Friday 24 July 2015

Quirky U-turns and Frenzied provocations: The Gambit of Pakistan


Signalling resumption of bilateral talks Prime Minister Modi reached out to his counterpart Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan along the sidelines of SCO meet at Ufa, Russia. The dialogue initiated by the Indian side ended more than 11-month stalemate with Pakistan. Observers on both sides touted this meet as “ice-breaking” since it was followed by an impromptu joint statement read by the foreign secretaries of two countries, a gesture which raised hopes on both sides. The joint statement deliberately avoided a mention of Kashmir issue and instead it was decided that National Security Advisor (NSA)s of the both countries will discuss all issues connected to terrorism.  The other contents included early meetings of DG BSF and DG Pakistan Rangers, release of fishermen in each other’s custody along with their boats within 15days, mechanism to facilitate religious tourism and both sides agreed to discuss ways and means to expedite the Mumbai trials case which includes additional information like providing voice samples. This statement was welcomed by both the sides initially. Hence the momentum of the dialogue assumed greater significance.

The bilateral meet was followed by welcoming of India and Pakistan as full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), another platform where both nations can work together towards economic growth. The deliberate avoidance of Kashmir and replacing it with discussions on all issues related to terrorism infuriated Pakistan. Within 24 hrs of the meet Sartaz Aziz, National Security Advisor of Pakistan issued a terse statement, backtracking on all the issues of the joint statement. This significant discordant U-turn dampened the spirit of dialogue completely. All the hopes of revival were dashed as he pronounced that no dialogue can be possible without Kashmir issue on agenda, he quashed the idea of voice samples, sought more evidence from India and further extended Iftar dinner invitation to separatists. A quick turn of events soon ensued whereby Pakistan resorted to 11 major incursions in 5 days. India in continuance with the spirit of friendship reached out to its neighbour in spite of the fateful killing of BSF jawan during the cross fire opened by Pakistan on the day of bilateral talks.

While this is not the first instance of Pakistan transgressing on its promise, it is high time that India recalibrates its foreign policy strategy towards Pakistan. Flip-flops have been the backbone of Pakistan diplomacy. Indian civilian government unlike the Pakistan’s army controlled regime rooted in robust perfidy made sincere attempts to restore peace. But with a change in the leadership at helm of affairs India’s engagement process with Pakistan impregnated with political peace fantasies failed to accomplish a strategic breakthrough. Over the past seven decades while overwhelming optimism was meted out by enthusiastic peace talks cross border violations were followed by long dud in bilateral engagement. This process of engagement and disengagement followed by the Indian side has failed to make any gains. Indian position was thus marred by periods of intermittent dialogue and diplomatic stalemate.

The oft experienced pattern of quick U-turns has been the symbolic approach of our eastern neighbours too who incessantly barge into the Indian side along the LAC. But systematic incursions of China failed to puncture Indian weariness. In fact India has been holding regular peace talks with Chinese officials unfailingly. It is time that Indian policy makers follow similar strategy towards Pakistan. After assuming power the NDA government signalled forces to retaliate aggressively on ground. This pre-emptive approach towards Pakistan should be backed by regular dialogue. India needs to understand that war and peace can together and way forward can be consistent engagement.

While the Pakistan’s witch-craft theories and sinister plots continue to make rounds it is time that India should strategically tackle the combined Sino-Pakistan attack. China having mastered the art of diplomacy recently conferred full membership to India and China to take a moral high ground of its affability towards both nations. India should take a leaf out of Chinese foreign policy strategy. During Modi’s recent visit to China he has extended a high profile electrifying reception and trade agreements worth $20 billion were signed.  When Modi during the course of bilateral talks appealed Beijing to resolve the border issue which has been a bone of contention, Chinese government decided to remain silent.  Instead China reckoned Modi’s visit as most successful visit and hasn’t shied away from making ignominious attacks on India. Further it has vetoed India’s move on Lakhvi at the UN. In spite of India expressing its serious concerns about the proposed China-Pak economic corridor running through Pok with President Xi nothing much has changed. Just as the covert bhaichara displayed by China has been a major photo-op, India should understand the importance of “iron fist in velvet gloves”.

Both Pakistan and China are greedy nations and are hell bent on usurping strategic Indian provinces. While Pakistan wants to confiscate PoK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) and a portion of Kashmir valley, China has its eyes on Aksai Chin and Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh. The duo have constructively formulated an India containment policy and inflicted significant damages. Besides, China has been instigating the combined front of the NE militants across the Myanmar border to wreak havoc in the eastern states. Hence India’s pragmatic two-pronged policy should now work towards revving up diplomatic and defence capabilities. Besides India must now bolster its image on the global platform and reincarnate itself as an assertive nation. This must definitely include a strategy where India continues to work in close tandem with South East Asian Nations.

As a propitious beginning to the new strategy notwithstanding the constant flare-ups across the borders, Indian foreign secretary has ruled out that war is not an option. He reiterated that India will give “effective and forceful” reply to the unprovoked firing and cross border killings. While the saboteurs might craftily hitch new plans to derail the dialogue process through repeated violations India must not relent and continue to engage with Pakistan. This strategy will give India enough room to manoeuvre and claim that in spite of its unstinted commitment towards peace through dialogue Pakistan has been the perpetrator.

Modi government seems to have realised the game plan of Pakistan and China. Determined to resolve the border issue Modi has extended a friendly hand to Pakistan by inviting him to his swearing-in ceremony and opened his innings as a Prime Minister with diplomatic dialogues. But Pakistan habituated to border violations and pushing infiltrators was back to its old habits.  In the meanwhile, NDA government promptly sent tough messages across the border by counteracting every unprovoked firing strongly.  Unfortunately talks between the two countries were called off in August 2014 as the foreign secretary of Pakistan wanted to hold dialogue with Hurriyat leaders in the position of stake holder of Kashmir. After 11 months India has reached out to Pakistan for diplomatic talks at Ufa. The new reformulated strategy towards Pakistan for now encompasses diplomatic dialogue and an aggressive fight on ground. The robust plan designed by Narendra Modi, Ajit Doval and Manohar Parrikar to mitigate Pakistani tactics has just begun and its stringent implementation might pave way for a major break-through.
 
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