic of Korea (ROK) between 1963-79 transformed the country from rags to riches catapulting it to the club of wealthiest nations, OECD. By end of 1990’s ROK embraced democracy and India in response to marked globalisation introduced economic reforms and reoriented its foreign policy by launching Look East Policy. ROK’s transition and India’s push for open markets found a new congruence leading to fortification of bilateral ties.

Subsequently high-level exchanges and reciprocal visits of heads of states strengthened the relations. In 2006, President Abdul Kalam on his state visit launched Joint Task Force and laid foundation for Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) which operationalised in 2010. This accelerated the bilateral trade which crossed $20 billion mark, registering a 70% increase in a two-year period and prompted the leaders to set a target of $50 billion. However, trade registered a sudden decline with numbers slipping to $16.82 billion by 2016. By 2017, bilateral trade stabilized, and the Ministerial Level Joint Meeting recommended for an upgradation of CEPA.

In 2010, President Lee on his visit to India as chief guest for Republic Day Parade raised ties to Strategic Partnership. In a huge boost to energy cooperation, India sealed nuclear cooperation agreement in 2011. Strengthening bilateral ties further, in 2014 during President Park’s visit both countries signed “Joint Statement for Expansion of Strategic Partnership” encompassing maritime security and economic cooperation, counter terrorism. Laying firm foundation for strong Indo-Korean partnership, both countries established 2+2 consultation mechanism of foreign and defence Ministers. During his visit, Modi sought Korean investments under the Make In India initiative and collaboration in ship building, automobile, electronics, textiles, food processing. Korea pledged $10 billion towards infrastructure development like smart cities, railways and power generation. To boost investments India and ROK launched an initiative “Korea Plus” in January 2016. As of 2017, investments from industrial conglomerates like Samsung, LG, Hyundai Motors and other 500 Korean business establishments account for $4.4 billion, while Indian investments in ROK are to a tune of $3 billion.

Economic Cooperation

Moon’s visit to India marks 45 years of diplomatic relations. Economic cooperation has been at the core of Indo-Korean bilateral ties is at the top of Moon’s agenda. Korean economy which is export-driven is highly vulnerable to trade volatilities. Presently, Trump’s protectionist policies and the ongoing US-China trade war aggravated uncertainties in global trade. Volatilities of global market can blow a heavy blow to export-driven economies like ROK. In a bid to diversify its trade, ROK began to forge ties with developing economies of South East Asia and India, which has huge market potential. Korean industrial giants are making renewed push to expand their reach in Indian markets. President Moon, who termed India as “the next China” wary of China’s coercive diplomacy is wooing India. To this end, both countries finalized the “Early Harvest Package” that would lead to upgrade of CEPA. Under Early harvest package, ROK has pushed for early reduction of tariffs on 17 items. Both sides settled on 11 items. Leaders have even set the target of bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030.

But domestic traders are not enthusiastic about this development since India exports raw materials and imports finished electronic goods. Bilateral trade is heavily tilted towards ROK and India currently runs a trade deficit of $12 billion, which is bound to increase if India opens economy further. As of now, India economy is not efficient to compete with the developed economies like ROK. While India ambitiously clinches deals on economic cooperation, its fails to stand up to the competitive markets of developed economy because of its incipient inefficiencies.

Having realised huge potential for growth in June 2017, Samsung announced plans to double its production capacity in India with an additional investment of Rs 4915 crores at Noida. This ambitious plan of Samsung led to the construction of one of the World’s largest mobile manufacturing unit, jointly inaugurated by Prime Minister Modi and President Moon on July 9^th. 

MoUs signed

India and Korea signed 10 agreements covering a broad spectrum of areas including- trade remedies, artificial intelligence, internet of things, science and technology, rail research, biotechnology and bio-big data, information communication technology, MSME, skill development and cultural exchanges. Both sides, explored the possibilities of coordinating efforts in defence and strategic spheres including enhanced military exchanges. Disapproving Chinese assertion, leaders reaffirmed importance of freedom of navigation, overflight, unimpeded lawful commerce. India has welcomed ROK’s contribution towards total denuclearisation of peninsula. While ROK supported India’s membership to Nuclear Suppliers Group for strengthening international non-proliferation efforts. ROK is against any expansion of UNSC and bats for traditional setup because of its traditional rivalry with Japan.  

Strategic Cooperation

Despite India’s significant role in Korean peninsula in the aftermath of second world war, and its diplomatic ties with both Koreas, both India and ROK never made fervent attempts to forge strong strategic partnership. ROK has never been a priority for India’s Look East Policy and similarly Seoul with all its economic clout never looked beyond the realm of Northeast Asia. Shifting geopolitical landscape and palpable turbulence in traditional alignments has opened new vistas for cooperation. China’s crippling economic sanctions, its overbearing hegemony has thrown up new challenges prompting nations to expand bilateral strategic and defence cooperation. A growing consciousness of buttressing regionalism is resonating well with countries adding heft to the concept of Indo-Pacific cooperation.

Though India has elevated ties to special strategic partnership, both countries haven’t imparted any momentum to it. Giving impetus to bilateral cooperation, countries have now resolved to work together for global peace and prosperity. They have agreed to explore a tripartite partnership with capacity building projects in Afghanistan. Another point of considerable cooperation can be the vital linkages between North Korea and Pakistan which can be a plausible impediment in nuclear armament. Addressing this issue at the joint press meet, Modi said, “During our talks, I told President Moon that proliferation of linkages between Northeast Asia and South Asia (Pakistan) is matter of concern to India. Therefore, India is a stake holder in the peace process. We will ensure our bit to ensure peace”. India also promised to extend unwavering support to ensure permanent peace on Korean peninsula.

Back in 2017, when US forced India to stall diplomatic ties with North Korea, India refused the Rex Tillerson’s suggestion and Sushma Swaraj in a press meet clarified, “I told secretary Tillerson that embassies of some of your friendly countries should remain there so that some channels of communication remain open. Many times, you may have need to talk…. A mutual dialogue may be required to resolve some issues. At least one embassy should be there from your friends.” India expressed its intentions to play a role in denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula if need arises. Accordingly, commemorating 45 years of diplomatic ties, Minister of State for external affairs travelled to Pyongyang in May to hold talks with North Korean leadership.

Both leaders have discussed areas of convergence and affirmed interest in working together. With no outstanding territorial disputes/geopolitical baggage and robust economic cooperation in place, there is a great potential for expansion of strategic cooperation. During Moon’s visit both leaders met 10 times in four days, in a first, Modi received President Moon at Gandhi Smriti, hosted a dinner party for the couple, extended red carpet welcome and rode metro together. The visit which was high on photo-ops ended on positive note. Before leaving India, President Moon tweeted, “I spent four days in India among its kind, generous people. Living Gods appear to reside in their eyes, and Prime Minister Modi is a man who has known the value of harmony his entire life-just as India has throughout its history” leaving an indelible impression on Indian minds.

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Nations Wary of China’s dubious investments and loans

Last fortnight NYT carried an article on how debt-ridden Sri Lanka was forced to relinquish its rights over the strategic Hambantota port. This explosive investigative report blew lid off Chinese claims of OBOR’s (One Belt One Road) professed “win-win scenario”. It substantially confirmed claims of strategists who described the signature initiative as “debt trap diplomacy”. Besides highlighting quasi-opaque loans and financial assistances of China, it exposed the hard-ball tactics of China. After ballooning debts and its financial strangulation ensnared Sri Lanka into an abyss of debt, Myanmar decided to embrace a cautious approach.

Pushing for a deep economic cooperation in Asian economies and to overcome the Malacca Dilemma China planned to acquire Kyauk Pyu deep port in the Rakhine state of Myanmar. Initially China forged an agreement with Myanmar for building a parallel oil and natural gas pipeline from Kyauk Pyu to Kunming in China. With China as major stake holder, the construction was completed by 2015 and began operations in 2017. Cognizant of Kyauk Pyu’s strategic geographic advantage, in 2016, China’s CITIC group clinched a contract for construction of $7.3 billion deep port and $2.7 billion special economic zone along the coast of Bay of Bengal. As per initial terms of agreement, CITIC will build the port and run it for 50 years which can be extended to another 25 years with proposed stake of 70%. China even pledged to create 100,000 jobs that can potentially transform the region.  In December 2017, Myanmar Councillor Aung San Suu kyi agreed to the proposal of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor connecting Kyauk Pyu to Kunming. A 30% of stakes for Myanmar for the port $2.2 billion and a 50% which is $3.5billion or 5% of GDP. Currently, Myanmar is facing international condemnation over Rohingya issue and EU invoked arms embargo. Two years into power, Trump administration failed to revive the resurrected US-Myanmar relations. US indifference has pushed Myanmar has pushed into Beijing’s tent. With western doors closed, Myanmar may not get loans from any other multilateral financial institutions. It must turn to China again for loans to keep this huge project afloat. The tales of Sri Lankan spiralling debt and Pakistan’s ever-increasing demand for more loans from China to fund CPEC generated new fears about nation’s sovereignty and Chinese financing. Going by the Sri Lankan experience of poor economic viability of port which is far flung from the capital, Myanmar Minister believes that Kyauk Pyu project must be “as lean as possible”.  

As of 2017, Myanmar’s external debt is $9.6 billion of which it owes 40% to China. A huge project of $10 billion would further increase the burden of debt financing. Further, Sean Turnell, Suu Kyi’s financial consultant cited that while Panama Canal Expansion project is $5.25 billion. “The idea that a port in Myanmar would cost $7 billion is absurd”. With reference to China obtaining Hambantota for 99-year lease as debt relief, “the example that stand out, that has been really taken notice of in Myanmar”. He added, “what is on the table here is exactly what was on the table in Sri Lanka”. Clearly, the baneful consequences of debt distress are impelling nations to tread in caution.

After the arrest of former Prime Minister and other government officials on charges of corruption in Chinese projects, Kyrgyzstan is growing wary of increasing Chinese influence. While GDP of the country is $7 billion, it has $4 billion foreign debt of which China accounts for half of it. Kyrgyzstan worried of its dependence on China is trying to diversify its relations with Turkey and larger neighbours Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Rapid expansion in economic and trade partnerships between the two countries led to a marked increase in Chinese cultural and humanitarian influence. China’s deliberate soft power push and its utter disregard towards environmental concerns, is brewing discontent among the locals. Investigations now reveal that officials are bribed to award contracts to Chinese companies without proper tenders. These contracts are funded by Export-Import Bank of China perpetuating the never-ending cycle of debt.

In Vietnam, protestors hit the streets in large numbers after government passed a special zone act to create Special Economic Zones in three strategic locations to boost investment and economic reforms. With allegations that these zones are being offered to Chinese investors flew thick and high, protestors held placards, “No Special Zone-No leasing land to China-Even for one day” and forced the government to postpone the passage of law until next parliamentary session. Vietnamese in general are distrust of its northern neighbour, Beijing which is rapidly militarising all the geographical features in South China Sea and preventing Vietnam from fishing and oil exploration in its exclusive zone. The protests which started in Ho Chi Minh city have soon spread to entire country.

Chinese investments in Cambodia are causing severe resentment among locals. Sihanoukville, a beach city in Cambodia has become hub of entertainment activities with as many as 30 casinos built in last 10 years. All these casinos frequented by Chinese tourists employ Chinese workers brewing anger among the locals who are very poor. Massive influx of Chinese tourists has escalated the rents and cost of living. Resentment is mounting among locals with meagre financial resources who are severely disadvantaged by the unhindered Chinese inflow of investments. Besides, an unusual onslaught on their personal freedoms is creating tension between locals and Chinese visitors. China accounts for over 90% of foreign investments of Cambodia. China backs Hun Sen, the authoritarian leader of Cambodia despite his crackdown of opposition, human rights activists and media is condemned by west. To improve flagging economy, Cambodian government has opened all channels for Chinese investments and has turned the country into a major frontier of OBOR.

Last month, armed men attacked Chinese cement factories, part of OBOR initiative in Laos and confiscated huge amounts of money and other expensive equipment. Sources revealed that Laotian partner of Chinese companies sought the help of security personnel who attended the raid in their official capacity to recover allegedly lost assets. Lao partner alleged that Chinese company has siphoned off several millions of dollars from the joint venture which turned out be a fraudulent contract.  An official later clarified that armed men are security men deployed to “prevent the bitter fraud from boiling over”. It emerged that Laos employed similar methods earlier when Chinese companies tried to defraud.

Unlike in the past few years, enthusiasm of East European countries towards Chinese investments seems to have faded. In an aggressive bid to romp in these smaller European nations towards expanding the horizons of connectivity network, China has started 16+1 arrangement back in 2012. EU which initially overlooked China’s overtures at its own peril has now woken up. Even IMF began to alert these nations of the plausible outcomes of the beguiling diplomacy. China’s annual summits are now eliciting tepid response from the East European nations. The 16 countries are EU member states-Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia and non-EU states Albania, Bosnia and Herzgovina, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. There is palpable disgruntlement among nations who expressed dissatisfaction at the results, extensive use of Chinese men and material and Beijing’s incongruent functioning that is not in line with EU standards. Baring Hungary and Serbia which are upbeat about Chinese investments for the new rail link between Belgrade and Budapest all other countries are visibly distraught. Poland, Romania, Slovakia expressed their scepticism towards Beijing’s inability to fulfil financial pledges. EU has expressed severe concerns over the economic viability of the much touted $2.89 billion Belgrade-Budapest high-speed rail link funded by 85% of EXIM bank of China loans. The 350-kilometer rail project will cut down travel time to three hours is part of China’s OBOR in Europe. It is vital for China, as Beijing aims to use this rail to transport its exports from the Greek port, Pireus to the hinterlands of Europe. Now the project is now facing glitches for failing to comply with EU norms and regulations. Stalling of this project can be a major embarrassment for China which is masquerading a divide and rule policy under the garb of connectivity. 

Ironically, while countries are dialling back on their economic and trade links with China, Nepal Prime Minister, KP Sharma Oli’s paeans of Chinese generosity and signing of $2.4 billion infrastructure and connectivity deals is rather intriguing. Contentedly cuddling in Beijing’s new-found warmth, Kathmandu perilously ignored the massive public furore in Sri Lanka on loss of sovereignty and potential land grab by a foreign power.

Unlike the stoic rise of Super powers, China’s rapid global expansion has evoked massive public unrest and discontent. Public in general are upping ante against its investments and loans. Nations are mistrustful and sceptical of Beijing’s ambitions. Till now all major powers had cultivated a reliable ecosystem of coterie of nations that extended unstinted support to them. World had always witnessed the rise of bloc as such with a nation leading them. But China’s professed “peaceful rise” has been lonely. It transactional and duplicitous approach hasn’t enthused even single nation. Even China’s all-weather friend, Pakistan is threatening to cripple CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor), cornerstone of OBOR, if Beijing fails to bail it out from looming currency crisis. China’s former client state, North Korea has masterfully slipped away from China’s cudgels by tactfully keeping Beijing away from its denuclearisation talks with US. By employing guile, tact and the time-tested neo-colonial practices, a lonely Beijing is inching towards the coveted major power status. To satiate its unquenchable appetite for territory, Beijing has been covertly expanding frontiers and stretching boundaries, reclaimed and militarised geographical features in South China Sea (SCS), overturned the ruling of Permanent Court of Arbitration threatening regional security and peace. Is the world ready for a notoriously distrustful, intimidating and coercive global power?

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Erdogan’s re-election marks annihilation of liberal values in Turkey

Elections are a defining moment in any country’s journey laying firm ground for future course of action. In the simultaneous Parliamentary and Presidential polls conducted last Sunday, Turks voted in overwhelming numbers. Poll pundits who predicted a close contest in elections with over 85% of poll turnout in Turkey were surprised to find, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan re-elected for the second time. He secured 52.5% of votes while his nearest rival Muharrem Ince, social democrat of Republican People’s Party (CHP) secured 30% votes avoiding a second round. While the Justice and Development Party (AKP) started by Erdogan in 2001 lost ground in the parliamentary elections, a strong show by allies, National Movement Party (MHP) compensated for the loss. For the first time in 16 years, AKP with 42.5% votes obtained 295 seats and lost majority in the Parliament with 600 seats. MHP with 11.1% vote got 49 seats.

Of the four elections held in the past five years, Erdogan emerged victorious and steadily consolidated power. In run-up to elections, determined opposition parties forged alliances to launch a tough fight against the formidable Erdogan. Also, fresh changes in the electoral laws allowed multiple parties to contest as single electoral alliance. Thus, the two largest alliances the right-wing nationalist, People’s alliance of AKP and MHP against the social democrats, National Alliance-CHP and Aksener’s Good Party battled hard. Presidential candidate, Selahattin Demirtas, of People’s Democratic Party (HDP) the voice of Kurdish majority contested from prison cell. Lodged in jail in 2016, after the coup, his party managed to garner 11.7% votes crossed the cut-off barrier and managed to clinch 67 seats in the parliament.

Presidential elections which were originally slated for November 3^rd, 2019, were preponed at the behest of Erdogan who opined that early election would resolve the ongoing “political and economic uncertainty”.  A referendum was held in Turkey in April 2017 to replace the existing parliamentary democracy to an executive presidency. Erdogan strongly rooted for an executive presidency claiming that the new system would make governance more efficient. While critics warned that it was an attempt to amass power, Erdogan pushed for referendum which passed the new constitutional with a slender margin of 51-49. The referendum solidified “one-man regime” by granting him powers to decree with a complete control over judiciary and executive becoming head of the state as well as head of government. Though the seats in the Grand National Assembly was increased from 550 to 600, its powers were greatly reduced. The post of prime minister was removed.

Erdogan’s Rise

From selling lemonade for extra money to a semi-professional footballer to becoming the most powerful President of “sick-man of Europe”, Turkey, Erdogan has come a long way. Erdogan’s political career as a conservative democrat received first major boost after he was elected as mayor of Istanbul in 1994 from Islamist Welfare Party. In 1997, on charges of inciting communal and religious hatred, Erdogan was awarded jail term of 10-months for reciting a religious verse. In 1998, terming Islamist Welfare party as a threat to secularism, government banned it and Erdogan was forced to give up mayorship. Looming political ban prevented him from contesting parliamentary elections.  In 2001, he formed AKP party and contested in the parliamentary elections of 2002 and entered the parliament with 34.3% vote and cobbled majority. With judicial ban, still in place, Erdogan couldn’t become Prime Minister, instead cofounder, Abdullah Gul occupied the coveted post. After a juidical concession, Erdogan got re-elected in a rescheduled election in February 2003 and took over Gul as Prime Minister. Since then AKP won three consecutive elections beginning from 2002, 2007, 2011 every time with an improved majority. With time, moderate AKP has become very popular with Turkish electorate.

Erdogan’s sweeping electoral success can be largely attributed to his ability to overturn the fortunes of a failing Turkish economy. In 2002, he inherited an economy that barely survived the Asian recession. He revived economy by introducing much needed reforms that brought huge investments that boosted tourism as well. Between 2002 to 2012 economy grew vigorously in real time, sovereign debt reduced, inflation stabilized, and country registered high GDP. Initially Erdogan stuck a progressive stance and expressed keenness to work to further negotiations with EU, which gave Turkey the status of candidacy for EU at Helsinki Summit in 1999. He even allied with Kurdish parties and Fetullah Gulen. Indeed, he announced partial amnesty to PKK, Kurdish Guerrilla Movement who surrendered to the government. Even, EU hailed his attempts. With his initial charm offensive, Erdogan wooed Gulenists who included educationalists, academicians, bureaucrats and Kurds. In the initial years of power, Erdogan worked with Gulenists to break links between the secular Kemalists and the military.

Having established a formidable electoral base, with economy failing to completely recover from the economic recession of 2008, Erdogan began to toe a hard-line approach. He shed his moderate approach. All his conservative attributes began to make a resurgent comeback. By 2013, alarmed by rising corruption, sympathisers of Gulenists, mostly bureaucrats began to investigate Erodgan’s family and loyalists on charges of cronyism. Riled Erdogan parted ways with Gulen in 2013, levelled false charges against him, forcing him to flee the country. Ever since he began to crackdown on protestors and opposition with an iron hand.

Erdogan used the unsuccessful coup bid in July 2016 to topple his regime for purging Gulenists and rest of the opposition. He cracked whip on sympathisers Gulenists and rest of the opposition. He dismissed thousands of government officials and military officials accusing them of complicity in the coup and subsequently filled those positions with his loyalists. He forced closure of several media agencies favourable to Gulenists and jailed over 120 journalists who questioned his authority. Following his ruthless suppression, Europe stalled all negotiations with Turkey regarding its membership to EU.

International Front

Till 2014, Erdogan strongly rooted for dismissal of Assad’s regime. Riled over American support to Kurdish forces fighting against IS in Syria Turkey began to have war of words with the US. American assistance revitalised Kurdish forces who broke ceasefire in 2015 and launched attacks on Turkey. Istanbul’s relations with US began to crumble. At this juncture, Russia intervened in the Syrian war and at the height of the Syria, Turkey shot Russian fighter jet for trespassing Turkish air space. The ties soon deteriorated with the assassination of Russian diplomat in Turkey. Under fire with Western forces, Erdogan instead of escalating situation with Russia moved close to Moscow. Erdogan quickly changed his stance favoured continuance of Assad’s regime and joined the Astana talks initiated by Russia along with Iran for peaceful resolution of Syrian crisis. To cement relations with Russia, Erdogan signed $2billion deal for the purchase of S-400 air defence missiles in December 2017.By March, Turkish forces violated Syrian sovereignty launched operations against the Democratic Union Party (YPD) and US-supported YPG and captured Afrin in North Syria. Earlier, Turkey giving fillip to its neo-colonial policies established three universities in the Kurdish region captured during Operation Euphrates Shield in 2016-17.

With its unpredictable actions and frequent tirades against west, Turkey is soon turning into a liability for the NATO. Erdogan has irked Germany and other European countries with his irresponsible comments during his campaign for referendum in 2017. But for its strategic geographical location, despite its frequent ruffling of feathers with the West, NATO is unable to severe links with Istanbul. In a bid to mend fences with Turkey, US offered to mediate and evolve a road map for withdrawal of Kurdish-forces supported by US from Manbij south east of Turkey in Syria. But hours after negotiations, Turkey accused US of deteriorating bilateral ties. Soon, US Congress passed a bill to stall sale of F-35 aircrafts to Turkey. Turkey’s turbulent relations with the West and Europe is creating an uncertainty in the region. Aside, Syrian issue, America is miffed with Turkey over American pastor being prisoned over charges of terrorism.

Currently, Turkey is having an uneasy trail of relations with several countries in its immediate and extended neighbourhood. Turkey was allies with Israel till 2010 when the Mavi Maramara incident rocked the relations. After President Netanyahu apologised for the incident in 2014, both countries reached a reconciliation. But relations turned sour after Trump’s decision on Jerusalem as capital of Israel that triggered violence in Gaza strip. Similarly, Turkey has been threatening Greece and Bulgaria of shipping thousands of refugees to their countries. It extended support to Republic of Macedonia over Macedonia naming dispute much to the disagreement of Greece. Aggravating tensions in the region, Erdogan refused to withdraw troops from Northern Cyprus which it has invaded in 1974 and continues to occupy 37% of Cyprus, (now named as Turkish Republic of North Cyprus (TRNC)). Like the Dragon, Turkey is now all set to send its first sea-drilling machine to find oil and natural gas in the Mediterranean region (infringing EEZ of other countries- Cyprus, Greece).

Turkey, which has grown suspicious of America following its unilateral approach towards Iran and Syria is now increasingly seeking to build bridges towards Eurasia. Turkey’s efforts to foster ties with Russia and its condemnation of Trump’s pulling out of Iran’s nuclear policy mirror its new foreign policy attributes. To this end, Turkey has revved up its trade ties with China with bilateral trade increasing several-fold under Erdogan’s regime. Rebuking, Western values, he expressed his preference for joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) over EU membership.

After the fall of Ottoman Empire, the founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, strived to carve out a nation from the ruins of the world war I on the foundations of secularism and democracy. He became president of the country in 1923 and remained in power till 1938. He thrusted the burden of protecting the country from the onslaughts of conservative and authoritarian forces with Turkish military. With a powerful military in charge of guarding the core ideals of the constitution, country witnessed several coups till to the turn of 20^th century. Owing to Kemal’s western-centric approach, Turkey joined CENTO, NATO in 1950s. But soon subsequent leaderships which perceived a regional isolation, tried to move away from the stranglehold of the West. Gradually with the ascent of Islamists, Turkey’s overtures to West weathered. After coming to power, Erdogan gradually tamed the military, consolidated his power and advanced a neo-Ottoman foreign policy. With his re-election, Erdogan has become the longest serving ruler of Turkey overtaking country’s founding father Kemal threatening to erode the Kemalist legacy.  By winning the referendum of 2017, he incorporated new changes that augured well with his authoritarian tendencies. He rewrote the basic tenets of constitution. Under the newly scripted rules, President can have two terms. With his absolutist approach he might as well win 2023 elections comfortably and thus can continue to preside over the country till 2028. The 64-year Erdogan now shares this unique distinction with President Xi Jinping who overriding the constitutional stipulations has become emperor for life time last year. With a similar legacy of being longest serving leader President Putin, can now be part of this elitist club of dominant authoritarian leaders of Eurasian region. With his Neo-Ottoman foreign policy, Erdogan joins the emerging cult of authoritarian leaders of Asia, vying to shift centres of power from West to East.

Besides, a shift in foreign policy approach, Erdogan, who now lacks majority might now have to heed to coalition partner, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, ultra-conservative Islamist to pass bills in Parliament. This would mark total annihilation of secularism and complete return of the country to conservative Islamism.

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Deep Sea Mining

Nature has been a source of incredible wealth. From times immemorial, mankind greedily plundered nature for material gains. Breaching yet another pristine frontier, countries are making plans to ransack deep blue seas. Termed as Deep- Sea mining (DSM), employing advanced technology, at breath-taking pace nations are vying to harvest nodules and rocks that constitutes the seabed. DSM entails extraction of minerals located 400 to 6000 metres below the sea level.

Almost 44 years ago, on July 4^th, 1974, CIA launched a covert sea operation with an aim of stealing Russian submarine, K-129 a ballistic nuclear missile carrier, almost 2500 km from north west of Hawaii, six years ago. To divert the attention of Russian spies and give the operation a deliberate spin, CIA under the garb of harvesting rocks in the seabed launched an operation-Project Azorian. In the run up to the operation, CIA sent scientists for conferences on Ocean mining and roped in billionaire inventor, Howard Hughes, to build a vessel for scientific exploration. The great PR strategy of CIA stuck chord with the US universities, that mulled introducing specific courses on deep sea mining. Even UN jumped in and offered to provide a rules-based approach to determine rights to ocean minerals. Outwardly, while the vessel was fitted with all the machinery needed for excavating the seabed, Hughes Glomar Explorer housed a monstrous capture vehicle with giant set of claws to retrieve the sub and keep it hidden. By July 30^th, away from the prying eyes of the World, Americans located the sub. But the capture vehicle suffered a damage while lifting the sub. The giant claw broke under immense strain midway and most of the sub slipped back. The team managed to recover only the front portion. Despite the difficulties and the huge costs involved in carrying out the project, American desperately wanted to steal the sub for obvious military reasons. To get hold of Russian nuclear missiles and to penetrate their naval communications, unmindful of the consequences, CIA went ahead with this cost prohibitive exercise. When CIS broke the details of the project after a year, mining companies who made extensive plans of mining seas were crestfallen and the stocks tumbled. But CIA’s success proved that with sophisticated engineering techniques and lavish funds DSM can be possible. Ever since, companies invested heavily in research expeditions to probe the sea bed for minerals.  

For the first time, scientists abroad, Royal Naval Ship, HMS Challenger found that deep sea bed contains huge mineral deposits. First dredging exercise revealed presence of nodules rich in manganese, nickel and iron in the ocean beds of Indian and Pacific Ocean. Soon scientists confirmed that a tonne of sea bed is 10 times richer in mineral content than mines on land. Independent investigations by different teams confirmed this fact who declared sea beds as treasure houses of minerals and rare earth elements (REE).

By 1960s, scientists floated the idea that oceans should be used for peaceful purposes and their mineral wealth should be shared equally by the humanity. While the issue of ocean mining hardly evinced any interest in countries then, extensive use of mobile phones, solar panels, batteries, wind vanes, electric cars and other gadgets increased demand for indispensable REE. Nations are now competing for the scarce REE’s in the earth’s core. Owing to the rapid scale of sophistication appetite for Lithium, Cobalt, Copper has surged to phenomenal levels. Pitched battles are witnessed between nations for the limited supply of Cobalt. Republic of Congo which currently has 60% of global resources has now become a den for corruption, human rights abuse. Responding to Amnesty International’s report that sought a solution for exploitative mining and alleged dominance of smuggling mafia in Congo, Michael Lodge, Chairman of ISA, International Seabed Authority called for a relook at deep sea mining. To streamline various activities related to sea mining, intergovernmental body, ISA, came into existence in 1994 with headquarters at Kingston. It formulates rules and regulations for mineral related activities in the international seabed region, area beyond the limits of jurisdiction of individual countries.

ISA, which has observer status to UN has divided the ocean bed into blocks and 29 exploration areas. Companies from 19 countries have purchased mineral prospecting licences for 15 years as of now. ISA proposed three types of mining- Polymetallic manganese nodules, Cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts and polymetallic sulphide mining at hydrothermal vents. For the first time, a venture Nautilus Minerals commenced its exploration in Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Papua New Guinea, Tonga and Fiji after negotiations with respective governments off the Bismarck sea. While the mining hasn’t started yet, all the preparations for rock breaking are going at frenetic pace. The stretch identified in the seabed is covered by hydrothermal vents, which are shelters for vast communities of extremely rare marine life like shrimps, snails and tubeworms. Use of gargantuan machinery during mining is bound to damage the marine habitat of the region, poverty-stricken countries lured by attraction of money have accepted the deal. Though the mining company has undermined the fears of residents whose lives and livelihoods are irretrievably linked with sea waters. Disturbed by the impact of the exploratory phase that led to sharp decline in sharks, citizens of Tonga, Papua New Guinea have launched protests and campaigns against DSM.

After Japan’s successful attempt to mine ore deposits in 2017, which included- Zinc, Copper, Gold and Lead off the coast of Okinawa close to hydrothermal vents, there is a global rush for DSM. Elucidating the impacts of such mad rush, a paper published in Harvard Environmental Law Review warned nations of the adverse impacts of DSM on environment, lives of indigenous people and the biodiversity of marine habitat.

Hydrothermal vents act as environmental sinks with microorganisms in the vicinity sequestering huge amounts of carbon and methane (Green House Gas). Recently researchers discovered over 300 animal species endemic to vents making each vent unique. They now hypothesize that perhaps life must have evolved from hydrothermal vents which can thrive even higher temperatures of upto 113C. Destruction of the vents might lead to release of sequestered methane triggering a doomsday climatic event. Latest scientific breakthroughs revealed that deep seas absorb the excess heat generated by GHGs. Oceans have been instrumental in mitigating the climatic change impacts.

DSM which involves use of heavy machinery that would chip, scrap and break the rocks. All these events invariably disturb the sea bed, generate large sediment plumes and discharge wastes into seas. Till now, mankind irreversibly damaged the oceans and seas through deep sea oil and gas extraction, discharge of wastes including nuclear wastes, dumping plastics, leakage of oils from vessels etc. Scientists claims unlike surfaces of Moon, Mars or Venus which were meticulously mapped, the invaluable diversity of marine life is largely unknown. Mariners are just beginning to understand the climatic role of hydrothermal vents. These geographical formations hold a key to unravel the secrets of evolution and adaptation of life of earth. At this juncture, dishevelling the deep-sea bed for commercial purposes may be counterproductive and tragic.

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Seychelles affirmation to work on Assumption Island Pact, should be music to India

In a major security breach in March 2018, details of India-Seychelles military agreement on Assumption Island leaked on internet. All the intricate details of the agreement, exact locations with maps appeared on Youtube triggering alarm. The leaked documents alleged that Seychelles government sold off Assumption Island to India. After the leak, Seychelles President Danny Faure clarified in the Parliament that land on Assumption Island is neither sold or leased to India. The leak bestowed credibility to informal reports of Seychellois opposition leader reluctance towards ratification of this bilateral agreement. Investigations  later pointed the leak which happened from Seychelles as handiwork of a government insider.

In response to China’s growing strategic penetration into Indian Ocean, Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) in 2015. Aside the strategic aspects, SAGAR envisions to increase maritime cooperation and cooperation on climate aspects, seeks to adhere and respect rule-based order and peaceful resolution of maritime issues.  Reinforcing India’s intent to build relations based on trust and friendship, Modi warmed up to Indian Ocean Island countries Seychelles and Mauritius. To enhance India’s strategic outreach, India signed foundation agreements for building necessary military infrastructure at Assumption Island of Seychelles and Agalega of Mauritius in March 2015. These two strategically located islands in Indian Ocean are very important to India. Assumption Island located north of Madagascar along the Mozambique Channel and close to Suez Canal lies forming the main channel for shipping between Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. Agalega is around 1000 km North East of Madagascar. Together these two islands can significantly enhance India’s ability to monitor foreign vessels in the region as India has commissioned a listening post at Madagascar in 2007.  The key objective for developing the joint military facility at Assumption Island is to ensure safe passage of Indian ships, to monitor Mozambique Channel and to thwart piracy and to checkmate Chinese encirclement.

In the $500 million foundation agreement with Seychelles India offered to build an air strip on Assumption Island for Seychelles Peoples Defence Forces (SPDF). India signed agreement with Seychelles during the Presidentship of James Michel. Unfortunately, during his tenure, due to inefficiency of Seychelles bureaucracy, the agreement couldn’t be ratified in the Parliament. In October 2016, elections, ruling party lost the elections and Danny Faure took over as President. Unlike Executive Presidentship, Parliament plays a significant role and the opposition coalition that majority in the Parliament called the shots. In October 2017, when the opposition sought a relook at the agreement, India rushed foreign secretary, Jaishankar Subramanyam to Seychelles. Addressing the concerns of Seychellois, India renegotiated the deal and finally both countries signed renegotiated deal in January 2018 with new terms. It included cooperation in anti-piracy operations, search and rescue operations, enhanced Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) surveillance and protection of EEZ. The final deal even limited India’s access for 20-year term, included a promise of never using the port for war purposes, and allowing third country to use these facilities. Inking the pact, President Faure expressed faith in Indian friendship. Soon, President pushed the agreement for ratification when trouble brewed in the form of internet leaks and Parliament rejected the ratification. Opposition declared that project is dead now. This has dented India’s hopes of strengthening its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

India hasn’t lost hope and made every effort to put the deal back on track. The Assumption Island agreement has become casualty of domestic power struggles. India has courted leader of Opposition coalition, Indian origin politician-Wavel John Charles Ramkalawan who vehemently objected ratification of the deal. Speaking about “Seychelles of my dreams” at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi, in March, he expressed gratitude to India for its magnanimity and said, “Whenever we ask India for help, it doesn’t look at us as high-income country. Europe would tell us, you are high-income group go and sort it for yourself…..We consider India as the main partner…India has helped us with hydrological maps and not sold to us, but given to us as gifts. And, we want the ties to go higher”. He even attended the meeting of Parliamentarians of Indian origin. While all his statements had no trace of aversion towards India, China’s role in the whole episode can’t be overlooked.

Recognising the strategic importance of Seychelles, China which had its eyes on the Indian Ocean island, obtained contracts to build its infrastructure since 2000. It built Supreme court, national assembly, other law institutes, academic institutes, roads and buildings in the island and signed a defence pact in 2004. By 2011, Beijing began negotiations for setting up naval base as well. Surprisingly, UPA government at that time hardly made any noise about these developments and denied Beijing’s efforts of clinching any agreements for port access in Indian Ocean. The Defence Ministry said that it didn’t see anything wrong with China setting up a military base in Seychelles, since this appeared to be part of Beijing’s efforts to combat piracy in the Indian Ocean Region- as reported by the Stratfor World View. New Delhi’s denial and inability to fathom Beijing’s expansionist ambitions caught it unawares even as China penetrated its backyard.

While China’s plans of setting naval access to Seychelles island failed, it adroitly clinched an agreement with Djibouti to set up its first foreign base. After China acquired Djibouti India intensified efforts for Assumption Island agreement. Ever since 2011, there has been marked increase in flow of Chinese tourists to Seychelles. From the turn of this century, China markedly escalated ties with countries in India’s immediate and extended neighbourhood. Domestic opposition to Assumption Island in part can be attributed to China’s growing indulgence in Seychelles. Also, Assumption Island is close to Aldabra atoll, a UNESCO World Heritage Site and home to World’s largest population of Tortoise and hence environmentalists opposed the agreement. In any case a covert Chinese hand can’t be overruled. Besides, Seychelles is among the most popular tourist destination among the Westerners and it is believed that locals don’t want to make the island a ground for great India-China power rivalry.

India’s traditional links with Indian Ocean Islands dates back to several centuries old with Indian Diaspora establishing and strengthening this connect. Indian Diaspora constitute 10% of Seychelles 1,00,000 population. India established diplomatic relations with Seychelles a former French-British colony in 1976. Back bone of the bilateral ties has been strong defence cooperation with New Delhi providing training and equipment to their defence forces. Seychelles is badly afflicted by piracy. To combat piracy, India gifted two patrol boats PS Topaz and PS Constant in 2005 and 2014 respectively, a Dornier air craft DO-228 and extensively participated in the anti-piracy mission. In 2016, India gifted fast interceptor boat PB Hermes. In 2015, Modi inaugurated six coastal radar surveillance systems for better coastal security. In 1980’s several coup attempts were made against President Rene of Seychelles. Indian Navy launched Operation Flowers of Blooming in 1986 and dispatched INS Vindhyagiri to Victoria after receiving first hand intelligence report of coup by Defence Minister. Indian Vessel remained at the port on the pretext of repair for two months and averted the coup. In another instance when President Rene was away from Seychelles for attending Non-Aligned Conference at Harare. Rajiv Gandhi who was at the conference, after learning about the attempts to unseat President from power, lent his Air Force One to reach Seychelles in time.  India has thus been major security provider to Indian Ocean Islands by thwarting coups be it in Seychelles or Maldives.  To strengthen the traditional links between the countries in the Indian Ocean Region, India even constituted IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association) which includes Seychelles and Mauritius. While China is making several attempts to woo these countries through financial and economic deals, India enjoys a special camaraderie. For all its traditional connect, while there shouldn’t be any opposition to Indian projects, several external factors including lure for investments have made things difficult for New Delhi.

Precisely for these reason, the six-day long visit of Seychelles President Danny Antonie Rollen Faure on June 22^nd grabbed lot of attention. India hosted Faure at four cities-Ahmedabad, New Delhi, Panaji and Dehradun.  Weeks ahead of his visit Faure clarified that he will not forward the Assumption Island agreement for ratification before Parliament. He added that the agreement will not be on the agenda of the bilateral talks. Despite this set back, India which has a sustaining defence cooperation with the island extended traditional red-carpet welcome to Faure. Prime Minister Modi and Faure held bilateral talks and signed six agreements. These include white shipping agreement, twinning agreement between Panaji and Victoria, Cybersecurity pact, exchange between foreign service Institute of India and Seychelles foreign exchanges as part of cultural exchange. India has also extended $100 million credit line and gifted second Dornier Aircraft promised in 2015. The wide array of agreements in various fields vouched India’s interest in expanding the scope of cooperation with Seychelles.

Notwithstanding, Faure’s Press statement of June 4^th when he announced that Seychelles would develop the military facilities on its own, both leaders held frank talks. Addressing Press Conference after conclusion of talks Modi said, “We have agreed to work on the Assumption Island project based on each other’s rights”. Faure responded, “We are equally engaged and will continue to work together bearing each other’s interests in mind”. Faure’s reassuring statement and formidable interest to engage with India despite domestic political turbulence has ignited new hopes of reviving the agreement.

Recent geo-political developments including India’s proactive diplomacy suggest a possibility of trilateral arrangement between India-France and Seychelles for refurbishing the old air strip and developing allied military facilities at Assumption Island. During President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to India in March, India cemented partnership with the country  and  signed 14 agreements including an extensive maritime cooperation. In every likelihood, involvement of France in Assumption Island project, must be reassuring to former French Colony. Meanwhile, India should make efforts to reach out to Seychelles leaders as well.

India has on its part, has left no stone unturned promising complete support to Seychelles in dealing with maritime challenges and strengthening its defence capabilities. Faure’s affirmative declaration on Assumption Island, a day after Indian Ocean Nation cancellation of the pact is music to India which aspires to develop Joint naval facility to counter burgeoning Chinese scrutinization in Indian Ocean Region (IOR). 

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Is trivialisation of surgical strikes justified?

In September 2016, Modi government announced that Indian Army has carried out surgical strikes against the terror camps abutting the LoC in the PoK region. Soon, Army confirmed the announcement declaring that a team of meticulously trained men successfully launched attacks and returned safely without any loss of limb or life. In unequivocal terms hailed the operation as one of its kind carried out by Indian Army. Indians celebrated India Army's victory and reposed great faith in the noble institution.

Losing no time, Pakistan government denied Indian claims and giving boost to Islamabad's charges, Opposition questioned the veracity of the strikes and even demanded proof. Soon cynics joined the brigade. Congress party contested the strikes and argued that such strikes were conducted during their regime. But they didn't announce them. Enthusiastic RTI activists soon sought the details of previous operations if any. To their surprise there were none.

Reluctant to release any video as proof government simply quashed opposition's doubts and took immense pride in the strikes carried across the border. Despite pressure from opposition, government refused to share any proof of strikes. With elections around the corner, as a tough message to neighbouring Pakistan and token of its commitment to national security, BJP declared this operation as its achievement like the Indian Congress which revelled in the success of 1971 Bangladesh war. 

But yesterday both Republic and Times Now released eight-minute long video of the strikes, a day after Saifuddin Soz, Pro-Pakistani Congress leader who batted for independence of Kashmir released a book and termed the strikes as farzical (false). Adding weight to these allegations, disgruntled former BJP cabinet Minister Arun Shourie questioned the veracity of strikes. But after the video was out, instead of issuing an apology to Indian Army, Congress Party gave ugly-twist to the whole issue. It changed the narrative, launched a scathing attack on BJP party for using Indian Army's courage and valour for its political gains and levelled baseless allegations. It raised the issue of OROP, insufficient ammunition reserves, wearing equipment, GST on goods sold in Army canteen and several other issues. While it has smartly deflected topic, the vacuous arguments, baseless allegations reeks of sheer political opportunism. In his anxiety to prove Congress as holier than thou, Congress spokesperson Surjewala, exonerated the party of its decade long indecisiveness and corruption that irreversibly dented the defence preparedness of the forces. 

But how can Indians and defence personnel ever forget the blistering attack of Khoon ki dalali and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal despicable argument of seeking authentic proof of strike and similar disgusting remarks from other opposition heavy weights. These uncharitable rants and unpalatable remarks over strikes besides exposing the deep rifts within the Indian political dispensation devitalises the morale of Indian Army. While criticism and trading of charges are part and parcel of a vibrant multi-party democracy, issues of national security which are inviolable and these issues should be kept beyond the purview of pernicious political mudslinging. Clearly, the opposition blinded by pathetic hatred towards Modi is now plumbing new lows by trivialising issues of national security.

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