Seychelles affirmation to work on Assumption Island Pact, should be music to India

In a major security breach in March 2018, details of India-Seychelles military agreement on Assumption Island leaked on internet. All the intricate details of the agreement, exact locations with maps appeared on Youtube triggering alarm. The leaked documents alleged that Seychelles government sold off Assumption Island to India. After the leak, Seychelles President Danny Faure clarified in the Parliament that land on Assumption Island is neither sold or leased to India. The leak bestowed credibility to informal reports of Seychellois opposition leader reluctance towards ratification of this bilateral agreement. Investigations  later pointed the leak which happened from Seychelles as handiwork of a government insider.

In response to China’s growing strategic penetration into Indian Ocean, Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) in 2015. Aside the strategic aspects, SAGAR envisions to increase maritime cooperation and cooperation on climate aspects, seeks to adhere and respect rule-based order and peaceful resolution of maritime issues.  Reinforcing India’s intent to build relations based on trust and friendship, Modi warmed up to Indian Ocean Island countries Seychelles and Mauritius. To enhance India’s strategic outreach, India signed foundation agreements for building necessary military infrastructure at Assumption Island of Seychelles and Agalega of Mauritius in March 2015. These two strategically located islands in Indian Ocean are very important to India. Assumption Island located north of Madagascar along the Mozambique Channel and close to Suez Canal lies forming the main channel for shipping between Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. Agalega is around 1000 km North East of Madagascar. Together these two islands can significantly enhance India’s ability to monitor foreign vessels in the region as India has commissioned a listening post at Madagascar in 2007.  The key objective for developing the joint military facility at Assumption Island is to ensure safe passage of Indian ships, to monitor Mozambique Channel and to thwart piracy and to checkmate Chinese encirclement.

In the $500 million foundation agreement with Seychelles India offered to build an air strip on Assumption Island for Seychelles Peoples Defence Forces (SPDF). India signed agreement with Seychelles during the Presidentship of James Michel. Unfortunately, during his tenure, due to inefficiency of Seychelles bureaucracy, the agreement couldn’t be ratified in the Parliament. In October 2016, elections, ruling party lost the elections and Danny Faure took over as President. Unlike Executive Presidentship, Parliament plays a significant role and the opposition coalition that majority in the Parliament called the shots. In October 2017, when the opposition sought a relook at the agreement, India rushed foreign secretary, Jaishankar Subramanyam to Seychelles. Addressing the concerns of Seychellois, India renegotiated the deal and finally both countries signed renegotiated deal in January 2018 with new terms. It included cooperation in anti-piracy operations, search and rescue operations, enhanced Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) surveillance and protection of EEZ. The final deal even limited India’s access for 20-year term, included a promise of never using the port for war purposes, and allowing third country to use these facilities. Inking the pact, President Faure expressed faith in Indian friendship. Soon, President pushed the agreement for ratification when trouble brewed in the form of internet leaks and Parliament rejected the ratification. Opposition declared that project is dead now. This has dented India’s hopes of strengthening its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

India hasn’t lost hope and made every effort to put the deal back on track. The Assumption Island agreement has become casualty of domestic power struggles. India has courted leader of Opposition coalition, Indian origin politician-Wavel John Charles Ramkalawan who vehemently objected ratification of the deal. Speaking about “Seychelles of my dreams” at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi, in March, he expressed gratitude to India for its magnanimity and said, “Whenever we ask India for help, it doesn’t look at us as high-income country. Europe would tell us, you are high-income group go and sort it for yourself…..We consider India as the main partner…India has helped us with hydrological maps and not sold to us, but given to us as gifts. And, we want the ties to go higher”. He even attended the meeting of Parliamentarians of Indian origin. While all his statements had no trace of aversion towards India, China’s role in the whole episode can’t be overlooked.

Recognising the strategic importance of Seychelles, China which had its eyes on the Indian Ocean island, obtained contracts to build its infrastructure since 2000. It built Supreme court, national assembly, other law institutes, academic institutes, roads and buildings in the island and signed a defence pact in 2004. By 2011, Beijing began negotiations for setting up naval base as well. Surprisingly, UPA government at that time hardly made any noise about these developments and denied Beijing’s efforts of clinching any agreements for port access in Indian Ocean. The Defence Ministry said that it didn’t see anything wrong with China setting up a military base in Seychelles, since this appeared to be part of Beijing’s efforts to combat piracy in the Indian Ocean Region- as reported by the Stratfor World View. New Delhi’s denial and inability to fathom Beijing’s expansionist ambitions caught it unawares even as China penetrated its backyard.

While China’s plans of setting naval access to Seychelles island failed, it adroitly clinched an agreement with Djibouti to set up its first foreign base. After China acquired Djibouti India intensified efforts for Assumption Island agreement. Ever since 2011, there has been marked increase in flow of Chinese tourists to Seychelles. From the turn of this century, China markedly escalated ties with countries in India’s immediate and extended neighbourhood. Domestic opposition to Assumption Island in part can be attributed to China’s growing indulgence in Seychelles. Also, Assumption Island is close to Aldabra atoll, a UNESCO World Heritage Site and home to World’s largest population of Tortoise and hence environmentalists opposed the agreement. In any case a covert Chinese hand can’t be overruled. Besides, Seychelles is among the most popular tourist destination among the Westerners and it is believed that locals don’t want to make the island a ground for great India-China power rivalry.

India’s traditional links with Indian Ocean Islands dates back to several centuries old with Indian Diaspora establishing and strengthening this connect. Indian Diaspora constitute 10% of Seychelles 1,00,000 population. India established diplomatic relations with Seychelles a former French-British colony in 1976. Back bone of the bilateral ties has been strong defence cooperation with New Delhi providing training and equipment to their defence forces. Seychelles is badly afflicted by piracy. To combat piracy, India gifted two patrol boats PS Topaz and PS Constant in 2005 and 2014 respectively, a Dornier air craft DO-228 and extensively participated in the anti-piracy mission. In 2016, India gifted fast interceptor boat PB Hermes. In 2015, Modi inaugurated six coastal radar surveillance systems for better coastal security. In 1980’s several coup attempts were made against President Rene of Seychelles. Indian Navy launched Operation Flowers of Blooming in 1986 and dispatched INS Vindhyagiri to Victoria after receiving first hand intelligence report of coup by Defence Minister. Indian Vessel remained at the port on the pretext of repair for two months and averted the coup. In another instance when President Rene was away from Seychelles for attending Non-Aligned Conference at Harare. Rajiv Gandhi who was at the conference, after learning about the attempts to unseat President from power, lent his Air Force One to reach Seychelles in time.  India has thus been major security provider to Indian Ocean Islands by thwarting coups be it in Seychelles or Maldives.  To strengthen the traditional links between the countries in the Indian Ocean Region, India even constituted IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association) which includes Seychelles and Mauritius. While China is making several attempts to woo these countries through financial and economic deals, India enjoys a special camaraderie. For all its traditional connect, while there shouldn’t be any opposition to Indian projects, several external factors including lure for investments have made things difficult for New Delhi.

Precisely for these reason, the six-day long visit of Seychelles President Danny Antonie Rollen Faure on June 22^nd grabbed lot of attention. India hosted Faure at four cities-Ahmedabad, New Delhi, Panaji and Dehradun.  Weeks ahead of his visit Faure clarified that he will not forward the Assumption Island agreement for ratification before Parliament. He added that the agreement will not be on the agenda of the bilateral talks. Despite this set back, India which has a sustaining defence cooperation with the island extended traditional red-carpet welcome to Faure. Prime Minister Modi and Faure held bilateral talks and signed six agreements. These include white shipping agreement, twinning agreement between Panaji and Victoria, Cybersecurity pact, exchange between foreign service Institute of India and Seychelles foreign exchanges as part of cultural exchange. India has also extended $100 million credit line and gifted second Dornier Aircraft promised in 2015. The wide array of agreements in various fields vouched India’s interest in expanding the scope of cooperation with Seychelles.

Notwithstanding, Faure’s Press statement of June 4^th when he announced that Seychelles would develop the military facilities on its own, both leaders held frank talks. Addressing Press Conference after conclusion of talks Modi said, “We have agreed to work on the Assumption Island project based on each other’s rights”. Faure responded, “We are equally engaged and will continue to work together bearing each other’s interests in mind”. Faure’s reassuring statement and formidable interest to engage with India despite domestic political turbulence has ignited new hopes of reviving the agreement.

Recent geo-political developments including India’s proactive diplomacy suggest a possibility of trilateral arrangement between India-France and Seychelles for refurbishing the old air strip and developing allied military facilities at Assumption Island. During President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to India in March, India cemented partnership with the country  and  signed 14 agreements including an extensive maritime cooperation. In every likelihood, involvement of France in Assumption Island project, must be reassuring to former French Colony. Meanwhile, India should make efforts to reach out to Seychelles leaders as well.

India has on its part, has left no stone unturned promising complete support to Seychelles in dealing with maritime challenges and strengthening its defence capabilities. Faure’s affirmative declaration on Assumption Island, a day after Indian Ocean Nation cancellation of the pact is music to India which aspires to develop Joint naval facility to counter burgeoning Chinese scrutinization in Indian Ocean Region (IOR). 

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