Prime Minister Modi‘s eight day long six- nation tour to Central Asian Republics (CAR) which
includes participation in 7th BRICS Summit and 15th Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation Meet (SCO) at Ufa in Russia will begin on July 6th. This will be first ever
visit by an Indian Prime Minister to all the five CARs since their independence
in 1991. Earlier Prime Minister Jawaharlal visited all these nations in 1955 by
train on a day 10 long tour when these nations were part of former Soviet
Union. Visit to these five CARs- Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan referred to as ‘Stans’ would boost up the 12-point
‘Connect Central Asia’ policy initiated in 2012. The policy which was high on
rhetoric could hardly make any significant progress in revamping ties with CAR.
Modi’s key focus during the visit would be on enhancing
strategic, economic and energy ties with these nations. All these five nations
that form the crux of Eurasia are Muslim majority countries and richly endowed
with natural resources like oil, natural gas besides huge reserves of untapped
mineral wealth like Uranium. But these nations are individually and collectively
much weaker than their neighbouring nations China and Russia. These nations
which are superficially stable are inherently very fragile due to poor nation
building. They lack robust political institutions and are devoid of mechanisms
of periodical transfer of power and still economically dependent on Russia. Major
economies with substantial hold in this region in order are Russia, China and
the US.
While Russian influence over these nations have come down
China has gained its strategic foot hold in these nations. The dependence on
Russia has been the outcome of their seven decade long association with it.
Moreover with significant Russia origin population in the region and dependence
on remittances of huge number of people working in Russia it has substantial
influence over the region. Further with its land locked geographical status and
poor connectivity CAR’s greatly rely on Russia for transit. In spite of CARs
eagerness to breakout of Russia’s influence they can barely afford it.
In 2013 President Xi Jinping on his 10 day long tour to CARs
extended huge financial bourses of $33 billion in form of soft loans. With an
eye on these proximate energy reserves market China is inching forward to draw
these nations into its fold. China has now increased its engagement with these
countries through trade, energy and military agreements besides roping them
under the banner of SCO (all four ‘Stans’ other than Turkmenistan). CARs are in
fact wary of this Asian economic super power for its strangling hold on
Xinjiang province which was usurped nonchalantly. Moreover the recent steadfast
expansionist approach and muscle flexing of China in the South China Sea
reinforced CARs historical suspicions of its hegemonic attitude towards weaker
nations.
After the 9/11 incident the US strategically began
establishing bases in this region but was forced to pull out from this region
due to the combined pressure of CARs and Russia. Now the simmering Ukraine
crisis has reinvigorated US interests in this region again. The US and
especially President Obama wanted to extricate CARs from the sphere of
influence of Russia and wanted to integrate them with Afghanistan and South
Asia. While CAR welcomes the presence of US to check the overtures of Russia
and China they are wary of its dubious intentions and its proclivity towards
periodic change of power and curtailing human rights violations. The other
minor players in this region besides the big three are Japan, Europe, Turkey,
Iran, Pakistan and India.
Analysts believe that Modi’s upcoming visit would be a “game
changer” as India has started realising the need to engage with extended
neighbourhood as a part of its larger geostrategic proposition. The central
theme of India’s dynamic foreign policy of Modi government has been to counter
the towering influence of China and bolster India’s presence on the
international platform.
Historically India had extensive connections with CAR but
India never posed any threat to the territorial integrity of these countries.
Hence these nations are attracted to India and moreover India’s long standing friendship
with Soviet Union too has reinforced their interest in India. But India
couldn’t connect with CARs meaningfully due to lack of reliable connectivity
which hindered trade and people to people linkages. Even Indian private sector
was least enamoured by CAR due to poor air connectivity, difficulty in
obtaining Visas and unconducive market conditions. Hence relations with these
nations began to decline. But Central Asia is great importance to India for its
strategic position, energy resources and to counter terrorism.
In his whirlwind tour Modi’s first stop over is at Uzbekistan
followed by Kazakhstan. He will then leave for Russia to attend the
back-to-back summits of BRICS and SCO. From Russia he will visit Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan. In his rather tightly packed schedule Modi would hardly spend
24 hours in each of these countries. In
Uzbekistan, Modi will interact with Indologists, students learning Hindi and
other members of Indian community. Modi
will pay tributes to Indian Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Sastry, who lost his
life at Tashkent. Key agreements to enhance trade and economic ties will be
inked. In Kazakhstan, Prime Minister will address students of Nazabayev
University and inaugurate the India-Kazakhastan Centre for Excellence in
Information and Communication Technology where India’s super computer PARAM was
stationed. In Turkmenistan Modi will inaugurate a statue of Mahatma Gandhi and
Centre for Yoga and Traditional Medicine. Besides several agreements related to
tourism, trade, space, fertilisers, defence, science and technology will be
signed. In Kyrgyzstan Modi will inaugurate Tele-Medicine links aimed at boosting
Medical tourism. In Tajikistan Modi will have detailed interactions with his counterpart
for strengthening defence cooperation. India has its lone military base at
Ayeni in Tajikistan.
At the BRICS summit India would be closely looking forward to
enhance economic ties with other stake holders. With the New Development Bank
of BRICS started functioning the issues like disbursal of loans for various
developmental activities will be widely discussed. India and Pakistan are
presently observers in SCO. During the current SCO summit process of elevation
of both nations to members is expected. Officials are predicting that Modi will
have a chance of meeting Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at this summit. SCO
currently has six members- China, Russia and four stans other than Turkmenistan
Another key issue that will surface during the discussions
with leaders of CAR will be growing threat of ISIS. Since all the CARs have sizeable Muslim
population, leaders are particularly worried with reports indicating that their
youth are increasingly drawn towards ISIS. With ISIS spreading its tentacles to
Pakistan Prime Minister Modi is expected to initiate talks on counter-terror
technology, training forces and counter radicalism. With the withdrawal of NATO
forces from Afghanistan its stability has become an issue of grave concern to
India and CAR as well. Moreover the smart political collusions of Pakistan and
China with Afghanistan to keep India out began to bother India. With Pakistan
posing greater encumbrance to India by curtailing connectivity to Afghanistan,
India’s relations with CAR assumes greater significance.
Another major issue that will be discussed is the issue of
connectivity. While the border of Tajikistan is just 20 km away from the border
of the Greater Kashmir, connectivity with these countries is poor. Realising
the urgent need for improving connectivity attempt is made by nations through
the ambitious 5600 km long North South Transport Corridor (NSTC). It aims at
moving freight from India, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia via sea, rail and road.
The main objective has been to increase trade connectivity between Mumbai,
Moscow, Tehran, Baku, Bandar Abbas, Astrakhan, Bandar Anzali. Dry runs along two
routes were carried in 2014. Through Chabahar port which India leased from Iran
India hopes to link up to this corridor. If once NSTC gets started India can
even think of catching up with China. During this visit India is going to speed
up the TAPI (Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan and India) a gas pipe line
planned to meet India’s energy needs and whose work is going on at a slow pace.
Despite India’s historical, cultural and civilization links
with CARs it grossly failed in taking advantage of these connections. India’s
record of highest level of contacts and visits to these nations has been
abysmally low. Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao visited Turkmenistan and
Kyrgyzstan in 1995. Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited Tajikistan in 2003. Man Mohan
Singh visited Uzbekistan in 2006 and Kazakhstan in 2011.
With decline of Russia’s economic growth and fall of rouble
there has been significant decline of remittances from Russia to CAR. Uzbekistan
and Tajikistan are hard hit. With the US pulling its troops from Afghanistan it
has lost interest in CAR. Hence these nations are looking for strategic
alliances and economic engagement. India should seize this opportunity and make
potential investments and enhance trade ties with CARs.
Modi’s meticulous foreign policy is now keenly watched by
observers as the outcomes of the engagements with these nations can change the
spectre of the geopolitics. Further the sceptical west is keenly interested in
following the expected elevation of India’s observer status to full membership
at SCO which might have implications on the Sino-Pakistan relationship.
Besides, India’s friendly participation in SCO signals its intentions of work
closely with China at different forums in spite of their insidious territorial
disputes.
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